Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[Puggit]

Russians are struggling in Ukraine because they're fighting other Russians, who are as strong as them...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/152736659...

[Jenny Tailor]

Puggit said:

Russians are struggling in Ukraine because they're fighting other Russians, who are as strong as them...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/152736659...

As per that ex Russian Colonel.
A conscripted army - is fighting a very motivated army who are fighting for the very survival of their country.


IMO - The longer that this goes on - and the west continue to provide high tech weaponry - I can see Ukraine taking some Russian territory. It could be renamed "Putinfailure" or some other reminder to future generations.

[stongle]

take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:

Love the news stories today.. Like James Cameron flick.

Russia has deployed several of their terminator BMP-T units and separately they claim to have deployed a laser (in a 40watt range)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61508922

The chap even looks like arnie.

Is the image related to the news story? The caption says Ukranian soldier, and he looks to be holding a G36 with additions that would make the badly modified cars thread. And I'm a tad suspicious the Russians can build a laser weapon a 50th of the size the Israelis can.

[eharding]

stongle said:

The caption says Ukranian soldier, and he looks to be holding a G36 with additions that would make the badly modified cars thread.

It's a Lithuanian ЕDМ4S jammer, the Ukrainians bought some late last year.

[Steamer]

stongle said:

take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:

Love the news stories today.. Like James Cameron flick.

Russia has deployed several of their terminator BMP-T units and separately they claim to have deployed a laser (in a 40watt range)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61508922

The chap even looks like arnie.

Is the image related to the news story? The caption says Ukranian soldier, and he looks to be holding a G36 with additions that would make the badly modified cars thread. And I'm a tad suspicious the Russians can build a laser weapon a 50th of the size the Israelis can.

I think what maybe be missing is the word 'pens'...

..Russians have used 'laser Pens' on the battle (special operation) in Ukraine

[vonuber]

Looks like there are still some troops in the steelworks in Mariupol.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ut92l9/k...

[hidetheelephants]

TTmonkey said:

bloomen said:

Since Russia is now saying the Black Sea export blockades will stay in place unless sanctions are reviewed, I wonder where regional grimness ends and global grimness begins.

Weirdly enough the countries that will suffer the most likely offer the most support to Russia. I wonder whether that'll last.

Sometimes the UN could do with being fully weaponised.

Interesting interview on the news channel earlier with The prime minister of Sri Lanka.
They’ve already had a lot of unrest and things are looking very gloomy.
He was saying that it wasn’t just a case that they are not receiving the wheat they buy from Ukraine and Russia, he said the major issue was they had not received any of their normal deliveries of fertiliser this year. None.

So the local harvest, which is due in August, is going to exacerbate the issue of food shortages because the local yields will be heavily impacted.

Considering the issues the country already has this is going to be a disaster. He actually advised that foreign tourists should reconsider their travel plans to the country later in the season, as it is likely to be dangerous.

Madness, considering they have run out of foreign currency reserves too.

Isn't all that a negative consequence of their idiotic plan for organic farming? Trying to pass off responsibility for this famine on the war in Ukraine is pretty weaselly, it's self-inflicted by a corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent govt.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Thursday 19th May 22:14

[Evanivitch]

take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:

Love the news stories today.. Like James Cameron flick.

Russia has deployed several of their terminator BMP-T units and separately they claim to have deployed a laser (in a 40watt range)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61508922

The chap even looks like arnie.

Offensive laser systems today are pretty massive. You'd be looking at something like a 40ft shipping container of amplifiers and cooling equipment to provide sufficient power to shoot down a "drone" at range. And the director (which combines several smaller lasers into a single focused beam) is generally about the size of a small car.

So it's not a discrete item to be sneaking around a battlefield covered in smart phones and it has a hell of a signature (both thermal and laser scatter).

And it wouldn't be 40W, it would be 40kW (1000 times larger).

[Art0ir]

Horrible, horrible reports of rape coming from recently liberated territories North of Kharkiv. Everywhere these animals go, this st follows.

Recall the self-shot video of a Russian soldier raping a baby last month.

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=5437...

[off_again]

prand said:

I do too, I just thought this one in particular was pretty informal in style (fired instead of relieved of duty or even sacked), plus writing about the general and admiral it almost in a tabloid way. I guess it is written with a specific audience in mind, but I had thought these were intelligence briefings, not for lowest common denominator consumption. Then again they are posted on Twitter and referenced on Radio 1 news, so perhaps that’s the point of them.

There is an art to creating this type of intelligence summary. Having worked in these circles, but not so much on the national defense side, it makes a dramatic difference to make these bulletins usable. Boiling it down to actionable, short and relevant information takes a lot of work, but when its done right, its bloody brilliant!

Credit to the MOD on this - their intelligence has been extremely good over the years (MI5/6) but what they have failed to do is make it consumable. They made a big shift a few years ago and its taken time to get right, but they cracked the code and have a brilliant process to produce this type of thing. Of course, the joke is that Defense minister is typically as dumb as a box of frogs, so needs briefings that are designed for toddlers....



You didnt hear that from me though .....

[CrutyRammers]

Evanivitch said:

Offensive laser systems today are pretty massive. You'd be looking at something like a 40ft shipping container of amplifiers and cooling equipment to provide sufficient power to shoot down a "drone" at range. And the director (which combines several smaller lasers into a single focused beam) is generally about the size of a small car.

So it's not a discrete item to be sneaking around a battlefield covered in smart phones and it has a hell of a signature (both thermal and laser scatter).

And it wouldn't be 40W, it would be 40kW (1000 times larger).

The 40w thing is a quote from The Terminator. "Phased plasma rifle in the 40w range". I always thought it sounded a little puny tbh.

[FiF]

bloomen said:

Since Russia is now saying the Black Sea export blockades will stay in place unless sanctions are reviewed, I wonder where regional grimness ends and global grimness begins.

Weirdly enough the countries that will suffer the most likely offer the most support to Russia. I wonder whether that'll last.

Sometimes the UN could do with being fully weaponised.

US is considering sending Harpoon missiles to :ahem: deal with Russian Black Sea fleet that is blockading export shipments. US suggesting it would be possible to send Harpoon and other Naval Strike Missiles directly or from a handful of other allied nations who possess them and are interested to do so. Of course the question that arises is the one of escalation, but in my opinion this is what UN resolutions are for.

[havoc]

FiF said:

US is considering sending Harpoon missiles to :ahem: deal with Russian Black Sea fleet that is blockading export shipments. US suggesting it would be possible to send Harpoon and other Naval Strike Missiles directly or from a handful of other allied nations who possess them and are interested to do so.

'Send' how, exactly?

Self-propelled, so-to-speak?

[king arthur]

hidetheelephants said:

TTmonkey said:

bloomen said:

Since Russia is now saying the Black Sea export blockades will stay in place unless sanctions are reviewed, I wonder where regional grimness ends and global grimness begins.

Weirdly enough the countries that will suffer the most likely offer the most support to Russia. I wonder whether that'll last.

Sometimes the UN could do with being fully weaponised.

Interesting interview on the news channel earlier with The prime minister of Sri Lanka.
They’ve already had a lot of unrest and things are looking very gloomy.
He was saying that it wasn’t just a case that they are not receiving the wheat they buy from Ukraine and Russia, he said the major issue was they had not received any of their normal deliveries of fertiliser this year. None.

So the local harvest, which is due in August, is going to exacerbate the issue of food shortages because the local yields will be heavily impacted.

Considering the issues the country already has this is going to be a disaster. He actually advised that foreign tourists should reconsider their travel plans to the country later in the season, as it is likely to be dangerous.

Madness, considering they have run out of foreign currency reserves too.

Isn't all that a negative consequence of their idiotic plan for organic farming? Trying to pass off responsibility for this famine on the war in Ukraine is pretty weaselly, it's self-inflicted by a corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent govt.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Thursday 19th May 22:14

It's not just that though. Sri Lanka relies a lot on the tourist industry to bring in foreign currency. They have literally run out of foreign currency reserves now so they cannot pay for the fuel that is waiting to be imported. There is apparently enough petrol for one day.

People are rioting and setting fire to MP's houses - one MP has apparently been killed, beaten to death by protesters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnX1zJZfo34

I think it would be safe to say we will see a lot more of this in 2022. Turkey is in similar dire straits with regard to foreign currency reserves due in no small part to Erdogan's idiotic monetary policies.

[phil_cardiff]

off_again said:

prand said:

Byker28i said:

MOD say the russians have got to the backstabbing stage

The subject of this, and language seems a bit odd and informal, and has a lot of fact based on inference. Is this a real release?

Its the MOD and almost all Western intelligence organizations use specific words and terms that specifically mean something:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_...

Words like likely and probable have very specific meanings and when you apply this to the MOD release, it does take on a lot more relevance.

Spent many an hour debating if something was likely or highly likely in a former life. Law enforcement not defence though. I've enjoyed reading these MOD briefs.

[bloomen]

FiF said:

US is considering sending Harpoon missiles to :ahem: deal with Russian Black Sea fleet that is blockading export shipments. US suggesting it would be possible to send Harpoon and other Naval Strike Missiles directly or from a handful of other allied nations who possess them and are interested to do so. Of course the question that arises is the one of escalation, but in my opinion this is what UN resolutions are for.

Well, I hope every single Russian ship winds up on the sea floor, but that doesn't deal with air.

I don't really see how unblocking Odessa doesn't turn into much of the world vs Russia. Maybe if Russia sees some proper resolve they'll back down. And then sink some ships when they think we're looking the other way.

[Oilchange]

I wonder how many subs the Russians have out in the Black Sea, they're the real hazard I think

[TTmonkey]

hidetheelephants said:

TTmonkey said:

bloomen said:

Since Russia is now saying the Black Sea export blockades will stay in place unless sanctions are reviewed, I wonder where regional grimness ends and global grimness begins.

Weirdly enough the countries that will suffer the most likely offer the most support to Russia. I wonder whether that'll last.

Sometimes the UN could do with being fully weaponised.

Interesting interview on the news channel earlier with The prime minister of Sri Lanka.
They’ve already had a lot of unrest and things are looking very gloomy.
He was saying that it wasn’t just a case that they are not receiving the wheat they buy from Ukraine and Russia, he said the major issue was they had not received any of their normal deliveries of fertiliser this year. None.

So the local harvest, which is due in August, is going to exacerbate the issue of food shortages because the local yields will be heavily impacted.

Considering the issues the country already has this is going to be a disaster. He actually advised that foreign tourists should reconsider their travel plans to the country later in the season, as it is likely to be dangerous.

Madness, considering they have run out of foreign currency reserves too.

Isn't all that a negative consequence of their idiotic plan for organic farming? Trying to pass off responsibility for this famine on the war in Ukraine is pretty weaselly, it's self-inflicted by a corrupt, nepotistic and incompetent govt.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Thursday 19th May 22:14

Wtf does it matter what the causes are or who on the government is to blame? Millions of ordinary people, not decision makers or corrupt politicians, are going to start really suffering. When people start dying they won’t be the ones generally that are responsible.

[Ridgemont]

king arthur said:

It's not just that though. Sri Lanka relies a lot on the tourist industry to bring in foreign currency. They have literally run out of foreign currency reserves now so they cannot pay for the fuel that is waiting to be imported. There is apparently enough petrol for one day.

People are rioting and setting fire to MP's houses - one MP has apparently been killed, beaten to death by protesters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnX1zJZfo34

I think it would be safe to say we will see a lot more of this in 2022. Turkey is in similar dire straits with regard to foreign currency reserves due in no small part to Erdogan's idiotic monetary policies.

Without trying to sound overly detached from the human significance this is interesting global geo politics playing out right now.

There are a lot of countries now completely bent out of shape following the pandemic and the earlier GFC combining with irrational financial policies. We are seeing some of the impact here but I think the brunt is being born by the countries that have played fast and loose with the international system. They are canaries in the mine so far:

Turkey:
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/16/t...

Sri Lanka
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/sri-la...

Inflation, balance of payments crisis, political upheaval.

The crunch of the impact of what is happening in Ukraine is going to be felt globally in the next 6 months and I suspect there are a few canaries still to drop.

Very likely internal suppression and internal revolt.

China is the biggest of the bunch. It’s going to be a fascinating (detached view) few months. If we think we have it bad here it is going to be astronomically worse else where. Likely winners? I’m guessing the petro economies, Russia excluded.

[SlimJim16v]

The countries suffering from Russia's blockade of Ukraine should send their navies to protect and escort Ukraine's exports. From what I've read in the articles linked above, the st has already started hitting the fan in poorer countries.

The useless UN should be doing something.