North Korea - how serious should we take them?

[Cobnapint]

gadgetmac said:

Cobnapint said:

Nobody's trying to 'change' NK.

If NK carried on locking up, shooting, and executing it's own citizens in front of school kids. Carried on with its rather brilliant annual synchronized military parade and staring across the DMZ at US and SK forces, nobody would really give two sts.

But that's not 'just' what he's chosen to do.

He regularly threatens the USA, more recently by showing the Capitol building in a ball of flames on state TV, and returning a US citizen from North Korean custody in a vegetative state.

Now I don't know what rules some of 'you' play by, but If that isn't throwing the gauntlet down, I don't know what is.

Just imagine if he'd shown images of the palace of Westminster in a ball of flames, returned a Brit back into Heathrow a cabbage, shortly before announcing ICBM capability and declaring it a gift to the UK.

I'm constantly astonished by some of your replies but in particular how you are unable to draw any even-handed conclusions from your own questions. I know you've been asked before but are you American?

Anyway, Why doesn't he portray "Westminister in a ball of flames"? Why only America in flames? Try answering your own question, I'm genuinely interested in your reply.

I have been asked before, and I'm still not American.

On the ball of flames front, is this the way to carry on ? We aren't running inflamatory footage of all our past and present foes are we?
Nor is the US.

He doesn't have to engage in anything like that. Just sit down and shut up man.

Edited by Cobnapint on Friday 7th July 08:40

[Nothingtoseehere]

skyrover said:

As has already been explained to you in the thread... The world (including China) has tried to get North Korea to follow the Chinese model and open up.

They DO NOT WANT TO.

Who are 'they' specifically?

[mybrainhurts]

Nothingtoseehere said:

skyrover said:

As has already been explained to you in the thread... The world (including China) has tried to get North Korea to follow the Chinese model and open up.

They DO NOT WANT TO.

Who are 'they' specifically?

Kimmy baby....all six bellies of them.

[Efbe]

Cobnapint said:

I have been asked before, and I'm still not American.

On the ball of flames front, is this the way to carry on ? We aren't running inflamatory footage of all our past and present does are we?
Nor is the US.

He doesn't have to engage in anything like that. Just sit down and shut up man.

yes we really are.

There have been several films directly laughing at and threatening NK. The Interview with Seth Rogan being a recent one.
Every president in the last 50 years has threatened them. Trump has done in the last day or so.
The US constantly threaten with military action. They have 15 bases in SK ready for that eventuality.

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

[gadgetmac]

Cobnapint said:

gadgetmac said:

Cobnapint said:

Nobody's trying to 'change' NK.

If NK carried on locking up, shooting, and executing it's own citizens in front of school kids. Carried on with its rather brilliant annual synchronized military parade and staring across the DMZ at US and SK forces, nobody would really give two sts.

But that's not 'just' what he's chosen to do.

He regularly threatens the USA, more recently by showing the Capitol building in a ball of flames on state TV, and returning a US citizen from North Korean custody in a vegetative state.

Now I don't know what rules some of 'you' play by, but If that isn't throwing the gauntlet down, I don't know what is.

Just imagine if he'd shown images of the palace of Westminster in a ball of flames, returned a Brit back into Heathrow a cabbage, shortly before announcing ICBM capability and declaring it a gift to the UK.

I'm constantly astonished by some of your replies but in particular how you are unable to draw any even-handed conclusions from your own questions. I know you've been asked before but are you American?

Anyway, Why doesn't he portray "Westminister in a ball of flames"? Why only America in flames? Try answering your own question, I'm genuinely interested in your reply.

I have been asked before, and I'm still not American.

On the ball of flames front, is this the way to carry on ? We aren't running inflamatory footage of all our past and present does are we?
Nor is the US.

He doesn't have to engage in anything like that. Just sit down and shut up man.

He would but the US keeps playing war games off the coast of NK. Don't forget, the NK's have been attacked by the US in the past and tens of thousands of them died. They also watched as across the sea 2 nuclear weapons were unleashed on 2 cities. The mushroom clouds might even have been visible in Korea. Ok, maybe not, but the point stands that they've seen Nuclear destruction in their backyard perpetrated by the US (rightly or wrongly) and know they are capable of it if they can convince themselves its justified.

What do you expect them to do?

Both sides should "sit down and shut up" in my opinion.

[Efbe]

skyrover said:

As has already been explained to you in the thread... The world (including China) has tried to get North Korea to follow the Chinese model and open up.

They DO NOT WANT TO.

Why did the chinese open up, was it through military threats, international sanctions and war games... or requests for trade and a slow internal change?

What China is doing now, which the US aren't is opening up trade with them, providing tools, technology etc so they start to develop. This will eventually lead to the slow internal change that tends to change countries for the better

[srebbe64]

Hmm. 42.

[anonymous-user]

scherzkeks said:

jsf said:

blade runner said:

In any case, just how many of the intercontinental missiles is NK going to realistically be able to produce? The US already has a defence system designed to counter a relatively small ICBM attack from a less sophisticated adversary like NK, so it's not like the threat is at the same level as say Russia or China.

I'd be more worried about the short range versions aimed at SK and Japan which they have had for a while now and not used, so not sure why is the intercontinental version being made out to be such a game changer?

Because they can reach the USA and the main global countries centres of population, that changes everything.

When you have allies that can be hurt but you cant, you can play more of a stand off game politically. When your own population is at risk the politics changes, you cant then ignore the problem.

Heard of the Cold War?

What is deterrence for 100, Alex?

As a child of the 60's who spent time at Bruggen, Gütersloh and Wildenrath I think I might have.

[RBH58]

I think China's hand will get forced eventually. Control or take out Fat Boy or wind up with the Yanks on their doorstep. The US aren't going to wait for Fat Boy to push the button on them or one of their allies before they act.

If the US go in now then tens of thousands of South Koreans could get killed in a retaliation. If they leave it another year it could be hundreds of thousands of even millions of Koreans and Japanese. If I were the US I think I'd quietly be giving the Chinese a deadline date after which I'd be prepared to bomb the crap out of Fat Boy.

[gadgetmac]

RBH58 said:

I think China's hand will get forced eventually. Control or take out Fat Boy or wind up with the Yanks on their doorstep. The US aren't going to wait for Fat Boy to push the button on them or one of their allies before they act.

If the US go in now then tens of thousands of South Koreans could get killed in a retaliation. If they leave it another year it could be hundreds of thousands of even millions of Koreans and Japanese. If I were the US I think I'd quietly be giving the Chinese a deadline date after which I'd be prepared to bomb the crap out of Fat Boy.

Yes, attempting to bomb the crap out of NK will likely lead to your scenario of hundreds of thousands being killed.

Alternately, nobody dies if the US takes neither of your 2 options. As it's not Americans that will do the dyeing the decision shouldn't be theirs.

I'll bet nobody on here advocating that the US attack NK has family in Seoul.

[skyrover]

Efbe said:

skyrover said:

As has already been explained to you in the thread... The world (including China) has tried to get North Korea to follow the Chinese model and open up.

They DO NOT WANT TO.

Why did the chinese open up, was it through military threats, international sanctions and war games... or requests for trade and a slow internal change?

What China is doing now, which the US aren't is opening up trade with them, providing tools, technology etc so they start to develop. This will eventually lead to the slow internal change that tends to change countries for the better

China opened up through internal politics. Beforehand it was similar to North Korea's self imposed isolation from the world.

The problem is... North Korea operates essentially as a dynasty, whereas China and the Soviet Union nominate political candidates for power from within the party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_ref...

Economic reforms began after Deng Xiaoping and his reformist allies ousted the Gang of Four Maoist faction. By the time Deng took power, there was widespread support among the elite for economic reforms. As the de facto leader, Deng's policies faced opposition from party conservatives but were extremely successful in increasing the country's wealth.

Change has to come from within.

Edited by skyrover on Friday 7th July 06:24

[hidetheelephants]

Efbe said:

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

About that; that would be the same Korean War that North Korea started and resulted in a massive death toll in the ROK?

gadgetmac said:

He would but the US keeps playing war games off the coast of NK. Don't forget, the NK's have been attacked by the US in the past and tens of thousands of them died.

Those would be bilateral exercises with the ROK; when your immediate neighbour is a belligerent martial state with an economy that functions solely to feed its grossly oversized military, has invaded you before resulting in 370k civilian deaths and has punctuated the ceasefire period with kidnapping your citizens,engaging in guerilla warfare, shelling your territory killing military personnel and sinking ships, exercises for defence readiness are a wise precaution even if your own forces are much smaller. NK has never been attacked by the US outside of the Korean war, which NK started.

[Cobnapint]

hidetheelephants said:

Efbe said:

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

About that; that would be the same Korean War that North Korea started and resulted in a massive death toll in the ROK?

gadgetmac said:

He would but the US keeps playing war games off the coast of NK. Don't forget, the NK's have been attacked by the US in the past and tens of thousands of them died.

Those would be bilateral exercises with the ROK; when your immediate neighbour is a belligerent martial state with an economy that functions solely to feed its grossly oversized military, has invaded you before resulting in 370k civilian deaths and has punctuated the ceasefire period with kidnapping your citizens,engaging in guerilla warfare, shelling your territory killing military personnel and sinking ships, exercises for defence readiness are a wise precaution even if your own forces are much smaller. NK has never been attacked by the US outside of the Korean war, which NK started.

+1

Somebody with a bit of common sense at last. I thought the thread had suffered a joint takeover bid from the Lib Dems, Corbyn and RT for a minute.

[scherzkeks]

jsf said:

scherzkeks said:

jsf said:

blade runner said:

In any case, just how many of the intercontinental missiles is NK going to realistically be able to produce? The US already has a defence system designed to counter a relatively small ICBM attack from a less sophisticated adversary like NK, so it's not like the threat is at the same level as say Russia or China.

I'd be more worried about the short range versions aimed at SK and Japan which they have had for a while now and not used, so not sure why is the intercontinental version being made out to be such a game changer?

Because they can reach the USA and the main global countries centres of population, that changes everything.

When you have allies that can be hurt but you cant, you can play more of a stand off game politically. When your own population is at risk the politics changes, you cant then ignore the problem.

Heard of the Cold War?

What is deterrence for 100, Alex?

As a child of the 60's who spent time at Bruggen, Gütersloh and Wildenrath I think I might have.

You've heard of the Cold War. That's a start. Now make an argument.

[Cobnapint]

Efbe said:

There have been several films directly laughing at and threatening NK. The Interview with Seth Rogan being a recent one.
Every president in the last 50 years has threatened them. Trump has done in the last day or so.
The US constantly threaten with military action. They have 15 bases in SK ready for that eventuality.

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

Are you for real? The films were a piss-take produced by individuals in the film industry of a free society, not threatening propaganda from state controlled TV.

And you really believe the 15 bases in SK are there in readiness to attack the North?

I can't help you mate.

[Efbe]

Cobnapint said:

Efbe said:

There have been several films directly laughing at and threatening NK. The Interview with Seth Rogan being a recent one.
Every president in the last 50 years has threatened them. Trump has done in the last day or so.
The US constantly threaten with military action. They have 15 bases in SK ready for that eventuality.

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

Are you for real? The films were a piss-take produced by individuals in the film industry of a free society, not threatening propaganda from state controlled TV.

And you really believe the 15 bases in SK are there in readiness to attack the North?

I can't help you mate.

I am directly responding to your ridiculous assertions that this is a one sided tiff.

You said the US does not provoke the NK with threats. I have shown examples that they do, both through films and political statements.
You said the US has not harmed any North Koreans, I showed you 1.5million deaths. Do you think Tubs will blame himself for this? According to their narrative; NK rules SK. They probably think they were retaking their own country which has been illegally invaded. I know this is ridiculous, but this is the same bks political nonsense that is held in South Korea and also in China and Taiwan. It's a common theme for that part of the world. History is often written by politics and common sense often seems left behind.

I have worked on some of those American bases, Osan Ab for quite a while, I know exactly what they are like. Have you? Do you think the US has placed airbases there for fun, maybe a holiday destination for troops, with theme-parks, waterslides and sunbeds?

I for one can see both sides of the argument, I find it completely bizarre that you cannot, and take a completely American biased view. This is why a few people have questioned whether you are American or not. To be quite frank I expect more from a Brit.

[anonymous-user]

scherzkeks said:

jsf said:

scherzkeks said:

jsf said:

blade runner said:

In any case, just how many of the intercontinental missiles is NK going to realistically be able to produce? The US already has a defence system designed to counter a relatively small ICBM attack from a less sophisticated adversary like NK, so it's not like the threat is at the same level as say Russia or China.

I'd be more worried about the short range versions aimed at SK and Japan which they have had for a while now and not used, so not sure why is the intercontinental version being made out to be such a game changer?

Because they can reach the USA and the main global countries centres of population, that changes everything.

When you have allies that can be hurt but you cant, you can play more of a stand off game politically. When your own population is at risk the politics changes, you cant then ignore the problem.

Heard of the Cold War?

What is deterrence for 100, Alex?

As a child of the 60's who spent time at Bruggen, Gütersloh and Wildenrath I think I might have.

You've heard of the Cold War. That's a start. Now make an argument.

I don't need to make an argument.

I made a statement, which part of what I said is incorrect?

[Atomic12C]

Efbe said:

Within SK, the people do not like the US being there. Not a week goes by without a newspaper article criticising what the US are doing in the country, blaming them for something or highlighting poor behavior of the troops. Politically(internally) it is not good to have the US troops there. The people generally do not believe in the threat from the North and would welcome a unification (remembering many families were divided by the split)

To go back to a previous post, I do think the way this is being handled is ridiculous, especially by the US. As stated before trying to resolve this with military action would backfire badly. Tubs is expected to launch nuclear weapons against his own country at ports/potential landing points to prevent US feet on the ground. He has artillery pointed at Seoul, for which even one shell landing would be devastating.
The way to do this is by changing the game. Help the country to develop, especially a middle class, which really does not exist there. Bring in technology, mobile phones etc and encourage internal change and there may be a chance of getting out of this clusterfk without creating another worse one.
If this policy was adopted 50 years ago, we would be in a much better situation now. History tells us exactly how badly forced borders go. Internal change works, military pressure does not.
That isn't to say this will fix it overnight, but it will sow the seeds we need.
Fortunately China does seem to have worked this out, chinese tech is common in NK. Well not common, but is coming in. You see phones on the street now. They are usually rebranded, but essentially chinese tech, and they are being sold cheap, maybe not cheap for the north koreans who earn nothing, but cheap in comparison to the sale price in china

There is a good argument that the US have out welcomed their stay in S.Korea. Many would agree that after the end of WWII, instead of furthering their own global policing and fear of communism by pushing on up towards China that they should have concentrated on solidifying Korea to stand on its own feet and then promptly removed their forces from the land.
Many would then argue that this would have left Korea open to the pressures of China and communism would have forced its way in.

Is this a bad or good thing at the time? Well, this can also be argued one way or the other. But probably best for a separate thread.


The point about solving this militarily. Well my answer to this is that I think its the only way left. I do agree that historically the US and other forces in the region have done nothing but provoke N.Korea in to developing nuclear weapons. That aspect is ridiculous and to the point whereby the US has created a dire situation all by its own doing.

But diplomacy isn't working and sanctions are not working.
The messages coming out of N.Korea only point to their desperation in attacking the US. They would seem certain that once a weapon is capable of damaging the USA that they will use it as soon as possible.

This puts the USA in to a defensive pro-active mode, in which I'm think they will have to make concessions to China in order that a full scale wipe-out of N.Korea's military capacity can take place. But how likely are China to agree and how large a concession are they likely to demand? Its a tricky one.

A total first-strike wipeout of N.Korea military is a possibility. Targeting not only the known nuclear sites (which are well known due to the amount of high definition spy satellites hovering over the place, but also targeting the 100's of artillery positions along the border.
A mixture of small tactical nuclear warheads plus large bombing runs coupled with the use of land cruise missiles would have a huge impact.

But the risk is once this starts there is always enough time for a few N.Korea buttons to be pressed that would impact on civilian targets.

Dire situation which ever way you look at it.

[Cobnapint]

Efbe said:

Cobnapint said:

Efbe said:

There have been several films directly laughing at and threatening NK. The Interview with Seth Rogan being a recent one.
Every president in the last 50 years has threatened them. Trump has done in the last day or so.
The US constantly threaten with military action. They have 15 bases in SK ready for that eventuality.

In addition 1.5m North Koreans died in the Korean war.

Are you for real? The films were a piss-take produced by individuals in the film industry of a free society, not threatening propaganda from state controlled TV.

And you really believe the 15 bases in SK are there in readiness to attack the North?

I can't help you mate.

I am directly responding to your ridiculous assertions that this is a one sided tiff.

You said the US does not provoke the NK with threats. I have shown examples that they do, both through films and political statements.
You said the US has not harmed any North Koreans, I showed you 1.5million deaths. Do you think Tubs will blame himself for this? According to their narrative; NK rules SK. They probably think they were retaking their own country which has been illegally invaded. I know this is ridiculous, but this is the same bks political nonsense that is held in South Korea and also in China and Taiwan. It's a common theme for that part of the world. History is often written by politics and common sense often seems left behind.

I have worked on some of those American bases, Osan Ab for quite a while, I know exactly what they are like. Have you? Do you think the US has placed airbases there for fun, maybe a holiday destination for troops, with theme-parks, waterslides and sunbeds?

I for one can see both sides of the argument, I find it completely bizarre that you cannot, and take a completely American biased view. This is why a few people have questioned whether you are American or not. To be quite frank I expect more from a Brit.

Get a grip man.

You think a couple of Hollywood films are classified as threats...? Jeez.

And the political statements are warranted and usually in response to the latest dhead move by NK, such as sinking a SK naval vessel or flouting resolutions. That's what political leaders do, that is their job. What do you want them to do, shut up in case we upset the guy?

And as for the US bases, there are US bases situated around the globe - thankfully, for defensive purposes, and for keeping the Russians and Chinese from getting any big ideas.

Your claim that the US bases in SK are there for 'offensive' purposes is quite ridiculous.

[scherzkeks]

Atomic12C said:

Efbe said:

Within SK, the people do not like the US being there. Not a week goes by without a newspaper article criticising what the US are doing in the country, blaming them for something or highlighting poor behavior of the troops. Politically(internally) it is not good to have the US troops there. The people generally do not believe in the threat from the North and would welcome a unification (remembering many families were divided by the split)

To go back to a previous post, I do think the way this is being handled is ridiculous, especially by the US. As stated before trying to resolve this with military action would backfire badly. Tubs is expected to launch nuclear weapons against his own country at ports/potential landing points to prevent US feet on the ground. He has artillery pointed at Seoul, for which even one shell landing would be devastating.
The way to do this is by changing the game. Help the country to develop, especially a middle class, which really does not exist there. Bring in technology, mobile phones etc and encourage internal change and there may be a chance of getting out of this clusterfk without creating another worse one.
If this policy was adopted 50 years ago, we would be in a much better situation now. History tells us exactly how badly forced borders go. Internal change works, military pressure does not.
That isn't to say this will fix it overnight, but it will sow the seeds we need.
Fortunately China does seem to have worked this out, chinese tech is common in NK. Well not common, but is coming in. You see phones on the street now. They are usually rebranded, but essentially chinese tech, and they are being sold cheap, maybe not cheap for the north koreans who earn nothing, but cheap in comparison to the sale price in china

But diplomacy isn't working and sanctions are not working.

As so often, we'd never know either way, as the narrative is shaped long before it ever reaches any of the plebes, so statements like this are rather comical.

What we do know is that Kim has yet to actually do anything, and our propaganda mills are running at full tilt to generate support for a potential strike.