How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
Ref 2 is out of time prior to 29th March 2019.
It would require an extension to the leaving date above (change in the law), already ruled out by Raab, and agreement of the EU (already ruled out by Verhofstadt, and only very recently).
GE would require a vote of no confidence in the Govt, unlikely to succeed unless some Tories vote themselves out of office.
Although the reliance on the DUP to prop the Tories up is diminishing, and on a daily basis.
Looking at the guesstimates above, and on reflection it could be a goer.
I can't see how a 2nd referendum would actually work anyway.It would require an extension to the leaving date above (change in the law), already ruled out by Raab, and agreement of the EU (already ruled out by Verhofstadt, and only very recently).
GE would require a vote of no confidence in the Govt, unlikely to succeed unless some Tories vote themselves out of office.
Although the reliance on the DUP to prop the Tories up is diminishing, and on a daily basis.
Looking at the guesstimates above, and on reflection it could be a goer.
I can see enough of the ERG voting against the government, but equally I'm not sure what a General Election without a change in Tory leadership would change as both parties would be standing on a brexit light manifesto.
Can kicked further down the road then?
She will undoubtedly lose the Chequers battle, I think the numbers above demonstrate that quite clearly, albeit they are guesses.
If the DUP vote down the budget proposals as threatened, and some Tory MP's do similar, her position becomes becomes increasingly threatened and to many untenable.
The threat of a GE will increase if May is ousted, as Labour could call for a motion of no confidence in the Govt.
desolate said:
Vanden Saab said:
The initial reaction would be to go back to the EU to try and get an agreement that is acceptable to the house, this would by its nature have to be acceptable to the ERG and Labour Leavers et al. Neither ref.2 or an election is on the cards despite remnants wet dreams.
So May stays no matter what?Is that what you think?
DAVEVO9 said:
At a guess it looks like Raab stood his ground, and stuck with his statement from two days ago.Tuna said:
Ghibli said:
They haven't solved anything and many only follow PH and not the actual negotiations. Gooner as an example.
You're on pretty thin ice with that comment. You're incapable of being fed information from any source without putting it through Ghibli tinted glasses and coming up with your own unique interpretation. Following the negotiations doesn't seem to be your strong point.Case in point - you still keep referring to negotiations 'by Brexiteers' despite the well established fact that Oli Robbins and co are the ones out there preparing the deal, and May is the one signing off. If you don't even know who's negotiating on your behalf, why should we take any of your other pronouncements seriously?
Another case in point - despite endless circular arguments, you still cannot get the arguments other PH members are making right. My position on Brexit has been clear pretty much since day one, yet you persist in claiming I've asked people to embrace any sort of Brexit. The list of your misrepresentations of other people's points is long (and tedious).
Another case in point - you still haven't acknowledged the cost of implementing the customs processing that Chequers commits to, nor the estimated costs to business. You desperately want Chequers to happen if you can't stop Brexit (hence the inability to accept Leadsom's resignation threat), but don't even appear to understand what it is you're asking for.
Final case - how many people on here have to tell you you're wrong on something before you take the hint? Has *anyone* on here backed you up on the "No solution has been offered for the NI border" claim? Note (for the benefit of your Ghibli tinted glasses) I said "no solution offered", not "no solution acceptable to Ghibli offered". Getting a good deal out of Brexit may involve some compromises - and May has been singularly useless at forcing anyone other than her own Cabinet to compromise.
Edited by Tuna on Sunday 14th October 17:52
You live in a Tuna bubble and clearly don't follow the negotiations. Even your vision of Brexit doesn't include the Irish border issue.
don'tbesilly said:
DAVEVO9 said:
At a guess it looks like Raab stood his ground, and stuck with his statement from two days ago.Ghibli said:
Tuna said:
Ghibli said:
They haven't solved anything and many only follow PH and not the actual negotiations. Gooner as an example.
You're on pretty thin ice with that comment. You're incapable of being fed information from any source without putting it through Ghibli tinted glasses and coming up with your own unique interpretation. Following the negotiations doesn't seem to be your strong point.Case in point - you still keep referring to negotiations 'by Brexiteers' despite the well established fact that Oli Robbins and co are the ones out there preparing the deal, and May is the one signing off. If you don't even know who's negotiating on your behalf, why should we take any of your other pronouncements seriously?
Another case in point - despite endless circular arguments, you still cannot get the arguments other PH members are making right. My position on Brexit has been clear pretty much since day one, yet you persist in claiming I've asked people to embrace any sort of Brexit. The list of your misrepresentations of other people's points is long (and tedious).
Another case in point - you still haven't acknowledged the cost of implementing the customs processing that Chequers commits to, nor the estimated costs to business. You desperately want Chequers to happen if you can't stop Brexit (hence the inability to accept Leadsom's resignation threat), but don't even appear to understand what it is you're asking for.
Final case - how many people on here have to tell you you're wrong on something before you take the hint? Has *anyone* on here backed you up on the "No solution has been offered for the NI border" claim? Note (for the benefit of your Ghibli tinted glasses) I said "no solution offered", not "no solution acceptable to Ghibli offered". Getting a good deal out of Brexit may involve some compromises - and May has been singularly useless at forcing anyone other than her own Cabinet to compromise.
Edited by Tuna on Sunday 14th October 17:52
You live in a Tuna bubble and clearly don't follow the negotiations. Even your vision of Brexit doesn't include the Irish border issue.
Jonesy23 said:
don'tbesilly said:
The threat of a GE will increase if May is ousted, as Labour could call for a motion of no confidence in the Govt.
They can call for whatever they want - the system doesn't work that way any more.It is possible for a vote of no confidence to succeed where there is a minority government, a small majority or where there are internal party splits. Where there is a minority government, the government may seek agreements or pacts with minor parties in order to remain in office.
Despite their importance to the British constitution, for a long time the rules surrounding motions of no confidence were dictated by convention. However, since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a vote of no confidence means the government has 14 days in which to win a vote of confidence, or a general election is held.
The Govt does have a small majority propped up by a minor party, the splits are akin to the San Andreas fault line.
The DUP could quite easily, and as things currently stand, withdraw their support during that 14 day window.
Anything is possible, however unlikely, and with May's Chequers proposal hitting a brick wall, and not for the first time, the Government is increasingly looking weak and massively divided, and increasingly vulnerable.
Ghibli said:
Posters are telling me that they have solved the problems and that I don't listen.
They haven't solved anything and many only follow PH and not the actual negotiations. Gooner as an example.
I'm more than happy for you to come to that conclusion.They haven't solved anything and many only follow PH and not the actual negotiations. Gooner as an example.
Would you care to point out which particular item concerning the negotiations
I may have mentioned is incorrect?
Always willing to acknowledge facts, a commodity you seem to be desperately short of.
.
Ghibli said:
The trouble is Tuna, the information you provide on PH does not fit with the real negotiations.
Fantastic, then you won't have any problem pointing out the inconsistencies will you? Off you go. You've made another bold claim.. Ghibli said:
You live in a Tuna bubble and clearly don't follow the negotiations. Even your vision of Brexit doesn't include the Irish border issue.
When you're loosing the argument, saying something completely nonsensical is a great tactic. I'm sure there are dozens of posters on here that must be agreeing with you. Just... rather quietly. And in your head. Only in your head really.Here's a couple of things for you to digest. I've never claimed to know what other people are thinking, and I've never been so arrogant as to try and speak for them. You should try that some time. I've said how I feel about Brexit, and tried my best to explain why. I've commented throughout the process on events in the news and what it might mean for the negotiations. That's all.
As for Ireland, I'm not the one who has taken another countries' troubles and attempted to use them to force my agenda on other people. Northern Ireland is absolutely in a very difficult position as the punchbag in these negotiations. It doesn't help that historically politics in Ireland are both confrontational and very stubbornly fought. However, those attempting to say there can be no change in our trading relationship with the EU because of a physical land border and a vague threat of terrorism are both dishonest and divisive.
Tuna said:
Ghibli said:
The trouble is Tuna, the information you provide on PH does not fit with the real negotiations.
Fantastic, then you won't have any problem pointing out the inconsistencies will you? Off you go. You've made another bold claim.. Ghibli said:
You live in a Tuna bubble and clearly don't follow the negotiations. Even your vision of Brexit doesn't include the Irish border issue.
When you're loosing the argument, saying something completely nonsensical is a great tactic. I'm sure there are dozens of posters on here that must be agreeing with you. Just... rather quietly. And in your head. Only in your head really.Here's a couple of things for you to digest. I've never claimed to know what other people are thinking, and I've never been so arrogant as to try and speak for them. You should try that some time. I've said how I feel about Brexit, and tried my best to explain why. I've commented throughout the process on events in the news and what it might mean for the negotiations. That's all.
As for Ireland, I'm not the one who has taken another countries' troubles and attempted to use them to force my agenda on other people. Northern Ireland is absolutely in a very difficult position as the punchbag in these negotiations. It doesn't help that historically politics in Ireland are both confrontational and very stubbornly fought. However, those attempting to say there can be no change in our trading relationship with the EU because of a physical land border and a vague threat of terrorism are both dishonest and divisive.
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
Ghibli said:
Vanden Saab said:
Ghibli said:
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
You actually think the negotiations are over... Oh my...Vanden Saab said:
Ghibli said:
Vanden Saab said:
Ghibli said:
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
You actually think the negotiations are over... Oh my...Ghibli said:
You have certainly claimed that you know what I am thinking. Read your own post to see where you have.
With respect to the negotiations... where? With respect to your endless trolling on here, it seems reasonable to take a guess at your mental process, so we might understand what you think you're achieving.Ghibli said:
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
How many times do I have to explain to you that I have no faith in May's position, and that she is not negotiating on my behalf? Even having said that, what did you think the EU offered the UK, and why do you think they should have accepted it? Come on, here's your opportunity to demonstrate how you follow the negotiations.
Ghibli said:
Vanden Saab said:
Ghibli said:
Vanden Saab said:
Ghibli said:
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
You actually think the negotiations are over... Oh my...Barnier said:
We met today @DominicRaab and UK negotiating team. Despite intense efforts, some key issues are still open, including the backstop for IE/NI to avoid a hard border. I will debrief the EU27 and @Europarl_EN on the #Brexit negotiations.
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
no mention of sending Raab home with no deal anywhere...
Tuna said:
Ghibli said:
You have certainly claimed that you know what I am thinking. Read your own post to see where you have.
With respect to the negotiations... where? With respect to your endless trolling on here, it seems reasonable to take a guess at your mental process, so we might understand what you think you're achieving.Ghibli said:
Meanwhile Raab is returning with no deal due the the Ireland issues. Do these issues fit with what you have written above about the Ireland issue.
How many times do I have to explain to you that I have no faith in May's position, and that she is not negotiating on my behalf? Even having said that, what did you think the EU offered the UK, and why do you think they should have accepted it? Come on, here's your opportunity to demonstrate how you follow the negotiations.
The negotiations are reality and that includes the Ireland issue. PH have not solved anything no matter how much you tell me they have. Your view of the Ireland issue doesn't fit with the negotiation.
We are now left with tin foil hatters thinking that I thought the negotiations are over.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff