How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)

[JagLover]

psi310398 said:

Interesting article on tax reform. (Words I never thought I'd write!)

This is the kind of thing Brexit supporters do need to be pushing, putting some meat on the bone of "take back control" in a concrete rather than abstract way:

https://brexitcentral.com/brexit-lower-fairer-simp...

Interesting article

Illustrates why many voted for Brexit, as they wanted a system that works for the people and not multi-nationals.

[FiF]

crankedup said:

jsf said:

crankedup said:

I believe most of the paper pulp comes from Russia, EU will be upset that they will not be stting on the U.K.

The Cushelle factory in Manchester gets half its paper from Sweden, the other half from Brazil. 2 grades are used, long and short fibre. Combining them both in layers provides the strength and softness required. The Swedish stuff provides the strength so that's on the inside, the Brazilian stuff provides the softness, so that's on the outside.

So worst case scenario we end up with softer bog roll, but you'd have to be careful how hard you used it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bcr3rj/ins...

Happy to be corrected.

So it’s unlikely that we will be short, which is comforting. Thoughts of going back to Izal grease proof from the 1950’s would be a nightmare scenario.

Pah, you had it lucky, shared sponge on a stick soaked in vinegar. Said a Roman residing in Eboracum (York)

[JagLover]

ou sont les biscuits said:

djc206 said:

desolate said:

My point was that it's a position that has plenty of support. Don't you agree?

I fking hope not!

Lots of support on here maybe. Fortunately NP+E isn’t the real world.

28% of those who expressed a preference would vote for a "no deal" Brexit in one recent poll.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/883660/support...

It depends really on how you are defining "no deal". Is it no agreement on anything whatsoever, or is it agreeing a withdrawal agreement and regulatory matters going forward and trading on WTO terms thereafter.

The latter definition of "no deal" is the less disruptive option and also better than May's Chequers proposal.

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

If the EU is making it impossible to leave with a deal then the choice becomes between stay or leave with no deal. Offered that choice I would opt for the latter, but it would not be my ideal outcome.

[powerstroke]

Jimboka said:

Any 'deal' will be worse than we have now. The poorest in the UK will suffer the most. You can bet that the typical brexiteer will suffer more than the likes of Boris/Farage/other establishment wasters.
So what are the benefits of this?

Curtail EU immigration? (any UK government could have 'deported' unemployed EU nationals after a few months, but chose not to)
Blue passport? (We could have pink with blue spots today if we want)
Trade with the rest of the world (like we do today as EU members)

But in fairness it is very entertaining, comedy gold. Who will the UK government blame for our ills?, EU a convenient scapegoat over recent decades.

Just a shame that vast swathes of UK citizens will be a lot worse off. Unless they voted brexit of course, then it is good

The above assumes that we will leave, which is far from certain. Lots of twists & turns to come.

Wrong about the "poor" !!! so far it seems the previously smug ,complacent ,the I'm all right jacks ,
and the condescending, comfortably off parasite classes who have got the most to lose if we have
a clear brexit hence the squealing and gnashing of teeth ,
If it was the poorest we would be at business as usual status...

[psi310398]

powerstroke said:

Wrong about the "poor" !!! so far it seems the previously smug ,complacent ,the I'm all right jacks ,
and the condescending, comfortably off parasite classes who have got the most to lose if we have
a clear brexit hence the squealing and gnashing of teeth ,
If it was the poorest we would be at business as usual status...

It could easily be better than BAU.

Entirely within the UK's own gift, if we immediately removed tariffs (which are effectively as regressive a tax as you can conceive) from food, clothes and footwear, which constitute the largest part of the poorest's expenditure, the poorest would benefit from an immediate improvement in their standard of living through a significant increase (ca 20%) in their spending power.

The government might have to offer some transitional support for agriculture to wean it off subsidies over, say, five years but we have little cheap clothing and footwear manufacture in this country to complain about foreign competition, so it would not be big a political problem to do so.

We could also take the opportunity to exclude the barley barons from the subsidy regime.

[anonymous-user]

JagLover said:

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

The issue isn’t what leavers want. It’s what is best for the country.

[PRTVR]

cookie118 said:

JagLover said:

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

The issue isn’t what leavers want. It’s what is best for the country.

The issue then becomes who decides what is best for the country, for some that would be to remain in the EU, that is unacceptable to the majority, remember we had a referendum to decide.

[vonuber]

don'tbesilly said:

You drew yourself into it, by claiming things (allegedly as hyperbole) that were not true and as yet you have failed to substantiate the 'hyperbole', you really didn't need any help getting drawn in.

Was your claim the other day about a Leave supporter voting that way because of the price of housing hyperbole as well?

I rather suspect neither were hyperbole, but carry on whining about getting things wrong, and subsequently being called out on it.

1) of course it was hyperbole. It's a throw away one liner; your obsession with it and trying to prove. a point over it is purely justbpint scoring, rather than an attempt to address the larger point i was making - we are not so important that the EU can't survive without us and will suddenly implode if they don't get a deal with us. The onus is on us
2) already answered the second one (again)

This does sum up neatly my other point though - bizarre petty point scoring rather than any meaningful discussion.

[Coolbanana]

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shift...

Pretty damning.

1st Poll to show a significant change of heart and one that Politicians will take more seriously in terms of protecting themselves; i.e. if other Polls start showing up similar results, they could interpret that as they 'must' offer a 2nd Referendum.

Interesting, isn't it? Could this be the first nail in the Brexit Coffin?

[mx5nut]

Coolbanana said:

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shift...

Pretty damning.

1st Poll to show a significant change of heart and one that Politicians will take more seriously in terms of protecting themselves; i.e. if other Polls start showing up similar results, they could interpret that as they 'must' offer a 2nd Referendum.

Interesting, isn't it? Could this be the first nail in the Brexit Coffin?

Theresa May said it wouldn't happen.

Which means it's a matter of "when" not "if".

[mx5nut]

cookie118 said:

JagLover said:

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

The issue isn’t what leavers want. It’s what is best for the country.

Some of them have totally lost sight of that in their relentless quest to get their own way.

[Not-The-Messiah]

mx5nut said:

cookie118 said:

JagLover said:

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

The issue isn’t what leavers want. It’s what is best for the country.

Some of them have totally lost sight of that in their relentless quest to get their own way.

What just like the EU?

[don'tbesilly]

Coolbanana said:

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shift...

Pretty damning.

1st Poll to show a significant change of heart and one that Politicians will take more seriously in terms of protecting themselves; i.e. if other Polls start showing up similar results, they could interpret that as they 'must' offer a 2nd Referendum.

Interesting, isn't it? Could this be the first nail in the Brexit Coffin?

What that 1,456 Sky customers when asked whether there should be a referendum on accepting the deal the govt proposes to the HoC on leaving the EU, Leave with no deal or stay in the EU, 50% said yes, 40% said no.

It's hardly surprising that a % of those polled would jump at the chance of staying in the EU when they voted to stay in two yrs ago.

It's far from damning, just common sense.

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. Sky Data is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

[DeejRC]

mx5nut said:

Even in an empty thread, the Brexit victim complex is alive and well and the insults are flowing from the "winners".

The only thing that may save us now is the grown ups have taken over negotiations after the Brexit mob failed to get anything done for two whole years.

? The same ppl are in charge ...

If there are any grown ups involved with these negotiations on any side at any time in the last 2 yrs then I freely admit - I have completely missed them! And unlike you - I spent the first yr of that period on the Continent, so had a much better view of who is involved over there!

[psi310398]

Coolbanana said:

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shift...

Pretty damning.

1st Poll to show a significant change of heart and one that Politicians will take more seriously in terms of protecting themselves; i.e. if other Polls start showing up similar results, they could interpret that as they 'must' offer a 2nd Referendum.

Interesting, isn't it? Could this be the first nail in the Brexit Coffin?

Or yet another nail in the coffins of democracy, political participation and the current political parties?

I'd assume most people would consider damage to democracy and participation to be a bad thing and many would be indifferent to the demise of the current parties.

I'm not convinced a new referendum would yield the result you think it would and would most likely divide the country further. It will be very easy to set out and sell a "treason" narrative -that May and co believe, and have always believed, that we failed to vote properly the first time and now, by sabotaging the Brexit process and implementing Project Fear II, they have created the conditions where we will be told to do our homework again. Many voters already believe the narrative and many others will not be convinced that a second vote will materially affect the state of affairs.

What good would a further referendum do anyway? It would settle nothing. What would the principled argument against yet another referendum after that one be? And another referendum, and another ad infinitum. Geese and ganders and all that.

If the outcome of the first referendum is ignored/over-ruled, I, for one, would be prepared to continue demanding Brexit for as long as it takes and using all non-violent means at my disposal to bring it about. I'm sure many others would too.

Given the behaviour of Remainers since the referendum, there is not principled reason could they give for Leavers to accept a Remain result which would not be hypocritical.

I guess, at a pinch, a referendum on the type of Brexit might be reasonable. One that offered the option of Remain would be unacceptable. After all, despite Remain bluster, that was the one option that was decisively rejected.

[The Dangerous Elk]

don'tbesilly said:

Coolbanana said:

https://news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shift...

Pretty damning.

1st Poll to show a significant change of heart and one that Politicians will take more seriously in terms of protecting themselves; i.e. if other Polls start showing up similar results, they could interpret that as they 'must' offer a 2nd Referendum.

Interesting, isn't it? Could this be the first nail in the Brexit Coffin?

What that 1,456 Sky customers when asked whether there should be a referendum on accepting the deal the govt proposes to the HoC on leaving the EU, Leave with no deal or stay in the EU, 50% said yes, 40% said no.

It's hardly surprising that a % of those polled would jump at the chance of staying in the EU when they voted to stay in two yrs ago.

It's far from damning, just common sense.

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. Sky Data is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466

[psi310398]

The Dangerous Elk said:

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466

As they, and other pollsters did in the run up to the referendum and the subsequent election. How did that go?

[crankedup]

FiF said:

crankedup said:

jsf said:

crankedup said:

I believe most of the paper pulp comes from Russia, EU will be upset that they will not be stting on the U.K.

The Cushelle factory in Manchester gets half its paper from Sweden, the other half from Brazil. 2 grades are used, long and short fibre. Combining them both in layers provides the strength and softness required. The Swedish stuff provides the strength so that's on the inside, the Brazilian stuff provides the softness, so that's on the outside.

So worst case scenario we end up with softer bog roll, but you'd have to be careful how hard you used it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bcr3rj/ins...

Happy to be corrected.

So it’s unlikely that we will be short, which is comforting. Thoughts of going back to Izal grease proof from the 1950’s would be a nightmare scenario.

Pah, you had it lucky, shared sponge on a stick soaked in vinegar. Said a Roman residing in Eboracum (York)

[crankedup]

cookie118 said:

JagLover said:

In any case the issue isnt really what way most leavers would want to leave the EU. The issue is what leavers would prefer to do if the EU continues down its current course of making everything conditional upon a "solution" to the NI border that is unacceptable to most.

The issue isn’t what leavers want. It’s what is best for the country.

Correct, which is why ‘leavers’ voted out now.

[Helicopter123]

The democratic thing to do would be to put the final deal to the people.