How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)

[psi310398]

Ghibli said:

If remain had won the referendum and there was to be another referendum with the options of.

1. Remain in the EU

2. Remain in the EU

Would that be democracy?

Sorry, I don't have access to whatever it is you are smoking so I'm finding it hard to follow your thinking.

Remain is a status quo option.

In the spirit of helpfulness, however, let's have a go.

I could conceive theoretically of, let's see, a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty; do we want to go further with the European project or stick where we are?

Oh yes, despite manifesto commitments, we weren't actually offered that one, were we?

But, yes, it is possible to envisage a binary stay set of questions. If they were relevant to situation at hand.

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

Sorry, I don't have access to whatever it is you are smoking so I'm finding it hard to follow your thinking.

Remain is a status quo option.

In the spirit of helpfulness, however, let's have a go.

I could conceive theoretically of, let's see, a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty; do we want to go further with the European project or stick where we are?

Oh yes, despite manifesto commitments, we weren't actually offered that one, were we?

But, yes, it is possible to envisage a binary stay set of questions. If they were relevant to situation at hand.

But we are talking about the options that sidick has given.

[don'tbesilly]

psi310398 said:

Ghibli said:

If remain had won the referendum and there was to be another referendum with the options of.

1. Remain in the EU

2. Remain in the EU

Would that be democracy?

Sorry, I don't have access to whatever it is you are smoking so I'm finding it hard to follow your thinking.

Remain is a status quo option.

In the spirit of helpfulness, however, let's have a go.

I could conceive theoretically of, let's see, a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty; do we want to go further with the European project or stick where we are?

Oh yes, despite manifesto commitments, we weren't actually offered that one, were we?

But, yes, it is possible to envisage a binary stay set of questions. If they were relevant to situation at hand.

You must have children, only a parent could have such patience.

[Coolbanana]

sidicks said:

1. The 48% would get the same choice as everyone else - leave with the deal or leave without the deal
2. The 48% lost the original referendum

You are steadfastly labouring under the false assumption - or wish because it suits you - that people are not allowed to change their minds and that each decision they make is a Lifetime one.

Whilst Referendums are indeed rare enough to be Lifetime decisions generally, show us where it is written in Law that they cannot be held on the same Issue within a short period of time.

The absolute fact is, the Government has within its power to call a 2nd Referendum if it chooses to and it can include a Remain option, if it chooses to. You and any other Leaver who hates that fact will have to rely upon it never happening rather that trying to debate why such an occurrence is undemocratic because you are, quite simply, wrong.

[amusingduck]

Coolbanana said:

sidicks said:

1. The 48% would get the same choice as everyone else - leave with the deal or leave without the deal
2. The 48% lost the original referendum

You are steadfastly labouring under the false assumption - or wish because it suits you - that people are not allowed to change their minds and that each decision they make is a Lifetime one.

Whilst Referendums are indeed rare enough to be Lifetime decisions generally, show us where it is written in Law that they cannot be held on the same Issue within a short period of time.

The absolute fact is, the Government has within its power to call a 2nd Referendum if it chooses to and it can include a Remain option, if it chooses to. You and any other Leaver who hates that fact will have to rely upon it never happening rather that trying to debate why such an occurrence is undemocratic because you are, quite simply, wrong.

Speaking of assumptions, why is there always an assumption that this time it'll count?

What is the difference in principle between a second referendum, and more than two? It's like people are arguing that referendums simultaneously do and don't have any permanence.

[psi310398]

Coolbanana said:

Wrong!

You, like many Leaver's on here, are Dictating that Democracy is only on your Terms.

If enough people who voted Leave in the 1st Referendum demonstrate a change of mind, they are legally, morally, ethically and Democratically allowed to voice that via a 2nd Referendum by way of a Remain option.

I have previously opined that such a move would require absolute certainty that the Electorate wanted it and that it would not be an easy decision, however, it is not impossible and we are, in fact, seeing cracks appearing amongst Leave Voters whereby some are expressing that they would rather Remain than accept No Deal or the Negotiated Deal. Those Leaver's, if sufficient in number, are entitled to be included on the Ballot.

And how are you going to demonstrate that alleged shift in sentiment? Opinion polls, which have been shown to be such utterly reliable predictors of public sentiment? Or is this just to be done on the basis of gut?

What about the large number of honest and principled Remain voters who accepted the result and are horrified at the attempts to undermine a democratic decision. Do you not think they might not vote leave to reinforce the need to respect a democratic ballot?

Your answer also doesn't deal with the right then to have third, fourth, fifth referenda, if the losing party, of either flavour, disagrees with the outcome. The Remainers have let that particular genie out of the bottle, haven't they?

[Mrr T]

psi310398 said:

Err. You might want to read the NAO report on the subject.

The EU is using Amazon, inter alios, as a reason why it can't trust the UK to collect duties on its behalf.

Here's an explanation of how Amazon and eBay are turning a blind eye to, if not actively facilitating, VAT fraud:

http://www.vatfraud.org

Amazon in Australia:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/amazon-s-amazin...

Edited by psi310398 on Monday 30th July 10:01

My local council has a covered market which it rents to traders some of those traders may be required to charge VAT but choose not to do so. Is my local council committing VAT fraud?
It is not Amazon or eBay,'s job to manage the tax affairs of people who sell through them.

[djc206]

psi310398 said:

Ghibli said:

Great, the 48% would get a vote on two options of which they want neither.

How about a vote to stay in the EU or to stay in the EU, does that sound fair?

That boat has sailed. Democratic decision and all that.

Why has it sailed? Why can’t people change their minds once all the facts and options are laid bare? What is to fear from allowing them to do so? If Brexit is still the will of the people then the result would show that no? We have had two general elections in quick succession recently, I really don’t see why the referendum is so sacred.

That said I don’t actually support a second referendum, it would only take one dangerous demagogue to convince them to vote for a no deal exit out of spite and that would hurt us all, badly. It’s not a risk worth taking in my opinion.

Regarding ships sailing: One of democracies most shameful moments involved sailing a ship from Athens to Mytilene to murder and enslave the entire population. Some claimed the ship had sailed and that nothing could be done, after a rethink and realising they’d fallen victim to demagogy a second trireme was sent after the first, double crewed so that it would catch the first to prevent the slaughter. 2500 years ago people were smart enough to realise that the ship hasn’t sailed if you can still catch it.

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

And how are you going to demonstrate that alleged shift in sentiment? Opinion polls, which have been shown to be such utterly reliable predictors of public sentiment? Or is this just to be done on the basis of gut?

What about the large number of honest and principled Remain voters who accepted the result and are horrified at the attempts to undermine a democratic decision. Do you not think they might not vote leave to reinforce the need to respect a democratic ballot?

Have you got any figures for these large numbers of remain voters, Or is it just done on the basis of gut?

[anonymous-user]

Just browsing the news and contemplating my navel and I saw this

"Deutsche Bank shifts half of euro clearing from London to Frankfurt" - I know nothing about the banking system and wondered what people who did thought?


As an aside I am listening to LBC again and they have just had Mandelson on. He had me channelling my inner Farage. Horrible.

[loafer123]

psi310398 said:

Err. You might want to read the NAO report on the subject.

The EU is using Amazon, inter alios, as a reason why it can't trust the UK to collect duties on its behalf.

Here's an explanation of how Amazon and eBay are turning a blind eye to, if not actively facilitating, VAT fraud:

http://www.vatfraud.org

Amazon in Australia:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/amazon-s-amazin...

Edited by psi310398 on Monday 30th July 10:01

One of my businesses sells alot into the EU via Amazon and is VAT registered.

In the event there is a no deal Brexit, Amazon already have a system in place which will enable us to the VAT registered in all Amazon markets in the EU, with registrations made and local VAT paid.

[JagLover]

Mrr T said:

My local council has a covered market which it rents to traders some of those traders may be required to charge VAT but choose not to do so. Is my local council committing VAT fraud?
It is not Amazon or eBay,'s job to manage the tax affairs of people who sell through them.

Does your council also operate the tills for those traders?.

Some appear desperate to justify tax fraud and is just one dividing line among many in the EU referendum.

[psi310398]

Ghibli said:

Have you got any figures for these large numbers of remain voters, Or is it just done on the basis of gut?

No, no figures. But not gut either.

You yourself can read the letters pages and online comments sections of many newspapers and political websites to see the unease expressed by Remainer voters. I said "large numbers" and am justified in my choice of words.

I believe I've even heard certain MPs saying it.

[psi310398]

desolate said:

Just browsing the news and contemplating my navel and I saw this

"Deutsche Bank shifts half of euro clearing from London to Frankfurt" - I know nothing about the banking system and wondered what people who did thought?


As an aside I am listening to LBC again and they have just had Mandelson on. He had me channelling my inner Farage. Horrible.

That could save us a regulatory problem or two. It will be interesting to see if it completes the move before it goes bust:

http://www.ifre.com/deutsche-bank-has-a-60bn-probl...

And, yes, it is wonderful that Mandelson and Blair pop up so often. I'd imagine it's 50,000 Leave votes firmed up every time.

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

No, no figures. But not gut either.

You yourself can read the letters pages and online comments sections of many newspapers and political websites to see the unease expressed by Remainer voters. I said "large numbers" and am justified in my choice of words.

I believe I've even heard certain MPs saying it.

At the same time we can also read comments from leave voters saying "this is not the Brexit I voted for" why should they have a further choice?

When we actually know what we will be getting how are we going to know if it's the will of 52% or the will of the country as a whole.

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

That could save us a regulatory problem or two. It will be interesting to see if it completes the move before it goes bust:

http://www.ifre.com/deutsche-bank-has-a-60bn-probl...

And, yes, it is wonderful that Mandelson and Blair pop up so often. I'd imagine it's 50,000 Leave votes firmed up every time.

So it's more a question of local issues within one bank rather than part of / the start of a trend?

[don'tbesilly]

psi310398 said:

desolate said:

Just browsing the news and contemplating my navel and I saw this

"Deutsche Bank shifts half of euro clearing from London to Frankfurt" - I know nothing about the banking system and wondered what people who did thought?


As an aside I am listening to LBC again and they have just had Mandelson on. He had me channelling my inner Farage. Horrible.

That could save us a regulatory problem or two. It will be interesting to see if it completes the move before it goes bust:

http://www.ifre.com/deutsche-bank-has-a-60bn-probl...

And, yes, it is wonderful that Mandelson and Blair pop up so often. I'd imagine it's 50,000 Leave votes firmed up every time.

I can't think of two better individuals than Blair and Mandelson to represent Leave every time they appear.

It's difficult to balance opinion as to which of the two is the most hated and odious, and that's across both sides of the divide be it Remain or Leave voters.

[andymadmak]

Coolbanana said:

You are steadfastly labouring under the false assumption - or wish because it suits you - that people are not allowed to change their minds and that each decision they make is a Lifetime one.

Of course people are allowed to change their mind. The question is when should that change be recognised? When it comes to a GE we vote knowing that if it all goes to hell in a hand basket we are going to get a chance to change our mind at the next GE, which is currently 5 years later (absent an extraordinary vote in the HoC)
The terms of the Referendum were clear - once in lifetime and the Government promised to implement it. It certainly wasn't " once in a lifetime or just long enough for the losing side to construct what it hopes are better arguments and demand a second go".
The context of the vote was key only in that sense. If Remain wanted to win first time round then frankly it should have put its case better. It's not like Remain didn't have a number of advantages available to it.
The Vicky Pollardesque "yeah, but no, but yeah" type of logic we are getting from some ardent Remainers is wrong headed and more than a bit embarrassing.

Coolbanana said:

Whilst Referendums are indeed rare enough to be Lifetime decisions generally, show us where it is written in Law that they cannot be held on the same Issue within a short period of time.

It isn't and your smiley shows that you know it. In fact it's an entirely specious argument.

Coolbanana said:

The absolute fact is, the Government has within its power to call a 2nd Referendum if it chooses to and it can include a Remain option, if it chooses to.

I agree with this statement 100%

Coolbanana said:

You and any other Leaver who hates that fact will have to rely upon it never happening rather that trying to debate why such an occurrence is undemocratic because you are, quite simply, wrong.

I don't think that anyone "hates that fact" - "That fact" is entirely beyond dispute. The Government could do what you say. But it won't - not if it has any sense of political self preservation. Which is probably the point when the hate kicks in, from those most ardently on the Remain side. Your frustration is palpable, but essentially you are being seen for what you are - hissy fitting, stampy footing 3 year olds who cannot accept that democracy is not delivering their desired outcomes.

Arguments over what may or may not be democratic are moot. Certainly I think that any failure to implement the outcome of the first Referendum would be undemocratic - and let's not forget that both sides in the debate were completely clear that a vote to leave the EU meant leaving the SM and the CU.

Now, the question from some Remainers appears to be " but look what we (think) we know now... surely that demands a re-vote?"

The answer to that is complex, and, for me, probably comes in the form of a few of questions:

1. Does what we (think) we know now represent a future economic picture that is materially worse than the future economic picture offered by Remain during the REF1 campaign? I'd have to say in my opinion the answer to that question is no. In fact, compared to what we were told would happen post a Brexit vote, the current picture looks far better, so there can be no justification for saying that Brexit voters did not understand the economic consequences of their vote - they surely did because Remain told them what would happen! (except it didn't happen, so Remain has no credibility here)

2. Is there any precedent in the UK in the past 100 years for not accepting and acting upon the result of a Referendum? As far as I know there is not. Which means that when people were promised that the result would be respected, they voted with that in mind. The democratic thing to do would therefore be to implement the result.

3. Is there any reason or impediment to suggest that Remain could not set about a political campaign to persuade the people of the UK to join the EU at a future date? Does leaving now mean that we have left for ever?
The answer is clearly No. There is nothing to stop those that passionately believe in the UK being part of the EU campaigning for such a future event. Of course, they would then have to explain what that future EU looks like and what we would be signing up to, but if that went to a Referendum, or indeed if a political party was set up that was focussed on achieving membership then democracy could be seen to takes its course.

Edited by andymadmak on Monday 30th July 11:09

[psi310398]

djc206 said:

Why has it sailed? Why can’t people change their minds once all the facts and options are laid bare? What is to fear from allowing them to do so? If Brexit is still the will of the people then the result would show that no? We have had two general elections in quick succession recently, I really don’t see why the referendum is so sacred.

That said I don’t actually support a second referendum, it would only take one dangerous demagogue to convince them to vote for a no deal exit out of spite and that would hurt us all, badly. It’s not a risk worth taking in my opinion.

Regarding ships sailing: One of democracies most shameful moments involved sailing a ship from Athens to Mytilene to murder and enslave the entire population. Some claimed the ship had sailed and that nothing could be done, after a rethink and realising they’d fallen victim to demagogy a second trireme was sent after the first, double crewed so that it would catch the first to prevent the slaughter. 2500 years ago people were smart enough to realise that the ship hasn’t sailed if you can still catch it.

Ah, Thucydides! That takes me back to school.

If I followed Remainer SOP, at this point I'd now be howling with synthetic outrage that you were comparing Leave to Cleon and his faction and shouting that 427 BC was a long time ago, and we should let bygones be bygones. Anyway, IIRC my Thucydides, 1000 Lesbians were murdered instead.

Mind you, the idea of invading Brussels and stringing up 1000 ringleaders by their knackers does have its appeal.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not being serious.

[psi310398]

desolate said:

So it's more a question of local issues within one bank rather than part of / the start of a trend?

Depends what you mean but the Germans are very worried. I'm sure others will move out in part or in whole. The interesting thing will be to see where they are in five years' time.

The really big issue for European industry is going to be access to capital markets, and London will be hard to replace on that front.