Light aircraft disappears with two people on board...

[anonymous-user]

The final moments of the aircraft are interesting. A slowly undulating flight path in terms of altitude, and then what looks to be a constant right turn and more rapid descent into the water? Commensurate with a loss of control or with Spatial disorientation leading to CFiT ? It would seem the later is more likely? As a VFR pilot perhaps lacking the skillset and necessary rigour to ignore their eyes/brain and follow the instruments above all else?

The initial report is deliberately un-specific as to root cause (sensibly at this time)

[Eric Mc]

Max_Torque said:

The final moments of the aircraft are interesting. A slowly undulating flight path in terms of altitude, and then what looks to be a constant right turn and more rapid descent into the water? Commensurate with a loss of control or with Spatial disorientation leading to CFiT ?

I have a strong feeling there was nothing "controlled" about this accident. Apparently the outer wing sections were not with the main wreckage. That could indicate a structural break up in the air which would have been brought about by complete loss of control and the aircraft exceeding its structural limits. When I first heard about this accident I immediately thought of this crash from 1984 -


https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=2...

This is the aircraft involved back then -

[Willhire89]

Eric Mc said:

I have a strong feeling there was nothing "controlled" about this accident. Apparently the outer wing sections were not with the main wreckage. That could indicate a structural break up

If I read the report correctly the plane hit the water with a descent rate of 7000' per minute then that is going to cause catastrophic damage in itself

As an aside I see no point whatsoever in trying to find the pilot after all this time - the chances of any part being recognisable are so remote.

Finding the ipad - now that could be helpful

[anonymous-user]

Eric Mc said:

I have a strong feeling there was nothing "controlled" about this accident.

I'm not saying you are wrong, because some sort of structural failure, either unexpected or brought on by rough handling is of course a possibility. However, this plane had one engine in the nose, and hence the front of the fuselage will have definitely continued forwards after water impact at speed (assuming the plane didn't hit in a sort of flat spin etc) and the relatively unsupported but large surface area wing tips are just bound to come off surely?

The fact the altitude and heading wandered around a bit relatively "gently" before the final impact suggests some sort of positive control input, rather than a loss of control? That wandering could of course could be due to some minor issue with the controls or flying surfaces (icing etc) or due to disorientation and hence pilot input trying to 'chase' the flight path, but the lack of mayday is more likely, given the relatively long period before eventual impact, imo, to be due to pilot issues, who is therefore much less likely to call in a mayday (because that would be to admit their fault) compared to them fighting with, but just managing to hold onto, some form of mechanical aliment?

[Eric Mc]

Max_Torque said:

I'm not saying you are wrong, because some sort of structural failure, either unexpected or brought on by rough handling is of course a possibility. However, this plane had one engine in the nose, and hence the front of the fuselage will have definitely continued forwards after water impact at speed (assuming the plane didn't hit in a sort of flat spin etc) and the relatively unsupported but large surface area wing tips are just bound to come off surely?

The fact the altitude and heading wandered around a bit relatively "gently" before the final impact suggests some sort of positive control input, rather than a loss of control? That wandering could of course could be due to some minor issue with the controls or flying surfaces (icing etc) or due to disorientation and hence pilot input trying to 'chase' the flight path, but the lack of mayday is more likely, given the relatively long period before eventual impact, imo, to be due to pilot issues, who is therefore much less likely to call in a mayday (because that would be to admit their fault) compared to them fighting with, but just managing to hold onto, some form of mechanical aliment?

The key point is WHEN the wingtips came off. If they came off at the moment the aircraft impacted the water, there is a good chance they would be fairly close to the main wreckage. If they came off earlier, they would be much further away. They weren't located with the main wreckage which could be because they came off earlier in the accident. It appears that the final rate of descent was pretty high - perhaps beyond what the airframe could sustain.

Edited by Eric Mc on Tuesday 26th February 19:02

[Willhire89]

Eric Mc said:

The key point is WHEN the wingtips came off. If they came off at the moment the aircraft impacted the water, there is a good chance they would be fairly close to the main wreckage. If they came off earlier, they would be much further away. They weren't located with the main wreckage which could be because they came off earlier in the accident. It appears that the final rate of descent was pretty high - perhaps beyond what the airframe could sustain.

Edited by Eric Mc on Tuesday 26th February 19:02

it was/is all still largely in the same place:

[aeropilot]

Eric Mc said:

The key point is WHEN the wingtips came off. If they came off at the moment the aircraft impacted the water, there is a good chance they would be fairly close to the main wreckage.

Not really.

With the sea state at the time, and wingtips being relatively light weight, more than likely the currents took them further away from the impact point as the heavier main part of the a/c carried on to the sea bed.....given the sea is only 60m deep. They may well turn up on a beach some day soon, or be a couple of hundred metres away on the sea bed. Once they found the main wreck, with the footballer inside, they've not bothered search for every last bit of wreckage.

I agree that spatial disorientation as he was trying to maintain VFR is most likely given the plotted last track, although how he was expecting to do that at night, over water in those weather conditions with little or no references, is beyond me!!

[Guvernator]

I'm obviously no expert and this is probably simplifying things greatly but how does a pilot lose his bearings? Yes I understand he was only rated for VFR but surely one of the basic skills they teach you even with that rating is to follow a course\compass heading on the instruments? Why would you deviate off course? Surely if you were on the right heading before you lost your visual cues you just keep heading on in a straight line?

[skwdenyer]

98elise said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Slightly off topic...but have you seen these glasses that correct colour blindness?

https://youtu.be/sJQYBWUqdIE

Tonker: I'm also colour blind. As I'm sure you know, but others may not, there are many variations of colour blindness; it is a family of issues, not a single syndrome. I suffer from none of the problems you recount, but I have problems in other areas (electrical resistor bands, for instance and, according to my wife, telling when some foods are cooked...).

Those glasses work for some variations. Sadly not for mine (according to the company's own self-administered test), but may well for others'. Judging by those reactions, I'd love to be one of the "lucky" few however...

[Dr Jekyll]

Guvernator said:

I'm obviously no expert and this is probably simplifying things greatly but how does a pilot lose his bearings? Yes I understand he was only rated for VFR but surely one of the basic skills they teach you even with that rating is to follow a course\compass heading on the instruments? Why would you deviate off course? Surely if you were on the right heading before you lost your visual cues you just keep heading on in a straight line?

No, when learning to fly they drum it into you to keep looking out of the window as much as possible, to avoid collisions as much as anything else. Flying by reference to instruments is surprisingly difficult at first, you don't get the subtle clues out of the corner of your eye to tell you when you are banking or descending. Even once trained you need regular practice to fly safely on instruments alone.

This pilot is reported to have had an IMC rating in which case he would have been trained to fly on instruments, but it had lapsed and he was almost certainly out of practice. Legally it would have been irrelevant even if not lapsed since he was flying a US registered aircraft and outside the UK,

[saaby93]

no pilot or personal belongings found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-47384...
Is it looking like the earlier conspiracy theories may have some ground?

[ecsrobin]

saaby93 said:

no pilot or personal belongings found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-47384...
Is it looking like the earlier conspiracy theories may have some ground?

All his personal belongs were likely in a single flight bag or similar that would be up in the cockpit with him with an impact anything could happen bag floats away he may have not had a belt on so then he floats away all out of a hole from the aircraft tearing apart.

[alfaman]

saaby93 said:

no pilot or personal belongings found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-47384...
Is it looking like the earlier conspiracy theories may have some ground?

What conspiracy theories? Aquaman spirited him away to an underwater world?

[saaby93]

alfaman said:

saaby93 said:

no pilot or personal belongings found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-47384...
Is it looking like the earlier conspiracy theories may have some ground?

What conspiracy theories? Aquaman spirited him away to an underwater world?

keep up
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/23/emiliano-salas-ex-g...

[alfaman]

saaby93 said:

keep up
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/23/emiliano-salas-ex-g...

Ah got it .... the ‘mafia’ did a hit on the weather and organised the storm / icing conditions / bad visibility / pilot stupidity .....

Maybe the pilot was in on the plot I guess .... not sure how they persuaded him to make the flight though ...

[aeropilot]

ecsrobin said:

saaby93 said:

no pilot or personal belongings found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-47384...
Is it looking like the earlier conspiracy theories may have some ground?

All his personal belongs were likely in a single flight bag or similar that would be up in the cockpit with him with an impact anything could happen bag floats away he may have not had a belt on so then he floats away all out of a hole from the aircraft tearing apart.

especially when you see the photo in the AAIB report taken under water looking towards the cockpit, showing the damage and with the radar track clearly shows that aircraft likely impacted in a steep starboard turn.

Once his body wasn't found in the a/c, there was probably not much chance of finding it.

[saaby93]

alfaman said:

saaby93 said:

keep up
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/23/emiliano-salas-ex-g...

Ah got it .... the ‘mafia’ did a hit on the weather and organised the storm / icing conditions / bad visibility / pilot stupidity .....

Maybe the pilot was in on the plot I guess .... not sure how they persuaded him to make the flight though ...

Didnt he parachute out and get picked up by that fishing boat heading to Sicily
Who would refuse a lifelong supply of icecream?

[KTF]

saaby93 said:

keep up
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/23/emiliano-salas-ex-g...

He was punching well above his weight. No doubt she was attracted to him by his good looks and charming personality rather than the almost unimaginable pile of cash the dumper truck deposited on the drive each month...

[poo at Paul's]

KTF said:

saaby93 said:

keep up
https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/23/emiliano-salas-ex-g...

He was punching well above his weight. No doubt she was attracted to him by his good looks and charming personality rather than the almost unimaginable pile of cash the dumper truck deposited on the drive each month...

All becoming clearer...….Cardiff city, sponsored by Visit Malaysia, Malaysia? MH370, disappeared in the S ocean, only it didn't as the world is flat not round, so must have been a mafia sponsored missile from diego Garcia that just ran out of fuel and hit a light ac near channel islands as it plummeted to earth......

[Pan Pan Pan]

Dr Jekyll said:

Guvernator said:

I'm obviously no expert and this is probably simplifying things greatly but how does a pilot lose his bearings? Yes I understand he was only rated for VFR but surely one of the basic skills they teach you even with that rating is to follow a course\compass heading on the instruments? Why would you deviate off course? Surely if you were on the right heading before you lost your visual cues you just keep heading on in a straight line?

No, when learning to fly they drum it into you to keep looking out of the window as much as possible, to avoid collisions as much as anything else. Flying by reference to instruments is surprisingly difficult at first, you don't get the subtle clues out of the corner of your eye to tell you when you are banking or descending. Even once trained you need regular practice to fly safely on instruments alone.

This pilot is reported to have had an IMC rating in which case he would have been trained to fly on instruments, but it had lapsed and he was almost certainly out of practice. Legally it would have been irrelevant even if not lapsed since he was flying a US registered aircraft and outside the UK,

Like any skill , it is a case of use it, or lose it, and frequent practice is needed to keep an IMC rating at a suitable skill level.
I found this out almost to my cost when crossing the channel. Whilst having a valid IMC rating, I had not practiced flying on instruments for some time, as it is not a way of flying that I particularly enjoy. I elected to take the high crossing level in the Light Aircraft Corridor which put me in and out of cloud which I was not too concerned about (after all I had an IMC rating!) nevertheless I began experiencing minor issues with holding the heading which turned out to be down to a problem with the DI`s gyro. I began fixating on getting the heading back to where it should be, by re aligning the DI with the compass at regular intervals, but this took some of my attention off the other flight instruments, I then started trying to get the other parameters back where they should have been, only to find the heading was off again, and so on until I lost control, and dropped out of my assigned altitude, through some cloud below. Fortunately the weather was good, and there was about fifteen hundred feet of clear air from the underside of the clouds to the surface, which gave me plenty of time to work out what the aircraft was doing, and get it back under control, It was however the insidious way in which control was lost, that I found most alarming. For someone who does not fly, I can only liken it to the insidious way in which people who are driving when tired, fall asleep at the wheel. One second they are awake and `apparently' thinking, and seeing things, next second they are asleep and dreaming things. Add to this situation, flying at night, and being thrown around in bad weather (which does not help when interpreting what the (in some cases conflicting) instruments are telling the pilot, and the chances of a pilot even with an IMC rating `losing it' is increased significantly.