CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 13)
Discussion
RSTurboPaul said:
SebastienClement said:
Here we go again. At this point I believe it is government policy to befuddle us by continuously u turning / leaking to the press.
king bad dream?If this is the Matrix, it is literally unreal.
Far less young people are buying their bulls
t than they would like. I don't believe the figures they release for vaccine uptake.What they don't realise is the more they blackmail, the more people will wake up.
SebastienClement said:
Here we go again. At this point I believe it is government policy to befuddle us by continuously u turning / leaking to the press.
bodhi said:
SebastienClement said:
Can't possibly be true. We found out on Monday that we were going back to normal on the 19th and any chat otherwise was a load of conspiracy nonsense. Many many people we barely hear from joined the thread just to drive this point home. There were that many, they couldn't possibly be wrong could they? This isnt over by a long way.
Young person in your Welsh family exhibiting free will and critical thinking?
Crush that with some emotional blackmail to get an injection they don't need, all the while painting them as vacuous morons interested only in mindless distractions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-57783653
Covid vaccine: Families urged to encourage under-30s jabs
Crush that with some emotional blackmail to get an injection they don't need, all the while painting them as vacuous morons interested only in mindless distractions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-57783653
Covid vaccine: Families urged to encourage under-30s jabs
BBC said:
...
Friends and families need to encourage the under-30s to get a Covid vaccine, a health chief has said.
Wales' deputy chief medical officer for vaccines Dr Gill Richardson said one-in-four 18 to 29-year-olds were not vaccinated and "the health boards can only do so much".
...
She told Gareth Lewis on BBC Radio Wales: "We need families and partners and friends to encourage that one-in-four. Everybody knows who those one-in-four are.
"If you are in those age groups and you've got a friend that hasn't yet had the vaccine... please just encourage them to go and chat, just go along and have a chat, and discuss any concerns that you have.
"The health boards can only do so much."
...
She said some people in the age group had "a lot of other things on their minds".
"The Euros for instance, there's all sorts of things, like work and studies and childcare," she said.
...
Dr Bnar Talabani is a doctor and scientist from Cardiff who encourages people to take the vaccine using social media such as TikTok and Instagram.
She said some younger people think they do not need a vaccine because they were young and well, but that did not mean they were safe from Covid.
She said: : "We focus so much on hospitalisation and deaths, which tends to be rare in young people, but sadly it can happen in young people if you're completely healthy and well. We have seen people like that end up in hospital and sadly die.
"But actually, what's more important and what people I don't think have focused on as well, is long Covid, which is just as common in young people as in middle-aged and older people.
"It's a retractable fatigue so people can't return to work, can't return to university, and are really struggling to return to school - because we've also seen it in children, adolescents - and it's also irreversible organ damage."
Friends and families need to encourage the under-30s to get a Covid vaccine, a health chief has said.
Wales' deputy chief medical officer for vaccines Dr Gill Richardson said one-in-four 18 to 29-year-olds were not vaccinated and "the health boards can only do so much".
...
She told Gareth Lewis on BBC Radio Wales: "We need families and partners and friends to encourage that one-in-four. Everybody knows who those one-in-four are.
"If you are in those age groups and you've got a friend that hasn't yet had the vaccine... please just encourage them to go and chat, just go along and have a chat, and discuss any concerns that you have.
"The health boards can only do so much."
...
She said some people in the age group had "a lot of other things on their minds".
"The Euros for instance, there's all sorts of things, like work and studies and childcare," she said.
...
Dr Bnar Talabani is a doctor and scientist from Cardiff who encourages people to take the vaccine using social media such as TikTok and Instagram.
She said some younger people think they do not need a vaccine because they were young and well, but that did not mean they were safe from Covid.
She said: : "We focus so much on hospitalisation and deaths, which tends to be rare in young people, but sadly it can happen in young people if you're completely healthy and well. We have seen people like that end up in hospital and sadly die.
"But actually, what's more important and what people I don't think have focused on as well, is long Covid, which is just as common in young people as in middle-aged and older people.
"It's a retractable fatigue so people can't return to work, can't return to university, and are really struggling to return to school - because we've also seen it in children, adolescents - and it's also irreversible organ damage."
Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
RSTurboPaul said:
Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
‘Very rare’https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
Covid trial volunteer left unable to prove double vaccination
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-577...
Oh noes, an obedient citizen is treated like us fillthy unvaccinated pondlife!
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-577...
Oh noes, an obedient citizen is treated like us fillthy unvaccinated pondlife!
RSTurboPaul said:
I am finding it hard to disagree.
This is yet another depressing piece of research that suggests people can't wait to start a two tier society:
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/majority-o...
I've actually felt slightly hopeful the past week or so - that we might have some sort of normality soon.
How stupid of me.
Anyone else feeling the need for a long walk in London again soon?
Yes.This is yet another depressing piece of research that suggests people can't wait to start a two tier society:
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/majority-o...
I've actually felt slightly hopeful the past week or so - that we might have some sort of normality soon.
How stupid of me.
Anyone else feeling the need for a long walk in London again soon?
SebastienClement said:
Here we go again. At this point I believe it is government policy to befuddle us by continuously u turning / leaking to the press.
'Plans to increase vaccination among young...'
Not 'plans to reduce hospital admissions'?
Or 'plans to reduce NHS impacts'?
Or anything else health-related?
RSTurboPaul said:
SebastienClement said:
Here we go again. At this point I believe it is government policy to befuddle us by continuously u turning / leaking to the press.
'Plans to increase vaccination among young...'
Not 'plans to reduce hospital admissions'?
Or 'plans to reduce NHS impacts'?
Or anything else health-related?
isaldiri said:
So at this point where we are currently with over 90% of the most vulnerable age groups vaccinated, do you think covid is now comparable to flu?
A sensible question which I'd love to agree with you on, though that might run the risk of us both being wrong! If everyone had been fully vaccinated by now, then I would expect the impact of COVID on mortality at this point would become much closer to that of of a really bad flu season. I think our best hope ultimately, though nothing can be certain, is to reach a steady state of learning to live with the SARS-CoV2 virus as the fifth endemic human coronavirus endemic virus against which we would nearly all have a degree of immunity, albeit with perhaps periodic waves driven by new variants. Time will tell.What then might scupper or delay that over the next few months?
1. You assume the most vulnerable are nearly all vaccinated. Yet even at 90% vaccination coverage, a vaccine that is 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital will only afford protection to 80% of the population. And nationally we are only on 65% for both jabs. At the estimated R value for Delta without any restrictions in place, current population immunity is still some way behind where it needs to be to prevent circulation of virus. Any calculations of hospitalisation rates or infection fatality rate at present will be complicated by the relatively higher levels of protection in the most vulnerable due to vaccination, and the changing and ever improving levels of immunity in the population as a whole. But until everybody is immune there will be a constantly changing mixture of COVID-naive and COVID-partially protected people getting infected, and starting from a point where COVID is in the order of ten times deadlier than flu, we won't yet be at a point where 90% or thereabouts vaccine efficacy means a population risk comparable to flu.
2. You probably assume equal distribution of coverage. But in some areas, for instance Tower Hamlets only 80% of the over 70s have had two jabs to date, and only 30% of the population there have had two jabs. Opening up next week with the loss of all protections with such high numbers of people still effectively at the same risk as they were back in March 2020 is clearly going to be risky.
3. If you are assuming that younger people (say under 50s, who are unlikely to have had two jabs so far) are at low risk of death you may inadvertently be overlooking the protective effect that social distancing and mask wearing will have had on reducing viral load and exposure dose which is about to be lost. It's one thing to say the risk of death in young people seems very low so let's abandon all precautions. If we do, the viral load that young and/or immunized people are exposed to will be much higher than any point since March last year. Whilst we do not have the results of viral challenge studies yet, evidence suggests that if you must get yourself infected with the coronavirus, you would do better to be infected with a low dose than with a ton of virus.
4. A lot of popular discussion tends to be about fatalities, which is understandable given they are relatively easy to count and tragically irreversible. But we medics are equally concerned at the impact COVID has on hospital admissions, the pressures it places on intensive care, the incredibly stringent infection control measures needed to control such a contagious virus, the long term medical complications of a new virus that is causing very real fatigue and damage to heart lung and other organs and obviously the long term impact on people's mental health and wellbeing of the pandemic.
So ultimately I expect that is where we will be heading towards, but with my professional medical hat on I would be cautious about trying to get there too soon as the virus still has a few stings left in its tail that we would do well to pay heed to.
RSTurboPaul said:
Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
Everyone knows the difference in immune responses between older and younger people, massively, even sexes. Yet these drug companies and governments have gone against this understanding to offer to al vaccine, so sad really thinking that the vaccine is for everyone....https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
CarCrazyDad said:
10 out of 120 staff in one department at my local NHS hospital are told to self isolate and cannot work for 2 weeks, they announced on
Because they come into contact with Covid
But they can go into Contact with Covid at work, without needing to isolate
I find that odd?
I cannot comment on specifics and have no idea where this is. But healthcare workers have had wearing of masks (type IIR as standard, FFP3 in high risk areas) drilled into them repeatedly since early on in the pandemic. And where worn correctly it has enabled them to work safely without the greatly increased risk you would assume they would be at as healthcare workers.Because they come into contact with Covid
But they can go into Contact with Covid at work, without needing to isolate
I find that odd?
When outbreaks of COVID occur amongst healthcare staff a detailed investigation will be undertaken to understand who has been at risk and why. From my personal experience, it usually transpires that there has been a breakdown of mask wearing somewhere - either at work people have become complacent (often in social areas; COVID loves staff coffee rooms as you have to remove your mask and they are often small and poorly ventilated so lots of virus floating in the air if someone who is infected happens to go in and remove their mask to have a drink....) Or out of work at a social gathering, football match, party etc that staff have attended together and not bothered to wear masks for.
Emphasis above mine.
sevensfun said:
RSTurboPaul said:
Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
‘Very rare’https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637
I guess it must be true now the BBC are reporting it.
Chromegrill said:
If everyone had been fully vaccinated by now, then I would expect the impact of COVID on mortality at this point would become much closer to that of of a really bad flu season.
Bearing in mind mortality has been very heavily biased in the older groups who are the ones with 80+ if not 90% vaccination that provides ~95% of protection from severe disease, well whether or not 'everyone one has been vaccinated' isn't going to have a major difference to now.Chromegrill said:
1. You assume the most vulnerable are nearly all vaccinated. Yet even at 90% vaccination coverage, a vaccine that is 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital will only afford protection to 80% of the population. And nationally we are only on 65% for both jabs. At the estimated R value for Delta without any restrictions in place, current population immunity is still some way behind where it needs to be to prevent circulation of virus. Any calculations of hospitalisation rates or infection fatality rate at present will be complicated by the relatively higher levels of protection in the most vulnerable due to vaccination, and the changing and ever improving levels of immunity in the population as a whole. But until everybody is immune there will be a constantly changing mixture of COVID-naive and COVID-partially protected people getting infected, and starting from a point where COVID is in the order of ten times deadlier than flu, we won't yet be at a point where 90% or thereabouts vaccine efficacy means a population risk comparable to flu.
2. You probably assume equal distribution of coverage. But in some areas, for instance Tower Hamlets only 80% of the over 70s have had two jabs to date, and only 30% of the population there have had two jabs. Opening up next week with the loss of all protections with such high numbers of people still effectively at the same risk as they were back in March 2020 is clearly going to be risky.
I am assuming most of the vulnerable who want to be vaccinated have done so by now. If the rest choose not to be, well that's their choice. At this point it is no longer a requirement for society to have to take on any more restrictions to protect people who are not already choosing their best option. And again as per above, flu mortality risk is (considerably) greater in younger age groups than covid so protection from severe illness in the under 30s or even under 40s is not a major absolute risk reduction because that absolute risk is low anyway.2. You probably assume equal distribution of coverage. But in some areas, for instance Tower Hamlets only 80% of the over 70s have had two jabs to date, and only 30% of the population there have had two jabs. Opening up next week with the loss of all protections with such high numbers of people still effectively at the same risk as they were back in March 2020 is clearly going to be risky.
Chromegrill said:
3. If you are assuming that younger people (say under 50s, who are unlikely to have had two jabs so far) are at low risk of death you may inadvertently be overlooking the protective effect that social distancing and mask wearing will have had on reducing viral load and exposure dose which is about to be lost. It's one thing to say the risk of death in young people seems very low so let's abandon all precautions. If we do, the viral load that young and/or immunized people are exposed to will be much higher than any point since March last year. Whilst we do not have the results of viral challenge studies yet, evidence suggests that if you must get yourself infected with the coronavirus, you would do better to be infected with a low dose than with a ton of virus.
4. A lot of popular discussion tends to be about fatalities, which is understandable given they are relatively easy to count and tragically irreversible. But we medics are equally concerned at the impact COVID has on hospital admissions, the pressures it places on intensive care, the incredibly stringent infection control measures needed to control such a contagious virus, the long term medical complications of a new virus that is causing very real fatigue and damage to heart lung and other organs and obviously the long term impact on people's mental health and wellbeing of the pandemic.
So ultimately I expect that is where we will be heading towards, but with my professional medical hat on I would be cautious about trying to get there too soon as the virus still has a few stings left in its tail that we would do well to pay heed to.
Ah so the zero covid favourite of long covid and such that..... mainly consists of self reported long covid symptoms where funnily enough quite a lot of people reporting them don't seem to have much evidence of prior infection. 4. A lot of popular discussion tends to be about fatalities, which is understandable given they are relatively easy to count and tragically irreversible. But we medics are equally concerned at the impact COVID has on hospital admissions, the pressures it places on intensive care, the incredibly stringent infection control measures needed to control such a contagious virus, the long term medical complications of a new virus that is causing very real fatigue and damage to heart lung and other organs and obviously the long term impact on people's mental health and wellbeing of the pandemic.
So ultimately I expect that is where we will be heading towards, but with my professional medical hat on I would be cautious about trying to get there too soon as the virus still has a few stings left in its tail that we would do well to pay heed to.
If you could point me to when the last deadly variant of OC43/NL63/229E or HKU1 was btw I'd be quite interested because I'm not exactly seeing why 'a new variant of sars-cov2' is so liable to be such a terrifying thought once the virus cycles it's way through the population at least once. Which it shortly will unless we continually try to stop it from doing so and then end up worrying it does indeed start to cycle through the population afterwards.
Chromegrill said:
Please remind me for comparison what is the risk of heart abnormalities in young people after COVID infection? Because we do have data for that too.
hthhttps://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/setting-the-re...
RSTurboPaul said:
Just a THIRD of staff say they will return to their workplace full-time after work from home rules are axed on July 19 - and almost a FIFTH say they won't return at all
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9772419/B...
Also on that page:
Let's see shall we? I suspect that there is a silent majority not busy filling in polls or making a fuss on social media who will simply drop the mask bullshttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9772419/B...
Also on that page:
DM said:
Masks look to be here to stay as a poll showed three-quarters of Britons plan to keep wearing them on public transport.
An exclusive poll for MailOnline has found that 72 per cent of the public are likely to don coverings to go on the train, Tube or bus after they become voluntary on 'Freedom Day'.
Two-thirds say they will keep the habit in shops and cinemas - while 32 per cent even expect to do so in parks, according to the research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
Some 64 per cent would back businesses barring customers who refuse to put on masks, and significant proportions would feel uncomfortable inside with others bare-faced.
An exclusive poll for MailOnline has found that 72 per cent of the public are likely to don coverings to go on the train, Tube or bus after they become voluntary on 'Freedom Day'.
Two-thirds say they will keep the habit in shops and cinemas - while 32 per cent even expect to do so in parks, according to the research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
Some 64 per cent would back businesses barring customers who refuse to put on masks, and significant proportions would feel uncomfortable inside with others bare-faced.
t as soon as possible and quietly get on with their lives. If so, you'll soon see a lot of the mask zealots quietly follow suit.
Fingers crossed.
Chromegrill said:
Please remind me for comparison what is the risk of heart abnormalities in young people after COVID infection? Because we do have data for that too.
We do have data for that yes. The answer is "not really a thing, with no records of it landing anyone in hospital. Can we say the same for the Pfizer jab? https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/setting-the-re...
Ari said:
Let's see shall we? I suspect that there is a silent majority not busy filling in polls or making a fuss on social media who will simply drop the mask bullst as soon as possible and quietly get on with their lives.
If so, you'll soon see a lot of the mask zealots quietly follow suit.
Fingers crossed.
Always worth bearing in mind when looking at polling around Covid, people may be behind the restrictions, but when you start asking slightly deeper questions around trade-offs and whether the cure is worse than the disease, the picture changes somewhat - good read on unherd about this.t as soon as possible and quietly get on with their lives. If so, you'll soon see a lot of the mask zealots quietly follow suit.
Fingers crossed.
https://unherd.com/thepost/pro-lockdown-polling-is...
Chromegrill said:
A sensible question which I'd love to agree with you on, though that might run the risk of us both being wrong! If everyone had been fully vaccinated by now, then I would expect the impact of COVID on mortality at this point would become much closer to that of of a really bad flu season. I think our best hope ultimately, though nothing can be certain, is to reach a steady state of learning to live with the SARS-CoV2 virus as the fifth endemic human coronavirus endemic virus against which we would nearly all have a degree of immunity, albeit with perhaps periodic waves driven by new variants. Time will tell.
What then might scupper or delay that over the next few months?
1. You assume the most vulnerable are nearly all vaccinated. Yet even at 90% vaccination coverage, a vaccine that is 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital will only afford protection to 80% of the population. And nationally we are only on 65% for both jabs. At the estimated R value for Delta without any restrictions in place, current population immunity is still some way behind where it needs to be to prevent circulation of virus. Any calculations of hospitalisation rates or infection fatality rate at present will be complicated by the relatively higher levels of protection in the most vulnerable due to vaccination, and the changing and ever improving levels of immunity in the population as a whole. But until everybody is immune there will be a constantly changing mixture of COVID-naive and COVID-partially protected people getting infected, and starting from a point where COVID is in the order of ten times deadlier than flu, we won't yet be at a point where 90% or thereabouts vaccine efficacy means a population risk comparable to flu.
2. You probably assume equal distribution of coverage. But in some areas, for instance Tower Hamlets only 80% of the over 70s have had two jabs to date, and only 30% of the population there have had two jabs. Opening up next week with the loss of all protections with such high numbers of people still effectively at the same risk as they were back in March 2020 is clearly going to be risky.
3. If you are assuming that younger people (say under 50s, who are unlikely to have had two jabs so far) are at low risk of death you may inadvertently be overlooking the protective effect that social distancing and mask wearing will have had on reducing viral load and exposure dose which is about to be lost. It's one thing to say the risk of death in young people seems very low so let's abandon all precautions. If we do, the viral load that young and/or immunized people are exposed to will be much higher than any point since March last year. Whilst we do not have the results of viral challenge studies yet, evidence suggests that if you must get yourself infected with the coronavirus, you would do better to be infected with a low dose than with a ton of virus.
4. A lot of popular discussion tends to be about fatalities, which is understandable given they are relatively easy to count and tragically irreversible. But we medics are equally concerned at the impact COVID has on hospital admissions, the pressures it places on intensive care, the incredibly stringent infection control measures needed to control such a contagious virus, the long term medical complications of a new virus that is causing very real fatigue and damage to heart lung and other organs and obviously the long term impact on people's mental health and wellbeing of the pandemic.
So ultimately I expect that is where we will be heading towards, but with my professional medical hat on I would be cautious about trying to get there too soon as the virus still has a few stings left in its tail that we would do well to pay heed to.
It appears based on your analysis we remain unsafe until the population is 100% vaccinated. What then might scupper or delay that over the next few months?
1. You assume the most vulnerable are nearly all vaccinated. Yet even at 90% vaccination coverage, a vaccine that is 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital will only afford protection to 80% of the population. And nationally we are only on 65% for both jabs. At the estimated R value for Delta without any restrictions in place, current population immunity is still some way behind where it needs to be to prevent circulation of virus. Any calculations of hospitalisation rates or infection fatality rate at present will be complicated by the relatively higher levels of protection in the most vulnerable due to vaccination, and the changing and ever improving levels of immunity in the population as a whole. But until everybody is immune there will be a constantly changing mixture of COVID-naive and COVID-partially protected people getting infected, and starting from a point where COVID is in the order of ten times deadlier than flu, we won't yet be at a point where 90% or thereabouts vaccine efficacy means a population risk comparable to flu.
2. You probably assume equal distribution of coverage. But in some areas, for instance Tower Hamlets only 80% of the over 70s have had two jabs to date, and only 30% of the population there have had two jabs. Opening up next week with the loss of all protections with such high numbers of people still effectively at the same risk as they were back in March 2020 is clearly going to be risky.
3. If you are assuming that younger people (say under 50s, who are unlikely to have had two jabs so far) are at low risk of death you may inadvertently be overlooking the protective effect that social distancing and mask wearing will have had on reducing viral load and exposure dose which is about to be lost. It's one thing to say the risk of death in young people seems very low so let's abandon all precautions. If we do, the viral load that young and/or immunized people are exposed to will be much higher than any point since March last year. Whilst we do not have the results of viral challenge studies yet, evidence suggests that if you must get yourself infected with the coronavirus, you would do better to be infected with a low dose than with a ton of virus.
4. A lot of popular discussion tends to be about fatalities, which is understandable given they are relatively easy to count and tragically irreversible. But we medics are equally concerned at the impact COVID has on hospital admissions, the pressures it places on intensive care, the incredibly stringent infection control measures needed to control such a contagious virus, the long term medical complications of a new virus that is causing very real fatigue and damage to heart lung and other organs and obviously the long term impact on people's mental health and wellbeing of the pandemic.
So ultimately I expect that is where we will be heading towards, but with my professional medical hat on I would be cautious about trying to get there too soon as the virus still has a few stings left in its tail that we would do well to pay heed to.
1. How does Covid immunity obtained without vaccine impact on your theory that 100% vaccination is required?
2. As a NHS doctor do you support the vaccination of children with experimental vaccines to achieve 100% vaccination coverage? It appears you do.
3. Why hasn’t the NHS already put in place the necessary processes and facilities to isolate Covid infected patients and solved the high Covid cross infection rates within hospitals?
4. How is the NHS planning to deal with increased inpatients (Covid or otherwise) this winter?
5. What is the NHS doing to quickly reduce the 12m backlog of routine operations and thousands of advanced cases of cancer and other traditional illnesses and does achieving a high percentage of Covid vaccinations by population take precedence?
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