The economic consequences of Brexit

[Garvin]

don4l said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

I've been saying for a long time that it is a complete waste of time trying to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.

This just proves that, once again, I was absolutely right.

Let's get negotiating with the rest of the world.

Hold on, it looks like the EU is having second thoughts. They may take their usual approach of telling the Walloons that they got the result of their vote wrong and to do it again . . . . . and again . . . .

[jjlynn27]

jsf said:

jjlynn27 said:

jsf said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

There we have what? Decent country? Which are decent and which are not so decent countries? The sticking point is ISDS same as with TTIP. You could educate yourself of what that would mean, or you can just type something as meaningless as above.

Decent country, lol.

Maybe you could point me to the thread where you argued against the EU-Canada deal when the UK agreed it was a good deal and told the EU we would ratify it.

There are countries and their governments who we would be happy to do business with and who we share similar political and cultural views, I would suggest Canada is one of the most aligned countries to the UK and EU in that respect.

You could of course look up which countries and regimes we currently don't wish to work with on the UK, EU and UN sanctions and embargo lists. Some have limited embargo's on goods such as arms and munitions, some more widespread.

Search facility is working quite well. I was, and still am, very much against TTIP, if it includes ISDS. Same objection applies to CETA.
You can still have for 'decent countries'.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

sidicks said:

You keep forgetting where the majority of the money comes from!

How much did Slovakia contribute to the EU budget...?

You keep making demonstrably false statements, only you know why.

How many net contributors are there to the EU budget? I should have said a significant proportion comes form the Uk.

jjlynn27 said:

It's totally irrelevant where the money came from. That factory was the most expensive plant within PSA group. It would still be the most expensive plant, even with necessary investment to produce new model.

Loan from EIB was not conditioned by 'contribution to EU budget'. Where did majority of money come from for loan of E450m to Southampton in 2010?

Totally irrelevant? If the UK is providing a significant amount of the funding, wouldn't this be better spent on supporting our own businesses?

jjlynn27 said:

Not economically viable, not sure which part is confusing you. No, it wouldn't be 'because of massive economic discrepanciesi in different countriees within the EU'. Turkey is not in the EU. Southampton was doomed as soon as Ford started producing transits in Turkey. If anything it was kept alive by cheap loans from EIB over the years.

Why are costs so much higher in the UK?

jjlynn27 said:

Companies move production around all the time. It's not a very hard concept to grasp[/b]. Kuicely was producing 170-180k pa significantly cheaper than Southampton. It's really that simple.

And yet people like you have made a massive thing about positioning any current proposal to move location as solely due to Brexit...

[chrispmartha]

jsf said:

RYH64E said:

sidicks said:

Straw man nonsense.

1. You don't current trade with Canada
2. You won't trade with Canada post Brexit with or without a trade agreement.

Not true, I do trade with Canada, not much but enough to know it's much easier to trade within the EU, for geographic reasons if nothing else.

From most small regional airports in the UK you can get to many European destinations, there and back in a day for around £50, small business owners and representatives do so every day of the week, it's easy. We're never going to have that access to the RotW, regardless of any free trade agreements.

Why do you need to travel there? Can you not do your business using telecoms technology?

You don't think businesses need to send people to international clients at all? Not everytucan be done via the internet. And if everything was done via the internet it is much easier conducting business in europe with that as well, time difference can be a big factor.

[sidicks]

chrispmartha said:

You don't think businesses need to send people to international clients at all? Not everytucan be done via the internet. And if everything was done via the internet it is much easier conducting business in europe with that as well, time difference can be a big factor.

Yes, it's easier to get to Europe rather than some other destinations.

No-one is suggesting trading with Canada instead of trading with the EU.

HTH.

[chrispmartha]

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

You don't think businesses need to send people to international clients at all? Not everytucan be done via the internet. And if everything was done via the internet it is much easier conducting business in europe with that as well, time difference can be a big factor.

Yes, it's easier to get to Europe rather than some other destinations.

No-one is suggesting trading with Canada instead of trading with the EU.

HTH.

No one's suggesting you suggested that

[RYH64E]

jsf said:

Why do you need to travel there? Can you not do your business using telecoms technology?

Sometimes you can and sometimes you can't, often a site visit is unavoidable, as was the case last time I had to go to Canada. Anyway, I find that people deal with people and spending time with customers rarely goes unrewarded, most of the best deals I've done have been done face to face, often during lunch or dinner.

[avinalarf]

Mrr T said:

So that the limit of how you think social cohesion works? You must have been to some odd cooking classes. Social cohesion is better defined as society working toward the benefit of all members of society. I see no evidence EU immigration has effected that. I do see lots of evidence the Brexit vote has had a negative effect on social cohesion.

Dear Tony
I love everybody ,white ,black,green,pink,Christian,Jew ,Muslims etc.......I don't give a feck.
I also love to travel and when I travel I respect and enjoy and celebrate the different cultures and traditions of those countries.
I try to avoid very touristy places and expat areas because I prefer to see how the locals live their lives.
Even if I'm visiting a country for a short holiday I teach myself a few words and phrases,I find most locals appreciate that.
I take out travel insurance so that if I fall ill I can have hospital treatment.
If I were to live in another country I would expect to have to fend for myself and my family......pay my own way.
Now in your Utopia where anybody in the EU and their family can breeze into the UK and be invited to benefit almost immediately from a social and health system that they haven't paid a penny towards .....that gives me the hump.
When that level of immigration is uncontrolled and starts putting a strain on our already overstretched infrastructure ....that gives me the hump.
I don't blame the immigrant.....I blame the lack of sensible and prudent checks and balances that politicians appear powerless to create.

[Garvin]

sidicks said:

Yes, it'ds easier to get to Europe rather than some other destinations.

No-one is suggesting trading with Canada instead of trading with the EU.

HTH.

I, too, am having difficulty trying to understand what the precise problem is here. Following Brexit it is not going to take longer to get anywhere in Europe than it does now, free trade agreement or not. If a free trade agreement with Canada (or any other country in the RoW for that matter) is struck then that will make it easier for small businesses to do trade with them.

I understand the concern that things could get more difficult to trade with the EU if the politicians get silly about Brexit but a) it will not be impossible; and b) in the meantime, the exchange rate must be a complete boon for small businesses exporting to, frankly, anywhere in the world.

If Sterling remains weak then businesses have some compensation to use towards the more difficult trading environment. Indeed, i suspect those who are taking full advantage of the export opportunity will probably be in a better net position even with more difficult trading conditions.

The government will want to do the best for business, big and small, or is there a feeling that what is good for big business is not also good for small businesses? Whilst Brexit is being negotiated then perhaps small businesses should be looking at and developing a plan B in case the worst happens.

Things change. Those who sit around moaning about the st that happens will suffer more than those who get off their arses and work through the problems.

The fact is that Brexit will happen, therefore small businesses have no option but to address the potential issues.

[RYH64E]

avinalarf said:

Dear Tony
I love everybody ,white ,black,green,pink,Christian,Jew ,Muslims etc.......I don't give a feck.
I also love to travel and when I travel I respect and enjoy and celebrate the different cultures and traditions of those countries.
I try to avoid very touristy places and expat areas because I prefer to see how the locals live their lives.
Even if I'm visiting a country for a short holiday I teach myself a few words and phrases,I find most locals appreciate that.
I take out travel insurance so that if I fall ill I can have hospital treatment.
If I were to live in another country I would expect to have to fend for myself and my family......pay my own way.
Now in your Utopia where anybody in the EU and their family can breeze into the UK and be invited to benefit almost immediately from a social and health system that they haven't paid a penny towards .....that gives me the hump.
When that level of immigration is uncontrolled and starts putting a strain on our already overstretched infrastructure ....that gives me the hump.
I don't blame the immigrant.....I blame the lack of sensible and prudent checks and balances that politicians appear powerless to create.

The problem you describe is a UK problem not an EU problem, the last time I needed treatment in France I handed over my EH1C card and the receptionist shook her head and pointed to the credit card machine. If the French can charge a UK citizen for treatment there's no reason we couldn't do the same, within the EU.

[avinalarf]

sidicks said:

Straw man nonsense.

1. You don't current trade with Canada
2. You won't trade with Canada post Brexit with or without a trade agreement.

1. You don't current......?
Did you mean ......You don't currant ?
Or did you mean ....You don't currently ?

Touché

[///ajd]

JagLover said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

sidicks said:

I'm not sure that the UK's trade requirements should be too focussed on 'small business such as yours'!

How many sacrifices are there going to be in brexit?

It is natural that where you move from a single market to trading with Europe on the same terms as anywhere else that there will be some disruption and smaller firms will perhaps be less able to deal with that so may reduce their exports to Europe, but then of course the reverse also applies to European exports here.

Despite its proximity Europe already only accounted for 45% of our exports and that share would inevitable fall.

Some sense of perspective is required here. The Economist had one of its periodic scare stories about Brexit today, but the worse case hard Brexit scenario they cite is GDP being 7.5% lower in 15 years time than it would have otherwise been.

7.5% of GDP in order to maintain hard won democratic freedoms, and to have a chance of a country that works for the many rather than the few.

7.5% of nearly $3bn GDP. As we're heading for parity thats over £200Bn a year.

Thats £4Bn a week on the side of the big red bus for the gullible.

And you think that will make life better for the poor.

[davepoth]

jjlynn27 said:

Search facility is working quite well. I was, and still am, very much against TTIP, if it includes ISDS. Same objection applies to CETA.
You can still have for 'decent countries'.

So how do you feel about all of the other FTAs the EU has? With the exception of the EFTA countries they all have some form of ISDS. Should we cancel all of those too?

If we don't have ISDS, what other method of dispute resolution would you like to use?

[sidicks]

///ajd said:

7.5% of nearly $3bn GDP. As we're heading for parity thats over £200Bn a year.

Thats £4Bn a week on the side of the big red bus for the gullible.

And you think that will make life better for the poor.

You're confusing personal opinion and biased journalism with fact.

[anonymous-user]

RYH64E said:

jsf said:

Why do you need to travel there? Can you not do your business using telecoms technology?

Sometimes you can and sometimes you can't, often a site visit is unavoidable, as was the case last time I had to go to Canada. Anyway, I find that people deal with people and spending time with customers rarely goes unrewarded, most of the best deals I've done have been done face to face, often during lunch or dinner.

That's fair enough.

One of the first things May said when she became PM was she was going to set up an embassy department in major world regions that had people on the ground who spoke the local language and understood the local economy and laws, UK business could contact these people in order to help trade grow.

That should hopefully help, but obviously every business has their requirements which would benefit by variable amounts from this sort of initiative. It's a good sign to UK and world business that we are serious about growing international trade, which has to be a good thing.

[chrispmartha]

Garvin said:

sidicks said:

Yes, it'ds easier to get to Europe rather than some other destinations.

No-one is suggesting trading with Canada instead of trading with the EU.

HTH.

I, too, am having difficulty trying to understand what the precise problem is here. Following Brexit it is not going to take longer to get anywhere in Europe than it does now, free trade agreement or not. If a free trade agreement with Canada (or any other country in the RoW for that matter) is struck then that will make it easier for small businesses to do trade with them.

I understand the concern that things could get more difficult to trade with the EU if the politicians get silly about Brexit but a) it will not be impossible; and b) in the meantime, the exchange rate must be a complete boon for small businesses exporting to, frankly, anywhere in the world.

If Sterling remains weak then businesses have some compensation to use towards the more difficult trading environment. Indeed, i suspect those who are taking full advantage of the export opportunity will probably be in a better net position even with more difficult trading conditions.

The government will want to do the best for business, big and small, or is there a feeling that what is good for big business is not also good for small businesses? Whilst Brexit is being negotiated then perhaps small businesses should be looking at and developing a plan B in case the worst happens.

Things change. Those who sit around moaning about the st that happens will suffer more than those who get off their arses and work through the problems.

The fact is that Brexit will happen, therefore small businesses have no option but to address the potential issues.

You say your struggling to understand the problem but then go on to outline exactly what the problem could potentially be, brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.

I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.

[avinalarf]

RYH64E said:

avinalarf said:

Dear Tony
I love everybody ,white ,black,green,pink,Christian,Jew ,Muslims etc.......I don't give a feck.
I also love to travel and when I travel I respect and enjoy and celebrate the different cultures and traditions of those countries.
I try to avoid very touristy places and expat areas because I prefer to see how the locals live their lives.
Even if I'm visiting a country for a short holiday I teach myself a few words and phrases,I find most locals appreciate that.
I take out travel insurance so that if I fall ill I can have hospital treatment.
If I were to live in another country I would expect to have to fend for myself and my family......pay my own way.
Now in your Utopia where anybody in the EU and their family can breeze into the UK and be invited to benefit almost immediately from a social and health system that they haven't paid a penny towards .....that gives me the hump.
When that level of immigration is uncontrolled and starts putting a strain on our already overstretched infrastructure ....that gives me the hump.
I don't blame the immigrant.....I blame the lack of sensible and prudent checks and balances that politicians appear powerless to create.

The problem you describe is a UK problem not an EU problem, the last time I needed treatment in France I handed over my EH1C card and the receptionist shook her head and pointed to the credit card machine. If the French can charge a UK citizen for treatment there's no reason we couldn't do the same, within the EU.

I am aware of that but ,as I understand it,one EU member cannot discriminate against the inhabitants of another EU country.
I don't know how French law applies in the situation you describe.
It might well be that other EU countries choose to interpret EU law less rigorously than the UK.

[sidicks]

chrispmartha said:

You say your struggling to understand the problem but then go on to outline exactly what the problem could potentially be, brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.

I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.

I'm a bit tired of those in favour of remaining in the EU, seeking to use biased statistics and flawed opinions to justify their positions.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 16:05

[JagLover]

jjlynn27 said:

JagLover said:

Mark Carney is almost certainly one of the worst central bankers we have ever had.

The supply of money was already surging (growing 14.7% in the three months to end July'16) and the pound was under pressure BEFORE he then cut interest rates by a further 1/4 percent and increased quantitative easing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/12/why...

I think we are in a very dangerous situation and one in which some are deliberately trying to engineering stagflation in one last desperate attempt to reverse the referendum decision.

He being? I was under impression that interest rates are decided by MPC.

Fair point to some extent but allot depends on the makeup of the MPC and the guidance they are being given by the BOE.

I know of at least one former MPC member, who supported the emergency measures in 2008, but who believes interest rates should have increased somewhat from 2011 onwards, let alone been reduced in the circumstances of 2016.

Lets recap

Unemployment is 4.9%
Broad money supply is increasing by 14.7%
Due to the unbalanced, debt fuelled, nature of the recovery the current account deficit stands at 7% of GDP
House prices are rising by 5.3% per annum

The central bank response is lower interest rates and more QE and then to blame all of any further currency falls (after you have just announced your intention to debauch the currency) on Brexit.

In monetary policy this seems as mad as the "Barber" boom was in fiscal policy terms.

Edited by JagLover on Saturday 22 October 16:04

[chrispmartha]

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

You say your struggling to understand the problem but then go on to outline exactly what the problem could potentially be, brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.

I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.

I'm a bit tired of those in favour of remaining in the UK, seeking to use biased statistics and flawed opinions to justify their positions.

Are you not wanting to remain in the UK then, seems a bit drastic ;-)

Be honest, there's been a boat load of biased statistics and flawed opinions from every side