How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Slagathore said:
But as was discussed earlier, if they start more help to buy schemes, they can keep an element of demand there and prop prices up for a bit.
Construction industry is a big employer as well, so benefit of job creation comes along with it, but I genuinely don't think they could build fast enough to have a major impact.
Im not sure there are enough mugs left with a deposit and enough income. Its all nonsense. Prices will collapse anyway. More houses will just add fuel to the fireConstruction industry is a big employer as well, so benefit of job creation comes along with it, but I genuinely don't think they could build fast enough to have a major impact.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/u...
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
PrinceRupert said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/u...
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
I am not sure how this tallies with a second wave and/or local lockdowns for the next 12-18 months.UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
PrinceRupert said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/u...
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
The actual text is less assertive, stating it is early days and there are a range of risks including further unemployment.UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
Just in the last few days, there have been further cuts announced at Airbus, Upper Crust, Jet2, TM Lewin closing all of their shops, Arcadia, Harrods, John Lewis, Ryanair, Harveys e.t.c
Furlough protections are still in force and this level of unemployment keeps pushing through (these aren't all junior roles either).
Not sure if it's just south east London, but I am seeing quite a bit more supply come on. Most days I get 3-5 new detached properties coming on in my search areas with a number of reductions on some. A couple have dropped by 150k (one was at 1.2m, another at 1.4m), quite a few have had smaller reductions on asking of £50-75k. Another one that was SSTC is back on the market and at £75k less than it's listed start of June asking price.
As usual only time will tell, the last two nationwide results have been pretty dire (but as discussed, the volumes were always expected to be, just interesting that the values have fallen despite there being lots of protests to any kind of reduction happening) . However again this is an average across the whole country.
I am still expecting May/June sales to come through and lift the market for a short term before falling again in Q4. Equally there is lots of talk of certain areas lifting the overall market, whilst everything I have read seems to suggests London isn't faring so well.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 1st July 14:25
PrinceRupert said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/u...
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
The second to last paragraph from that article:UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
The Guardian said:
Haldane said inflation could be about one percentage point higher within two years than current Bank forecasts. This could require Threadneedle Street to raise interest rates by about one percentage point to hit its government-set 2% target.
I've never seen any suggestion that they might raise rates as quickly/high as that, from 0.1% to 1.1%. If they did, it would surely be incompatible with any sort of quick recovery?So, what they mean is - inflation will rise, but we won't raise interest rates and let it continue to do so. Sounds about right...
. . . . and BOOM, exactly as I mentioned a few weeks ago. Great news the the UK Government are doing the right thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
Some slightly odd anecdotal evidence, and not totally house price related.
A post on our local FB page popped up this morning - it was a young lady looking for a job as it transpired she'd been made redundant. The post turned into a very open conversation between 3 ladies who live local to me but did not know each other. They'd each been made redundant this week and it came as a total shock to each of them. It appears they had assumed that as they'd not been furloughed their job security was rock solid. 2 had been at their firms for in excess of 15 years, one had just bought a new car (post lockdown) and another had just booked a summer holiday abroad.
As the conversation evolved it was clear it had not crossed any of their minds what might have been coming - the redundancies were a total shock. I suspect there's a lot of people out there with the same outlook who might be in for a shock shortly. The end of Furlough is going to be interesting.
I believe we're in a very strange bubble at the moment where the reality of the situation is totally lost on many.
Back on topic - Redrow have announced they intend to pay back all the furlough money they have received from the Gov.
A post on our local FB page popped up this morning - it was a young lady looking for a job as it transpired she'd been made redundant. The post turned into a very open conversation between 3 ladies who live local to me but did not know each other. They'd each been made redundant this week and it came as a total shock to each of them. It appears they had assumed that as they'd not been furloughed their job security was rock solid. 2 had been at their firms for in excess of 15 years, one had just bought a new car (post lockdown) and another had just booked a summer holiday abroad.
As the conversation evolved it was clear it had not crossed any of their minds what might have been coming - the redundancies were a total shock. I suspect there's a lot of people out there with the same outlook who might be in for a shock shortly. The end of Furlough is going to be interesting.
I believe we're in a very strange bubble at the moment where the reality of the situation is totally lost on many.
Back on topic - Redrow have announced they intend to pay back all the furlough money they have received from the Gov.
PrinceRupert said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/u...
UK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/house-prices-nationwide-falll-coronavirus-a4485066.htmlUK on course for a V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England
V6Alfisti said:
The actual text is less assertive, stating it is early days and there are a range of risks including further unemployment.
Just in the last few days, there have been further cuts announced at Airbus, Upper Crust, Jet2, TM Lewin closing all of their shops, Arcadia, Harrods, John Lewis, Ryanair, Harveys e.t.c
Over on one of the CV19 threads, people are asserting that these job losses are totally down to the effects of covid and the jobs will return after the immediate crisis.Just in the last few days, there have been further cuts announced at Airbus, Upper Crust, Jet2, TM Lewin closing all of their shops, Arcadia, Harrods, John Lewis, Ryanair, Harveys e.t.c
If that does happen it would make the V-shape look more likely, but my view is that it covid is only the final straw in a long term shake-out of inefficiencies in some of the sectors. If TM Lewin open up more retail shops next year, I'll admit I was wrong, otherwise I think we are in for a bit of a longer haul...
V6Alfisti said:
Not sure if it's just south east London, but I am seeing quite a bit more supply come on. Most days I get 3-5 new detached properties coming on in my search areas with a number of reductions on some. A couple have dropped by 150k (one was at 1.2m, another at 1.4m), quite a few have had smaller reductions on asking of £50-75k. Another one that was SSTC is back on the market and at £75k less than it's listed start of June asking price.
Where I am in SW London suburbs, it's business as usual, as if there hadn't been a break at all. By that I mean that the sought-after, larger properties are still selling almost as soon as they come on the market and the flats are mainly still sitting there at slightly reduced prices. Supply better rather than worse, but hasn't moved much.AyBee said:
Colour me shocked, house prices dropped a little following a period extended lockdown. We are at the bottom of the V ...Andy20vt said:
. . . . and BOOM, exactly as I mentioned a few weeks ago. Great news the the UK Government are doing the right thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
It certainly might give the developers in areas like Nine Elms a bit of a boost if there is a sudden influx of people used to living in high rise accommodation for seemingly stupid money. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
PrinceRupert said:
AyBee said:
Colour me shocked, house prices dropped a little following a period extended lockdown. We are at the bottom of the V ...It doesn't mean house prices won't do something different, but if we are at the bottom of the recession now and start to post positive economic growth figures straight away, I'd be astounded.
kingston12 said:
Where I am in SW London suburbs, it's business as usual, as if there hadn't been a break at all. By that I mean that the sought-after, larger properties are still selling almost as soon as they come on the market and the flats are mainly still sitting there at slightly reduced prices. Supply better rather than worse, but hasn't moved much.
Yep that's certainly different to what I am seeing in SE for large desirable homes, although they were doing ok in Jan/Feb of this year i.e selling.However again the areas/streets all differ, so within the realms of possibility.
In terms of job returns - we certainly hope they do but there are clearly going to be a large numbers that don't immediately return due to adminstration/permanent store closures.....
We also have to remember that all of this is happening whilst furlough is in play, I really do fear for people's security once that's removed as it's already been brutal.
The position at the end of the year (not even in 2 months time, as furlough still running) will probably be the best indication.
I suspect we will see some positive signs over the next 2-3 months but it will be short lived as the reality of redundancies kick in. I am repeating myself, so will zip it
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 1st July 14:54
JQ said:
A post on our local FB page popped up this morning - it was a young lady looking for a job as it transpired she'd been made redundant. The post turned into a very open conversation between 3 ladies who live local to me but did not know each other. They'd each been made redundant this week and it came as a total shock to each of them. It appears they had assumed that as they'd not been furloughed their job security was rock solid. 2 had been at their firms for in excess of 15 years, one had just bought a new car (post lockdown) and another had just booked a summer holiday abroad.
As the conversation evolved it was clear it had not crossed any of their minds what might have been coming - the redundancies were a total shock. I suspect there's a lot of people out there with the same outlook who might be in for a shock shortly. The end of Furlough is going to be interesting.
I believe we're in a very strange bubble at the moment where the reality of the situation is totally lost on many.
I've had a couple of conversations like that, an alarming number of people are in cloud cuckoo land.As the conversation evolved it was clear it had not crossed any of their minds what might have been coming - the redundancies were a total shock. I suspect there's a lot of people out there with the same outlook who might be in for a shock shortly. The end of Furlough is going to be interesting.
I believe we're in a very strange bubble at the moment where the reality of the situation is totally lost on many.
Best one was a friend who told their employer they didn't want to come back from furlough just yet as they had got some temporary work and were quite enjoying getting 80% of their normal wage and the money for their temp work. They hadn't given any thought to the fact that they have probably just put a massive red mark through their name, and that's before you get onto the moral questions....
menousername said:
Thats the same thing though. 25bio in deposits. Sounds impressive- huge in fact. But when you divide it by households, as we should, its not very impressive at all. Divide it by #adults it goes down further.
Point of averaging it is to get a proper feel for the amount. Obviously some households will have put 2 or 3k aside. As a result, some households will not have put any aside.
Net debt coming down might be as a result of paying off, or just not taking it in first place. Money hitting those deposits might just be money that would previously have gone into servicing the debt / repayment holidays.
Its a good sign but one that will not continue (to the same extent) once we reopen and commuting and expenses return, and repayment holidays end. So its temporary. Only positive is that people might now be much more aware of the possibility of an unforeseen curve ball and the fact (as per 2020 names in trouble thread) there is only so much Govt intervention can control.
Dividing by households is just arbitrary though. UK Saving's ratios are c.5-6% of disposable on average and has increased to 9% for Q1 '20, that number will be significantly larger through Q2. £25bn in one month is a monumental number when you consider the long term average growth rate is somewhere in the region of £3-4bn. The pool of potential savers is also vastly below just using number of households as an abitrary denominator, not to mention very active savers tend to be in a very tight age range from mid-late 40s through to mid 60s. Point of averaging it is to get a proper feel for the amount. Obviously some households will have put 2 or 3k aside. As a result, some households will not have put any aside.
Net debt coming down might be as a result of paying off, or just not taking it in first place. Money hitting those deposits might just be money that would previously have gone into servicing the debt / repayment holidays.
Its a good sign but one that will not continue (to the same extent) once we reopen and commuting and expenses return, and repayment holidays end. So its temporary. Only positive is that people might now be much more aware of the possibility of an unforeseen curve ball and the fact (as per 2020 names in trouble thread) there is only so much Govt intervention can control.
And the net debt is absolutley households paying down debt, at the fastest rate on record. unsurprisingly.
Edited by whatleytom on Wednesday 1st July 15:02
Andy20vt said:
. . . . and BOOM, exactly as I mentioned a few weeks ago. Great news the the UK Government are doing the right thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
Thats all we need. 300k chinese. BJ has lost the plot. Hopefully the HK govt will stop them leaving with assets.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
V6Alfisti said:
Yep that's certainly different to what I am seeing in SE for large desirable homes, although they were doing ok in Jan/Feb of this year i.e selling.
However again the areas/streets all differ, so within the realms of possibility.
Yes, I'm talking about quite a small area that I monitor quite closely. The desirable homes aren't always that large, but are made more desirable by their relative rarity as they are surrounded by a sea of flats and smaller houses. However again the areas/streets all differ, so within the realms of possibility.
It's a strange market that doesn't seem to have had the wind taken out of it's sails by the current situation.
If I had been looking to buy a flat in the same area, I reckon I could definitely save 15% compared to last year. Some of them have an asking price that is 10% lower before any negotiation.
V6Alfisti said:
In terms of job returns - we certainly hope they do but there are clearly going to be a large numbers that don't immediately return due to adminstration/permanent store closures.....
We also have to remember that all of this is happening whilst furlough is in play, I really do fear for people's security once that's removed as it's already been brutal.
The position at the end of the year (not even in 2 months time, as furlough still running) will probably be the best indication.
I suspect we will see some positive signs over the next 2-3 months but it will be short lived as the reality of redundancies kick in.
This is what worries me more. There was an interesting discussion on another thread, where one poster was arguing that all of these job losses are purely down to covid and it's effects rather than covid bringing forward systemic change that was going to happen anyway.We also have to remember that all of this is happening whilst furlough is in play, I really do fear for people's security once that's removed as it's already been brutal.
The position at the end of the year (not even in 2 months time, as furlough still running) will probably be the best indication.
I suspect we will see some positive signs over the next 2-3 months but it will be short lived as the reality of redundancies kick in.
I just don't see that, particularly in sectors like retail. There were massive retail closures and job losses before all of this kicked off, my local high street had the highest vacancy rate in the 20+ years I've lived in the area. I just don't think that firms like TM Lewin are going to open stores again when covid subsides.
In other sectors, there will hopefully be more a bounce back, but I think several are going to be affected into the long term.
UpBeats said:
Andy20vt said:
. . . . and BOOM, exactly as I mentioned a few weeks ago. Great news the the UK Government are doing the right thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
Thats all we need. 300k chinese. BJ has lost the plot. Hopefully the HK govt will stop them leaving with assets.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899
I wonder though where all these people are going to live? Even high end London property will seem cheap for these guys where the average house price (mostly apartments) in Hong Kong hit $1.2 million last year.
Andy20vt said:
You've never been to Hong Kong then I take it? Great place and it's people are polite, well educated, commerce focused and would fit in well with the UK way of life.
Im sure they are but its not our job to take all these people. Why can they not stay in their homelands. This country has far too many immigrants already. Natives cannot afford decent housing as it is.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff