How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
PurpleMoonlight said:
You are mistaken, we are not remaining in the CU.
We most certainly are if we sign that deal.The WA has UK in the transition period as in the CU.
If an FTA is not agreed in time the backstop kicks in, which keeps us in the CU.
Any FTA will be based on the CU as its start point.
The EU will not agree to an FTA that allows the UK to leave the CU.
The UK can not terminate the WA.
The UK is permanently trapped in the CU.
It's all there in the text of the WA.
Have you even bothered to read the resignation letters of the ministers who resigned?
You don't resign from cabinet at such an important moment without good, solid reasons.
The important parts of the resignation letters
Raab
"
For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.
Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU Customs Union and Single Market obligations. No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement. That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the Future Economic Partnership. If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.
Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election. This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust."
McVey
"The proposals you put before Cabinet which will soon be judged by the entire country, means handing over around £39bn to the EU without anything in return. It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be. It will bind the hands of not only this, but future Governments in pursuing genuine free trade policies. We wouldn't be taking back control, we would be handing over control to the EU and even to a third country for arbitration.
It also threatens the integrity of the United Kingdom, which as a Unionist, is a risk I cannot be party to."
Vara (my MP)
"The result was decisive with the UK public voting the leave and that is what we, their elected representatives, must deliver.
The Agreement put forward however, does not do that as it leaves the UK in a half-way house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation.
Given the past performance of the EU there is every possibility that the UK-EU trade deal that we seek will take years to conclude. We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say. Worse, we will not be free to leave the Customs Arrangement unilaterally if we wish to do so. Northern Ireland in the meantime will be subject to a different relationship with the EU from the rest of the UK and whilst I agree there should be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom must be respected.
With respect Prime Minister, this Agreement does not provide for the United Kingdom being a sovereign, independent country leaving the shackles of the EU, however it is worded.
We are a proud nation and it is a sad day when we are reduced to obeying rules made by other countries who have shown that they do not have our best interests at heart. We can and must do better than this. The people of the UK deserve better. That is why I cannot support this Agreement."
Braverman
"
My reasons are simple. Firstly, the proposed Northern Ireland Backstop is not Brexit. It is not what the British people - or my constituents - voted for in 2016. It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU. This robs the UK of the main competitive advantages from Brexit. Without a unilateral right to terminate or a definite time limit to the Backstop, our numerous promises to leave the customs union will not be honoured. 17.4 million people voted for the UK to leave the EU in our own sovereign way and at a time of our choosing. The Backstop renders this impossible and generations of people will see this as betrayal.
Secondly, the Backstop proposals set out different regulatory regimes for Northern Ireland and Great Britain threatening to break up our precious Union. I am confident - having met with customs professionals in my role at the Department - that this could have been avoided.
Throughout this process, I have compromised. I have put pragmatism ahead of idealism and understand that concessions are necessary in a negotiation. I have kept faith in the ultimate destination to justify an uncomfortable journey. However I have reached a point where I feel that these concessions do not respect the will of the people - the people who put us here and whom we humbly serve. We must not let them down."
If May survives and brings this deal to the house, the mathematics prove its impossible to get through anyway, so to push this deal to the point of it being rejected achieves nothing but more wasted time.
There are only two possible paths now with regards getting any deal with the EU. One is to amend the WA to get enough MP's onboard, which is what the remaining Brexit ministers will try to do over the next few days. I don't see them achieving that, May is too stubborn. The other is plan for what rejection from the house would leave us with as options post the political fallout that would follow.
We then move on to the problem, that in pursuing this path, May has lost the support of the DUP. She has lost her working majority and can not govern. This means that if she does push this to a vote in the house and she loses, the government will most likely fall and we end up with no deal and no government.
There are only two ways out i see now.
May backs down
May is replaced
Mrr T said:
gooner1 said:
At the risk of(not) being wrong again, remind me who are the instigators of this proposal, not a deal, unless I'm very much mistaken(not) again are they not Remainers?
Where where team leave when the complex questions where being answered. Mostly resigned and moaning they wanted cake and unicorns. Or claiming no deal was an option. Some such as Grove and to my surprise Fox have stuck it out.Well, 'team Remain' have got control, and now they're complaining that the Brexiteers didn't stop them from doing something stupid.
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
jsf said:
The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU Customs Union and Single Market obligations.
It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be.
We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say.
It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU.
I've only quoted the bits you need to read before you post.It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be.
We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say.
It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU.
We are not remaining in the EU CU, a new UK:EU CU would be created.
Tuna said:
I remember someone on this thread smugly saying "Let the grown-ups take control".
Well, 'team Remain' have got control, and now they're complaining that the Brexiteers didn't stop them from doing something stupid.
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
Indeed. No plan would be better than this plan.Well, 'team Remain' have got control, and now they're complaining that the Brexiteers didn't stop them from doing something stupid.
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
Tuna said:
I remember someone on this thread smugly saying "Let the grown-ups take control".
Well, 'team Remain' have got control, and now they're complaining that the Brexiteers didn't stop them from doing something stupid.
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
Tuna, we're a bunch of people on an internet forum, the only influence we have is a vote each.Well, 'team Remain' have got control, and now they're complaining that the Brexiteers didn't stop them from doing something stupid.
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
Mine was to remain.
Yours was to leave.
The people behind the leave campaign scarpered when faced with the realisation that they'd won and would have to deliver on the things they'd offered.
Since then we've each had one vote at a General Election and I'm going to guess that you voted for Teresa May.
So, given the above, how the hell is the position we're in now my fault or that of anyone else who voted remain?
The one and only thing I expressly voted for was to avoid all of the inevitable bulls
t that anyone could see this would turn into.I literally don't get how anyone can say that any of this is anyone's responsibility other than those who voted for it. Twice.
It's beyond parody.
PurpleMoonlight said:
jsf said:
The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU Customs Union and Single Market obligations.
It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be.
We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say.
It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU.
I've only quoted the bits you need to read before you post.It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be.
We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say.
It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU.
We are not remaining in the EU CU, a new UK:EU CU would be created.
PurpleMoonlight said:
I've only quoted the bits you need to read before you post.
We are not remaining in the EU CU, a new UK:EU CU would be created.
Its semantics PM. You know the reality of the two terms means the same thing.We are not remaining in the EU CU, a new UK:EU CU would be created.
You are free to use the terms my MP used in his resignation letter if it suits you better. A Customs Arrangement.
That Customs Arrangement will not allow the UK to sign any meaningful FTA's that will have any positive impact on UK PLC, it will also retain the regularity drag on UK business with no say on any future changes to those regulations, which may prove to be disastrous for our type of economy, which is very different in its nature to the rest of the EU.
Worse, there is no legal way to end that relationship. So if we find in 20 years time we are on our knees, we would have to resort to breaking international law to remove ourselves from this agreement. That's not a sane situation to sign up to.
We are proposing to do this with an agreement that doesn't even cover the majority of UK export trade with the EU, services. And doesn't cover the vast majority of our economic activity, which is majority trade with the ROW and an enormous internal UK market. Our EU goods trade, which is what this deal is proposing to cover, is very small compared to our internal market and ROW trade combined.
We are proposing to sign a deal that provides all the benefits for the EU which we could achieve just by lowering our MFN tariff rates. Its ridiculous.
s2art said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: The people behind the leave campaign scarpered when faced with the realisation that they'd won and would have to deliver on the things they'd offered.
Who was that? Cameron wasnt for leave.Boris Johnson said:
Well, I must tell you, my friends, you who have waited faithfully for the punchline of this speech, that having consulted colleagues and in view of the circumstances in parliament, I have concluded that person cannot be me.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:s2art said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: The people behind the leave campaign scarpered when faced with the realisation that they'd won and would have to deliver on the things they'd offered.
Who was that? Cameron wasnt for leave.Boris Johnson said:
Well, I must tell you, my friends, you who have waited faithfully for the punchline of this speech, that having consulted colleagues and in view of the circumstances in parliament, I have concluded that person cannot be me.
Tuna said:
From day one, the attitude from a large swathe of Remain is to dismiss and deride anything put forward by Leave. To their credit, they've managed to dominate the proceedings. Suddenly abdicating themselves from any responsibility and claiming "but you didn't have any plans" is pathetic.
The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position. jsf said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
You are mistaken, we are not remaining in the CU.
We most certainly are if we sign that deal.The WA has UK in the transition period as in the CU.
If an FTA is not agreed in time the backstop kicks in, which keeps us in the CU.
Any FTA will be based on the CU as its start point.
The EU will not agree to an FTA that allows the UK to leave the CU.
The UK can not terminate the WA.
The UK is permanently trapped in the CU.
It's all there in the text of the WA.
Have you even bothered to read the resignation letters of the ministers who resigned?
You don't resign from cabinet at such an important moment without good, solid reasons.
The important parts of the resignation letters
Raab
"
For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.
Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU Customs Union and Single Market obligations. No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement. That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the Future Economic Partnership. If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.
Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election. This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust."
McVey
"The proposals you put before Cabinet which will soon be judged by the entire country, means handing over around £39bn to the EU without anything in return. It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British public we would not be. It will bind the hands of not only this, but future Governments in pursuing genuine free trade policies. We wouldn't be taking back control, we would be handing over control to the EU and even to a third country for arbitration.
It also threatens the integrity of the United Kingdom, which as a Unionist, is a risk I cannot be party to."
Vara (my MP)
"The result was decisive with the UK public voting the leave and that is what we, their elected representatives, must deliver.
The Agreement put forward however, does not do that as it leaves the UK in a half-way house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation.
Given the past performance of the EU there is every possibility that the UK-EU trade deal that we seek will take years to conclude. We will be locked in a Customs Arrangement indefinitely, bound by rules determined by the EU over which we have no say. Worse, we will not be free to leave the Customs Arrangement unilaterally if we wish to do so. Northern Ireland in the meantime will be subject to a different relationship with the EU from the rest of the UK and whilst I agree there should be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom must be respected.
With respect Prime Minister, this Agreement does not provide for the United Kingdom being a sovereign, independent country leaving the shackles of the EU, however it is worded.
We are a proud nation and it is a sad day when we are reduced to obeying rules made by other countries who have shown that they do not have our best interests at heart. We can and must do better than this. The people of the UK deserve better. That is why I cannot support this Agreement."
Braverman
"
My reasons are simple. Firstly, the proposed Northern Ireland Backstop is not Brexit. It is not what the British people - or my constituents - voted for in 2016. It prevents an unequivocal exit from a customs union with the EU. This robs the UK of the main competitive advantages from Brexit. Without a unilateral right to terminate or a definite time limit to the Backstop, our numerous promises to leave the customs union will not be honoured. 17.4 million people voted for the UK to leave the EU in our own sovereign way and at a time of our choosing. The Backstop renders this impossible and generations of people will see this as betrayal.
Secondly, the Backstop proposals set out different regulatory regimes for Northern Ireland and Great Britain threatening to break up our precious Union. I am confident - having met with customs professionals in my role at the Department - that this could have been avoided.
Throughout this process, I have compromised. I have put pragmatism ahead of idealism and understand that concessions are necessary in a negotiation. I have kept faith in the ultimate destination to justify an uncomfortable journey. However I have reached a point where I feel that these concessions do not respect the will of the people - the people who put us here and whom we humbly serve. We must not let them down."
If May survives and brings this deal to the house, the mathematics prove its impossible to get through anyway, so to push this deal to the point of it being rejected achieves nothing but more wasted time.
There are only two possible paths now with regards getting any deal with the EU. One is to amend the WA to get enough MP's onboard, which is what the remaining Brexit ministers will try to do over the next few days. I don't see them achieving that, May is too stubborn. The other is plan for what rejection from the house would leave us with as options post the political fallout that would follow.
We then move on to the problem, that in pursuing this path, May has lost the support of the DUP. She has lost her working majority and can not govern. This means that if she does push this to a vote in the house and she loses, the government will most likely fall and we end up with no deal and no government.
There are only two ways out i see now.
May backs down
May is replaced
In a small nutshell, the withdrawal agreement only satisfys political paranoia on both sides, as Brexit causes big fears on both sides. The proper negotiations haven't even started yet, so there is always going to be a leap of faith from both parties, which is why this recent template has been produced.
The hard work is still ahead, so to continue screwing around with withdrawal agreements that have taken an age to produce, isn't going to be very productive while the clock ticks to March 2019. We have a template to start us off, so let's just bloody well start it, rather than continue to dwell in political paranoia for what feels like an eternity.
Mrr T said:
The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position.
That method involves FoM and EU subs, and you are assuming the other EFTA members would have allowed us to join.Russian Troll Bot said:
Verhofstadt losing his temper about member states not wanting to transfer their sovereignty and powers
https://twitter.com/P_G_Thompson/status/1063793805...
But I didn't think that was what the EU was about...............?
That one video confirms the referendum result was the correct one and any transition pains of getting out are a price worth paying.https://twitter.com/P_G_Thompson/status/1063793805...
But I didn't think that was what the EU was about...............?
soupdragon1 said:
... NI/DUP Position...
Excellent post. Not just the NI points, but also the general interpretation of the calculations and understanding of the politics at play by TM.Borris shot his bolt 6 months ago and, still without a plan, sits there silently pissing in the wind whilst being spectacularly outmanoeuvred by Gove.
JRM has metaphorically stood on the steps, piece of paper in hand. All alone.
DUP do their thing and as you say, once the bluster has died down and the reality of their situation sinks in, they'll be voting for the deal.
Then you're left with a divided Labour who are generally remain along with the bulk of their new Membership. Once the reality that a 'People's Vote' ain't ever going to happen, they'll be in Parliament voting for the deal or no deal at all, with 'Best interests of the country' ringing in their ears.
Gove et al may achieve a key concession re the Backstop, they may not. Either way the/a deal is put before parliament, gets through with 400+ votes. The world moves on and Brexit is consigned to f&c paper.
TM steps down having done her job and Gove (heaven help us) is crowned.
Or something like that
Mrr T said:
The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position.
DD started with a Canada+ plan. Had he, or a successor, been allowed to continue we would have been in a better position. It was a remainer who overruled it. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff