How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)

[PurpleMoonlight]

soupdragon1 said:

I totally understand why people are saying what they are saying, but it keeps escaping everyone that it's only a withdrawal agreement that has many miles still to run. It's all ifs buts and maybes right now but people keep trotting out doomsday outcomes as if that's what actually true as of this moment in time. All we have is a template from which to move forward from, and signing the agreement is absolutely not signing up to a vassal state - it's signing up to pre-conditions of protection so that if agreements aren't made, we have a backstop protection in place. Now, if we sign the agreement, and then put the pen down and do nothing more, then yes, we have a problem...but that's not the plan.

In a small nutshell, the withdrawal agreement only satisfys political paranoia on both sides, as Brexit causes big fears on both sides. The proper negotiations haven't even started yet, so there is always going to be a leap of faith from both parties, which is why this recent template has been produced.

The hard work is still ahead, so to continue screwing around with withdrawal agreements that have taken an age to produce, isn't going to be very productive while the clock ticks to March 2019. We have a template to start us off, so let's just bloody well start it, rather than continue to dwell in political paranoia for what feels like an eternity.

I think the danger is that people perceive that the eventual trade agreement will be very similar to the backstop, and not a million miles away from Chequers.

[anonymous-user]

soupdragon1 said:

I totally understand why people are saying what they are saying, but it keeps escaping everyone that it's only a withdrawal agreement that has many miles still to run. It's all ifs buts and maybes right now but people keep trotting out doomsday outcomes as if that's what actually true as of this moment in time. All we have is a template from which to move forward from, and signing the agreement is absolutely not signing up to a vassal state - it's signing up to pre-conditions of protection so that if agreements aren't made, we have a backstop protection in place. Now, if we sign the agreement, and then put the pen down and do nothing more, then yes, we have a problem...but that's not the plan.

In a small nutshell, the withdrawal agreement only satisfys political paranoia on both sides, as Brexit causes big fears on both sides. The proper negotiations haven't even started yet, so there is always going to be a leap of faith from both parties, which is why this recent template has been produced.

The hard work is still ahead, so to continue screwing around with withdrawal agreements that have taken an age to produce, isn't going to be very productive while the clock ticks to March 2019. We have a template to start us off, so let's just bloody well start it, rather than continue to dwell in political paranoia for what feels like an eternity.

Remove the backstop and you may have a point.

The simple truth is there is no trust in the EU not dragging its feet, so we by default end up stuck in the terms of the WA.

The terms themselves are st, but at least if there was a way out, we could sign that with more confidence. When there is no unilateral way out, there is no trust and it will lead to massive political problems that could end with the UK breaking a treaty, or worse, the rise of an extreme leader needed to bring about that tearing up of the agreement.

Its a risk to far.

[s2art]

bhstewie said:

s2art said:

He was holed beneath the waterline. That not scarpering, its just accepting the inevitable.

It's always someone else's fault isn't it. Bit of a recurring theme there.

Boris was buggered. He could do nothing about that barring going back in time and undoing all the mistakes he made. He really didnt want to 'scarper', he got booted.

[SeeFive]

s2art said:

Mrr T said:

The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position.

DD started with a Canada+ plan. Had he, or a successor, been allowed to continue we would have been in a better position. It was a remainer who overruled it.

It would be really interesting to see the chronology of proposals, rebuttals and counter proposals that has led us to the current deal. I for one cannot understand how we have essentially locked ourselves into a CU with no end date and no exit strategy on our terms.

Essentially that is a far worse position. At least we could trigger An exit under the full EU terms, it appears that we cannot on TM’s current position. Unacceptable.

[bitchstewie]

s2art said:

bhstewie said:

s2art said:

He was holed beneath the waterline. That not scarpering, its just accepting the inevitable.

It's always someone else's fault isn't it. Bit of a recurring theme there.

Boris was buggered. He could do nothing about that barring going back in time and undoing all the mistakes he made. He really didnt want to 'scarper', he got booted.

He could have stood and at least said "I would have liked to have delivered you the Brexit you voted for but the party have voted against me".

He didn't even try.

He legged it.

[Mrr T]

s2art said:

Mrr T said:

The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position.

DD started with a Canada+ plan. Had he, or a successor, been allowed to continue we would have been in a better position. It was a remainer who overruled it.

DD's plan was published on conservative home after he resigned. Guess what the + was cross recognition between the EU/UK of all standards. Even though the EU had made clear from day one this was not an option. What a character he is a full year working on a plan which breaks one of the EU red lines.

[Troubleatmill]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Troubleatmill said:

If the UK representatives on the joint committee decide "The UK should leave within 6 months"
Can the EU representatives on the joint committee decide - "The UK cannot leave?"

I don't know the specific timscales for seeking to leave the backstop new UK:EU CU I'm afraid.

My point was we are not remaining in the EU CU.

You missed answering my point.

Let me try again
Is it possible for EU representatives on the joint committee to decide - "The UK cannot leave?"

It is a simple YES or NO.
They either can or cannot.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

DD's plan was published on conservative home after he resigned. Guess what the + was cross recognition between the EU/UK of all standards. Even though the EU had made clear from day one this was not an option. What a character he is a full year working on a plan which breaks one of the EU red lines.

This WA breaks most of Mays red lines set in her lancaster house speech and in the manifiesto.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Troubleatmill said:

You missed answering my point.

Let me try again
Is it possible for EU representatives on the joint committee to decide - "The UK cannot leave?"

It is a simple YES or NO.
They either can or cannot.

Of course they can decide that, but that doesn't mean we won't be able to leave as there are independent members too.

[s2art]

Mrr T said:

s2art said:

Mrr T said:

The leave plans which demanded cake and unicorns where never workable plans so they where dismissed. If leave had adopted the EFTA/EEA plan then we would now be in a better position.

DD started with a Canada+ plan. Had he, or a successor, been allowed to continue we would have been in a better position. It was a remainer who overruled it.

DD's plan was published on conservative home after he resigned. Guess what the + was cross recognition between the EU/UK of all standards. Even though the EU had made clear from day one this was not an option. What a character he is a full year working on a plan which breaks one of the EU red lines.

At that point all was up for negotiation. Cross recognition is nothing special to talk about, CETA has some in it, so its just a question of how much: to be negotiated. Start will all and work from there, what is so strange?

[Tuna]

bhstewie said:

Tuna, we're a bunch of people on an internet forum, the only influence we have is a vote each.

Mine was to remain.

Yours was to leave.

Well you're off to a bad start. I didn't vote to leave.

I did recognise that given the result of the Referendum, we couldn't mess around hoping it would all sort itself out or we'd magically undo it.

bhstewie said:

The people behind the leave campaign scarpered when faced with the realisation that they'd won and would have to deliver on the things they'd offered.

Proving my point exactly - dismissing what happened (as a point of history) and claiming that the leavers all ran away. They didn't, did they? Bo-Jo and Gove both stood in the preliminary rounds of the leadership race, before internecine fighting took them both out.

Then Davis started the negotiations and got '85% there' with a Canada++ deal, before May unveiled Chequers.

All a matter of record. No one scarpered - apart from Cameron. The attempted to deliver what they'd offered. You can blame their failure on incompetence, in-fighting or sabotage, but no, they did not 'run away'.

bhstewie said:

Since then we've each had one vote at a General Election and I'm going to guess that you voted for Teresa May.

Pedantically, no. I voted for the Conservatives as a least worst option. I don't like May - since seeing her record as home secretary she's always been in my 'least favourite flavour of conservatism' box.

bhstewie said:

So, given the above, how the hell is the position we're in now my fault or that of anyone else who voted remain?

The one and only thing I expressly voted for was to avoid all of the inevitable bullst that anyone could see this would turn into.

I literally don't get how anyone can say that any of this is anyone's responsibility other than those who voted for it. Twice.

It's beyond parody.

So you're saying that not one Remain voter exists in government, in the civil service, in HMRC or the Treasury - all of whom contributed to the current deal?

No, I'm not holding you personally responsible. I will point out though when you bullst and bluster and claim that Remain have been blameless in this whole fiasco.

[Mrr T]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

DD's plan was published on conservative home after he resigned. Guess what the + was cross recognition between the EU/UK of all standards. Even though the EU had made clear from day one this was not an option. What a character he is a full year working on a plan which breaks one of the EU red lines.

This WA breaks most of Mays red lines set in her lancaster house speech and in the manifiesto.

TM promised you things, anyone who understood brexit, knew she could not deliver. You should not have believed her. Mind you, many leavers believed DD, Foxy, BJ, JRM, the great nigel, so they do have a history of believing politicians who lie to them.

Edited by Mrr T on Saturday 17th November 16:17

[powerstroke]

Russian Troll Bot said:

Verhofstadt losing his temper about member states not wanting to transfer their sovereignty and powers

https://twitter.com/P_G_Thompson/status/1063793805...


But I didn't think that was what the EU was about...............?

Oh it will be fine I wonder why these s want their own army ??/
How long will this reich last , will they Invade Poland they seem to be getting some of the rules wrong , anwers on a post card to Nick Clegg or any other lying EU patsy ,quisling or sycophant please ...

[crankedup]

steve_k said:

Russian Troll Bot said:

Verhofstadt losing his temper about member states not wanting to transfer their sovereignty and powers

https://twitter.com/P_G_Thompson/status/1063793805...


But I didn't think that was what the EU was about...............?

That one video confirms the referendum result was the correct one and any transition pains of getting out are a price worth paying.

Absolutely, seeing that clip of just a few seconds sums up everything that is wrong with the political experiment. Thankfully we are to be well out of it.

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Of course they can decide that, but that doesn't mean we won't be able to leave as there are independent members too.

Sorry PM, you keep saying this, but its wrong.

There is no arbitration process with a third party to end the agreement. If one party, UK or EU, refuses to end the agreement, it doesn't end.

[Troubleatmill]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Troubleatmill said:

You missed answering my point.

Let me try again
Is it possible for EU representatives on the joint committee to decide - "The UK cannot leave?"

It is a simple YES or NO.
They either can or cannot.

Of course they can decide that, but that doesn't mean we won't be able to leave as there are independent members too.

So - we would be giving EU representatives & other third parties the power to prevent us from ever leaving should they wish to use it.

Genius!

[powerstroke]

crankedup said:

Absolutely, seeing that clip of just a few seconds sums up everything that is wrong with the political experiment. Thankfully we are to be well out of it.

Don't count your chickens !!! Oily has his hand up May and she is doing what the EU say ...

[bitchstewie]

Tuna, I assumed you'd voted leave, I apologise

I don't doubt there's a civil service bias towards either the status quo, or remaining, depending how you view it.

That was surely predictable however?

Blaming Teresa May and the civil service, well yes, that's fair as one of them is who was elected, but the other surely follows their lead?

My point was simply that on here there are pages and pages where it's made to sound as if individual remain voters somehow caused this current clusterfk when the one thing we did when we voted was to try to avoid it by voting how we did and since then we've done nothing (except bicker on a car forum).

Every time I say it I sound about 5 but to me it's just simple fact that those who voted leave, however much they feel betrayed (and to a point I get that and agree with why they feel it) did cause this.

I think where we can both agree is that this deal as it stands stinks. Voting to leave an "unelected dictatorship" and the deal is to hand it more power whilst having less say - you really couldn't make that up.

[SeeFive]

Troubleatmill said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Troubleatmill said:

You missed answering my point.

Let me try again
Is it possible for EU representatives on the joint committee to decide - "The UK cannot leave?"

It is a simple YES or NO.
They either can or cannot.

Of course they can decide that, but that doesn't mean we won't be able to leave as there are independent members too.

So - we would be giving EU representatives & other third parties the power to prevent us from ever leaving should they wish to use it.

Genius!

Yup. Give away A50. Absolute genius agreement. How bloody hard has it been to negotiate with them under A50? Can you imagine how hard it would be without it?

[s2art]

[quote=bhstewie

Every time I say it I sound about 5 but to me it's just simple fact that those who voted leave, however much they feel betrayed (and to a point I get that and agree with why they feel it) did cause this.

.
[/quote]
Thats a bit like blaming the people who voted for Blair for causing the UK to get into the Iraq war.