CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 2)

[EddieSteadyGo]

Not-The-Messiah said:

The first thing I thought after his brush with death was he's now going to be useless and the worse person for the job. A few days later he had a new kid he then became even worse.

Honestly, I think he is also probably still feeling pretty unwell.

[Ridgemont]

Elysium said:

This is the big one:

18th March - London only lockdown discussed:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

20th March - concern that ICU capacity would be breached by the end of the month. R thought to be running at 2 or 3

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

1st April - realisation that R was already below 1 and that it had begun to reduce Mid March. This document is also heavily redacted:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

So they locked down because they thought the infection was out of control in London, then realised by 1st April that it was well under control and that pre-lockdown measures had been working.

Johnson was in hospital from the 6th to the 13th April. The first lockdown review was 16th April. At that point the Govt knew that the restrictions were no longer necessary to protect the NHS, but they had no plan to exit lockdown and no political will to act whilst Johnson was in hospital.

So they evaded and extended lockdown by 3 weeks.

Elysium: have a lot of time for your posts but look at the timelines. We are talking about the space of a week or two or days between the reports. They are situational.
Where we are now, with developing understanding of the situations here, Sweden, Italy and say New Zealand is probably going to exhaust journals for years to come. In retrospect. Trying to manage government policy on the fly with ultra responsive policy calls is... well expecting government to work at the speed of something other than government works at.

The SAGE view is heavily caveated with caution so expecting a ‘aha!’ Partridge moment from the gov, desperately trying to wed themselves to guidance, is unlikely. It hardly makes them the bds you are portraying.

[Fubar1977]

sim72 said:

Fubar1977 said:

You put it better than I did OldGermanHeaps. My original post may have come across a bit on the harsh side to be honest but all the noise is coming from the LockDown advocates and the Angry Karens whilst those of us who are, frankly, terrified for our future are drowned out or cast as "Plague Spreaders" who want everyone to die apparently.

You can't blame Angry Karen really. Angry Karen has been shut in her house for seven weeks but is still watching a 5pm briefing every day saying that hundreds of people are still dying. Angry Karen therefore computes that anyone who is outside must be spreading the virus, because otherwise we'd have sorted this by now. The nuances of the issue are beyond Angry Karen, but let's face it, everyone who Angry Karen knows agrees with her, so she must be right (see also: Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible threat to the country).

You`re right, of course. It's just... depressing how so many just accept what the media/government say without applying any critical thinking to it at all.

I get that it would be politically very hard to go against the flow when most of the world is going into lockdown but I honestly thought we had the right approach initially and was totally dismayed when we U-turned and locked down with the rest of them.

My feeling is that when this is all looked back on and analysed in years to come the title of this thread will be the conclusion drawn.

[easyhome]

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/britons-lea...

From what I’ve seen on SM I think there’s a lot of people out there who are so scared they’re going to stay in even if the furlough money is dropped, they’ve well and truly drunk the kool aid.

[Fubar1977]

easyhome said:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/britons-lea...

From what I’ve seen on SM I think there’s a lot of people out there who are so scared they’re going to stay in even if the furlough money is dropped, they’ve well and truly drunk the kool aid.

I mostly try and avoid SM. FB especially but the number of people I see in the line for the Supermarket wearing "Full Hazmat" backs that up.
So, how many missed rent/mortgage payments before reality sinks in for them?

[easyhome]

Fubar1977 said:

easyhome said:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/britons-lea...

From what I’ve seen on SM I think there’s a lot of people out there who are so scared they’re going to stay in even if the furlough money is dropped, they’ve well and truly drunk the kool aid.

I mostly try and avoid SM. FB especially but the number of people I see in the line for the Supermarket wearing "Full Hazmat" backs that up.
So, how many missed rent/mortgage payments before reality sinks in for them?

They’ve convinced themselves the virus will kill them and their granny/kids/dog as soon as they leave the house.

Personally, if this was say, Ebola, I’d be looking at it like that, and thinking, sod the mortgage, I’m staying in until the bailiffs turn up.

Lots of people out there think this is like that.

[johnboy1975]

Elysium said:

This is the big one:

18th March - London only lockdown discussed:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

20th March - concern that ICU capacity would be breached by the end of the month. R thought to be running at 2 or 3

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

1st April - realisation that R was already below 1 and that it had begun to reduce Mid March. This document is also heavily redacted:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

So they locked down because they thought the infection was out of control in London, then realised by 1st April that it was well under control and that pre-lockdown measures had been working.

Johnson was in hospital from the 6th to the 13th April. The first lockdown review was 16th April. At that point the Govt knew that the restrictions were no longer necessary to protect the NHS, but they had no plan to exit lockdown and no political will to act whilst Johnson was in hospital.

So they evaded and extended lockdown by 3 weeks.

Another big fan of your work.

Does this mean social distancing can keep R <1 on it's own, and therefore the lockdown is pointless, as you have advocated (and I have suspected)

Furlough should only had been mass gathering type jobs (pubs gyms travel hotel) IMO although has been stated before, possibly calling the lockdown would have been irresistible? Although to counter that last point, surely there was enough data available at the point of lockdown to identify and isolate the "at risk" and explain to the rest of us that we are not particularly at risk (c0.1%)

I'm not sure (even on my own opinion, let alone the nations) whether this will eventually bring down the government (too late to lockdown, ineffective, lack of prevention in care homes) or whether "mistakes were made" but anyone else would have done the same thing. Cant see Labour clamouring for an end to lockdown...... I think in the end it may not matter, just being in charge will be enough for many

[Not-The-Messiah]

johnboy1975 said:

Another big fan of your work.

Does this mean social distancing can keep R <1 on it's own, and therefore the lockdown is pointless, as you have advocated (and I have suspected)

Furlough should only had been mass gathering type jobs (pubs gyms travel hotel) IMO although has been stated before, possibly calling the lockdown would have been irresistible? Although to counter that last point, surely there was enough data available at the point of lockdown to identify and isolate the "at risk" and explain to the rest of us that we are not particularly at risk (c0.1%)

I'm not sure (even on my own opinion, let alone the nations) whether this will eventually bring down the government (too late to lockdown, ineffective, lack of prevention in care homes) or whether "mistakes were made" but anyone else would have done the same thing. Cant see Labour clamouring for an end to lockdown...... I think in the end it may not matter, just being in charge will be enough for many

The numbers seem to show that the R0 was below 1 before the lockdowns. The public naturally adjusted their behaviour the pubs where still open but only a few where still going. People where naturally social distancing if it had started to get worse with the hospitals getting over run people would have adjusted again with less people going out.

[Dr Z]

isaldiri said:

Elysium said:

Still reading through the additional SAGE docs. This is a shocker:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

SPI-M said:

It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.

16th March was the date the 500k death imperial model was published. That day a SAGE subgroup was debating a full year of restrictions, with strict social distancing for 6 months.

Then one week later Johnson announced a 3 week lockdown.

Sheer lies. No one would have accepted what was being proposed, so the Govt kept it secret from us.

I'm not entirely sure I get the outrage. What exactly is the lie and the shocker about that? SPI-M were asked to model something. They did. I don't see what the big deal is.

Yeah, me neither. Elysium is wrong, of course--lockdown scenarios were modelled and communicated prior to 16th March. It was one of the tools available to the govt alongside the strict social distancing & shielding. It is wrong to assume that we went into lockdown blind. There was more uncertainty about the R(t) being <1 prior to lockdown, i.e. there was more variation in the different modelling groups' estimations, so SAGE was more conservative in its advice.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Elysium said:

That’s enough.

Lockdown ends for me tomorrow.

Don't blame you.

I went back to normal work hours from last week. Partly boredom, partly the stress of trying to cram four days work into two days, partly because the claimed aim of the lockdown had clearly been achieved.

My three admin staff all feel the same and are desperate to get back to normal hours, but they all have children off school so it is difficult for them. I have actually taken on an additional part time employee to try to keep on top of things.

And finally, it pisses me off immensely that my business has received not a single penny of financial assistance from the Government, yet it wants me to not use the office and not use my car. Well they can fk off!

[4154QLD]

So here in sunny Queensland we have been in lockdown for 5/6 weeks. As of today, the numbers are below

Tests Taken - 117,721
Total # of cases - 1043
Of those - 973 contracted overseas or or had close contact with a confirmed case, such as their partner or flatmate.
Deaths - 6
Mortality rate - 0.575% of confirmed cases..

Current Cases - 57 (population of QLD ~5.7M)
Currently Hospitalised - 9

Given that 65% of the QLD population live in the South East Corner (Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast approx 3.7M) the numbers are extremely low here (50 active cases in total) but we still have social distancing in place, all non-essential shops are closed, Uni's have closed campuses, 90% of those that can are working from home, schools are closed (for now), beaches are closed, parks are closed, can't go more than 50km (30 miles) from your home..

But, the govt. both state and federal have been pretty good with the communications so far and it's very easy to find out exactly what the numbers etc. are to date. Most states here are reporting 1/2 new cases per day, so 15-ish per day nationally in total.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel...

[JagLover]

Jimboka said:

andy_s said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/05/lo...

Glimmers...

Ffs, anyone with half a brain could have worked that out 6 weeks ago.
The Scientists appear to be clueless TBH

Or just working with the constraints of a very basic model (which also has many wrong parameters). They cannot model voluntary changes in behaviour or partial lockdowns so say it cannot be done.

Meanwhile the Swedish authorities think the models are b*llox and just put in simple common sense measures and see how things work out.

The heart of all this in my view is the fallacy that complex systems can be modelled effectively enough to base your policy response solely on the model. .

[MikeT66]

sim72 said:

You can't blame Angry Karen really. Angry Karen has been shut in her house for seven weeks but is still watching a 5pm briefing every day saying that hundreds of people are still dying. Angry Karen therefore computes that anyone who is outside must be spreading the virus, because otherwise we'd have sorted this by now. The nuances of the issue are beyond Angry Karen, but let's face it, everyone who Angry Karen knows agrees with her, so she must be right (see also: Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible threat to the country).

Bloody hell, yes - this. And it seems I've got a friends in that category. I wrote on one of the threads (there's that many Covid ones!) that I'm being furloughed this week, so Mrs.T66 has found some temp/part-time work to try and bring in some extra money. Reaction from some of our 'Angry Karens' is along the lines of "I thought you were more sensible than that", "You're risking ALL OF US for some extra money?" "Do you not understand the guidelines....?" "We're supposed to be in this together - don't break the trust". It's a bigger 'losing-friends' scenario than Brexit!

[anonymous-user]

andy_s said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/05/lo...

Glimmers...

Indeed

Disappointing to see the claim that a faction of Tory MPs are opposed to the idea on the basis of what seem wholly vote saving grounds

[dmahon]

The message is finally hitting the MSM:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8290353...

[Tlandcruiser]

It’s disappointing that there are MPs accusing people of liking the 80% and being work shy. The people furloughed did not have a choice to be furloughed and they don’t have a choice in the matter to remain furloughed. But it’s working on turning the public on each other instead I guess, as evident even in this thread.

[eltawater]

dmahon said:

The message is finally hitting the MSM:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8290353...

The ONS data itself (for those allergic to The Mail) is very interesting. It adds fuel to the fire of questioning why we're keeping the vast majority of people under the age of 50 in a lockdown.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

Deaths by age group, England and Wales, week ending 24 April 2020

Week number		Under 1 year	01-14	15-44	45-64	65-74	75-84	85+
17	COVID-19	0	0	103	823	1189	2615	3507
17	All deaths	54	12	404	2283	3238	6513	9493
17	Populations	669797	10004735	22447913	15162118	5906928	3476922	1447396

Edited by eltawater on Wednesday 6th May 07:27

[HorneyMX5]

Tlandcruiser said:

It’s disappointing that there are MPs accusing people of liking the 80% and being work shy. The people furloughed did not have a choice to be furloughed and they don’t have a choice in the matter to remain furloughed. But it’s working on turning the public on each other instead I guess, as evident even in this thread.

Exactly. The decision on whether we go back to work rests with our employer. Our only choices are wait for either return or redundancy, or to quit and find a new job.

[Rick1.8t]

dmahon said:

The message is finally hitting the MSM:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8290353...

I know the comments section is often full of lunatics but just look at them - many saying the article is callous, saying even one death is too many, etc etc - tides are turning though, it used to be the vast majority with this view and there are quite a number of people in opposition now at least.

I do maintain it’s still going to take some effort from govt and media to convince a huge number of the population to contemplate work / school again, let alone other aspects of life less essential.

Financial support being lifted the only way maybe?

Edited by Rick1.8t on Wednesday 6th May 07:38

[anonymous-user]

Rick1.8t said:

dmahon said:

The message is finally hitting the MSM:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8290353...

I know the comments section is often full of lunatics but just look at them - many saying the article is callous, saying even one death is too many, etc etc - tides are turning though, it used to be the vast majority with this view and there are quite a number of people in opposition now at least.

I do maintain it’s still going to take some effort from govt and media to convince a huge number of the population to contemplate work / school again, let alone other aspects of life less essential.

Financial support being lifted the only way maybe?

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 6th May 07:38

Can you tell us where you get your information from? I don’t know a single person who doesn’t want to get back to work and get their kids back to school as soon as they can.