CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 16)
Discussion
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Which is funny when you think, despite of all the stories about breakthrough infections from new variants like delta, the boosters we are giving now have exactly the same formulation as they did originally.
I have no idea if B.1.1529 will turn out to be different, but I don't think we need to push the panic button just yet.
I wonder what fantastical R0 the modellers/epidemiologists will come up for this one. 15? or will we get past the higher end of the range estimated for measles at 20+?I have no idea if B.1.1529 will turn out to be different, but I don't think we need to push the panic button just yet.
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
g3org3y said:
BBC said:
Citing Javid's earlier comment about the potential for the new variant to be more transmissible than others, Conservative MP Liam Fox asks what is known about the severity of illness caused by the new variant - and the potential for its impact on the health service.
Javid replies that "we don't know enough yet" about the severity of illness that could be caused by the new variant.
He points to a "desktop analysis" based on the number of mutations associated with this variant - double those present in the Delta strain - which he says indicates a "possibility" that the new variant might have a "different impact" on people if they are infected.
Seems legit.Javid replies that "we don't know enough yet" about the severity of illness that could be caused by the new variant.
He points to a "desktop analysis" based on the number of mutations associated with this variant - double those present in the Delta strain - which he says indicates a "possibility" that the new variant might have a "different impact" on people if they are infected.
Something along the lines of “our model shows that since it has 30 times more mutations within it, then it must be 300 times more dangerous - well it was based on the first number I thought of so I put that into the model and I have never been wrong before”
Rufus Stone said:
10 deaths under age 19 is a lie.
Not for under 19's with no comorbidities. Last time I saw ONS data it was 8 listed, although it was a while ago so may have gone up now...12...14...15..., either way, it's not a lot is it.... Even including all comorbidities, it's not much. I'm more concerned of the something like 58% increase in Myocarditis in children. But you and others brushed this off. Certainly aren't 58% more children dying "due to" Coronavirus is there.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
See here. Note the huge variance of "involving" or "due to", this is all population by the way no separate for comorbidities v healthy. I can't find the same graph but updated. I'm sure someone will come along with it soon.. I'm going back to wrapping Christmas presents.
Boringvolvodriver said:
jameswills said:
Boringvolvodriver said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Not read that the WHO are likely to call the new variant Nu as in the 13the letter of the Greek alphabet then?And do you not think that MrRNA may be a result of auto spell at all?
Finally, your comment confirms that full approval has not been given yet and that maybe we will be jabbing people for ever more?
He insisted the Covid were jabs were delivered intravenously and disappeared for a while when the scale of his misunderstanding was pointed out to him.
Highly amusing but reaffirms the obvious point that anything he says should be read with a full bucket of salt.
EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
Can’t read it all as not on Twitter but first questions are I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
How many cases have there been so far?
How many of those have had serious illness and ended up in hospital or died?
Without that information, then Shirley they are just “modeling” again aren’t they?
CarCrazyDad said:
Not for under 19's with no comorbidities. Last time I saw ONS data it was 8 listed, although it was a while ago so may have gone up now...12...14...15..., either way, it's not a lot is it....
Even including all comorbidities, it's not much. I'm more concerned of the something like 58% increase in Myocarditis in children. But you and others brushed this off. Certainly aren't 58% more children dying "due to" Coronavirus is there.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
See here. Note the huge variance of "involving" or "due to", this is all population by the way no separate for comorbidities v healthy. I can't find the same graph but updated. I'm sure someone will come along with it soon.. I'm going back to wrapping Christmas presents.
Out of interest what are the raw number used to determine 58%? Whilst 58% can sound like a big scary number the number of incidences could still be in single figures...Even including all comorbidities, it's not much. I'm more concerned of the something like 58% increase in Myocarditis in children. But you and others brushed this off. Certainly aren't 58% more children dying "due to" Coronavirus is there.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
See here. Note the huge variance of "involving" or "due to", this is all population by the way no separate for comorbidities v healthy. I can't find the same graph but updated. I'm sure someone will come along with it soon.. I'm going back to wrapping Christmas presents.
Boringvolvodriver said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
Can’t read it all as not on Twitter but first questions are I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
How many cases have there been so far?
How many of those have had serious illness and ended up in hospital or died?
Without that information, then Shirley they are just “modeling” again aren’t they?
At the moment, they are only talking about the transmissibility - I don't think there is any data yet on the virulence.
Covid-19: Hospitals at capacity with mainly unvaccinated patients
article said:
Doctors have warned hospital wards are being "brought to their knees" largely by unvaccinated Covid-19 patients.
Gloucestershire Royal Hospital said its Intensive Therapy Unit (ITU) had reached capacity.
It said the number of patients with Covid in the hospital was lower than at this time last year, but it had more patients in its intensive therapy unit.
Intensive care doctors have urged people to have the Covid-19 vaccination "because it does make a difference".
Intensive care consultant Dave Windsor, said: "Please, please, get your vaccine, because it does make a difference.
"At the moment, we have a six-bedded area in our intensive care for those needing critical care, but we also have a respiratory high care area too and plenty of ward space.
"But obviously, that facility is needed for Covid patients and isn't available for other patients, which is why we are seeing such huge demand this time."
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Trust anaesthetic registrar Graham Walkden said: "The hospitals have been brought to their knees.
"We're seeing younger people, unvaccinated, who take up around 75 percent of the intensive care beds and that's not just here, that's nationally.
"But 25 percent of those who come in have done the right thing and got vaccinated, but because of other things, have struggled to cope with a nasty Covid pneumonia."
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Trust anaesthetic trainee Cima Dailami, said the hospital's intensive care wards were working "flat-out".
"The Covid patients we've got on ITU are largely unvaccinated. So that's the real clincher," she said.
"That can be quite demoralising for us to see, because we really are working at maximum. We're needing to do everything we can, that's tough.
"I'm sure you must've seen all of the ambulances waiting outside.
"Our hospital is pretty full so when you have patients coming in there is no where else for them to go."
She said the ITU ward she had been working on was also busy with non-Covid patients.
Gloucestershire Royal Hospital said its Intensive Therapy Unit (ITU) had reached capacity.
It said the number of patients with Covid in the hospital was lower than at this time last year, but it had more patients in its intensive therapy unit.
Intensive care doctors have urged people to have the Covid-19 vaccination "because it does make a difference".
Intensive care consultant Dave Windsor, said: "Please, please, get your vaccine, because it does make a difference.
"At the moment, we have a six-bedded area in our intensive care for those needing critical care, but we also have a respiratory high care area too and plenty of ward space.
"But obviously, that facility is needed for Covid patients and isn't available for other patients, which is why we are seeing such huge demand this time."
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Trust anaesthetic registrar Graham Walkden said: "The hospitals have been brought to their knees.
"We're seeing younger people, unvaccinated, who take up around 75 percent of the intensive care beds and that's not just here, that's nationally.
"But 25 percent of those who come in have done the right thing and got vaccinated, but because of other things, have struggled to cope with a nasty Covid pneumonia."
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Trust anaesthetic trainee Cima Dailami, said the hospital's intensive care wards were working "flat-out".
"The Covid patients we've got on ITU are largely unvaccinated. So that's the real clincher," she said.
"That can be quite demoralising for us to see, because we really are working at maximum. We're needing to do everything we can, that's tough.
"I'm sure you must've seen all of the ambulances waiting outside.
"Our hospital is pretty full so when you have patients coming in there is no where else for them to go."
She said the ITU ward she had been working on was also busy with non-Covid patients.
“Of 3,105 deaths from all causes among the 12 million or so people under 18 in England between March 2020 and February 2021, 25 were attributable to COVID-19 — a rate of about 2 for every million people in this age range. None had asthma or type-1 diabetes, the authors note, and about half had conditions that put them at a higher risk than healthy children of dying from any cause.”
So about 12
So about 12
Boringvolvodriver said:
Can’t read it all as not on Twitter but first questions are
How many cases have there been so far?
How many of those have had serious illness and ended up in hospital or died?
Without that information, then Shirley they are just “modeling” again aren’t they?
Scary graph from the FT. At the bottom, in small print, it says growth of B1.1.529 is "modelled". How many cases have there been so far?
How many of those have had serious illness and ended up in hospital or died?
Without that information, then Shirley they are just “modeling” again aren’t they?
Allegedly there's only 10 confirmed cases by genomic sequencing and 100 or so "suspected". Seems a bit quick off the mark for all these headlines and fear.
77th Brigade said:
Could we not just call 'Nu' by the name 'Marburg' instead?
We should call it the Nu-Metal variant. It will just keep Rolling Rolling Rolling, but in the end it doesn't even matter. As you can tell I'm not particularly concerned. The last scary variant from Southern Africa (P1 or Beta iirc) that supposedly evaded the vaccines didn't really come to anything, and judging by Twitter, there's considerable doubt if this will even be able to outcompete Delta.
https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/146400569077...
EddieSteadyGo said:
They do some genetic sequencing on a proportion of cases, so it is based on an extrapolation of the relative proportions vs other variants and the speed of that change. But that depends upon how you select the samples to genetic sequencing - this variant has the s-gene drop out (like b.1.1.7) so you know you likely have a case of the new variant just after you do the pcr test.
At the moment, they are only talking about the transmissibility - I don't think there is any data yet on the virulence.
Thanks - I guess if one wants to be reasonable about it, then if they didn’t say anything now and it truly became the “worst ever” people would be up in arms saying why didn’t they do anything.At the moment, they are only talking about the transmissibility - I don't think there is any data yet on the virulence.
If it turns out to be overblown, they can turn round and say “ we were being very careful to protect you”and many people may accept them.
IMO, the political side and now it looks is almost more important than anything else but then I am a cynical so and so!
EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles.... pretty sure we should be able to do better than that before the end of the day ....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
This is quite epic. There I was thinking I was being a little optimistic with R0 of ~20.
Well as the saying goes, if you tell a lie big enough and often enough.......
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