CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
My daughter started back at school today and it was a new school after we moved recently. She had a cracking time, even though she hadn't met any of her classmates until today. I was absolutely thrilled and it was brilliant seeing kids back at school etc. This morning, apart from the differences in it being a new school, felt, well, normal!
johnboy1975 said:
p1stonhead said:
cymatty said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/notdred/status/13688985...
Interesting if true, suggests we may have seen the worst mutations already. Bad news for the vaccine companies
(joke)Good news indeed if true.
DaveV6 said:
(Whole thing is worth a read)Article said:
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have essentially levelled the playing field. If everyone is staying at home, regardless of how unwell they might feel, then the less virulent variants lose their advantage. Moreover, it could be argued that we are not levelling the playing field at all, but rather tipping the scales in favour of the more virulent variants. After all, while those with mild symptoms are confined to their homes, those with severe symptoms are forced to leave their homes and transition to a crowded environment full of vulnerable people. Hospital.
We have substantially reduced the number of people circulating in the community. If lockdown is working, and stopping the spread of the virus, it might be reducing the circulation of milder versions among the population, while at the same time concentrating people with the most severe disease in hospital wards. It is an assumption that those admitted to hospital have severe disease because they mainly have underlying conditions. But what if some of them also have slightly ‘nastier’ virus particles? We are bringing them together in one place where they can infect staff and vulnerable patients. We are giving an advantage to the ‘nastier’ particles in the hospital environment. Despite protective measures, we are helping them circulate at the same time as we slow the circulation of the ‘milder’ particles.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covids-metamor...
Without vaccine we fully reopened (bar clubs/gigs/big events) on July 4th.
With the vaccine we will reopen (except for the above named, and possibly travel - who knows?) a whole 2 weeks earlier. And still some say we are moving too fast
Worth noting that last years wave started later, so by any sensible metric, restrictions should also finish later. The peak (early April) was 3 months later than this years peak of early January.
Shouldn't we be reopening (at least) 3 months earlier this year?
With the vaccine we will reopen (except for the above named, and possibly travel - who knows?) a whole 2 weeks earlier. And still some say we are moving too fast
Worth noting that last years wave started later, so by any sensible metric, restrictions should also finish later. The peak (early April) was 3 months later than this years peak of early January.
Shouldn't we be reopening (at least) 3 months earlier this year?
johnboy1975 said:
Without vaccine we fully reopened (bar clubs/gigs/big events) on July 4th.
With the vaccine we will reopen (except for the above named, and possibly travel - who knows?) a whole 2 weeks earlier. And still some say we are moving too fast
Worth noting that last years wave started later, so by any sensible metric, restrictions should also finish later. The peak (early April) was 3 months later than this years peak of early January.
Shouldn't we be reopening (at least) 3 months earlier this year?
Well lets see what drakeford says in wales Friday with or first zero deaths for first time since last September we were 2 weeks earlier in so lets see what happens. If wales opens up earlier which would be a complete opposite of last year I can well see England moving forward. In my opinion wales should be fully out by atleast mid april bar overseas travel.With the vaccine we will reopen (except for the above named, and possibly travel - who knows?) a whole 2 weeks earlier. And still some say we are moving too fast
Worth noting that last years wave started later, so by any sensible metric, restrictions should also finish later. The peak (early April) was 3 months later than this years peak of early January.
Shouldn't we be reopening (at least) 3 months earlier this year?
gareth_r said:
John Lee Spectator 2nd May 2020 - Covid’s metamorphosis: has lockdown made the virus more deadly?
We have substantially reduced the number of people circulating in the community. If lockdown is working, and stopping the spread of the virus, it might be reducing the circulation of milder versions among the population, while at the same time concentrating people with the most severe disease in hospital wards. It is an assumption that those admitted to hospital have severe disease because they mainly have underlying conditions. But what if some of them also have slightly ‘nastier’ virus particles? We are bringing them together in one place where they can infect staff and vulnerable patients. We are giving an advantage to the ‘nastier’ particles in the hospital environment. Despite protective measures, we are helping them circulate at the same time as we slow the circulation of the ‘milder’ particles.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covids-metamor...
Interesting. There are 2 schools of thought on this - one of them must be broadly correct. If the Spectator article does indeed turn out to be true, does this mean that bat-flu could get potentially worse & more lethal in the future? Looks like we could have inadvertently unleashed a monster.We have substantially reduced the number of people circulating in the community. If lockdown is working, and stopping the spread of the virus, it might be reducing the circulation of milder versions among the population, while at the same time concentrating people with the most severe disease in hospital wards. It is an assumption that those admitted to hospital have severe disease because they mainly have underlying conditions. But what if some of them also have slightly ‘nastier’ virus particles? We are bringing them together in one place where they can infect staff and vulnerable patients. We are giving an advantage to the ‘nastier’ particles in the hospital environment. Despite protective measures, we are helping them circulate at the same time as we slow the circulation of the ‘milder’ particles.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covids-metamor...
Watch this space....
Boringvolvodriver said:
TheJimi said:
SCEtoAUX said:
"This is a level at which a new wave could easily take off again from".
These people disgust me. Project fear, nothing less.
Who's that quote from, what was the context?These people disgust me. Project fear, nothing less.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/08/retu...
Nice to see some pushback being reported on in that article as well - and from a conservative.
markcoznottz said:
Boringvolvodriver said:
TheJimi said:
SCEtoAUX said:
"This is a level at which a new wave could easily take off again from".
These people disgust me. Project fear, nothing less.
Who's that quote from, what was the context?These people disgust me. Project fear, nothing less.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/08/retu...
What the actual f
k. That’s a profound statement from a pm I hope he can cite that. Is that false positive testing or fabricated nonsense? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
4712 reported today. On the 28/7 last year there were 581 reported.
However... today there were 800k tests carried out. On the 28/7 there were 147k tests. One thing they always neglect to mention is that yes there may be more cases found today but there’s a lot more testing being carried out today as well. This is ‘forgotten’ somehow.
Square Leg said:
Elysium said:
johnboy1975 said:
Square Leg said:
Why are they still sticking to the school testing ‘rule’ re positive test?
I don’t get it.
Hopefully a u turn will be coming soon.
‘The government is sticking to the rule that a positive rapid Covid test done in secondary schools in England cannot be overruled by the gold-standard tests processed by labs. Concerns have been raised by testing experts that significant numbers could be incorrectly told they are infected by the less accurate, rapid tests, leading them and their families to self-isolate for no reason. Asked if children should be allowed to exit self-isolation if the more reliable PCR test gave a negative result, children's minister Vicky Ford told the BBC: "They should not take the risk, we all want to make sure we can keep Covid out of the classrooms here."
AIUI, if you test positive on LFT you are very likely to test positive on PCR, as LFT only captures high amounts, wheras the PCR captures miniscule amounts?I don’t get it.
Hopefully a u turn will be coming soon.
‘The government is sticking to the rule that a positive rapid Covid test done in secondary schools in England cannot be overruled by the gold-standard tests processed by labs. Concerns have been raised by testing experts that significant numbers could be incorrectly told they are infected by the less accurate, rapid tests, leading them and their families to self-isolate for no reason. Asked if children should be allowed to exit self-isolation if the more reliable PCR test gave a negative result, children's minister Vicky Ford told the BBC: "They should not take the risk, we all want to make sure we can keep Covid out of the classrooms here."
(False positives aside, but I think false negatives are the bigger concern? (Not sure why if its just failing to pick up trace amounts, although it could be at the start of an infection I suppose))
The obvious solution would be to require positives to be retested. We don’t know the precise false positive rate for PCR, but if it’s similar, then retested positives will be ‘almost certainly correct’ instead of ‘probably wrong’.
We are doing this with other LFD screening, but inexplicably the Govt decided to pretend false positives don’t exist for in-school tests.
With a single LFD test we would have 3,200 false positives. However, if we test them again with a confirmatory PCR test it should reduce to around 10.
The chances of an LFD postitive child actually having the virus would be 28.98%, but this increases to 99.22% for kids who also go on to test positive via PCR.
It is flat out stupid not to require this. In fact if I was in charge I would immediately require every single positive to be retested.
When we are down to less than 5,000 cases per day that is clearly manageable and it would immediately rule out false positive risk.
Wow, it looks like the doom-mongering Hacks Journalists for Wales Online have had some sort of Epiphany:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
Plymo said:
Wow, it looks like the doom-mongering Hacks Journalists for Wales Online have had some sort of Epiphany:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
Common sense from wales online never. Lets see what dripford says on Friday I cant see how he can keep tier 4 lockdown going much longer we are at September levels now dropping roughly 20% each week. We should be under 1000 cases this week total if the fall continues.https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
MG CHRIS said:
Common sense from wales online never. Lets see what dripford says on Friday I cant see how he can keep tier 4 lockdown going much longer we are at September levels now dropping roughly 20% each week. We should be under 1000 cases this week total if the fall continues.
Can’t be too careful though. You can’t put a value in a single life. MG CHRIS said:
Plymo said:
Wow, it looks like the doom-mongering Hacks Journalists for Wales Online have had some sort of Epiphany:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
Common sense from wales online never. Lets see what dripford says on Friday I cant see how he can keep tier 4 lockdown going much longer we are at September levels now dropping roughly 20% each week. We should be under 1000 cases this week total if the fall continues.https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/lockdo...
The end has a nice quote
"But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal."
Maybe common sense has finally filtered through!
(Still not to the Welsh government though... )
It’s so out of kilter with the case numbers people just won’t take any notice imho.
I thought IOM was covid free?
Covid: Eight in hospital as IOM virus cases rise by 56
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-ma...
Covid: Eight in hospital as IOM virus cases rise by 56
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-ma...
Bullett said:
Kids were buzzing tonight. Lovely to see.
The level of unlock needs to accelerate, people are already ignoring many of the rules anyway. We really need to get things running again.
As per my earlier post that we are lifting lockdown 2 weeks earlier than last year (clearly nonsensical given the vaccine) - I find myself being more drawn to the "open up early" and catch labour on the back foot cunning plan. <insert Baldrick meme here>The level of unlock needs to accelerate, people are already ignoring many of the rules anyway. We really need to get things running again.
May 17th (stage 3 review) would coincide with ALL the 50+ and all the cunerable jabbed +17 days. They could easily unlock stage 4 at the same time. Indeed from what I can see they should. Whether they do or not is another matter entirely I guess
Also, shielding ends at the end of the month I've just been told.
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