Malaysia Airlines Plane "Loses Contact"
Discussion
Mobile Chicane said:
Vipers said:
I vote that no announcements from the Malaysian authorities can be believed. They'll go to any lengths to save face / cover up their incompetence. The wreckage of the plane is in the jungle somewhere in Malaysia / Thailand.
Just as it always has been.
Munter said:
You are right. The manoeuvring was deliberate. But you are missing the most likely option of a failure in the aircraft and resulting hypoxia from your why options.
failures can't produce radar evasions, the plane was flown to evade malaysian radars and then it was flown right around indonesian airspace, something only human could do(or at least program such path in autopilot)AreOut said:
Munter said:
You are right. The manoeuvring was deliberate. But you are missing the most likely option of a failure in the aircraft and resulting hypoxia from your why options.
failures can't produce radar evasions, the plane was flown to evade malaysian radars and then it was flown right around indonesian airspace, something only human could do(or at least program such path in autopilot)Mobile Chicane said:
I vote that no announcements from the Malaysian authorities can be believed. They'll go to any lengths to save face / cover up their incompetence.
The wreckage of the plane is in the jungle somewhere in Malaysia / Thailand.
Just as it always has been.
Or Diego Garcia way as witnessed by residents in the Maldives at the right timeThe wreckage of the plane is in the jungle somewhere in Malaysia / Thailand.
Just as it always has been.
In my opinion there are too many individual scenarios for an accident that would all have to line up perfectly to completely "lose" an aircraft in these circumstances.
Why was the ACARS disabled - (ok suppose there could have been a fault).
Why did the aircraft suddenly disappear in a black spot between ATC authorities (it is possible but also the best place to make off with an aircraft).
Why if there was a sudden failure of cabin pressure did the aircraft not descend to a lower altitude under pilot control on Oxygen and then radio and navigate back to land (a standard procedure)?
Why did the aircraft then turn around or continue to navigate, (effectively now as a stealth aircraft) around radar authorities and then (we think) manage to ditch itself (without leaving a debris field) in a very remote part of the sea.
A failure of all comms, a failure of cabin pressure, the pilots not responding to these emergencies, and an aircraft, damaged or compromised but still be able to navigate undetected, and being fully airworthy for several hours seems a lot of individual specific scenarios coming in to play.
The hypothesis already put forward of a person wanting to go out on a suicide mission, systematically disabling communication systems, disabling the crew/passengers and navigating the aircraft is for me the most plausible.
Disable anything that would identify where you are, disappear in between ATC authorities, disable the cabin/passengers by dropping the cabin pressure, there would be no communications from the passengers then. The aircraft could then be turned around, flown around Radar zones before the final journey out over the sea. The person in control would then go out in the warped knowledge, that they have been involved with the most elaborate aviation mysteries of all time which would cause embarrassment for Malaysia airlines and its government, (who would initially for days be looking in the wrong place). When the Black Boxes are recovered some have said it is possible that, due to the time it flew out over the sea after the last recorded cockpit transmissions (hours earlier) these may have been overwritten, so it would be difficult to ascertain what really did happen in the cockpit.
If it is found it would only be because of some in-depth calculations by Inmarsat. Without their work it would never be found and the mystery would remain unsolved. Assuming it was a suicide mission, it is perhaps what the person flying the aircraft wanted.
Why was the ACARS disabled - (ok suppose there could have been a fault).
Why did the aircraft suddenly disappear in a black spot between ATC authorities (it is possible but also the best place to make off with an aircraft).
Why if there was a sudden failure of cabin pressure did the aircraft not descend to a lower altitude under pilot control on Oxygen and then radio and navigate back to land (a standard procedure)?
Why did the aircraft then turn around or continue to navigate, (effectively now as a stealth aircraft) around radar authorities and then (we think) manage to ditch itself (without leaving a debris field) in a very remote part of the sea.
A failure of all comms, a failure of cabin pressure, the pilots not responding to these emergencies, and an aircraft, damaged or compromised but still be able to navigate undetected, and being fully airworthy for several hours seems a lot of individual specific scenarios coming in to play.
The hypothesis already put forward of a person wanting to go out on a suicide mission, systematically disabling communication systems, disabling the crew/passengers and navigating the aircraft is for me the most plausible.
Disable anything that would identify where you are, disappear in between ATC authorities, disable the cabin/passengers by dropping the cabin pressure, there would be no communications from the passengers then. The aircraft could then be turned around, flown around Radar zones before the final journey out over the sea. The person in control would then go out in the warped knowledge, that they have been involved with the most elaborate aviation mysteries of all time which would cause embarrassment for Malaysia airlines and its government, (who would initially for days be looking in the wrong place). When the Black Boxes are recovered some have said it is possible that, due to the time it flew out over the sea after the last recorded cockpit transmissions (hours earlier) these may have been overwritten, so it would be difficult to ascertain what really did happen in the cockpit.
If it is found it would only be because of some in-depth calculations by Inmarsat. Without their work it would never be found and the mystery would remain unsolved. Assuming it was a suicide mission, it is perhaps what the person flying the aircraft wanted.
Munter said:
Yes a human did it. You are right. But the most obvious reason for that is still some kind of failure, resulting confusion and hypoxia afterwards.
nope, to execute this flight path you need everything but confusion, at least at that moment it was a very very sane person, as sane as someone hijacking the plane could beAdeTuono said:
A bit elaborate for a one-man suicide mission, don't you think?
I wouldn't have thought it would be too difficult for someone with intent and who knows how a 777 works, such as a Captain or First Officer.The accidental sudden depressurisation, comms failure, change of direction theory just seems like there are too many isolated incidents.
If there was something so catastrophic to wipe out ACARS and your transponder, and then depressurise the cabin (such as an onboard fire), and kill all onboard so quickly, the question is why did it only take out those specific communication, position reporting and life support systems and not further critical systems such as hydraulics, electrical and fuel systems that would have brought the aircraft down shortly afterwards.
It just seems a bit too random for both ACARS and Transponder to be deactivated, and a very sudden depressurisation take place, but the aircraft continuing to fly for several hours.
I would believe the depressurisation theory if there wasn't also this question over the disabling of communications and reporting systems.
To me this seems like two separate incidents.
AreOut said:
Munter said:
Yes a human did it. You are right. But the most obvious reason for that is still some kind of failure, resulting confusion and hypoxia afterwards.
nope, to execute this flight path you need everything but confusion, at least at that moment it was a very very sane person, as sane as someone hijacking the plane could beStill far more likely that what was actually a "random path" when trying to decide how to get the plane down safely/control a malfunctioning plane, happens to fit a pattern you've decided to see.
Munter said:
Yeah ok then they hijack a plane for...nothing apparently. Not even publicity. So it's probably not that.
Still far more likely that what was actually a "random path" when trying to decide how to get the plane down safely/control a malfunctioning plane, happens to fit a pattern you've decided to see.
well they don't have to announce hijack in advance, very similar case happened only few weeks before MH370 flight with ethiopian airliner landing in Switzerland instead of Italy when first officer hijacked it to seek asylum, now if he wanted it to disappear or to go somewhere over the ocean and accidentally crashed, it would be the very same situation as with MH370(provided he also turned off all comms)Still far more likely that what was actually a "random path" when trying to decide how to get the plane down safely/control a malfunctioning plane, happens to fit a pattern you've decided to see.
so it's nothing out of this world, it happened before, and it happened also over Indian Ocean before ~20 years when hijackers wanted to land on australian island and pilot crashed the plane because he was under pressure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
note the last two are almost the same model but it's nothing strange since they come from the same fleet
AreOut said:
well they don't have to announce hijack in advance, very similar case happened only few weeks before MH370 flight with ethiopian airliner landing in Switzerland instead of Italy when first officer hijacked it to seek asylum, now if he wanted it to disappear or to go somewhere over the ocean and accidentally crashed, it would be the very same situation as with MH370(provided he also turned off all comms)
so it's nothing out of this world, it happened before, and it happened also over Indian Ocean before ~20 years when hijackers wanted to land on australian island and pilot crashed the plane because he was under pressure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
note the last two are almost the same model but it's nothing strange since they come from the same fleet
Isn't there a stigma associated to suicide in some countries, so a mysterious disappearance means there is no shame/stain on the person's name, as nothing can be proved unless you find the aircraft?so it's nothing out of this world, it happened before, and it happened also over Indian Ocean before ~20 years when hijackers wanted to land on australian island and pilot crashed the plane because he was under pressure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Fl...
note the last two are almost the same model but it's nothing strange since they come from the same fleet
If this is what has happened, (and it was the intention to mysteriously disappear), then the person did all the right things to make the aircraft invisible and has so far succeeded in this aim.
If someone was in a suicide or worse state of mind, and at the same time wanted to seek revenge on the government or airline for a grievance they had, then a country losing an airliner full of people and not being able to find it for months is very embarrassing.
Nobody can tell for sure, but the most probable scenario is that crew member tried to take it to australian territory and failed because of pressure from passengers/other crew members. Or there was a mechanical/electrical problem after fiddling with all the switches to turn off comms and what not.
AreOut said:
Nobody can tell for sure, but the most probable scenario is that crew member tried to take it to australian territory and failed because of pressure from passengers/other crew members. Or there was a mechanical/electrical problem after fiddling with all the switches to turn off comms and what not.
Oh FFS! Did your hypothesis not get the appropriate investigation from 'the authorities'?AreOut said:
Nobody can tell for sure, but the most probable scenario is that crew member tried to take it to australian territory and failed because of pressure from passengers/other crew members. Or there was a mechanical/electrical problem after fiddling with all the switches to turn off comms and what not.
I for one am always convinced by theories that include "and what not".davepoth said:
AreOut said:
Nobody can tell for sure, but the most probable scenario is that crew member tried to take it to australian territory and failed because of pressure from passengers/other crew members. Or there was a mechanical/electrical problem after fiddling with all the switches to turn off comms and what not.
I for one am always convinced by theories that include "and what not".Given the length of time since the crash and the consequent deterioration of the evidence and the likelyhood of months of effort being required to identify the crash site and untold periods of further effort being required to regain the physical evidence if the site is discovered it is a moot point as to what the actual evidence will turn out to be. This is a bloody big ocean and what little evidence there may be could take a very long search to discover.
I remain hopeful that some evidence will be achieved in time but how much and of what quality and whether this actually enables definite conclusions to be drawn remains in the lap of the Gods. I have no idea how long this will take and whether in fact much evidence will be gleaned. But I do hope so in order to allow closure for the families and whatever chain of events then seems probable to be considered and acted upon by the Air industry.
No, they would have turned to canibalism so there's probably only a few very fat well fed passengers left by now. Given that they'll be very heavy, they could all run to the front of the plane at the same time to affect a sudden nose down attitude which would start a re entry sequence. So we may soon see the plane reappearing as suddenly as it disappeared.
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