How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)
Discussion
jjlynn27 said:
Driving them mega drachma houses might be a tad difficult considering the state of the roads.
Who is expecting you to believe that it was 'purely altruistic act'?
Oops, for houses read cars. As for the state of the roads, you doWho is expecting you to believe that it was 'purely altruistic act'?
actually know Northampton, do you not?
On the point of who is expecting me to believe it was purely altruistic act, Mr T for one.
wc98 said:
jjlynn27 said:
Driving them mega drachma houses might be a tad difficult considering the state of the roads.
don't know why, seems easy enough with a mega dollar one 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20dj5MEmcv4&t=...
That's impressive.
Dr Jekyll said:
Before the Euro was adopted there was a long dispute between those EU economists (mainly German) who said a single currency wouldn't work without fiscal union and therefore should be kicked down the road, and those (mainly French) who said a single currency wouldn't work without fiscal union therefore should be implemented to force fiscal union. The whole point was that crises would arise and provide the opportunity for further integration. That's why the rules were bent in order to let Greece in the Euro, it wasn't despite the economic danger but because of it.
yes , i appear to be forgetting historical context and assuming a common sense approach should have been taken to the greek application. it certainly looks like it is working at the moment. how many more will realise too late they couldn't leave even if they wanted to (note to remainiacs, i am not suggesting any other countries population would vote to leave any time soon).gooner1 said:
Oops, for houses read cars. As for the state of the roads, you do
actually know Northampton, do you not?
On the point of who is expecting me to believe it was purely altruistic act, Mr T for one.
I tend to get to Sixfields, then turn around. actually know Northampton, do you not?
On the point of who is expecting me to believe it was purely altruistic act, Mr T for one.
I don't believe in altruism, but I do believe that they wanted to enlarge the market and not make life worse for Greeks. My experience of Greece is mostly Crete where we used to have tiny little shack. If you wanted anything done, anything at all, you were asked for 'grease', rather openly.
Mrr T said:
So let me get this straight it’s the fault of the EU not sure who he/she is (I think you mean the other Eurozone countries which is a different thing). For not overruling the democratically elected government of Greece and stopping them joining the euro. So you complain the EU antidemocratic but then blame them for not acting in an antidemocratic fashion. You do follow the irony here?
The Greeks might have wanted to join, but the Eurozone rules should have precluded it - that has nothing to do with Greek democracy. Which has since been trampled over by the overseers of the Euro.The Greeks have fundamentally created their own problem. Too much spending, not enough revenue. That bit is only at their door. But being in the Euro compounds their issues and I'm really not convinced the Euro overseers' actions have helped them. Short term it's helped the Euro (in part because it's allowed the shenanigans to be masked to people like the German public). Long term, we'll see. tbh I'm surprised it's been allowed to continue as long as it has.
Murph7355 said:
The Greeks might have wanted to join, but the Eurozone rules should have precluded it - that has nothing to do with Greek democracy. Which has since been trampled over by the overseers of the Euro.
The Greeks have fundamentally created their own problem. Too much spending, not enough revenue. That bit is only at their door. But being in the Euro compounds their issues and I'm really not convinced the Euro overseers' actions have helped them. Short term it's helped the Euro (in part because it's allowed the shenanigans to be masked to people like the German public). Long term, we'll see. tbh I'm surprised it's been allowed to continue as long as it has.
I really don’t understand the Greek ‘created their own problem’ myth. They were given, quite literally, loose money courtesy of the Euro. The ECB and the rest of the hierarchy ignored the situation until it blew up. It’s not as if many analysts weren’t calling the situation out? We are now in a similar situation re Italy. Everyone knows it’s bust. Yet here we are suggesting it’s viable. Why? It’s fThe Greeks have fundamentally created their own problem. Too much spending, not enough revenue. That bit is only at their door. But being in the Euro compounds their issues and I'm really not convinced the Euro overseers' actions have helped them. Short term it's helped the Euro (in part because it's allowed the shenanigans to be masked to people like the German public). Long term, we'll see. tbh I'm surprised it's been allowed to continue as long as it has.
ked. All it will take is a few more ratchets on the fed base rate and it will be apparent that the target2 set up is screwed. The unraveling could be horrendously fast.Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
gooner1 said:
Murph7355 said:
Sway said:
They aren't discretely shown on most European central Bank balance sheets - as i said, it's possible to find the data, but it's not readily apparent unless you know specifically what to look for.
How do you think the average German voter is going to react when they find out the bundesbank has given a trillion euros worth of free money to the rest of the eurozone?
It's an opaque paper loss at present... When/if it ever materialises, all hell will break lose. Hopefully not when parties like the AFD have more of a presence. How do you think the average German voter is going to react when they find out the bundesbank has given a trillion euros worth of free money to the rest of the eurozone?
This is why Greece and Italy can never be allowed to leave the Eurozone/EU.
Mrr T said:
I am not disputing the fall in GDP or the increase in suicides. I am pointing out the habit of some brexiters to blame everything on this mythical person called the EU. Can you provide a photo of him/her?
Excep
The Greek democratically elected governments caused the problems and then decided it was better to stay in the euro and the EU a decision which In my view was entirely correct.
Just ensure you use the same logic when attributing UK successes to being in the EU. Excep
The Greek democratically elected governments caused the problems and then decided it was better to stay in the euro and the EU a decision which In my view was entirely correct.
You are, of course, correct about Greece. A perfect storm of a situation.
audit.
Many of us are very clear, which is why we voted the other way.
"So let me get this right" ho ho ho that's where the irony is it's obviously wrong.
There was no mention of democratic/undemocratic in my one line post.
Standard remainer tactic - make something up to argue against when reality is too much to cope with..
It's either that or make it up purely for scaremongering purposes. Little has change since the unsuccessful remain campaign, you'd think the message would get across after the vote was lost..
There was no mention of democratic/undemocratic in my one line post.
Standard remainer tactic - make something up to argue against when reality is too much to cope with..
It's either that or make it up purely for scaremongering purposes. Little has change since the unsuccessful remain campaign, you'd think the message would get across after the vote was lost..
Ridgemont said:
I really don’t understand the Greek ‘created their own problem’ myth. They were given, quite literally, loose money courtesy of the Euro. The ECB and the rest of the hierarchy ignored the situation until it blew up. It’s not as if many analysts weren’t calling the situation out? We are now in a similar situation re Italy. Everyone knows it’s bust. Yet here we are suggesting it’s viable. Why? It’s fked. All it will take is a few more ratchets on the fed base rate and it will be apparent that the target2 set up is screwed. The unraveling could be horrendously fast.
Greece had fiscal issues before it joined the Eurozone (as, frankly, did Italy). They were able to devalue their own currencies when not in the system, but that option no longer exists.ked. All it will take is a few more ratchets on the fed base rate and it will be apparent that the target2 set up is screwed. The unraveling could be horrendously fast.Being part of the Euro has compounded their problems. But it is not the root cause of them. The root cause is not dissimilar to here - their population wants lots of services, but no bugger is prepared to pay for them. Here we can continue the nonsense as enough at the top end of the system aren't yet prepared to forgo the rules. In Greece it seems that everyone thinks it's fair game to evade tax (and they're nowhere near as wealthy a country anyway).
Personally I'm not one of those that blames banks for people getting themselves into debt. Of course if the bank fails to do its credit checks properly and then doesn't get repaid, then the bank takes a chunk of the blame and suffers too (it doesn't get its money back).
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Since then both the Greek people and the Eurozone masters have made bad move after bad move. To lay the blame solely at the EU/Eurozone is as daft as to lay it solely at the Greeks.
It feels to me like they have themselves in a bit of a death spiral. The debtors are in so much debt that there is no real way out now (and know that they owe so much it's no longer them that have the issue but the creditors). The creditors can't admit defeat and do what needs to be done (fiscal transfers) as their electorates would go ape s
t.You have to admire the Eurozones ability to kick cans. But I simply don't see how that can go on forever.
Murph7355 said:
Greece had fiscal issues before it joined the Eurozone (as, frankly, did Italy). They were able to devalue their own currencies when not in the system, but that option no longer exists.
Being part of the Euro has compounded their problems. But it is not the root cause of them. The root cause is not dissimilar to here - their population wants lots of services, but no bugger is prepared to pay for them. Here we can continue the nonsense as enough at the top end of the system aren't yet prepared to forgo the rules. In Greece it seems that everyone thinks it's fair game to evade tax (and they're nowhere near as wealthy a country anyway).
Personally I'm not one of those that blames banks for people getting themselves into debt. Of course if the bank fails to do its credit checks properly and then doesn't get repaid, then the bank takes a chunk of the blame and suffers too (it doesn't get its money back).
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Since then both the Greek people and the Eurozone masters have made bad move after bad move. To lay the blame solely at the EU/Eurozone is as daft as to lay it solely at the Greeks.
It feels to me like they have themselves in a bit of a death spiral. The debtors are in so much debt that there is no real way out now (and know that they owe so much it's no longer them that have the issue but the creditors). The creditors can't admit defeat and do what needs to be done (fiscal transfers) as their electorates would go ape st.
You have to admire the Eurozones ability to kick cans. But I simply don't see how that can go on forever.
I agree completely. We maybe on different sides of the Brexit debate but that cannot alter the facts of history.Being part of the Euro has compounded their problems. But it is not the root cause of them. The root cause is not dissimilar to here - their population wants lots of services, but no bugger is prepared to pay for them. Here we can continue the nonsense as enough at the top end of the system aren't yet prepared to forgo the rules. In Greece it seems that everyone thinks it's fair game to evade tax (and they're nowhere near as wealthy a country anyway).
Personally I'm not one of those that blames banks for people getting themselves into debt. Of course if the bank fails to do its credit checks properly and then doesn't get repaid, then the bank takes a chunk of the blame and suffers too (it doesn't get its money back).
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Since then both the Greek people and the Eurozone masters have made bad move after bad move. To lay the blame solely at the EU/Eurozone is as daft as to lay it solely at the Greeks.
It feels to me like they have themselves in a bit of a death spiral. The debtors are in so much debt that there is no real way out now (and know that they owe so much it's no longer them that have the issue but the creditors). The creditors can't admit defeat and do what needs to be done (fiscal transfers) as their electorates would go ape s
t.You have to admire the Eurozones ability to kick cans. But I simply don't see how that can go on forever.
A couple more comments on Greece.
1. While obviously with the benefits of hindsight the euro zone countries should have refuse Greece membership of the euro. With hindsight we would all be rich. There is also the question how could the Eurozone countries have refused the oldest democracy in Europe.
2. While I agree most countries including the UK like things they cannot pay for. The story of the Greek debt crisis is even worst. Before joining the euro the drachma traded 400bp or more above the euro, on joining rates had fallen to 30bp above the euro. Greece had traditionally run high levels of debt. This fall in the cost of debt meant the Greeks did not even need to cut expenditure. Even if it continued as it was the reduced costs would have lead it to a more balanced budget. However, rather than leave expenditure as it was successive governments increased expenditure.
The was a long running tread on the Greek debt crisis. One of the best treads ever on PH almost no shouting with each side accepting the right to disagree. When I started posting I firmly believed:
1. The best option for Greece was default and leave the euro.
2. The can could not be kicked for ever.
Eventually as I did more research I changed my mind on 1, and since the can has now been kicked for 10 years and is now further down the road than ever, I seem to have been wrong on 2 as well.
Mrr T said:
Murph7355 said:
Greece had fiscal issues before it joined the Eurozone (as, frankly, did Italy). They were able to devalue their own currencies when not in the system, but that option no longer exists.
Being part of the Euro has compounded their problems. But it is not the root cause of them. The root cause is not dissimilar to here - their population wants lots of services, but no bugger is prepared to pay for them. Here we can continue the nonsense as enough at the top end of the system aren't yet prepared to forgo the rules. In Greece it seems that everyone thinks it's fair game to evade tax (and they're nowhere near as wealthy a country anyway).
Personally I'm not one of those that blames banks for people getting themselves into debt. Of course if the bank fails to do its credit checks properly and then doesn't get repaid, then the bank takes a chunk of the blame and suffers too (it doesn't get its money back).
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Since then both the Greek people and the Eurozone masters have made bad move after bad move. To lay the blame solely at the EU/Eurozone is as daft as to lay it solely at the Greeks.
It feels to me like they have themselves in a bit of a death spiral. The debtors are in so much debt that there is no real way out now (and know that they owe so much it's no longer them that have the issue but the creditors). The creditors can't admit defeat and do what needs to be done (fiscal transfers) as their electorates would go ape st.
You have to admire the Eurozones ability to kick cans. But I simply don't see how that can go on forever.
I agree completely. We maybe on different sides of the Brexit debate but that cannot alter the facts of history.Being part of the Euro has compounded their problems. But it is not the root cause of them. The root cause is not dissimilar to here - their population wants lots of services, but no bugger is prepared to pay for them. Here we can continue the nonsense as enough at the top end of the system aren't yet prepared to forgo the rules. In Greece it seems that everyone thinks it's fair game to evade tax (and they're nowhere near as wealthy a country anyway).
Personally I'm not one of those that blames banks for people getting themselves into debt. Of course if the bank fails to do its credit checks properly and then doesn't get repaid, then the bank takes a chunk of the blame and suffers too (it doesn't get its money back).
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Since then both the Greek people and the Eurozone masters have made bad move after bad move. To lay the blame solely at the EU/Eurozone is as daft as to lay it solely at the Greeks.
It feels to me like they have themselves in a bit of a death spiral. The debtors are in so much debt that there is no real way out now (and know that they owe so much it's no longer them that have the issue but the creditors). The creditors can't admit defeat and do what needs to be done (fiscal transfers) as their electorates would go ape s
t.You have to admire the Eurozones ability to kick cans. But I simply don't see how that can go on forever.
A couple more comments on Greece.
1. While obviously with the benefits of hindsight the euro zone countries should have refuse Greece membership of the euro. With hindsight we would all be rich. There is also the question how could the Eurozone countries have refused the oldest democracy in Europe.
2. While I agree most countries including the UK like things they cannot pay for. The story of the Greek debt crisis is even worst. Before joining the euro the drachma traded 400bp or more above the euro, on joining rates had fallen to 30bp above the euro. Greece had traditionally run high levels of debt. This fall in the cost of debt meant the Greeks did not even need to cut expenditure. Even if it continued as it was the reduced costs would have lead it to a more balanced budget. However, rather than leave expenditure as it was successive governments increased expenditure.
The was a long running tread on the Greek debt crisis. One of the best treads ever on PH almost no shouting with each side accepting the right to disagree. When I started posting I firmly believed:
1. The best option for Greece was default and leave the euro.
2. The can could not be kicked for ever.
Eventually as I did more research I changed my mind on 1, and since the can has now been kicked for 10 years and is now further down the road than ever, I seem to have been wrong on 2 as well.
I do recall posting three links not long ago, two with narrative setting out how the EU got its response wrong and a third for balance which glossed over the mistakes.
As to can kicking, the times it works are when the can makes ground before rolling back. The time when it doesn't work hasn't arrived yet. Nobody knows when it won't work and for that reason nobody can say definitively that it will never stop working. Confidence has been maintained by better media management, ongoing problems in the EZ are being kept out of the limelight. To what degree the largely pro-EU media including the BBC are complicit in this isn't clear.
Mrr T said:
...
I agree completely. We maybe on different sides of the Brexit debate but that cannot alter the facts of history.
...
I suspect we are not that far apart on the divide tbh. The EU could be so much more than it is. But the politics get in the way. I agree completely. We maybe on different sides of the Brexit debate but that cannot alter the facts of history.
...
Mrr T said:
...
1. While obviously with the benefits of hindsight the euro zone countries should have refuse Greece membership of the euro. With hindsight we would all be rich. There is also the question how could the Eurozone countries have refused the oldest democracy in Europe.
...
There was zero hindsight needed. The EU had rules for entrants. They frigged them. You don't need hindsight to know that won't work out.1. While obviously with the benefits of hindsight the euro zone countries should have refuse Greece membership of the euro. With hindsight we would all be rich. There is also the question how could the Eurozone countries have refused the oldest democracy in Europe.
...
Mrr T said:
...and since the can has now been kicked for 10 years and is now further down the road than ever, I seem to have been wrong on 2 as well.
What I'm really interested to see pan out is how the rest of the world responds to what is happening inside the Eurozone. I guess it's just more debt and in many respects no different to the "subsidising" the SE of England does for the rest of the UK (lights blue touch paper ), or California and a few other states do in the US, or HK/Shanghai/Beijing no doubt do for the rest of China.But while ever the EU isn't a single nation state, it feels like the Euro is open to being taken exception of by the big players if the winds change...can't quite get it straight in my head why though
The Dangerous Elk said:
jjlynn27 said:
They still want to know what UK wants. There was no answer from May on that.
Then they are deafThis seems to be repeated by the media on a near daily basis.
Its a total failure to recognise what a negotiation is.
The UK has been quite clear on what it would like, in broad terms, as the final deal. But it is not possible to state details of elements of a final deal that are still to be negotiated.
To state such details is a move to ignore the negotiation process and become a self declared 'dictatorship' towards the EU, which they will laugh at.
Similarly, we should be laughing at them if they were to take the same approach.
Which is exactly why the pro-EU media play careful attention to not ask the same questions towards the EU that they are asking of the UK.
And it is why BOTH sides have stated "we will not give a running commentary on the negotiation".
Because, ...........things are still being negotiated.
Edited by Atomic12C on Monday 19th February 11:31
turbobloke said:
As to can kicking, the times it works are when the can makes ground before rolling back.
Even when it 'works', there is a cost to kicking the can. It may work as a long-term strategy that avoids the Euro going pop, but dragging the pain out over a longer time frame in the hope that *something* happens means, for example, that the Greek youth has to wait even longer before finding a job, or more talent leaves those countries. The stats on Greece and the rest of Southern Europe don't touch on the societal harm that is being caused and that will have an impact for decades.
It's one thing to have lots of people on the dole for a year or two, but decades is another thing entirely.
Murph7355 said:
There was zero hindsight needed. The EU had rules for entrants. They frigged them. You don't need hindsight to know that won't work out.
IIRC the trouble was though, 'fiscally prudent' Germany was also involved in funny business with GS too, so by their own transgressions, they were ill placed to block the deal on those grounds.As others have said, with regard to the present Euro situation, there is a very good argument for either splitting the currency into Tier 1 and Tier 2 currencies, or Germany leaving.
Digga said:
....
As others have said, with regard to the present Euro situation, there is a very good argument for either splitting the currency into Tier 1 and Tier 2 currencies, or Germany leaving.
Neither of which likely to happen this side of hell freezing over. It would be a tacit admission of failure.As others have said, with regard to the present Euro situation, there is a very good argument for either splitting the currency into Tier 1 and Tier 2 currencies, or Germany leaving.
Murph7355 said:
Digga said:
....
As others have said, with regard to the present Euro situation, there is a very good argument for either splitting the currency into Tier 1 and Tier 2 currencies, or Germany leaving.
Neither of which likely to happen this side of hell freezing over. It would be a tacit admission of failure.As others have said, with regard to the present Euro situation, there is a very good argument for either splitting the currency into Tier 1 and Tier 2 currencies, or Germany leaving.
Yes, it would eventually unwind as the 'SudEuro' devalued and the tourist and export cash started flowing, but that'll make zero difference to the current debts and liabilities.
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