How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
Tuna said:
In a parallel universe somewhere nearby:
Brian: I'm going to cancel our member ship of the "Friends of Dominos Club"
Dribbly: WHAT?! How can you do that. We get two pounds off every Dominos Pizza! How can you cancel that?!
Brian: But it costs us £200 a week to be members, we don't eat that much p..
Dribbly: But two pounds! You can't deny that a saving of two pounds is better than no saving!
Brian: It doesn't work out, if you do the maths it's..
Dribbly: You don't get it do you? Is two pounds off a saving or not?
Brian: Not if you take into account the membership fee. Besides, they demand we only eat Dominos Pizzas.
Dribbly: What - are you saying you hate Pizza? You're anti-pizza aren't you?
Brian: When did I ever say that? A pizza from Sainsbury's is half the price... I'd be happy with that.
Dribbly: So you want to give up a two pound saving for a pizza made by people with no food standards?
Brian: What are you talking about?
Dribbly: Dominos have the highest food standards. You want to give that up for an unknown saving.
Brian: Uh.. Sainsbury's have food standards, you do know that? And the saving can be calculated, it's...
Dribbly: There's no saving on Sainsbury's Pizza!! You have to pay the full price!
Brian: Which is less than Dominos..
Dribbly: OMG, you hate Dominos. You're trying to stop me from eating them!
Brian: No, not really, it's fine to have a Dominos every now and th..
Dribbly: You're forcing me to pay an extra two pounds and trying to ban Dominos!
Brian: You really are a cretin, aren't you?
Dribbly: Duh... it's spelt crouton. Don't you even know that?
Brian: I'm going to cancel our member ship of the "Friends of Dominos Club"
Dribbly: WHAT?! How can you do that. We get two pounds off every Dominos Pizza! How can you cancel that?!
Brian: But it costs us £200 a week to be members, we don't eat that much p..
Dribbly: But two pounds! You can't deny that a saving of two pounds is better than no saving!
Brian: It doesn't work out, if you do the maths it's..
Dribbly: You don't get it do you? Is two pounds off a saving or not?
Brian: Not if you take into account the membership fee. Besides, they demand we only eat Dominos Pizzas.
Dribbly: What - are you saying you hate Pizza? You're anti-pizza aren't you?
Brian: When did I ever say that? A pizza from Sainsbury's is half the price... I'd be happy with that.
Dribbly: So you want to give up a two pound saving for a pizza made by people with no food standards?
Brian: What are you talking about?
Dribbly: Dominos have the highest food standards. You want to give that up for an unknown saving.
Brian: Uh.. Sainsbury's have food standards, you do know that? And the saving can be calculated, it's...
Dribbly: There's no saving on Sainsbury's Pizza!! You have to pay the full price!
Brian: Which is less than Dominos..
Dribbly: OMG, you hate Dominos. You're trying to stop me from eating them!
Brian: No, not really, it's fine to have a Dominos every now and th..
Dribbly: You're forcing me to pay an extra two pounds and trying to ban Dominos!
Brian: You really are a cretin, aren't you?
Dribbly: Duh... it's spelt crouton. Don't you even know that?
Nickgnome said:
Sway said:
Nickgnome said:
Alfa numeric said:
andymadmak said:
Ghibli said:
andymadmak said:
OK, so we can trade under WTO. Now what costs would be involved in that trade that we currently do not have to pay?
You can express them as a % of the value if that makes it easier for you
We would have tarriffs with the EU and if we lose our trade agreements we will have tarriffs with those countries.You can express them as a % of the value if that makes it easier for you
Perhaps you could look up all the agreements and tarriffs and let me know.
What's the problem? The paperwork? The tariffs? Come on now Ghibli, you surely have to have a reason for objecting to a trading system that most of the world make use of?
One example of the change:
BBC article said:
Every WTO member has a list of tariffs (taxes on imports of goods) and quotas (limits on the number of goods) that they apply to other countries. These are known as their WTO schedules.
The average EU tariff is pretty low (about 2.6% for non-agricultural products) - but, in some sectors, tariffs can be quite high. Under WTO rules, cars and car parts, for example, would be taxed at 10% every time they crossed the UK-EU border. And agricultural tariffs are significantly higher, rising to an average of over 35% for dairy products.
After Brexit, the UK could choose to lower tariffs or waive them altogether, in an attempt to stimulate free trade. That could mean some cheaper products coming into the country for consumers but it could also risk driving some UK producers out of business.
It's important to remember that, under the WTO's "most favoured nation" rules, the UK couldn't lower tariffs for the EU, or any specific country, alone. It would have to treat every other WTO member around the world in the same way.
My understanding of this is that any car built in the UK that used parts manufactured in the EU would increase in price as there would be a 10% tariff applied to those parts. In turn completed cars would cost more in the EU as a 10% tariff would be applied when they are imported into the EU. The average EU tariff is pretty low (about 2.6% for non-agricultural products) - but, in some sectors, tariffs can be quite high. Under WTO rules, cars and car parts, for example, would be taxed at 10% every time they crossed the UK-EU border. And agricultural tariffs are significantly higher, rising to an average of over 35% for dairy products.
After Brexit, the UK could choose to lower tariffs or waive them altogether, in an attempt to stimulate free trade. That could mean some cheaper products coming into the country for consumers but it could also risk driving some UK producers out of business.
It's important to remember that, under the WTO's "most favoured nation" rules, the UK couldn't lower tariffs for the EU, or any specific country, alone. It would have to treat every other WTO member around the world in the same way.
So for example a MINI produced at its Oxford plant would cost more in the UK as parts are sourced from the EU (these costs could be avoided in the EU by transferring production destined for the European market to its plant in Holland) whilst BMW's built in Germany that use engines built in its Hams Hall plant in the UK would be subject to a 10% tariff on the engine as it entered the EU and then another 10% tariff on the car as it was imported into the UK.
There's an old Guardian article that illustrates this- the MINI's crankshaft apparently crosses the Channel three times before being fitted to the car, meaning that it would be subject to the 10% tariff three times.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/b...
It's examples like this that are the reason for so few politicians and even fewer businesspeople wanting to leave without a deal.
Can someone confirm either way please.
Notwithstanding any delays in movement or duty is damaging.
Claim Inward Processing Relief at (or rather prior, under pre-clearance) point of entry of the component. This requires a level of traceability to confirm to HMRC that the component was indeed exported back out.
Retrospective relief, to reclaim the tariffs paid upon point of entry of the component.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
Nope, there's plenty more explaining it - that was first link, and we submitted those transition schedules quite some time ago...
So where is the commitment that the UK will amend our EU matched schedules post leaving the EU?That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
Roboraver said:
Confirmation - France to carry out full customs and immigration checks under no deal
http://www.senat.fr/leg/pjl18-009.html
All checks of goods and passengers will be restablished immediately as will SPS, veterinary checks and default safety customs declarations/checks.
Goodbye M20, goodbye M26; hello £250m lost per day to the UK economy.
Just skim read that and it says no such thing.http://www.senat.fr/leg/pjl18-009.html
All checks of goods and passengers will be restablished immediately as will SPS, veterinary checks and default safety customs declarations/checks.
Goodbye M20, goodbye M26; hello £250m lost per day to the UK economy.
It's a document that allows the French Government to put in place any legislation they see fit to establish 3rd country rules against the UK after a 12 month period following the withdrawal date.
It doesn't state anything will be changed immediately, and any change is up for debate in the French parliament.
Alfa numeric said:
The BBC published a Reality Check article about trading under WTO rules: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872
One example of the change:
A pretty misleading article leading to some incorrect assumptions. WTO rules do not specify a specific tariff to be applied to car parts (or anything else for that matter) - they specify a maximum tariff, and members can set any rate below that amount - right down to zero. Strangely, the BBC and a number of other commentators keep making the mistake of applying 'WTO tariffs' when they explain how much it will cost us.One example of the change:
BBC article said:
Every WTO member has a list of tariffs (taxes on imports of goods) and quotas (limits on the number of goods) that they apply to other countries. These are known as their WTO schedules.
The average EU tariff is pretty low (about 2.6% for non-agricultural products) - but, in some sectors, tariffs can be quite high. Under WTO rules, cars and car parts, for example, would be taxed at 10% every time they crossed the UK-EU border. And agricultural tariffs are significantly higher, rising to an average of over 35% for dairy products.
After Brexit, the UK could choose to lower tariffs or waive them altogether, in an attempt to stimulate free trade. That could mean some cheaper products coming into the country for consumers but it could also risk driving some UK producers out of business.
It's important to remember that, under the WTO's "most favoured nation" rules, the UK couldn't lower tariffs for the EU, or any specific country, alone. It would have to treat every other WTO member around the world in the same way.
My understanding of this is that any car built in the UK that used parts manufactured in the EU would increase in price as there would be a 10% tariff applied to those parts. In turn completed cars would cost more in the EU as a 10% tariff would be applied when they are imported into the EU. The average EU tariff is pretty low (about 2.6% for non-agricultural products) - but, in some sectors, tariffs can be quite high. Under WTO rules, cars and car parts, for example, would be taxed at 10% every time they crossed the UK-EU border. And agricultural tariffs are significantly higher, rising to an average of over 35% for dairy products.
After Brexit, the UK could choose to lower tariffs or waive them altogether, in an attempt to stimulate free trade. That could mean some cheaper products coming into the country for consumers but it could also risk driving some UK producers out of business.
It's important to remember that, under the WTO's "most favoured nation" rules, the UK couldn't lower tariffs for the EU, or any specific country, alone. It would have to treat every other WTO member around the world in the same way.
As others have pointed out, no you don't pay a tariff for parts every time they cross the channel.
Under WTO rules, we could adopt the EU tariff schedule (not a particularly nice idea, it's byzantine in its complexity), then immediately drop the 80% that we currently pay to the EU from that schedule and the tariff revenue to the government would be the same, whilst giving all non-EU imports an immediate price cut.
Sway said:
There isn't one - although as per the little snippet you quoted, it's stated that a UK centric set of schedules will be developed.
That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
Also very different to your claim they are temporary for the transition only, not forgetting that statement was made before A50 had even been triggered and a transition agreed.That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
Sway said:
There isn't one - although as per the little snippet you quoted, it's stated that a UK centric set of schedules will be developed.
That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
It's a hopeless dream, I know, but wouldn't it be nice if we simplified the tariff schedule once we've left? How many separate items does the EU have a tariff defined for?That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
There isn't one - although as per the little snippet you quoted, it's stated that a UK centric set of schedules will be developed.
That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
Also very different to your claim they are temporary for the transition only, not forgetting that statement was made before A50 had even been triggered and a transition agreed.That though, is still very different from your claim that we are committing to maintaining the EU protectionist tariffs once we've fully left.
This is a separate transition period. Nothing to do with the EU. This is the transition for the UK within WTO to disentangle from the current schedules.
Tuna said:
A pretty misleading article leading to some incorrect assumptions. WTO rules do not specify a specific tariff to be applied to car parts (or anything else for that matter) - they specify a maximum tariff, and members can set any rate below that amount - right down to zero. Strangely, the BBC and a number of other commentators keep making the mistake of applying 'WTO tariffs' when they explain how much it will cost us.
As others have pointed out, no you don't pay a tariff for parts every time they cross the channel.
Under WTO rules, we could adopt the EU tariff schedule (not a particularly nice idea, it's byzantine in its complexity), then immediately drop the 80% that we currently pay to the EU from that schedule and the tariff revenue to the government would be the same, whilst giving all non-EU imports an immediate price cut.
And, as I understand it, we could play 'tunes' so that we drop tariffs to zero where we have no industry to defend and keep tariffs high where this is judged necessary, even within the same industry. So, picking an extreme example, we could set zero tariffs for oranges (not being growers of same) but the highest permissible tariffs to protect Dundee's marmalade industry.As others have pointed out, no you don't pay a tariff for parts every time they cross the channel.
Under WTO rules, we could adopt the EU tariff schedule (not a particularly nice idea, it's byzantine in its complexity), then immediately drop the 80% that we currently pay to the EU from that schedule and the tariff revenue to the government would be the same, whilst giving all non-EU imports an immediate price cut.
Sway said:
You haven't bothered reading the article.
This is a separate transition period. Nothing to do with the EU. This is the transition for the UK within WTO to disentangle from the current schedules.
Okay, so how long is this transition?This is a separate transition period. Nothing to do with the EU. This is the transition for the UK within WTO to disentangle from the current schedules.
1 year, 5 years, 50 years, never?
I back never.
paulrockliffe said:
Sway said:
Tuna said:
Goodbye shipping goods to the rest of Europe through France?
The Dutch/Rotterdam suddenly start hearing music in their ears... A lot happening on the continent. A lot of people living in a bubble.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
You haven't bothered reading the article.
This is a separate transition period. Nothing to do with the EU. This is the transition for the UK within WTO to disentangle from the current schedules.
Okay, so how long is this transition?This is a separate transition period. Nothing to do with the EU. This is the transition for the UK within WTO to disentangle from the current schedules.
1 year, 5 years, 50 years, never?
I back never.
I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
Sway said:
How much do you want to back 'never' with?
I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
I'm not surprised, it's a bit keyboard warriorish don't you think?I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
How much do you want to back 'never' with?
I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
I'm not surprised, it's a bit keyboard warriorish don't you think?I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
Others have said similar assertions.
Yet none seem willing to actually back up these assertions.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
How much do you want to back 'never' with?
I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
I'm not surprised, it's a bit keyboard warriorish don't you think?I've offered several charity bets that the schedules will be materially different (and allowed the counterparty to the bet to define that "material difference") within a year of leaving any EU transition period.
No one has yet been willing to take that bet for charity...
paulrockliffe said:
Sway said:
Tuna said:
Goodbye shipping goods to the rest of Europe through France?
The Dutch/Rotterdam suddenly start hearing music in their ears... 
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