Climate change - the POLITICAL debate (Vol 6)

Climate change - the POLITICAL debate (Vol 6)

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PRTVR

7,178 posts

223 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Diderot said:
What was that song by Go West? Ah yes, the King of Wishful Thinking. You just need to admit once and for all models have, are and will always be wrong.
I think you are incorrect, the models are always right.
You just need to adjust the data. hehe

https://youtu.be/0_FegrqvdbI

kerplunk

7,142 posts

208 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Diderot said:
What was that song by Go West? Ah yes, the King of Wishful Thinking. You just need to admit once and for all models have, are and will always be wrong.
I think you are incorrect, the models are always right.
You just need to adjust the data. hehe

https://youtu.be/0_FegrqvdbI
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh



robinessex

11,107 posts

183 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
NZ to launch world-first climate change rules

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56728381

New Zealand is to become the world's first country to bring in a law forcing its financial firms to report on the effects of climate change.
The country wants to be carbon neutral by 2050 and says the financial sector needs to play its part.
Banks, insurers and fund managers can do this by knowing the environmental effect of their investments, says its Climate Change Minister James Shaw.
Legislation is expected to receive its first reading this week.........continues

The start of political bullst legislation. Probably give a load of company lawyers fat fees I suppose.

robinessex

11,107 posts

183 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
COP26: Delaying key climate meeting preferable to 'messing it up'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-567...

A former UN climate chief says that delaying the critical Glasgow meeting this year would be preferable to risking a failed conference.
There have been doubts over the wisdom of having thousands of delegates attending the event - known as COP26 - while concerns linger over Covid-19.
The UK says that a physical meeting is still the preferred option.
But Yvo de Boer, who ran UN climate talks until 2010, says that delay is preferable to "messing it up"..................continues

Cancelling it altogether would be a better idea, think of all the CO2 that would be saved.

Diderot

7,487 posts

194 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
Diderot said:
kerplunk said:
Diderot said:
kerplunk said:
Diderot said:
kerplunk said:
turbobloke said:

The deliberate act of ignoring solar eruptivity while claiming solar irradiance "isn't enough" (leaving room for man to insert a CO2 effect) has been going on for decades.
Indeed, that's because some people need to see an established physical mechanism, not just putative wiggle-matching, which hasn't produced much in terms of successful predictions.
I take it you're talking about models KP.
Yes physics-based models vs extrapolation from wiggle-matching models. The latter can't be used in the former.
Physics based models? laugh You're a wag sir.
Are we back to the 'abject failure' and 'hopelessly wrong' thing again Mr goldfish? laugh

Whatever, physics-based vs physics-free wiggle-matching sums up the situation, and it's quite apparent which is producing the best results.



What was that song by Go West? Ah yes, the King of Wishful Thinking. You just need to admit once and for all models have, are and will always be wrong.
You're tilting at windmills

Self evidently, if the models were perfect there wouldn't be such a range in climate sensitivity to CO2 forcing

The saying is; all models are wrong - some are useful

(not sure if physics-free wiggle matching can be included in that 'some are useful' though)
Self-evidently there should only need to be one model. Instead we have all manner of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey-blindfolded tomfoolery. Empirical data matters, and to be sure no such thing ever plops out of the arse of a model.

robinessex

11,107 posts

183 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
US envoy John Kerry woos China over climate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-567...

US envoy John Kerry is heading to Shanghai to woo China in advance of a climate summit President Joe Biden is hosting next week.
After a major diplomatic row at the UN, both sides hope to co-operate over plans to drastically cut emissions.
The US wants China to cease building coal-fired power stations and to stop financing coal ventures abroad.
China wants the US to give more cash to developing countries to obtain clean technology and adapt to climate change.
It also wants Washington to announce deep cuts in emissions.
Speaking to CNN, Mr Kerry said China's co-operation was "absolutely critical" to battle the climate crisis.
"Yes, we have big disagreements with China on some key issues, absolutely. But climate has to stand alone."....................continues

Probably be lots of Chinese head nodding, bowing, hands held for prayers, and they'll still do their own thing.

Kawasicki

13,142 posts

237 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
robinessex said:
US envoy John Kerry woos China over climate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-567...

US envoy John Kerry is heading to Shanghai to woo China in advance of a climate summit President Joe Biden is hosting next week.
After a major diplomatic row at the UN, both sides hope to co-operate over plans to drastically cut emissions.
The US wants China to cease building coal-fired power stations and to stop financing coal ventures abroad.
China wants the US to give more cash to developing countries to obtain clean technology and adapt to climate change.
It also wants Washington to announce deep cuts in emissions.
Speaking to CNN, Mr Kerry said China's co-operation was "absolutely critical" to battle the climate crisis.
"Yes, we have big disagreements with China on some key issues, absolutely. But climate has to stand alone."....................continues

Probably be lots of Chinese head nodding, bowing, hands held for prayers, and they'll still do their own thing.
New hydroelectric dam to be built that is 3 times (!) the size of the 3 Gorges dam.... in Tibet.

CO2 should be reduced from China, F the locals, F the local environment.

PRTVR

7,178 posts

223 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears

Diderot

7,487 posts

194 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears
I think he meant, the first adjustment of the data. smile

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

257 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
physics-free wiggle matching
Not come across that before, is it the same as the ones developed by Mann and Jones?

kerplunk

7,142 posts

208 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Diderot said:
Empirical data matters
Yes, and physics, and models, and making testable predictions - the scientific process

turbobloke

104,624 posts

262 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Models are inadequate. Politicians won't be told however, so policy based on them will continue to head off in an unhelpful direction. McKitrick and Christy showed in their Earth & Space Science (2018) paper that the difference between empirical data and agw climate model gigo is significant such that the agw null hypothesis must be rejected "the major hypothesis in contemporary climate models...is incorrect". Tax gas can remain on holiday.


John Kerry, whose role is said to be Climate Envoy - possibly a step up from a local authority climate change manager, both public sector with both titles being risible - is going to try some hot air on the Chinese.

He'll have interesting times and might come back with a piece of paper to wave at BBC correspondents.

kerplunk

7,142 posts

208 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears
I double checked it with my watch and it was defo 10 seconds (ish)

kerplunk

7,142 posts

208 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
McKitrick and Christy showed in their Earth & Space Science (2018) paper that the difference between empirical data and agw climate model gigo is significant
...for a layer of the atmosphere 8-12kms above the tropics based on weather balloon data.

The models must be doing ok if that's all you can come up with.


Edited by kerplunk on Wednesday 14th April 13:56

Diderot

7,487 posts

194 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears
I double checked it with my watch and it was defo 10 seconds (ish)
I paraphrase: satellites provide greater coverage than land-based thermometers. Is that what you're referring to?

kerplunk

7,142 posts

208 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Diderot said:
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears
I double checked it with my watch and it was defo 10 seconds (ish)
I paraphrase: satellites provide greater coverage than land-based thermometers. Is that what you're referring to?
Missed the crucial word - surface. Satellite IR sensors don't 'see' down to the surface very well and there is no satellite dataset for surface temp.



Diderot

7,487 posts

194 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
Diderot said:
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
Time to first falsehood - 10 seconds laugh
And your proof ?
I am all ears ears
I double checked it with my watch and it was defo 10 seconds (ish)
I paraphrase: satellites provide greater coverage than land-based thermometers. Is that what you're referring to?
Missed the crucial word - surface. Satellite IR sensors don't 'see' down to the surface very well and there is no satellite dataset for surface temp.
Well he actually says the following: '... satellites are by far the most accurate way to measure the temperature of the earth, this is largely because satellites provide much better coverage of the Earth's surface than ground-based thermometers.'

I guess one's reading of this depends upon whether one considers the surface of the Earth to include the Oceans (which of course make up 2/3rds of the surface. Beyond this, in terms of coverage (and given the systematic reduction in the number of weather stations in recent decades and the lack of measurements in remote areas) I think his point is a good one. My problem with it is that I find it difficult to listen to his drawling voice for more than 10 seconds; it sends me to sleep.

Bathroom_Security

3,359 posts

119 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Always enjoy this thread

Interesting comments about the little ice age in previous posts, some passage straight from Wikipedia re. population decrease and subsequently re-forestation being the cause of the little ice age

The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.[102] In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century.

William Ruddiman proposed that these large population reductions in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East caused a decrease in agricultural activity. Ruddiman suggests reforestation took place, allowing more carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere, which may have been a factor in the cooling noted during the Little Ice Age. Ruddiman further hypothesized that a reduced population in the Americas after European contact in the 16th century could have had a similar effect.[105][106] Other researchers supported depopulation in the Americas as a factor, asserting that humans had cleared considerable amounts of forest to support agriculture in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans brought on a population collapse.[107][108] Richard Nevle, Robert Dull and colleagues further suggested that not only anthropogenic forest clearance played a role in reducing the amount of carbon sequestered in Neotropical forests, but that human-set fires played a central role in reducing biomass in Amazonian and Central American forests before the arrival of Europeans and the concomitant spread of diseases during the Columbian exchange.[109][110][111] Dull and Nevle calculated that reforestation in the tropical biomes of the Americas alone from 1500 to 1650 accounted for net carbon sequestration of 2-5 Pg.[110] Brierley conjectured that European arrival in the Americas caused mass deaths from epidemic disease, which caused much abandonment of farmland, which caused much return of forest, which sequestered greater levels of carbon dioxide.[12] A study of sediment cores and soil samples further suggests that carbon dioxide uptake via reforestation in the Americas could have contributed to the Little Ice Age.[112] The depopulation is linked to a drop in carbon dioxide levels observed at Law Dome, Antarctica.[107] A 2011 study by the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology asserts that the mongol invasions and conquests, which lasted almost two centuries, contributed to global cooling by depopulating vast regions and allowing for the return of carbon absorbing forest over cultivated land.[113]

Kawasicki

13,142 posts

237 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Not sure whether to post this here or in the climate science thread? scratchchin

The planet is burning. It’s time for journalism to recognize that the climate emergency is here. This is a statement of science, not politics.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/1...


robinessex

11,107 posts

183 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Not sure whether to post this here or in the climate science thread? scratchchin

The planet is burning. It’s time for journalism to recognize that the climate emergency is here. This is a statement of science, not politics.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/1...
Ignore it, the Guardian is barmy.
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