The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

[turbobloke]

Greg66 said:

I did (for anyone interested, google "ftse 250" and select the one year graph). The Feb 16 level was the nadir of a slump that started in Dec 15 - a six week period with a rally in the middle. Most of 2015 had been spent oscillating either side of 17000.

The current drop has taken two weeks (with a rally, of sorts), and the point is that the current drop is attributable to a self-inflicted cause.

There are various advantageous long-term positions that begin with equally various levels of short-term adversity, at all levels from individual life choices (medical treatments) to individual financial choices (starging a business) to national and supranational choices (brexit).

Focusing on the short-term suggests a desire to project a particular view, making hay while the sun is behind a cloud, which is fair enough - but it's a narrow view which ignores the wider context of future self-inflicted gains.

[Elysium]

don4l said:

Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

I have seen this table kicking around and it is utterly stupid.

Pre referendum the BOE and CBI rightly issued warnings that they considered the UK economy would be more stable in Europe.

Now that we have a leave vote, they are issuing positively worded statements to confirm that the potential economic impacts of leaving are under control. They are reassuring the market, which is exactly the right course of action.

It is absurd to suggest that they are saying the economy is fine:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul...

It is much to early to make a call regarding the depth of the economic shockwave that we are facing or the rate at which our economy will recover when our position stabilises.

[Sam All]

Greg66 said:

I did (for anyone interested, google "ftse 250" and select the one year graph). The Feb 16 level was the nadir of a slump that started in Dec 15 - a six week period with a rally in the middle. Most of 2015 had been spent oscillating either side of 17000.

The current drop has taken two weeks (with a rally, of sorts), and the point is that the current drop is attributable to a self-inflicted cause.

If you do not expect a rally for the ftse 250, you can always short it.

Clue - markets go up, markets go down.

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

There are various advantageous long-term positions that begin with equally various levels of short-term adversity

The polar opposite of this statement is also true. So where does either statement get you? The future is unknowable. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. We have to live in the present to get to it though. I don't think anyone disagrees with that either.

turbobloke said:

but it's a narrow view which ignores the hope wider context of future self-inflicted gains.

I think that may be a little more accurate.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 6th July 11:15

[markh1973]

turbobloke said:

markh1973 said:

And if Don4l would rather be more accurate:

- level on 23 June: 17333
- level at 10.25am today: 15540

therefore a fall of 10.34%.

- level on 11 Feb: 15178

That was lower than today but there was no wailing at the time.

A fair point - what is indisputable however is that not all of the changes since 23 June on Don4l's original post are true.

[minimoog]

turbobloke said:

Was that 'EU leaders have suggested' in the same way Schauble suggested certain things because Osborne asked him to?

Now then what was it exactly that Schauble said at George's behest? Ah yes: "Out means Out. "An 'out' vote cannot and will not be used as leverage to get a better deal. If the UK votes in, the deal begins immediately. If it votes out, then the exit process begins."

Or in other words:

turbobloke said:

this is for keeps not just for Christmas.

So what exactly are you banging on about again?

[turbobloke]

Sam All said:

Greg66 said:

I did (for anyone interested, google "ftse 250" and select the one year graph). The Feb 16 level was the nadir of a slump that started in Dec 15 - a six week period with a rally in the middle. Most of 2015 had been spent oscillating either side of 17000.

The current drop has taken two weeks (with a rally, of sorts), and the point is that the current drop is attributable to a self-inflicted cause.

If you do not expect a rally for the ftse 250, you can always short it.

Clue - markets go up, markets go down.

Quite apart from the lower FTSE 250 position in early 2016 what on earth is the fuss about, sulky remainians are protesting too muxh. Who in their right mind, sitting on impacted FTSE 250 shares would immediately crystallise a purely paper loss by selling up...nobody, there are too many hair shirts around. As you point out, and as the FTSE 100 has demonstrated, markets go up to what ought to be described as self-inflicted gains.

[turbobloke]

minimoog said:

turbobloke said:

Was that 'EU leaders have suggested' in the same way Schauble suggested certain things because Osborne asked him to?

Now then what was it exactly that Schauble said at George's behest? Ah yes: "Out means Out. "An 'out' vote cannot and will not be used as leverage to get a better deal. If the UK votes in, the deal begins immediately. If it votes out, then the exit process begins."

Or in other words:

turbobloke said:

this is for keeps not just for Christmas.

So what exactly are you banging on about again?

Your inaccuracies and errors, nothing new there.

Your first error is one of omission, there was a mealy-mouthed lack of acknowledgement that Osborne did indeed request the intervention from Schauble.

Secondly in your own banging on, there was another ooops moment where you forgot that by citing an 'out means out' generalisation, the false detail of Schauble's claimn was omitted leading to innacuracy.

You conveniently left out the headlines:

No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says.

Which is of course total hooey rehardless of Osborn's error of judgement as there is a possibility of access to the single market outside the EU, it exists right now.

Finally if you don't know whether the additional nonsense was requested by Cameron or Osborne just say so rather than forget it and try to move the game on with some 'nothing to see here' punt.

You seem to be enjoying Brexit, sap rising and all that. good for you.

[minimoog]

turbobloke said:

Your inaccuracies and errors, nothing new there.

Your first error is one of omission, there was a mealy-mouthed lack of acknowledgement that Osborne did indeed request the intervention from Schauble.

Lack of acknowledgement by me? No. I said Osborne requested it. So what are you talking about?

turbobloke said:

Secondly in your own banging on, there was another ooops moment where you forgot that by citing an 'out means out' generalisation, the false detail of Schauble's claimn was omitted leading to innacuracy.

You conveniently left out the headlines:

No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says.

Which is of course total hooey rehardless of Osborn's error of judgement as there is a possibility of access to the single market outside the EU, it exists right now.

What he said was that there would be no access to the single market unless UK abides by rules the Leave campaign were broadcasting as central to its objections - free movement of people, financial contributions, etc. Leave have since laughably backtracked wholesale on this position in a panic lest they are in fact shut out.

turbobloke said:

You seem to be enjoying Brexit, sap rising and all that. good for you.

You don't do irony do you?

[turbobloke]

minimoog said:

You don't do irony do you?

Sure, requests are a speciality.

Currently making another cup of tea

[FiF]

Jockman said:

There is a thread about the Tory Leadership which contains numerous references to her position.

Fair enough, not seen that thread, too many threads basically.

[Robertj21a]

el stovey said:

As it looks like Teresa may is a massive favourite to be the next PM, do people really think Brexit will even happen?

Imagine you become PM and you're firmly against leaving and nobody around you in government wants to leave, people in your most important industries like financial services are against leaving. There is no plan for Brexit whatsoever and its architects have vanished after unexpectedly winning. Are you really going to take the UK out of the EU. Of course you won't, you'll do what you think is best for the country.

On the leave side there is a small majority of the population, some of which just wanted to stick their fingers up at the establishment, some regret their decision, feeling they were lied to.

There is no effective opposition to hold the government accountable (they wanted to remain anyway) and the media aparently also sitting with you in the remain camp. There is no widespread appetite for leaving or optimism towards Brexit whatsoever. I don't think it will happen or what does happen will not resemble what anyone thought Brexit actual meant.

I have no idea where you get your views from, they're certainly not shared by people I speak to. The same goes for your supposed 'facts'.

Are you just trying to continue a bit of scaremongering because Remainers have nothing else to say - and won't join in with those who are now looking forward to the future ?

[Jockman]

FiF said:

Jockman said:

There is a thread about the Tory Leadership which contains numerous references to her position.

Fair enough, not seen that thread, too many threads basically.

Agreed.

[andymadmak]

Robertj21a said:

el stovey said:

As it looks like Teresa may is a massive favourite to be the next PM, do people really think Brexit will even happen?

Imagine you become PM and you're firmly against leaving and nobody around you in government wants to leave, people in your most important industries like financial services are against leaving. There is no plan for Brexit whatsoever and its architects have vanished after unexpectedly winning. Are you really going to take the UK out of the EU. Of course you won't, you'll do what you think is best for the country.

On the leave side there is a small majority of the population, some of which just wanted to stick their fingers up at the establishment, some regret their decision, feeling they were lied to.

There is no effective opposition to hold the government accountable (they wanted to remain anyway) and the media aparently also sitting with you in the remain camp. There is no widespread appetite for leaving or optimism towards Brexit whatsoever. I don't think it will happen or what does happen will not resemble what anyone thought Brexit actual meant.

I have no idea where you get your views from, they're certainly not shared by people I speak to. The same goes for your supposed 'facts'.

Are you just trying to continue a bit of scaremongering because Remainers have nothing else to say - and won't join in with those who are now looking forward to the future ?

I agree with you Robert. El Stovey, I can honestly say that the only people I have seen flapping and frothing about exit are one or two Remainers who seem to be utterly baffled by the result of the referendum, so sure were they that everyone in the country secretly loved the EU. I suppose it's that "bubble" thing that so many people live in, surrounded by their virtual friends on Facebook and Twitter, all of whom seem to echo each others view points. It makes it very hard for those people to even acknowledge that there might be another, equally valid opinion out there.


I'll say this though. Two years is a very long time in politics. It is not unthinkable that, within that time frame, the EU could decide to reform itself to an extent that the UK might be persuaded to stay. The trouble with that line of thinking is that, if anything, the current mutterings from certain parts of EU hierarchy is that far from responding to Brexit with a desire to reform, they will instead press for an accelerated, even closer union of EU states. If THAT is what manifests over the next two years then the UK will definitely leave, and the British Government will have no choice but to accept the will of the people.

The caveats I would add in here are as follows:

1. If the UK takes an absolute shoeing in international markets over the next 12 months then support for Brexit may decline enough to justify calls for a second referendum
2. If the UK thrives in the next 12 months then it could well be that no amount of EU reform will stop Brexit
3. If the EU refuses to reform now, and this were to trigger exit votes in Holland, Austria, France (any one of them would do) then the EU will have to face up to a "reform or die" future.

One thing is for certain, whatever the future holds, it will NEVER return to the status quo ante 23rd June.

[jjlynn27]

boxxob said:

yes, but to use the sterling 'plunge' headline grabbing format: it hasn't been this low since February 2016...

ergh..doesn't quite have the same impact.

Lowest for 31 years? Yes, I'd call that plunge, (and 1.28 now )

[anonymous-user]

Greg66 said:

Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot....

Not really. It's exactly where it was 18 months ago and still substantially higher than it was prior to that. Exactly the same can be said of the dax and the s&p. The sky is hardly falling in. Not yet anyway.

[Northern Munkee]

Italian Banks on the brink. PM in danger. FIve Star gaining ground.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/investing/banks-it...

[grumbledoak]

And it won't only be Italy.

[smn159]

Northern Munkee said:

FIve Star gaining ground.

[barryrs]

Northern Munkee said:

Italian Banks on the brink. PM in danger. FIve Star gaining ground.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/investing/banks-it...

This was mentioned as a potential reason why Cameron appeared to rush to referendum so the fallout was after an expected remain result. Apparently it was deemed tinfoil hat thinking.