How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

[Sway]

SeeFive said:

Are you ok for provisions? Do you have anyone local to help? If you don’t, I think I am fairly local to you (me Pompey, you Chichester way I believe) so can help if you need anything.

Cheers bud (and all others offering support!).

We're good - I'd braved a shopping trip a couple of days before.

We've got pet food being delivered to the doorstep by a neighbour.

Fortunately, we've got a garden that's south facing (and needing loads dug out, keeping my exercise up!). The boychild is smashing through his homework, and getting a few hours a day on various YouTube channels dancing/exercising/etc. (and I get to see Oti Mabuse routinely - win!)

Bloody tumble dryer died yesterday too - sod's law!

[Murph7355]

stongle said:

If anyone is following the EU crisis response (I think its highly relevent to BREXIT deal outcomes), yesterday was pretty inconclusive. As suspected, Merkel and Rutte will not (at present) back coronabonds or mutualisation of EU debt. It was a pretty obvious fault line, and prompted an exasperated Macron to accuse them of putting the EU project at risk.....

This little struggle will be key to the direction everything in the EU takes IMO, and always has been.

I suspect one of the reasons the Germans and the Dutch quite liked having us around is that they could rely on us to give the whole fiscal union thing (and related topics) a big fat FRO. So they had a "bad guy" (before any of the usual suspects accuse me of thinking the EU hate us, I'm not using it literally) in the corner who they could quietly not disagree with.

I think Germany will have some serious political issues if it agrees with mutualisation of EU debt. The Right in Germany are waiting for excuses, and seemingly getting stronger. Something like that could tip things much harder that way (I get that Farage is a bogeyman to some on here, but he proves that you don't necessarily have to be a serious threat in the structure of government to prompt huge change). Same with the Dutch. Neither country (nor, frankly, anyone else) will/should want that to happen. But equally I don't see what options the EU has other than two, and never have. (1) Fiscal union (2) unwind the project.

Can kicking is great, and the EU are masters of it. But at some point this *always* runs out of road. Something like Coronavirus *could* be the thing that makes the road end. Then again...as masters of the can, it could simply be used as an excuse to further break the rules they created and just keep sticking heads in the sand (compounding all the ills thus far created).

I've asked before, but am still not sure what external factors could prompt an end to the can kicking - I guess seriously weighty third parties (US, China? Or maybe a supplier of key natural resources?) calling them on it would be key. But then they're also not in the best of health at the moment either.

Fascinating viewing regardless.

[London424]

And just to add to the above here’s a twitter link outlining what’s been going on at EUCO

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/124352605...

Rock and a hard place comes to mind.

[Digga]

London424 said:

And just to add to the above here’s a twitter link outlining what’s been going on at EUCO

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/124352605...

Rock and a hard place comes to mind.

fk!

Twitter said:

Netherlands is leading the push back, with Germany behind. “I cannot imagine any circumstances in which we agree with eurobonds or coronabonds, it goes against the design of the euro,” said Rutte, the Dutch PM

[stongle]

The last 3 posts are in line with my thinking. With Conte refusing any strings on the bailout, I struggle to see any way forward that doesnt involve an economic crash in Italy or massive rise in populism in Germany. Additionally any Italian crash, fuels it's own populist movement.

If they rely on the ECB to go bigger than bazookas, they are in uncharted waters. It's going to have pretty negative impacts on its banking sector (nationalisation?), and they are going to run out of stuff to buy.

I wonder how this will play out. I think economic recovery should be the main ambition, above rhetoric. I think we are more likely to look for a deal than the EC can deliver one. A prior whisper of a German - UK friendship deal; may get some traction. How much of a side deal (economically) will be interesting. If other EU states start busting euro and commission budget limits, the Germans may say fk it. Tensions between Paris and Berlin will be cooling. I think Macron's ambitions may take a dent as the Nordic block will be intransigent.

[Helicopter123]

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

[crankedup]

stongle said:

The last 3 posts are in line with my thinking. With Conte refusing any strings on the bailout, I struggle to see any way forward that doesnt involve an economic crash in Italy or massive rise in populism in Germany. Additionally any Italian crash, fuels it's own populist movement.

If they rely on the ECB to go bigger than bazookas, they are in uncharted waters. It's going to have pretty negative impacts on its banking sector (nationalisation?), and they are going to run out of stuff to buy.

I wonder how this will play out. I think economic recovery should be the main ambition, above rhetoric. I think we are more likely to look for a deal than the EC can deliver one. A prior whisper of a German - UK friendship deal; may get some traction. How much of a side deal (economically) will be interesting. If other EU states start busting euro and commission budget limits, the Germans may say fk it. Tensions between Paris and Berlin will be cooling. I think Macron's ambitions may take a dent as the Nordic block will be intransigent.

As always some thought provoking comments which I find interesting and generally in agreement with. Brussels and Luxembourg HQ would be better turned into a temporary hospitals, flippant remark perhaps but sums up my true underlying thoughts.

[Murph7355]

stongle said:

The last 3 posts are in line with my thinking. With Conte refusing any strings on the bailout, I struggle to see any way forward that doesnt involve an economic crash in Italy or massive rise in populism in Germany. Additionally any Italian crash, fuels it's own populist movement.

If they rely on the ECB to go bigger than bazookas, they are in uncharted waters. It's going to have pretty negative impacts on its banking sector (nationalisation?), and they are going to run out of stuff to buy.

I wonder how this will play out. I think economic recovery should be the main ambition, above rhetoric. I think we are more likely to look for a deal than the EC can deliver one. A prior whisper of a German - UK friendship deal; may get some traction. How much of a side deal (economically) will be interesting. If other EU states start busting euro and commission budget limits, the Germans may say fk it. Tensions between Paris and Berlin will be cooling. I think Macron's ambitions may take a dent as the Nordic block will be intransigent.

Macron wants to write cheques he is incapable of cashing himself. The Northern states will surely tell him to foxtrot oscar.

What would a Germany-UK friendship deal look like?

The EU's whole strategy on us leaving worked beautifully when it looked like they had us on the ropes under the May/Robbins stupidity, but had started to unravel when Johnson got the majority he did (thanks to all the dicking about on both sides) and has only been made far worse now due to Covid19. (Those feckin numpties pissing their pants about Brexit being the be all and end all of anything economics wise and carping on about how worse off we'd be due to Brexit as if nothing else geopolitically and macro economically mattered, ought to be reviewing their now no doubt bright pink visages in the mirror. Hopefully Tenor aren't in as short supply as bog roll).

Maybe the only one with bucket loads to lose in dialling back the rhetoric on a deal would be Macron (and Barnier maybe, but he was always expendable). I could see the key other net contributors being fine with reeling it in (is that what you mean by a German<>UK friendship deal?), but he seems to have his cock on the block for das projekt - I wonder if his electorate genuinely feel the same way. The net recipients quite probably need to be told to suck it up (though I strongly suspect a lot, probably all, of them would be up for softening of approach too).

So, Macron aside, I don't think a sensible deal is necessarily impossible? Question is, are the rest ready to tell him to pipe down? And would the EC framework listen to the member states and decide that the political objectives are outweighed by the current predicament?

[Murph7355]

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Do you practice making yourself look an absolute nobber or does it come naturally? If it needs practice I bet you and everyone you know are glad you're having to self isolate right now.

[Garibaldi_red]

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

The referendum was nearly 4 years ago, shouldn't you have moved on by now?

[crankedup]

Murph7355 said:

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Do you practice making yourself look an absolute nobber or does it come naturally? If it needs practice I bet you and everyone you know are glad you're having to self isolate right now.

I certainly needed a laugh and your comment did the trick, sad that it is as true as it is funny though.

[andymadmak]

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

You just can't help yourself can you?

[stongle]

Murph7355 said:

Macron wants to write cheques he is incapable of cashing himself. The Northern states will surely tell him to foxtrot oscar.

What would a Germany-UK friendship deal look like?

The EU's whole strategy on us leaving worked beautifully when it looked like they had us on the ropes under the May/Robbins stupidity, but had started to unravel when Johnson got the majority he did (thanks to all the dicking about on both sides) and has only been made far worse now due to Covid19. (Those feckin numpties pissing their pants about Brexit being the be all and end all of anything economics wise and carping on about how worse off we'd be due to Brexit as if nothing else geopolitically and macro economically mattered, ought to be reviewing their now no doubt bright pink visages in the mirror. Hopefully Tenor aren't in as short supply as bog roll).

Maybe the only one with bucket loads to lose in dialling back the rhetoric on a deal would be Macron (and Barnier maybe, but he was always expendable). I could see the key other net contributors being fine with reeling it in (is that what you mean by a German<>UK friendship deal?), but he seems to have his cock on the block for das projekt - I wonder if his electorate genuinely feel the same way. The net recipients quite probably need to be told to suck it up (though I strongly suspect a lot, probably all, of them would be up for softening of approach too).

So, Macron aside, I don't think a sensible deal is necessarily impossible? Question is, are the rest ready to tell him to pipe down? And would the EC framework listen to the member states and decide that the political objectives are outweighed by the current predicament?

The UK & Germany friendship deal was something dreamt up in Germany. I think there was genuine concern on a hard BREXIT driving a wedge between closely politically and economically aligned allies. As you mentioned previously we could be perceived as the EU bogeyman, but the Germans and Dutch would be in the same boat.

What it would like, not sure. I think they wanted to test EU boundaries; but it may come to nought. However, if states like Italy are going to HAVE to break budget rules, its arguable that trade friction is as much an priority in Germany and why not bend / break trade rules.

The action by the EC to prevent outside EU takeovers may have the immediate effect of staving off Chinese vultures, but longer term they are in a pickle as they are printing there way out of st. Certainly the banks are going to be in the st and needing support. Banking Union is a fantasy now, unlikely anyone has the capital to do it. Rather than allow rest of world in, they are going to have to nationalise them OR let them fail....

I dont see these Corona measures going away in the short to medium term; it's going to change the negotiating dynamic. I dont think anyone would expend huge amounts of political capital on a fudge, so it's all or nothing. Macron could be the big loser here, if he doubles down on fishing or FS. If he pushes for a deal, he gets back capital with the Northern bloc.

I see future problems on the issue of state aid post Corona. Vestager already put a fudge in, that any bank led rehypothecation of ECB funds wouldn't be state aid. It's against the sport of the WA. Regardless it was a necessary step. Its going to cause issues.

[s2art]

stongle said:

What it would like, not sure. I think they wanted to test EU boundaries; but it may come to nought. However, if states like Italy are going to HAVE to break budget rules, its arguable that trade friction is as much an priority in Germany and why not bend / break trade rules.

Italy does have to break the rules, but can it do enough? I think it likely that Italy is at the beginning of a doom loop/death spiral economically and that their coronovirus epidemic has pushed them over the edge.

[gooner1]

Murph7355 said:

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Do you practice making yourself look an absolute nobber or does it come naturally? If it needs practice I bet you and everyone you know are glad you're having to self isolate right now.

I blame his lack of exercise.
It's as if he's permanently stuck in his cockpit.

[Digga]

s2art said:

stongle said:

What it would like, not sure. I think they wanted to test EU boundaries; but it may come to nought. However, if states like Italy are going to HAVE to break budget rules, its arguable that trade friction is as much an priority in Germany and why not bend / break trade rules.

Italy does have to break the rules, but can it do enough? I think it likely that Italy is at the beginning of a doom loop/death spiral economically and that their coronovirus epidemic has pushed them over the edge.

It was in desperate times even before the coronavirus. If the EU and ECB do not find a way for Italy to regroup then they have failed not only Italy but the Eurozone. Simple as that.

[rigga]

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Genuine question ..... do you actually try to out do yourself on every post? As continually you come across as a sad individual.

[don'tbesilly]

Murph7355 said:

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Do you practice making yourself look an absolute nobber or does it come naturally? If it needs practice I bet you and everyone you know are glad you're having to self isolate right now.

I think H123 is now the comic turn on the thread. He continues to crack jokes that make him look the fool, whilst everyone knows based on the previous form he's displayed, he's been recognised as one for the last 3+ years, other threads would indicate this is also the case.

Not forgetting, of course, the distasteful posts, the last one being the one removed due to being deemed as offensive as described by the moderators.

[crankedup]

gooner1 said:

Murph7355 said:

Helicopter123 said:

Good job that the NHS has that extra £350m a week then, eh Boris?

Do you practice making yourself look an absolute nobber or does it come naturally? If it needs practice I bet you and everyone you know are glad you're having to self isolate right now.

I blame his lack of exercise.
It's as if he's permanently stuck in his cockpit.

Like perfecting a loop de loop which comes naturally for a ‘high flier’.

[crankedup]

stongle said:

Murph7355 said:

Macron wants to write cheques he is incapable of cashing himself. The Northern states will surely tell him to foxtrot oscar.

What would a Germany-UK friendship deal look like?

The EU's whole strategy on us leaving worked beautifully when it looked like they had us on the ropes under the May/Robbins stupidity, but had started to unravel when Johnson got the majority he did (thanks to all the dicking about on both sides) and has only been made far worse now due to Covid19. (Those feckin numpties pissing their pants about Brexit being the be all and end all of anything economics wise and carping on about how worse off we'd be due to Brexit as if nothing else geopolitically and macro economically mattered, ought to be reviewing their now no doubt bright pink visages in the mirror. Hopefully Tenor aren't in as short supply as bog roll).

Maybe the only one with bucket loads to lose in dialling back the rhetoric on a deal would be Macron (and Barnier maybe, but he was always expendable). I could see the key other net contributors being fine with reeling it in (is that what you mean by a German<>UK friendship deal?), but he seems to have his cock on the block for das projekt - I wonder if his electorate genuinely feel the same way. The net recipients quite probably need to be told to suck it up (though I strongly suspect a lot, probably all, of them would be up for softening of approach too).

So, Macron aside, I don't think a sensible deal is necessarily impossible? Question is, are the rest ready to tell him to pipe down? And would the EC framework listen to the member states and decide that the political objectives are outweighed by the current predicament?

The UK & Germany friendship deal was something dreamt up in Germany. I think there was genuine concern on a hard BREXIT driving a wedge between closely politically and economically aligned allies. As you mentioned previously we could be perceived as the EU bogeyman, but the Germans and Dutch would be in the same boat.

What it would like, not sure. I think they wanted to test EU boundaries; but it may come to nought. However, if states like Italy are going to HAVE to break budget rules, its arguable that trade friction is as much an priority in Germany and why not bend / break trade rules.

The action by the EC to prevent outside EU takeovers may have the immediate effect of staving off Chinese vultures, but longer term they are in a pickle as they are printing there way out of st. Certainly the banks are going to be in the st and needing support. Banking Union is a fantasy now, unlikely anyone has the capital to do it. Rather than allow rest of world in, they are going to have to nationalise them OR let them fail....

I dont see these Corona measures going away in the short to medium term; it's going to change the negotiating dynamic. I dont think anyone would expend huge amounts of political capital on a fudge, so it's all or nothing. Macron could be the big loser here, if he doubles down on fishing or FS. If he pushes for a deal, he gets back capital with the Northern bloc.

I see future problems on the issue of state aid post Corona. Vestager already put a fudge in, that any bank led rehypothecation of ECB funds wouldn't be state aid. It's against the sport of the WA. Regardless it was a necessary step. Its going to cause issues.

He perfect opportunity for a complete reset, or continue on a downward spiral.