CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 9)
Discussion
rsbmw said:
ant1973 said:
If only there was an obvious way of diminishing covid deaths by adjusting lifestyles, that would be a game changer....
This really doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, the majority of people dying with covid are overweight or obese, but equally the majority of adults are overweight or obese so each BMI banding is more or less proportionally represented in deaths. From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Do...
Much of the research implies that obesity is causative as well.
The Spruce Goose said:
Boringvolvodriver said:
I do chuckle and get a bit cross when I pass McDonalds with a long line of cars backing up onto the road and yet gyms are closed.
ds can stuff their faces at takeaways.I'm afraid it is the worst common denominator. You could put arsenic in it and rid the UK of the worst, most anti social and criminal. Okay, you'd poison a huge number of thoroughly decent people who have crap eating habits too, but I sometimes wonder. Moreover, I am fully behind calls to get these places to indelibly mark the cups/boxes/bags with the collecting vehicles registration number.
The Spruce Goose said:
Boringvolvodriver said:
I do chuckle and get a bit cross when I pass McDonalds with a long line of cars backing up onto the road and yet gyms are closed.
ds can stuff their faces at takeaways.
We have loads of AONB's round us, but even a similar length walk across Cannock Chase doesn't really compare. Especially considering Cannock Chase tends to be busier than your average golf course.
rsbmw said:
This really doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, the majority of people dying with covid are overweight or obese, but equally the majority of adults are overweight or obese so each BMI banding is more or less proportionally represented in deaths.
From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
What about people under 40? From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
rsbmw said:
This really doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, the majority of people dying with covid are overweight or obese, but equally the majority of adults are overweight or obese so each BMI banding is more or less proportionally represented in deaths.
From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
What about people under 40? From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4130
rsbmw said:
This really doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, the majority of people dying with covid are overweight or obese, but equally the majority of adults are overweight or obese so each BMI banding is more or less proportionally represented in deaths.
From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
There was a published study that showed that the risk of dying from Covid-19 increased by 90% if obese. From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
rsbmw said:
This really doesn't tell the whole story. Yes, the majority of people dying with covid are overweight or obese, but equally the majority of adults are overweight or obese so each BMI banding is more or less proportionally represented in deaths.
From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
If you look at this study into all cause mortality versus weight:From this (https://files.digital.nhs.uk/9D/4195D5/HSE19-Overweight-obesity-rep.pdf), 80% of men and 70% of women over 65 have a BMI over 25, which is more or less the same percentages as those dying with covid.
If however 70% of adults had a BMI below 25 and still 80% of covid deaths were overweight, it would be far more significant.
The fact is, the data doesn't support that overweight people are dis-proportionally affected. Really, people in the 25-30 BMI range are underrepresented, given they account for ~40-50% of the over 40 adult population, but only 1/3 of deaths.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2213...
it suggests that there is very little increase in risk between BMI of 25 and 30 (graph on page 4 of the pdf). Risk increases more sharply above 30 and also below about 22 (in the middle of the 'normal' range). Lowest risk is around 25 or 26, and risk at 30 is approximately the same as at 23, only marginally above the minimum.
This is very funny:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9253161/A...
One might have hoped that Jess Phillips may have understood that no one was criticising people undergoing chemotherapy.
Basically, any form of dissent from accepted cannon is to be squashed.
This reflects the mess we are in as a society. But most of all, it is funny.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9253161/A...
One might have hoped that Jess Phillips may have understood that no one was criticising people undergoing chemotherapy.
Basically, any form of dissent from accepted cannon is to be squashed.
This reflects the mess we are in as a society. But most of all, it is funny.
Boringvolvodriver said:
danllama said:
I'm far more likely to take the vaccine of my own free will. When I see them blackmailing the public and I, of taking the vaccine for our freedom, I am 100% certain to not take it. I'm not scared of covid, but I fking despise fascism.
I am with you on this - tell me the facts and let me make my own decision - personal responsibility clearly doesn’t feature in many peoples vocabulary these days.king despise fascism.LeighW said:
I wonder if Hancock ever reads the responses to his tweets? Not that he even writes them himself...
Not many positive comments!
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/13599342490...
If his SM team is halfway competent, they will be monitoring the levels of positive vs negative replies, though he wont engage with the actual content.Not many positive comments!
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/13599342490...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Because their draconian quarantine system is half-arsed; they let their bargain basement staff wander in and out carrying infections.Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Well, that and people catching the thing in quarantine and showing positive after they leave.
Graveworm said:
johnboy1975 said:
Certainly. If everyone gets tested for covid when they die, or upon admission to hospital, and 1/3 of all cases are asymptomatic, out of the 110k+ "deaths within 28 days of a positive test" won't 1/3 have not been due to covid at all? I guess your faith is stronger than mine that an asymptomatic case won't make its way onto the death certificate for the ONS measurement. They will certainly be on the PHE measurement. (IIRC the ONS measurement is higher, whereas you'd expect c40k to drop off?)
TBH My first post still makes sense to me, so hopefully I've clarified rather than repeated myself.
If 1/3rd are asymptomatic that is 1/3rd of those infected, not 1/3rd of those in hospital not 1/3rd of those being tested and not 1/3rd of those dying within 28 days of positive test. Of those admitted to hospital for anything other than Covid or who didn't die from Covid then it's going to be the same as community prevalence i.e. currently 1.25% will test positive. TBH My first post still makes sense to me, so hopefully I've clarified rather than repeated myself.
16-20% of hospital infections are acquired in hospital but that is a small number in terms of the overall numbers of infections. Few of them will die from covid, but few of them will die with covid either as most people in hospital, for all causes including Covid, don't die.
But the circa 600 daily HAIs could go to anyone, including those in poor health already, or at end of life. Symptomatic covid could play a part in ending those lives a few weeks early. Asymptomatic covid could play no part whatever, but still end up on the PHE figures. And plenty of instances where Asymptomatic covid has been listed on the death certificate for the ONS figures
Deaths from HAI is data that the government seem reluctant to release
But yeah, it's probably not on the scale I was thinking last night
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
They describe the uk strain as hyper-infectious.Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
It all goes to prove that zero covid is nigh on impossible to achieve unless you shut off from everything forever.
soofsayer said:
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
They describe the uk strain as hyper-infectious.Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
It all goes to prove that zero covid is nigh on impossible to achieve unless you shut off from everything forever.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
soofsayer said:
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/am...
Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
They describe the uk strain as hyper-infectious.Melbourne back into lockdown.
To prevent the spread of an outbreak of the UK strain....
Now I thought Oz basically weren't allowing people in or out unless you spent along time and a lot of money in quarantine.
Yet...the virus is there and circulating from all the way over here? What am I missing?
Also, reading that report, the Aussie government are even more hysterical than we are.
It all goes to prove that zero covid is nigh on impossible to achieve unless you shut off from everything forever.
Not for any serious reason, just chants of "COVID's going home" might be quite amusing and alleviate the LD boredom.
The Spruce Goose said:
I used to go to the gym 4-5 times a week, i struggle in the cold outside, but last year my fitness has dropped massively. I honestly don't get how gyms closed but fat bds can stuff their faces at takeaways.
It’s another one of those perplexing covid contradictions Sprucey. I have wondered what the general reaction would be if they closed all fast food outlets as part of the overall restrictions, would we see a change in the public mood? ds can stuff their faces at takeaways.Maybe all the lockdown sceptics would be better advised to campaign for the closure of take aways.
CAH706 said:
One of the particularly negligent parts of our response to all this has been the lack of pushing people to drop some chub and get fit
Eat out to help out and shut gyms etc.....terrible
We we are an unhealthy country at the best of time but this situation is making things worse.... not a popular message calling out people for being overweight though
Hear hear!Eat out to help out and shut gyms etc.....terrible
We we are an unhealthy country at the best of time but this situation is making things worse.... not a popular message calling out people for being overweight though
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