UK Retail Outlook 2025

[Tom8]

Is 2025 the final curtain for uk retail;

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/high-street-...

Ever more overheads to carry in business rates and now employers' NI, does it stand a chance? Most high street names have been killed off already so should wrap up the final few quite soon.

[Gecko1978]

I went to both the potteries center in stoke and the harlequin in Watford over Xmas an weekend before Howard center in wgc. So a wide range of shopping centers and one thing I noticed was small volume of shoppers and many closed units.

There is not much that is going to change this.

[bitchstewie]

I think it goes way beyond business costs and is more fundamental.

I can't think of a single thing outside of toiletries that I use my local town centre for.

Every high street looks the same and the choice just isn't there.

[Wills2]

We will get the high streets we deserve, consumer behaviour is hollowing out our towns and cities with a qtr of retail sales going online.

[Jamescrs]

I've seen reports blaming Labour and the incoming tax increases but ultimately the rot set in long ago on town centre retail and many reasons have been given including Amazon, Local councils, etc. It's probably a combination of them all.

There's a couple of big buildings in Leeds that have or will be pulled down and redeveloped into residential student accommodation, for those in the know I'm looking at The Core and the old House of Fraser building. I do find it surprising though the way apartments are constantly being built around the city centre, maybe i'm missing something but I can't imagine there's enough people to occupy them all.

[NerveAgent]

UK retail seems to have been in decline for a long time. Politics, lockdown and working from home have just sped up the process.

I think part of the problem is that nobody really knows what the future looks like for say a medium sized, average income town/city. They tend not to have the urban population to support a localised economy and I cant see that much of the retail is sustainable for much longer.

[ChevronB19]

Gecko1978 said:

I went to both the potteries center in stoke and the harlequin in Watford over Xmas an weekend before Howard center in wgc. So a wide range of shopping centers and one thing I noticed was small volume of shoppers and many closed units.

There is not much that is going to change this.

What did you buy?

[chrispmartha]

Gecko1978 said:

I went to both the potteries center in stoke and the harlequin in Watford over Xmas an weekend before Howard center in wgc. So a wide range of shopping centers and one thing I noticed was small volume of shoppers and many closed units.

There is not much that is going to change this.

I went to Chesire Oaks on Monday took me an hour to park. It was rammed.

However high streets have been on the decline for years, and a lot of those that moan about it will be the same people buying stuff off Amazon

[Gecko1978]

ChevronB19 said:

Gecko1978 said:

I went to both the potteries center in stoke and the harlequin in Watford over Xmas an weekend before Howard center in wgc. So a wide range of shopping centers and one thing I noticed was small volume of shoppers and many closed units.

There is not much that is going to change this.

What did you buy?

In Stoke stuff for my mum a scarf an some local made candles.

I'm Watford my teenage dgtr went to superdry

Wgc I can't recall I think something from boots

[Xenoous]

They're closing the Grafton in Cambridge in favour of laboratories... So... Yeah. I'd say 2025 is going to be pretty grim.

Online shopping is what's killed the high street. Stop ordering from Amazon!

[Truckosaurus]

Xenoous said:

...
Online shopping is what's killed the high street. ...

Plus large Tesco (etc) which sell everything, are open in the evenings and have free parking.

[CraigyMc]

Xenoous said:

They're closing the Grafton in Cambridge in favour of laboratories... So... Yeah. I'd say 2025 is going to be pretty grim.

Online shopping is what's killed the high street. Stop ordering from Amazon!

Or change the tax system to make physical shopping preferable. Amazon pay sod all in terms of business retail rates. Create policy that says something like "for every X in revenue, Y business rates apply for the virtual shop".

I'd still shop at amazon even if it was more expensive (indeed, it often is) purely for the convenience factor.

I think the supermarkets that do timed home delivery are completely missing the opportunity to use that timed delivery factor against amazon. Maybe they'll get it one day (Morrisons aside who actually have a business relationship with Amazon already).

[OutInTheShed]

Xenoous said:

They're closing the Grafton in Cambridge in favour of laboratories... So... Yeah. I'd say 2025 is going to be pretty grim.

Online shopping is what's killed the high street. Stop ordering from Amazon!

High streets are mostly a waste of space, they have been getting steadily crappier since the big supermarkets got their act together in the 80s.
Most of the shops have little role in mass-market retail any more.
You can blame Amazon if it suits you, but High Street retail was getting hammered by mail order and out-of-town before Amazon ever started.

Bricks and mortter retail needs to focus on what it's good at. That's occasional shopping for things you want to look at and choose, not competing with ebay Amazon and various other online sellers.

While the high streets are disappearing into their own depression, people are spending their money at places they choose to visit which are more convenient. Our local shopping street has lost business to corner shops and farm shops. Places that are accessible and lower rent.

I'd be quite happy for 2/3 of the national retail chains to go bust. They're just inefficient overheads.

[Xenoous]

It's a good point regarding supermarkets, and while being part of the problem, they won't be the biggest culprit. The high street as it is now is just full of chain café's/coffee shops, vape shops and tech repair shops. Seeing these disappear isn't exactly a shame.

[grumbledoak]

It's just the same trend accelerating. Lockdown and increased working from home are finishing off what local councils and government started decades ago.

Could anything be done? Technically yes of course. But nothing palatable to the powers that be. They will wring their hands for show, but in reality this is what they want. It is the result of decades of policy. Policy does not happen by accident. It is constantly replaced and refined to give the desired result.

What is that desired result? Will we like it? are better questions.

[Gecko1978]

grumbledoak said:

It's just the same trend accelerating. Lockdown and increased working from home are finishing off what local councils and government started decades ago.

Could anything be done? Technically yes of course. But nothing palatable to the powers that be. They will wring their hands for show, but in reality this is what they want. It is the result of decades of policy. Policy does not happen by accident. It is constantly replaced and refined to give the desired result.

What is that desired result? Will we like it? are better questions.

I don't think it was a plan as such. Most tax does not seek to alter behaviour rather it hopes you will carry on but pay more. Well now their is an alternative so people use it (online). This means less congested towns, less pollution etc. Government did not really want that but they have got it because instead of going to town we literally don't bother at all.

[Muzzer79]

The death knell for the high street has been ringing for ages

The fact that shopping centres still charge for parking says everything about their blinkered attitude.

It'll all be coffee shops, barbers and charity shops before much longer. In some places, it already is.

[grumbledoak]

Gecko1978 said:

I don't think it was a plan as such. Most tax does not seek to alter behaviour rather it hopes you will carry on but pay more. Well now their is an alternative so people use it (online). This means less congested towns, less pollution etc. Government did not really want that but they have got it because instead of going to town we literally don't bother at all.

Policy is not set in stone. It is constantly reviewed. If it is giving the wrong results they change it. Even if it means a 180 and some shameless weaseling about how they were still somehow right all along.

So yes, if something is still happening after a few decades you can be pretty sure that was the intention.

[Drumroll]

Xenoous said:

They're closing the Grafton in Cambridge in favour of laboratories... So... Yeah. I'd say 2025 is going to be pretty grim.

Online shopping is what's killed the high street. Stop ordering from Amazon!

That horse has bolted and is now in the next country.

Amazon is actually an interesting one. Most of what is sold (on Amazon) is not made by Amazon, so companies are using amazon to sell their products. I know a couple of small companies that sell on Amazon, their margin isn't much different, by the time you take into account Amazon take care of all the packaging and posting out. If something gets lost, then Amazon sort it out. As opposed to them sending something out and someone claiming they haven't received it and all the hassle and the hit to your companies reputation. Also They say Amazon is a lot better to deal with than Etsy.

[survivalist]

Current shoppers abandoning the high street certainly a problem, but the death knell for the high street is generational.

My children were 5 and 2 in 2020 and up until then we’d always made an effort to take them shopping for toys and books etc

The various lockdowns and restrictions meant that they got introduced to online retail much earlier. I’ve taken them to toy and book shops since and they’ve both commented on the limited range and inconvenience (we had to drive there). They’ll still go to the bookshop in town, but there’s no desire ro go shopping in general - when I was 7 I’d jump at a chance to go to the toy shop.

Edited by survivalist on Thursday 2nd January 19:55