German Elections
Discussion
The governing SDP are taking a real hammering. Just 16% of the vote so far. CDU on 28% amd AfD in second place on 20%.
The CDU have already ruled out a coalition with thr AfD, which is going to make it very difficult to form a government.
I don't know a lot about German politics but it's looking like they are going to be very limited on options for forming a government, with The Left being unlikely partners and the FDP (something like the Lib Dems?) projected to get no seats.
If the prediction on Google is correct they're going to have to either join forces with the SDP or the Greens and The Left. Or go back on their posturing and bring in the AfD.
Interesting stuff!
The CDU have already ruled out a coalition with thr AfD, which is going to make it very difficult to form a government.
I don't know a lot about German politics but it's looking like they are going to be very limited on options for forming a government, with The Left being unlikely partners and the FDP (something like the Lib Dems?) projected to get no seats.
If the prediction on Google is correct they're going to have to either join forces with the SDP or the Greens and The Left. Or go back on their posturing and bring in the AfD.
Interesting stuff!
Christian Lintner, FDP, has just shocked his own party by resigning as leader due to failing to get enough votes to enter parliament. Particularly bitter result for the FDP, as they were responsible for bringing down the coalition and triggering the election.
Very long faces at the SDP, after losing so much of their vote. Olaf Scholz just not attractive to the voters. I can imagine Scholz stepping down now.
Die Linke are absolutely elated after coming back from the dead, after a faction lead by Sara Wagenkneckt split off to form their own party(BSW).
BSW might reach the 5% vote threshold required to enter parliament, but at time of writing, don't quite have the numbers, but very very close.
AfD get 20% of vote, so a big sigh of relief that they didn't pick up any more votes after the latest terror attacks. Fingers crossed that these Neo-naziis have plateaued now, with their support base limited to low achieving East German persecution complex scapegoaters.
Greens treading water, which isn't too bad in the circumstances.
CDU/CSU now have to find some coalition partners who are prepared to work together.
Very long faces at the SDP, after losing so much of their vote. Olaf Scholz just not attractive to the voters. I can imagine Scholz stepping down now.
Die Linke are absolutely elated after coming back from the dead, after a faction lead by Sara Wagenkneckt split off to form their own party(BSW).
BSW might reach the 5% vote threshold required to enter parliament, but at time of writing, don't quite have the numbers, but very very close.
AfD get 20% of vote, so a big sigh of relief that they didn't pick up any more votes after the latest terror attacks. Fingers crossed that these Neo-naziis have plateaued now, with their support base limited to low achieving East German persecution complex scapegoaters.
Greens treading water, which isn't too bad in the circumstances.
CDU/CSU now have to find some coalition partners who are prepared to work together.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
nuyorican said:
Golly, that sounds familiar. Brexit, Trump election... 
I think we are going to hear a lot more of this sort of thing around this election and a few others haha OutInTheShed said:
Interesting thing is high turnout.
This isn't like apathetic Britain not bothering to vote tory.
I've seen figures of over 80% which seems incredible to me. I can't think of any other election anywhere that's gotten within a mile of that, not that I pay much attention to these things. This isn't like apathetic Britain not bothering to vote tory.
Interesting that the Russians didn't get any more of the vote after their American/ Russian brethren weighed in.
I hope the new chancellor is rather more forthcoming in throwing weight around than the predecessor.
He has already compared America's interference in his election to Russia's.
Edited by bloomen on Sunday 23 February 23:48
Interesting stat here - https://x.com/tvorreyer/status/1893801445071221220
In the 35-44 age group the AfD got the most votes.
In the 35-44 age group the AfD got the most votes.
I think Germany is now in serious trouble. Over 10,000 jobs a month being lost to insolvencies/redundancies/relocations abroad. It’s deindustrialisation on a massive scale.
The political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
The political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
bloomen said:
Interesting stat here - https://x.com/tvorreyer/status/1893801445071221220
In the 35-44 age group the AfD got the most votes.
My 45 yr old son will be voting for our newest and very creatively named "Trumpet of Patriots Party" funded by one of our mining billionairesIn the 35-44 age group the AfD got the most votes.
Palmer accidentally called the party "Trumpet Of Parrots" in a news conference
Guardian said:
Above the smiling faces were the words “Trumpet of Patriots” and a golden lion blowing a golden horn; the name and logo of Palmer’s latest political party.
Donald Trump may not feature on the branding but Palmer’s new mission is shaped entirely in the image of the new US president.
“Trumpet of Patriots will make Australia great again,” the billionaire declared from behind a lectern.
Palmer said he wanted to import Trump’s agenda to Australia, vowing to drain the Canberra “swamp”, adopt an Elon Musk-inspired assault on government “waste” and ban transgender athletes from women’s sports.
Donald Trump may not feature on the branding but Palmer’s new mission is shaped entirely in the image of the new US president.
“Trumpet of Patriots will make Australia great again,” the billionaire declared from behind a lectern.
Palmer said he wanted to import Trump’s agenda to Australia, vowing to drain the Canberra “swamp”, adopt an Elon Musk-inspired assault on government “waste” and ban transgender athletes from women’s sports.
bloomen said:
What a staggeringly dumb name.
Anyone arriving cold to vote would instantly know they're pricks without needing to research it at all.
Palmer got the sAnyone arriving cold to vote would instantly know they're pricks without needing to research it at all.
ts back in the noughties when his state government refused him a mining licence and since then he's been trying to tip the scales in his favour by gaining balance of power.Last federal election he spent $80M and finished up with one powerless senate seat.
In the end of the day it reaches a point where people just want a change. This can be with unhappiness with established political parties or just a change for the change if it.
There has been a change to the right in recent times because people want a change. Same in UK with Reform. If you look in most western countries there has been a change to a more right ideology. The reasons are many but if the status quo was working then the change would not be happening…. Maybe it’s time to look at the last 20-30 years and think why, in general, these movements are taking hold.
I think we got distracted, took things for granted and didn’t listen to the people, probably a bit deafened by ideology/arrogance of I know better… I don’t know but something isn’t working.
There has been a change to the right in recent times because people want a change. Same in UK with Reform. If you look in most western countries there has been a change to a more right ideology. The reasons are many but if the status quo was working then the change would not be happening…. Maybe it’s time to look at the last 20-30 years and think why, in general, these movements are taking hold.
I think we got distracted, took things for granted and didn’t listen to the people, probably a bit deafened by ideology/arrogance of I know better… I don’t know but something isn’t working.
Andrew Neil’s summary seems about right to me:
“As the mist clears from last nights German election results we can now see the following:
1. The CDU/CSU can form a coalition with the SPD to produce a government with a small working majority: 329 seats in a Bundestag in which you need 316 for a majority.
2. The Greens therefore not likely to be needed and go into opposition.
3. But the ‘official’ opposition will be the AfD with 151 seats.
4. If it’s to be a CDU/CSU- SPD coalition then perhaps it can be formed relatively quickly. Even then not before Easter. And given the policy differences it could take longer, leaving Germany rudderless at a time of geopolitical crisis and economic decline.
5. It is ironic that the biggest loser of the night — SPD — gets to stay in government. A quirk of PR voting system much loved by UK chattering classes. It will inhibit the new government from introducing the radical reforms Germany needs.
6. Meanwhile the AfD sits in opposition ready to capitalise should it all go wrong.”
Personally it gives me little faith in proportional representation to actually produce a functioning, representative government.
“As the mist clears from last nights German election results we can now see the following:
1. The CDU/CSU can form a coalition with the SPD to produce a government with a small working majority: 329 seats in a Bundestag in which you need 316 for a majority.
2. The Greens therefore not likely to be needed and go into opposition.
3. But the ‘official’ opposition will be the AfD with 151 seats.
4. If it’s to be a CDU/CSU- SPD coalition then perhaps it can be formed relatively quickly. Even then not before Easter. And given the policy differences it could take longer, leaving Germany rudderless at a time of geopolitical crisis and economic decline.
5. It is ironic that the biggest loser of the night — SPD — gets to stay in government. A quirk of PR voting system much loved by UK chattering classes. It will inhibit the new government from introducing the radical reforms Germany needs.
6. Meanwhile the AfD sits in opposition ready to capitalise should it all go wrong.”
Personally it gives me little faith in proportional representation to actually produce a functioning, representative government.
Edited by chemistry on Monday 24th February 06:50
Kawasicki said:
I think Germany is now in serious trouble. Over 10,000 jobs a month being lost to insolvencies/redundancies/relocations abroad. It’s deindustrialisation on a massive scale.
The political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
YesThe political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
Fractured politics as the party most responsible for both the economic malaise and mass immigration is the one now presenting itself as the solution to both issues.
The CDU also ruling out coalition with the only party that might support a different approach and any other possible coalition party just wants more of the same.
Germany is heading down the same path as France.
chemistry said:
Andrew Neil’s summary seems about right to me:
Personally it gives me little faith in proportional representation to actually produce a functioning, representative government.
Speaking as someone who actually voted in the German election yesterday I can tell you that the German election system is a hybrid of half first past the post and half proportional representation. At the ballot box you get two votes, as the Bundestag (630 seats, down from 733 for admin reasons I don't fully understand) is basically divided in two. Your first vote is for your constituency and whoever gets the most votes there wins the seat. Your second vote is for a party and that goes into a national tally where proportional representation decides how many of the other half of the seats go to which party. The various parties basically have a list of candidates that are not standing for a specific constituency and they can pick from them.Personally it gives me little faith in proportional representation to actually produce a functioning, representative government.
I guess most people vote twice for the same party but I suppose there could be a situation where you really like your local MP but not their overall party.
Edited by RedWhiteMonkey on Monday 24th February 07:15
CrgT16 said:
In the end of the day it reaches a point where people just want a change. This can be with unhappiness with established political parties or just a change for the change if it.
There has been a change to the right in recent times because people want a change. Same in UK with Reform. If you look in most western countries there has been a change to a more right ideology. The reasons are many but if the status quo was working then the change would not be happening…. Maybe it’s time to look at the last 20-30 years and think why, in general, these movements are taking hold.
I think we got distracted, took things for granted and didn’t listen to the people, probably a bit deafened by ideology/arrogance of I know better… I don’t know but something isn’t working.
Not sure there has been change to a "more right ideology" myself. If you go back to the 1990s, which is the decade I started following what was going on in politics, then parties like the Conservatives here and CDU in Germany were unapologetically Centre-Right. Similarly at the same time parties of the centre-left were more grounded in working class communities and still had strong appeal there. There has been a change to the right in recent times because people want a change. Same in UK with Reform. If you look in most western countries there has been a change to a more right ideology. The reasons are many but if the status quo was working then the change would not be happening…. Maybe it’s time to look at the last 20-30 years and think why, in general, these movements are taking hold.
I think we got distracted, took things for granted and didn’t listen to the people, probably a bit deafened by ideology/arrogance of I know better… I don’t know but something isn’t working.
They both then decided that they were going to move in a more globalist direction and many of their voters didn't follow. Add in the various economic factors on top of that and it creates a different electoral landscape and one starting to resemble a pressure cooker.
JagLover said:
Kawasicki said:
I think Germany is now in serious trouble. Over 10,000 jobs a month being lost to insolvencies/redundancies/relocations abroad. It’s deindustrialisation on a massive scale.
The political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
YesThe political will isn’t there to make the necessary changes to stop or reverse this. It’s like many people are blind as to what funds the government and its ever more expensive social support system.
There may be trouble ahead.
Fractured politics as the party most responsible for both the economic malaise and mass immigration is the one now presenting itself as the solution to both issues.
The CDU also ruling out coalition with the only party that might support a different approach and any other possible coalition party just wants more of the same.
Germany is heading down the same path as France.
Rearrange the deck chairs and just carry on exactly as before regardless of how pissed off the electorate are with what's going on
RedwhiteMonkey - interesting to hear a local pipe up, can ask whereabouts are you?
In the Munich thread on here, I’ve posted about visiting Berlin a cpl of weeks ago on biz and the atmosphere of the locals. The high end engineering company I was visiting, their management was absolutely livid about what was happening in Germany, not just migration but the damage being done to the economic solidity of Germany, the stuff they considered the foundations of German life.
What’s it like around your way?
In the Munich thread on here, I’ve posted about visiting Berlin a cpl of weeks ago on biz and the atmosphere of the locals. The high end engineering company I was visiting, their management was absolutely livid about what was happening in Germany, not just migration but the damage being done to the economic solidity of Germany, the stuff they considered the foundations of German life.
What’s it like around your way?
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