Official Eastleigh By-election thread
Discussion
So...
The sensible decision for the coalition would be for the Tories to not contest it in support of their coalition partners. Basically a repeat of the 1918 election pact, if that is the right word between Lloyd George and Bonar Law. It's the only sane option.
Cameron just hasn't the authority to do this, neither has Clegg. The activists in both parties are just itching for a full on, claws out, blood, fur and feathers, snot and claret everywhere street fight.
Who will it cost? The coalition cannot survive this, that is my proposition. If correct that will then be the end of Cameron or Clegg. Not sure which.
I don't believe in a sufficient upset to do for both of them, but could be wrong. UKIP may have sufficient potential for a real upset, but imho I think they don't have the legs, maybe that should be not have the legs... yet. Don't know tbh.
Certainly it's rumoured the Downing Street SpAds are getting the briefing dossiers out on rumoured LibDem candidates, apparently lips are being licked at the revenge against Olly Grender, one such named potential candidate.
The sensible decision for the coalition would be for the Tories to not contest it in support of their coalition partners. Basically a repeat of the 1918 election pact, if that is the right word between Lloyd George and Bonar Law. It's the only sane option.
Cameron just hasn't the authority to do this, neither has Clegg. The activists in both parties are just itching for a full on, claws out, blood, fur and feathers, snot and claret everywhere street fight.
Who will it cost? The coalition cannot survive this, that is my proposition. If correct that will then be the end of Cameron or Clegg. Not sure which.
I don't believe in a sufficient upset to do for both of them, but could be wrong. UKIP may have sufficient potential for a real upset, but imho I think they don't have the legs, maybe that should be not have the legs... yet. Don't know tbh.
Certainly it's rumoured the Downing Street SpAds are getting the briefing dossiers out on rumoured LibDem candidates, apparently lips are being licked at the revenge against Olly Grender, one such named potential candidate.
Caulkhead said:
Bizarre post. There is no reason for the tories to not stand and whoever wins it will not result in the end of someone. Coalitions all over the world stand against their partners in by elections.
More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
Tories see this as their heartland, only lost it after Stephen Milligan's bizarre death at the time of extreme unpopularity of John Major's Govt, so they will want a candidate. See above posts. If they fail Dave could be on thin ice. Maybe not.More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
If Lib Dems lose it after holding the seat for so many years, and with decent results in local elections, then it will be Clegg on thin ice.
More reasoned than wishful thinking. Sorry - you fail.
Caulkhead said:
FiF said:
Caulkhead said:
Bizarre post. There is no reason for the tories to not stand and whoever wins it will not result in the end of someone. Coalitions all over the world stand against their partners in by elections.
More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
Tories see this as their heartland, only lost it after Stephen Milligan's bizarre death at the time of extreme unpopularity of John Major's Govt, so they will want a candidate. See above posts. If they fail Dave could be on thin ice. Maybe not.More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
If Lib Dems lose it after holding the seat for so many years, and with decent results in local elections, then it will be Clegg on thin ice.
More reasoned than wishful thinking. Sorry - you fail.
Caulkhead said:
FiF said:
Caulkhead said:
FiF said:
Caulkhead said:
Bizarre post. There is no reason for the tories to not stand and whoever wins it will not result in the end of someone. Coalitions all over the world stand against their partners in by elections.
More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
Tories see this as their heartland, only lost it after Stephen Milligan's bizarre death at the time of extreme unpopularity of John Major's Govt, so they will want a candidate. See above posts. If they fail Dave could be on thin ice. Maybe not.More wishful thinking than reasoned argument from you I'm afraid.
If Lib Dems lose it after holding the seat for so many years, and with decent results in local elections, then it will be Clegg on thin ice.
More reasoned than wishful thinking. Sorry - you fail.
LostBMW said:
Thanks for that link!@caulkhead
See you on the Westfield viaduct. Can't remember last time on that map. Months ago now, must be.Derek Smith said:
Farage has bottled it, and possibly for good reason. He would have been up against a right wing tory and the libdem voters are unlikely to move to the UKIP. Labour might get a bit of a boost from this.
Difficult one to call.
Whilst I wouldn't describe Farage's position as bottling it, it's nevertheless the right decision. Agree with the rest too.Difficult one to call.
btw Norman Tebbit has had a bit of a go at O'Farrell today.
The muppet wrote in his book that it was a shame that Maggie left her bathroom two minutes earlier when the Brighton bomb went off. Tebbit has asked O'Farrell if his disappointment was eased by the injuries that Mrs Tebbit incurred in the same bombing.
The muppet wrote in his book that it was a shame that Maggie left her bathroom two minutes earlier when the Brighton bomb went off. Tebbit has asked O'Farrell if his disappointment was eased by the injuries that Mrs Tebbit incurred in the same bombing.
Gwagon111 said:
I'm going to vote for the National Health Action Party. All the mainstream party candidates suck.
This is the reincarnation of the party founded by Dr Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest. With the shambles at Stafford and elsewhere they will be a destination for many protest votes that cannot bring themselves to UKIP.
It's a fair point ^^
UKIP took votes from all areas, including people who had not voted for 20 years. Whether they have the resource and finances to do that in a GE is questionable, but then that is simply a question of finance and resources, solvable, albeit not easily without wealthy backers. I'm not sure where they will come from.
The questions about policy and reality of government are valid, but then the last lot didn't have the first clue, listening to the Labour woman on QT last night they still don't. However looking at their stumbling disasters I'm not sure the current set of schoolkids in government are much better, different things they don't have a clue over but the general accusation of cluelessness still stands.
Re the point about not being able to get laid in a brothel. Actually it's Cameron who couldn't get his leg over. He couldn't win an election with the widest open own goal when facing the disaster that was Labour and the Clown. He couldn't even come second in a by-election in what used to be a safe Tory seat until the sitting MP died in a sex game gone wrong. I don't count the other two by elections as in those seats they'd vote a dead pig in if it had a red rosette.
Cameron has been the worst thing for the country and the Tory party. He has to go. Unfortunately it looks like it will not be before next election so unless something very strange happens expect Milliband as the next in a line of Wrong PMs.
Another thing that this by election will cause is focus every candidate's attention on the postal vote. This can only be a bad thing for democracy, totally open to corruption as has been seen time and again by all parties of all colours. When the chips are down, cheat. Not good.
UKIP took votes from all areas, including people who had not voted for 20 years. Whether they have the resource and finances to do that in a GE is questionable, but then that is simply a question of finance and resources, solvable, albeit not easily without wealthy backers. I'm not sure where they will come from.
The questions about policy and reality of government are valid, but then the last lot didn't have the first clue, listening to the Labour woman on QT last night they still don't. However looking at their stumbling disasters I'm not sure the current set of schoolkids in government are much better, different things they don't have a clue over but the general accusation of cluelessness still stands.
Re the point about not being able to get laid in a brothel. Actually it's Cameron who couldn't get his leg over. He couldn't win an election with the widest open own goal when facing the disaster that was Labour and the Clown. He couldn't even come second in a by-election in what used to be a safe Tory seat until the sitting MP died in a sex game gone wrong. I don't count the other two by elections as in those seats they'd vote a dead pig in if it had a red rosette.
Cameron has been the worst thing for the country and the Tory party. He has to go. Unfortunately it looks like it will not be before next election so unless something very strange happens expect Milliband as the next in a line of Wrong PMs.
Another thing that this by election will cause is focus every candidate's attention on the postal vote. This can only be a bad thing for democracy, totally open to corruption as has been seen time and again by all parties of all colours. When the chips are down, cheat. Not good.
I've always liked a Norman Tebbit post election summing up.
Lord Tebbit said:
Eastleigh by-election: if you kick your core voters hard enough, Mr Cameron, they might kick back
The Eastleigh by-election was bound to have some bad news for the Tories, whatever happened. Even had they taken the seat from the Lib Dems, which would have been a triumph for David Cameron, the Lib Dems would have put the blame on Clegg and the anti-coalitionists might well have forced him out of the leadership with the strong probability that the coalition would have collapsed.
In fact, that was never on the cards. The Lib Dems were deeply dug in and well organised in Eastleigh, whereas the Tory grassroots had shrivelled in the climate of contempt in which they are regarded by the Tory leadership.
However, to be pushed into third place behind the party of nutcases, fruit cakes and closet racists, as David Cameron ill-advisedly described its supporters, is a humiliating defeat. Even worse for him, it has again increased the credibility of Ukip ahead of this year's local elections and next years European election. There was a real sting in the throwaway line of Neil Farage, who blamed the result onto the Conservatives for splitting the anti-Lib Dem vote.
As for poor Ed Miliband, the result must raise the question of why with the coalition in so many problems, Labour performed so poorly. I would like to believe that the choice of the revolting O'Farrell turned off a lot of decent potential Labour voters, but it may also be that even many Labour voters regard a vote for Ukip as the best way to kick the Coalition.
Even with a good turnout of 53 per cent for a by-election, it would be unwise to predict the outcome of a general election two years hence. All we can say at the moment is that the prospects of the three main parties look somewhat dim, but there is a good deal of water to go under the bridge before polling day. Perhaps the most obvious lesson for Mr. Cameron is that if a party leader kicks his own supporters often enough they will kick back, and for Mr. Miliband that a leader has to spell out where he is going and how he proposes to get there in order to persuade voters to follow him. As for Nick Clegg, it is time he understood that it is always hard to ride two horses at once, but harder still if they are going in different directions.
All in all, a pretty bad night for the establishment politicians but a testimony to the stability of the English electors. Think who might have won a similar contest in Italy or Greece.
linkThe Eastleigh by-election was bound to have some bad news for the Tories, whatever happened. Even had they taken the seat from the Lib Dems, which would have been a triumph for David Cameron, the Lib Dems would have put the blame on Clegg and the anti-coalitionists might well have forced him out of the leadership with the strong probability that the coalition would have collapsed.
In fact, that was never on the cards. The Lib Dems were deeply dug in and well organised in Eastleigh, whereas the Tory grassroots had shrivelled in the climate of contempt in which they are regarded by the Tory leadership.
However, to be pushed into third place behind the party of nutcases, fruit cakes and closet racists, as David Cameron ill-advisedly described its supporters, is a humiliating defeat. Even worse for him, it has again increased the credibility of Ukip ahead of this year's local elections and next years European election. There was a real sting in the throwaway line of Neil Farage, who blamed the result onto the Conservatives for splitting the anti-Lib Dem vote.
As for poor Ed Miliband, the result must raise the question of why with the coalition in so many problems, Labour performed so poorly. I would like to believe that the choice of the revolting O'Farrell turned off a lot of decent potential Labour voters, but it may also be that even many Labour voters regard a vote for Ukip as the best way to kick the Coalition.
Even with a good turnout of 53 per cent for a by-election, it would be unwise to predict the outcome of a general election two years hence. All we can say at the moment is that the prospects of the three main parties look somewhat dim, but there is a good deal of water to go under the bridge before polling day. Perhaps the most obvious lesson for Mr. Cameron is that if a party leader kicks his own supporters often enough they will kick back, and for Mr. Miliband that a leader has to spell out where he is going and how he proposes to get there in order to persuade voters to follow him. As for Nick Clegg, it is time he understood that it is always hard to ride two horses at once, but harder still if they are going in different directions.
All in all, a pretty bad night for the establishment politicians but a testimony to the stability of the English electors. Think who might have won a similar contest in Italy or Greece.
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