Global depression?

[Digga]

Whilst the UK economy gives the appearance of health right now, it's not hard to avoid the negative news; Euroland, China, Russia, even the USA is moribund at best, let alone other smaller economies like Australia (the next Greece?).

Just thinking about this again because of this piece:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/forget-re...

I do wonder whether there's going to have to be QE all round, or even some sort of debt jubilee.

[Digga]

None of the Chinese yet make the big mining kit, IMHO it is this which is hitting CAT hardest; significantly lower volumes on significantly large-budget items. Reading the article, it's more about how the buyback (lease) obligations are at odds with the share price, but it did bring me back to the theme of the OP that I've been pondering for a while.

The post is not so much about that article or CAT, as the reasons behind those stats.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

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^This, and the 'ghost cities' etc. etc.

anonymous said:

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I'm afraid that's my concern too.

anonymous said:

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JCB make nothing 'big' in terms of mining. Biggest excavator is 50 tonnes which, in UK bulk-earthmoving might be considered reasonably large, but in mining it's like a knife at a gunfight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMZeNUn_DEw

I think even the likes of Komatsu and Hitachi are seeing a slowdown.

I enjoy debate and discussion, but I'm not sure where DJRC gets his optimism; would genuinely like to know.

[Digga]

5ohmustang said:

Here in the U.S. the general attitude is that the hard times are over.


We are experiencing a false recovery, riding a wave of stimulus that has kept the global economy on life support.


Sooner or later the sheeple will wake up.

Global economic collapse is coming.

Good article on how the greenback is trading at 10yr highs: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/peter-sch...

Tends to support what you're saying.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The Tescos of the plant hire industry. I have no evidence to back up my hunch, but (like Speedy plc recently) I would not be at all surprised if the real problems weren't cleverly buried in a Machiavellian web of rebates and discounts.

[Digga]

JagLover said:

In terms of the situation in China

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11756...

Globally, this is critical.

Not least in economic terms, but also politically; IMHO there is far more risk here than with Russia.

[Digga]

fido said:

Wondering what's the best indirect trade to make - short oil or global equities.

Short on Lange Lovers.

[Digga]

fido said:

Digga said:

Short on Lange Lovers.

Funny you should say that. I was in HK a few weeks ago, and the really swanky hotels (not the £200 per night motels I stay in) were surrounded by the Chelsea Tractors. You do get the feeling it's like Ireland in the mid 2000s.

JLR is now owned and run by Blingdians; the ethos and gameplan is based now on a broken model, namely, cars for wealthy BRICS residents. None of those markets will continue as they were in the last 10 years and, shifting focus, they've wrecked what class and cachet the marques had in the UK. All IMHO.

Defender is gone. Full-fat Range Rover is too big and bloated for real, everyday British use. UK dealerships have morphed into pink-n-chrome poof's palaces.

[Digga]

In the 90s, the Koreans also had a further problem in that the Chaebols were cross-guaranteeing one another's debts - a defacto shadow banking system.

[Digga]

phil1979 said:

Digga said:

None of the Chinese yet make the big mining kit, IMHO it is this which is hitting CAT hardest

They do, and the likes of Rio Tinto have been running them for a few years:

http://www.theajmonline.com.au/mining_news/news/20...

Hauling, but not digging. Yet...

[Digga]

RobinBanks said:

All the other points in that are open to debate, but plenty of people manage to go to work and do their shopping and take their children to school and do everything else that people might do day to day in a Range Rover.

A long time ago, I had a 4.6 P38 Vogue. In that, you could get into and out of it in any city-centre multi-storey. There is no way you can do this with the later models with any degree of ease.