October 2009 property bet

[NoelWatson]

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

[NoelWatson]

Blib said:

jazzybee said:

I fear your bet maybe at risk. Its not about which way the property market is going, but your betting based on the prices reported by Halifax. Who knows if the Halifax makes it through the next year? The Lloyds bid is looking a little wobbly. Wouldn't a more independent index be more appropriate?

May I suggest that if the Halifax index is no longer available this time next year, both should send £250 to the Poppy Appeal?

I am happy to take a wager with you as to whether the Halifax index will still be here in a year's time

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

[NoelWatson]

Pugsey said:

Ho hum................

Cheers N.

It's actually not as bad as it looks. Halifax insist on dicking about with the seasonally adusted data. Non seasonally adjusted it only fell around 0.4%

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

April 2009 -1.7% Average price £154,716

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...

[NoelWatson]

Pugsey said:

Were's me cheque book?

Don't give up yet!

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

April 2009 -1.7% Average price £154,716

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...

May 2009 +++++2.6% Average price £158,565

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

April 2009 -1.7% Average price £154,716

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...

May 2009 +++++2.6% Average price £158,565

June 2009 -0.5% Average price £157,713

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

April 2009 -1.7% Average price £154,716

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...

May 2009 +++++2.6% Average price £158,565

June 2009 -0.5% Average price £157,713

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

July 2009 +1.1% Average price £159,623

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

[NoelWatson]

Asterix said:

We're in the process of buying in the UK as we speak. We're looking long term investment though - minimum 10yrs and we'll probably never live in the place just let it. Put down 30% and the mortgage works out around 2.4 times our joint income.

That should hopefully work out fine in the long run.

Still be interesting to see how the market developes though. We now there may be a risk that we haven't quite hit the bottom but as we're looking further down the line, it doesn't concern us.

What yield are you getting?

[NoelWatson]

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in a year's time than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax October 2008

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/HousePrice...

with an October 2008 average of £168,176 (this came out on Thursday 6th). When the October 2009 report comes out (should be the same day as the Nov MPC vote - 4th November), if...

a). the average house price is equal to or more than £168,176, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £168,176, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.

I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.

November 2008: -2.6%, average price £163,605

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08Ho...

December 2008 -2.2% Average price £159,896

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/02_01_09Ho...

January 2009 +1.9% Average price £163, 966

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_02_09Ho...

February 2009 -2.3% Average price £160,327

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

March 2009 -1.9% Average price £157,326

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com//media/pdfs/hali...

April 2009 -1.7% Average price £154,716

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...

May 2009 +++++2.6% Average price £158,565

June 2009 -0.5% Average price £157,713

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

July 2009 +1.1% Average price £159,623

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

August 2009 +0.8% Average price £160,973

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halif...

[NoelWatson]

Bing o said:

JagLover said:

ShadownINja said:

Finger in the air, it looks like you might just win but it isn't going to be much. I am surprised, tbh.

Interest rates won't stay at 0.5% for ever.

Good time to sell then?

It depends if you are moving up or down I guess.

[NoelWatson]

Pugsey said:

Thanks Noel. You do realise that come the end of this bet, if the upward trend has continued, I'll 'do a Ponting' and claim that the statistics 'prove' I won really!

We can discuss this over the course of next year's bet!

[NoelWatson]

Bing o said:

NoelWatson said:

Bing o said:

Good time to sell then?

It depends if you are moving up or down I guess.

Up?

If up, how many people have enough of a deposit to get the good rates?

[NoelWatson]

frosted said:

JagLover said:

ShadownINja said:

Finger in the air, it looks like you might just win but it isn't going to be much. I am surprised, tbh.

Interest rates won't stay at 0.5% for ever.

I believe that for a minimum of 9 months rates will stay pretty much the same

Wouldn't be surprised if a lot longer. Upside risks include

VAT back to 17.5%
Oil rising again
The reduction in interest rates (for RPI) removed from trailing 12 months

[NoelWatson]

Pugsey said:

NoelWatson said:

Pugsey said:

Thanks Noel. You do realise that come the end of this bet, if the upward trend has continued, I'll 'do a Ponting' and claim that the statistics 'prove' I won really!

We can discuss this over the course of next year's bet!

But we've got to think of one and I suspect property wise we'll pretty much agree now, plus, I'll be on my tropical island thanks to my RBS,LLOY & BARCS shares and may become a tad disinterested i the 'real' world.

Over the next year I'm pretty neutral on property but will take the bearish side seeing as how it is for good cause. Banking shares will be interesting over next five years.