Crypto Currency Thread (Vol.2)
Discussion
RichTT said:
Scootersp said:
That's an interesting take because I'd say nearly all value does reside in objects/physical things?
Value in non physical things is a very recent addition to the human experience, and does rely on trust/belief/indoctrination and whether fiat or bitcoin or whatever, it is ultimately one day used to buy physical things? (Physical networks support bitcoin and swift/fiat tracking?)
Our entire world runs on the concept of intangible digital money. 92% of all money worldwide is digital. Value in non physical things is a very recent addition to the human experience, and does rely on trust/belief/indoctrination and whether fiat or bitcoin or whatever, it is ultimately one day used to buy physical things? (Physical networks support bitcoin and swift/fiat tracking?)
Whilst bitcoin is limited it was created, is created scarcity a bit of an oxymoron?
Scootersp said:
'Runs on' and 'concept', agreed but that's not to me value. I question the digital value of fiat money as do you and I'm just not sure a different digital is the answer whereas you are on the basis of it being a fixed quantity and secure. Either way my argument is what matters and what you and I value are, leaving aside human emotions/connections, physical things whether free or very expensive in monetary terms.
Whilst bitcoin is limited it was created, is created scarcity a bit of an oxymoron?
Let's look at it in simple terms, scarcity by itself is not what makes Bitcoin valuable or required for others to ascribe financial or other value to it. Whilst bitcoin is limited it was created, is created scarcity a bit of an oxymoron?
It is simply a minimum requirement for a token to be considered a contender as worldwide dominant ubiquitously accepted money.
That the scarcity is fixed at a nominal amount is unimportant, regardless of how that number came to be. It is definable, verifiable, and the entire monetary supply audited every 10 minutes by every participant in the network.
Condi said:
I'm very slightly long, but have far more interest into why it moves and what it's actually for than any returns. It amuses and intrigues me people are willing to invest in an entirely unregulated, unpredictable, and frankly impossible to analyse market, especially when nobody can actually tell me what it's used for, simply because they assume some greater fool will pay more for it later on. At least at the casino you understand the odds, have pretty croupiers, free drinks and a laugh with the other people at the table.
And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
The problem is that you're talking to people who believe that they're smarter investors than Warren Buffett. Just like those who decried Buffett for not jumping on the dot-com bubble back in the late nineties.And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
The question you ask (where is the value - how does it make a return?) has never been, and never will be answered, and for one simple reason. If you recall, I started a post specifically on this one key point in this forum. The crypto bros got it shut down.
I admire your tenacity, and I do like to pop in for a wry smile at this thread from time to time (the person above who compared crypto to housing, that was a laugh out loud moment
). But you're talking to The Believers. They just want to keep the faith, they have no truck with your difficult questions and awkward facts getting in the way of their path to The Land Of Milk & Honey, and its sunlit uplands.
Keep fighting the good (if futile) fight!
Ari said:
Condi said:
And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
The question you ask (where is the value - how does it make a return?) has never been, and never will be answered, and for one simple reason.Bitcoin is a zero sum game in the same sense that everything else is that has become financialised. $1 of inflow to any asset class does not equal $1 out for every market participant. Just as $1 in doesn't equal a $1 increase in market cap, or that $1 out doesn't equal a $1 drop in market cap. Never has, never will. You just refuse to accept that everything else acts this way and that somehow Bitcoin is acting irrationally and is somehow not reacting to the exact same dynamics of every other asset class.
Where is the value? In the physical network of people and ASIC's. How does it make a return? People take their economic value and they put it into the network. The price action is a function of supply and demand based on the current available supply for sale. That available supply fluctuates.
You can have the exact same argument with any other commodity on earth that has physical and futures markets.
Perhaps you should read the George Selgin paper I linked above. Because if a Professor Emeritus of economics understands the value proposition of Bitcoin, and you don't, then I'm going to err on the side of the Prof.
RichTT said:
...
Where is the value? In the physical network of people and ASIC's. How does it make a return? People take their economic value and they put it into the network.
...
Not sure you've entirely nailed that.Where is the value? In the physical network of people and ASIC's. How does it make a return? People take their economic value and they put it into the network.
...
The value in BTC is not the people (nothing has value without people) or the ASICs (you could double the amount of asics without impacting price).
The value is in its nature (which is supported by people and ASICs): it is unique in that it is decentralised, finite, liquid, divisible, indestructible (without destroying everything else of value in the world) and fungible.
NB: It doesn't inherently give a return like a bond or equity share, just as gold doesn't.
In fact gold is a very good comparison to Bitcoin as they share many similarities. People are accustomed to seeing gold jewellery and thinking that's where the value of gold is, in its beauty, but they fail to understand that gold jewellery came about because of the inherent value of gold as a demonstration of wealth, and not the other way around.
Edited by BandOfBrothers on Thursday 9th May 12:27
I think it's fair to say that in the 15 years or so since it's been around Bitcoin hasn't really demonstrated utility for the "man on the street" - if it had we'd all be using it, surely?
But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it.
We don't really have a lot to show for it do we? My impression is that most people with Bitcoin are HODLers or perhaps using it to pay off bribes...
It seems like a terrible waste - the opportunity cost must be phenomenal...
But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it.
We don't really have a lot to show for it do we? My impression is that most people with Bitcoin are HODLers or perhaps using it to pay off bribes...
It seems like a terrible waste - the opportunity cost must be phenomenal...
funinhounslow said:
I think it's fair to say that in the 15 years or so since it's been around Bitcoin hasn't really demonstrated utility for the "man on the street" - if it had we'd all be using it, surely?
But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it.
We don't really have a lot to show for it do we? My impression is that most people with Bitcoin are HODLers or perhaps using it to pay off bribes...
It seems like a terrible waste - the opportunity cost must be phenomenal...
Have you heard of gold mining?But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it.
We don't really have a lot to show for it do we? My impression is that most people with Bitcoin are HODLers or perhaps using it to pay off bribes...
It seems like a terrible waste - the opportunity cost must be phenomenal...
" I think it's fair to say that in the 15 years or so since it's been around Bitcoin hasn't really demonstrated utility for the "man on the street" - if it had we'd all be using it, surely?
But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it. "
and yet gold bugs delight in their stuff:
unknown supply, not much direct utility to the man on the street - barring a steady if weak investment.
I'm sure that it would have taken gold/precious metals/stones as long as BTC has to become widely accepted for whatever properties the buyer perceives.
computers as per your comment had indeed been around umpteen years, but when personal computers came out - what was the utility? bugger all.....apart from geeks who were doing rudeimentary programming trials in the late 70's an atari had more use! fast forward 20 years and things had changed.....
as to energy to mine....many these days are tapping into unused resources, flares, excess hydro etc - probably a damm sight less than the efforts tpo pull more and more precious metals out of the ground.
But in that time Bitcoin must have soaked up vast amounts of resources - energy to mine bitcoin, and capital to purchase it. "
and yet gold bugs delight in their stuff:
unknown supply, not much direct utility to the man on the street - barring a steady if weak investment.
I'm sure that it would have taken gold/precious metals/stones as long as BTC has to become widely accepted for whatever properties the buyer perceives.
computers as per your comment had indeed been around umpteen years, but when personal computers came out - what was the utility? bugger all.....apart from geeks who were doing rudeimentary programming trials in the late 70's an atari had more use! fast forward 20 years and things had changed.....
as to energy to mine....many these days are tapping into unused resources, flares, excess hydro etc - probably a damm sight less than the efforts tpo pull more and more precious metals out of the ground.
greengreenwood7 said:
I'm sure that it would have taken gold/precious metals/stones as long as BTC has to become widely accepted for whatever properties the buyer perceives.
Gold has 'something' else Bitcoin wouldn't have the logo it does. It has history, it's ingrained in us, "Gold star" "Gold medal" etc etc, that it looks like it does and can be found in it's natural state and doesn't alter over time, must have made it a true wonder before the understanding of chemistry and the extraction of other pure metals from ores? Yes you have to extract it and it does largely then just sit there, but that's no different to bitcoin, if people want it to back/be money? The extraction becomes harder over time it's not automatic and so everyone's Gold took roughly the same endeavour to get and it can't be created it has to be found. Because it's been valued for so long, it's ingrained in the system and institutions, perhaps illogical to many but it is and the IMF used to take contributions in Gold and still are one of the largest holders.
Money is control/power/freedom and so the current major possessors of Gold can make and change the rules and it you have an asset and make the rules that asset won't be devalued, they will protect their power?
Perhaps some of the Bitcoin whales are these large institutions who knows, but that would be interesting.
Condi said:
Lol, can you read a chart?!
What about this is guaranteed? You have no idea where Btc is going next, all you're doing is looking at it over a time frame and going "its guaranteed to go up" when it has had several large dips which have resulted in 50%+ reductions in price and have taken years to recover from. If it was guaranteed to go up it wouldn't have this big drops would it? If you bought in 2017 it might have taken 3 years to be in profit, if you bought in 2021 it could have taken 3 years again. I wouldn't consider something which can drop 50%+ in a matter of months and take years to recover "guaranteed to go up" or a "good store of value". What if you need that cash when it's 50% down (which it could do, over the next few months, you have literally no idea)? A good store of value is not volatile, but is predictable, Bitcoin is anything but.
Honestly, if you look at this chart and think it's "guaranteed to go up" and is a "good store of value" then there is little point continuing this discussion.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
? George Orwell, 1984
BTC price is very predictable.What about this is guaranteed? You have no idea where Btc is going next, all you're doing is looking at it over a time frame and going "its guaranteed to go up" when it has had several large dips which have resulted in 50%+ reductions in price and have taken years to recover from. If it was guaranteed to go up it wouldn't have this big drops would it? If you bought in 2017 it might have taken 3 years to be in profit, if you bought in 2021 it could have taken 3 years again. I wouldn't consider something which can drop 50%+ in a matter of months and take years to recover "guaranteed to go up" or a "good store of value". What if you need that cash when it's 50% down (which it could do, over the next few months, you have literally no idea)? A good store of value is not volatile, but is predictable, Bitcoin is anything but.
Honestly, if you look at this chart and think it's "guaranteed to go up" and is a "good store of value" then there is little point continuing this discussion.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
? George Orwell, 1984
It follows a four year cycle giving you returns of about 400% from one cycle ATH to the next.
Smart investments from bottom to ATH can give you 20x returns.
Your chart shows just this.
But hey, don't let facts get in the way of your narrative.
Condi, do me a favour and answer the questions you've been asked numerous times before or please STFU and leave this thread alone because you're becoming very tiresome.
1) You keep claiming that BTC is a bad store of value despite RichTT and me showing you the numbers.
So: tell me, what is your preferred store of value?
Explain why it is better from a technical or conceptual point of vue?
And show me how it outperforms BTC on a longer time frame? Because that is what store of value means: a longer time frame. Short time frames like you're using to prove your point are called speculation.
2) You also keep claiming that governments are going to ban crypto but instead they are approving BTC ETF's, allowing BTC adoption into the traditional financial system.
Please elaborate.
Regards,
Erik
@scooter....
" Gold has 'something' else Bitcoin wouldn't have the logo it does. It has history, it's ingrained in us, "Gold star" "Gold medal" etc etc, that it looks like it does and can be found in it's natural state and doesn't alter over time, must have made it a true wonder before the understanding of chemistry and the extraction of other pure metals from ores? "
you missed the point; I was suggesting to Condi that Gold or any other trading 'asset' wouldn't have suddenly become the defacto standard for stored wealth/currency hundreds of years ago.
No one would have said on first seeing it that it had any material worth, that didn't happen overnight and nor will whatever BTC becomes accepted for by society.
In reality, digital assets and digital projects are and will continue to disrupt 'Trad' - whether folks like that movement or not. Some will kick back, but like it or not, we're in a digital age - and have been for some time and we're not far away from all sorts of unheard of things: cars that drive themselves, robots that are more than just a static machine.
So an 'invisible asset/commodity' isn't that much of a stretch - in the context of the acceleration of 'digital'.
" Gold has 'something' else Bitcoin wouldn't have the logo it does. It has history, it's ingrained in us, "Gold star" "Gold medal" etc etc, that it looks like it does and can be found in it's natural state and doesn't alter over time, must have made it a true wonder before the understanding of chemistry and the extraction of other pure metals from ores? "
you missed the point; I was suggesting to Condi that Gold or any other trading 'asset' wouldn't have suddenly become the defacto standard for stored wealth/currency hundreds of years ago.
No one would have said on first seeing it that it had any material worth, that didn't happen overnight and nor will whatever BTC becomes accepted for by society.
In reality, digital assets and digital projects are and will continue to disrupt 'Trad' - whether folks like that movement or not. Some will kick back, but like it or not, we're in a digital age - and have been for some time and we're not far away from all sorts of unheard of things: cars that drive themselves, robots that are more than just a static machine.
So an 'invisible asset/commodity' isn't that much of a stretch - in the context of the acceleration of 'digital'.
It seems the US regulator and trading platforms can’t even agree on what cryptocurrencies are…
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/robinhood...
Hopefully we’ll get some clarity soon.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/robinhood...
Hopefully we’ll get some clarity soon.
Right, no answers from Condi, mais quelle surprise...
So, now that whe have come to the conclusion that either a) he's just been trolling this thread all the time or b) he really does not have a clue what he's talking about, perhaps those of us really interested in the potential merrits and profits cryptocurrencies have to offer (if there's anyone left on here) can get back to some in depth discussions.
I'll start of with a question: AI coins and meme coins seem to be the narrative of this cycle, outperforming the rest.
Managed some nice profits through direct investment in AI coins and indirect investment in meme coins through SOL.
But what are the projects you're looking at for future crypto investments?
Personally I'm researching BTC layer 2 solutions and modular blockchain applications. Tokenization of real world assets is an interesting concept, but I think it's till too early for this stuff to take off.
Your opinions?
So, now that whe have come to the conclusion that either a) he's just been trolling this thread all the time or b) he really does not have a clue what he's talking about, perhaps those of us really interested in the potential merrits and profits cryptocurrencies have to offer (if there's anyone left on here) can get back to some in depth discussions.
I'll start of with a question: AI coins and meme coins seem to be the narrative of this cycle, outperforming the rest.
Managed some nice profits through direct investment in AI coins and indirect investment in meme coins through SOL.
But what are the projects you're looking at for future crypto investments?
Personally I'm researching BTC layer 2 solutions and modular blockchain applications. Tokenization of real world assets is an interesting concept, but I think it's till too early for this stuff to take off.
Your opinions?
ERIKM400 said:
Right, no answers from Condi, mais quelle surprise...
So, now that whe have come to the conclusion that either a) he's just been trolling this thread all the time or b) he really does not have a clue what he's talking about, perhaps those of us really interested in the potential merrits and profits cryptocurrencies have to offer (if there's anyone left on here) can get back to some in depth discussions.
I'll start of with a question: AI coins and meme coins seem to be the narrative of this cycle, outperforming the rest.
Managed some nice profits through direct investment in AI coins and indirect investment in meme coins through SOL.
But what are the projects you're looking at for future crypto investments?
Personally I'm researching BTC layer 2 solutions and modular blockchain applications. Tokenization of real world assets is an interesting concept, but I think it's till too early for this stuff to take off.
Your opinions?
My opinions? OK then...So, now that whe have come to the conclusion that either a) he's just been trolling this thread all the time or b) he really does not have a clue what he's talking about, perhaps those of us really interested in the potential merrits and profits cryptocurrencies have to offer (if there's anyone left on here) can get back to some in depth discussions.
I'll start of with a question: AI coins and meme coins seem to be the narrative of this cycle, outperforming the rest.
Managed some nice profits through direct investment in AI coins and indirect investment in meme coins through SOL.
But what are the projects you're looking at for future crypto investments?
Personally I'm researching BTC layer 2 solutions and modular blockchain applications. Tokenization of real world assets is an interesting concept, but I think it's till too early for this stuff to take off.
Your opinions?
Anything that isn't Bitcoin is junk.
Many "next big thing"s may well be pumped to the moon, but they will crash back to zero.
Bitcoin is uniquely valuable due to its combination of characteristics and longevity.
Anything that is controlled by an organisation or person, which is all of them, is worthless.
In other news the Tornado Cash lad got sentenced to 64 months in the Netherlands for 'money laundering'.
The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
RichTT said:
In other news the Tornado Cash lad got sentenced to 64 months in the Netherlands for 'money laundering'.
The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
And people wonder why Satoshi disappeared! But yeah even decentralized systems require devs. Opsec is key The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
RichTT said:
In other news the Tornado Cash lad got sentenced to 64 months in the Netherlands for 'money laundering'.
The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
With North Korea and anyone else on a sanctions list using the platform, this is hardly a surprise. If you dick with the hegemony of Western economics and more important Foreign Policy objectives - you are on a hiding to nothing. It doesn't matter what the little people think about democracy and perceived ills / injustices of the current system - you are messing with forces way more powerful than Mickey Mouse regulators.The judge handed down a verdict that claimed that the liability of someone writing code and what other people do with it, lands on them. Which is just as ridiculous as saying a knife maker is liable for someone using it to hurt someone else, or a car manufacturer being liable when a driver runs someone over.
Absolute clown world.
This isn't new or even limited to BTC, anyone dense enough to think they can take on the likes of OFAC and its reach (and what they can pull behind the scenes internationally); is going to lose. OFAC which gets most of its powers from the Trading With the Enemy Act (and then its peace time extension) - basically exists on a permeant war footing - to remove ANY economic threat to US interests. They can paper up anything in the anonymity space as a threat and will act on it. The laws / decrees that created OFACs existence are also those that spawned executive order 6102 (for the gold bugs).
Even the fines they can levy in recent times are disproportionate to offence (ask BNP). It will also be an existential and omnipresent threat to anonymous financial networks always. Its why Crypto will never, ever, ever be allowed to usurp $ (mainly), EUR, £ control. Thinking otherwise and you are on a hiding to nothing.
This is simply "f
k around and find out".Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff