"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

Author
Discussion

TobyTR

1,068 posts

148 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
No, it's an share in an unallocated bar at a custodian, not a paper or derivative product. I am well aware of the difference, although in practical terms if you only want exposure to the gold price you might as well go for the paper since the only difference will be in an edge case scenario where the monetary system breaks down.
That sounds a bit weird/dodgy? What is meant by a share of an unallocated bar at a custodian?

Can you walk in the premises at any time and grab your gold to then sell?

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
TobyTR said:
egomeister said:
No, it's an share in an unallocated bar at a custodian, not a paper or derivative product. I am well aware of the difference, although in practical terms if you only want exposure to the gold price you might as well go for the paper since the only difference will be in an edge case scenario where the monetary system breaks down.
That sounds a bit weird/dodgy? What is meant by a share of an unallocated bar at a custodian?

Can you walk in the premises at any time and grab your gold to then sell?
Literally that: I have a claim for a proportion of a (non-specific) 400oz bar of gold held in a third party vault in London. They buy the larger bars, and vault them all over the world, allowing customers to effectively purchase a proportion of one thus giving you a near direct exposure to gold without the risks of storing it yourself and reduced spreads relative to the spot gold price in comparision to small coins and bars. I think I have the option to withdraw physically in 100g increments but I'm not sure the cost is worth it.

The company I use is: https://www.bullionvault.com/ but there are a bunch of other people who offer similar services. Some will allow you to buy and store coins are bars that are specifically allocated to you (obviously with a cost implication) and I've seen some that have their own vaults cut deep into a Swiss mountain!

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
A44RON, let me preface my next post with a couple of comments. I believe in Gold. I believe in precious metals. I have probably spent more time thinking about this one asset class in the last 4 years than any other. I own physical precious metals, gold stored with a third party and have a good chunk of investments in gold/silver funds & miners.

Do you actually read and digest what I'm writing? I broadly agree with what you are saying, but it feels like your understanding has all the subtlety of a bull in a china shop or a youtube gold salesmen. I'm playing devils advocate with your arguments, trying to engage with them on a deeper, more nuanced level but it's a struggle...


A44RON said:
The capital and the purchasing power of Bonds are from currency, therefore they will both be worth less and less with inflation - https://www.ft.com/content/f98d242c-2bf5-11e7-bc4b...
You are conflating capital and the purchasing power that it allows you to have. In the context of the previous discussion, premium bonds protect your capital but they don't protect your purchasing power and in all likelihood won't give you a return in real terms. However, the only way you will risk your initial investment is with the absolute destruction of the GBP - so in this regard it is safe.

A44RON said:
The FBI has history of confiscating BitCoin - it's digital, it's happened before and it can happen again.
Yes, bitcoin may be confiscatable depending on how it is stored. However, if the bitcoin is in cold storage and the priavte keys are suitably defended please explain how the FBI or anyone else will be able to access them?

A44RON said:
What do you mean by Gold having 'collective value on our collective belief it has value'? Gold's value comes from the fact it's supply is steady, it's durable, doesn't corrode, it's highly fungible and scarce enough that it depends on what can be mined. Gold holds its value while the value of paper currency shrinks over time, so Gold enables you to pass wealth to the next generation over time.
Yes, the limited supply, durability, scarcity etc are good qualities for something by which the value of other things may be measured but this ultimately only works because collectively we agree that these qualities have value. The actual industrial consumption demand for gold is a fraction of the annual production - this is the baseline for it's value, the rest is the collective sentiment we place on it as a society, built up over thousands of years. Something like bitcoin shares these functional qualities, but without the depth and endurance of the collective belief.

A44RON said:
In times of the Roman empire you could buy a high-quality toga and pair of shoes for 1oz of Gold. Today, you can still buy a handmade suit and a high-quality pair of shoes for 1oz of Gold. In the mean time, the value of each paper currency in the history of each country went to zero and the US$ has lost 98% of its inital value.

Consider for yourself, how many US$ exist and how many ounces of Gold there is - look here:

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

read all of these figures (that are in real-time) very carefully. Now look at the current total US M2 'Money' supply: US$17.4 trillion and now look at the Dollar-to-Gold ratio on the far-right column: US$23,703 per oz of Gold. (the year-over-year increase in the M2 'Money' supply divided by the yearly world production of Gold)

Just two weeks ago that ratio was US21,000 per oz of Gold.... so that many more dollars has already been printed....

So, you're all left hoping the US Federal Reserve figures out how to get themselves out of the (huge) mess they are in, otherwise, let me just say kindly, you will realise the true value of Gold and Silver then smile


Currency (paper fiat) and real money (Gold and Silver) are not the same thing. Read up on the history of money. Also research the current confidence of fiat currency right now, because it is at an all-time low.
I understand the risks of debasement to the money we use. That's why I own gold - as a baseline of insurance against the rest of my fiat currency assets. It remains the ultimate defensive asset, even if I don't believe we will see the destruction of any of the major world currencies any time soon (except perhaps the euro). The politics over the next year may get messy, but I don't expect a currency failure or a return to a gold standard as there is simply no reason any politician would choose to do it.

Most of your responses on this thread have been framed by the presumption that fiat currencies will burn. What if they don't?

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
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Joe5y

1,502 posts

185 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
Novexx said:
I've got a bit of hard earned currently sitting in bank accounts & now find myself for the 2nd time in the last decade or so being mildly concerned about the safety of it. I had been looking at some traditional methods of investment recently, but now I'm not so sure.

So lets say that COVID-19 doesn't go away as planned, things get properly tough & banks or GBP start to fail - are any of the traditional investment methods safe from this?

Gold has always had a certain appeal as it's tangible, can be in my own possession & will always be worth something. But looking at some other threads it seems that the UK market & spread are poor, it also looks like it's perceived as a preppers only thing & may ultimately result in a loss.

Are there any real forms of bullet proof investments that are reasonably accessible - or am I just being a doomsday prepper?

Thanks.
Got a mortgage? If so, over payments!

I pay £750 a month over my repayment which will reduce my term by 17 years.

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
Joe5y said:
Got a mortgage? If so, over payments!

I pay £750 a month over my repayment which will reduce my term by 17 years.
Having no mortgage is a fantastic feeling, and arguably not being beholden to anyone else for the roof over your head the safest investment you can make.

If I was to take a mortgage now, I would be looking for something like an offset, or ensuring I could can draw down or take a holiday with the overpayements so that there isn't a big opportunity cost to the overpayment.

A44RON

493 posts

98 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
You are conflating capital and the purchasing power that it allows you to have. In the context of the previous discussion, premium bonds protect your capital but they don't protect your purchasing power and in all likelihood won't give you a return in real terms. However, the only way you will risk your initial investment is with the absolute destruction of the GBP - so in this regard it is safe.

I understand the risks of debasement to the money we use. That's why I own gold - as a baseline of insurance against the rest of my fiat currency assets. It remains the ultimate defensive asset, even if I don't believe we will see the destruction of any of the major world currencies any time soon (except perhaps the euro). The politics over the next year may get messy, but I don't expect a currency failure or a return to a gold standard as there is simply no reason any politician would choose to do it.

Most of your responses on this thread have been framed by the presumption that fiat currencies will burn. What if they don't?
I know you're playing devil's advocate with what I've posted, because you come across as deliberately obtuse and you conveniently avoid the questions I ask you and the evidence I've posted with links - which comes across as you don't even bother reading smile you would make a fantastic Politician...

The GB£ doesn't have to fully destruct for your capital to be worth less, inflation will do that alone.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-... - "sadly many savings accounts don't beat inflation, and this is also true of Premium Bonds."

If you have read that debt clock I posted on the previous page and you don't consider the US$ as slowly burning already then you are in denial to try suit your own argument. You post a lot of contradictory subjective statements with no substance to back up what you're saying, it's a lot of "I think" "I expect".

I'm glad you do view Gold as the ultimate defensive asset though, which answers the Op's question in the title of this thread smile

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
A44RON said:
I know you're playing devil's advocate with what I've posted, because you come across as deliberately obtuse and you conveniently avoid the questions I ask you and the evidence I've posted with links - which comes across as you don't even bother reading smile you would make a fantastic Politician...

The GB£ doesn't have to fully destruct for your capital to be worth less, inflation will do that alone.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-... - "sadly many savings accounts don't beat inflation, and this is also true of Premium Bonds."

If you have read that debt clock I posted on the previous page and you don't consider the US$ as slowly burning already then you are in denial to try suit your own argument. You post a lot of contradictory subjective statements with no substance to back up what you're saying, it's a lot of "I think" "I expect".

I'm glad you do view Gold as the ultimate defensive asset though, which answers the Op's question in the title of this thread smile
I don't know how to break this down any further since you appear unable or unwilling to acknowledge that a premium bond protects capital but not purchasing power. £50k put into a premium bond 5 years ago is worth £50k today and was guarenteed to be so, notwithstanding the terminal destruction of the GBP (in which case we have bigger problems). The purchasing power will have likely decreased, as you correctly say.

I acknowledge inflation exists.

I acknowledge inflation diminishes the ongoing purchasing power of savings.

I acknowledge there has been huge money printing by major central banks.

I acknowledge the maxim of 1oz of gold being able to buy you a good suit through the ages (although I have never verified the selling price of a Roman toga back in the day, or a good suit these days)


Since you think I am avoiding your questions, and I don't have much better to do today let me respond to every question mark in your posts above. I didn't think some were particularly relevant or thought it would be clear that I agreed with you anyway, so here is literally every sentence in your posts to me with a question mark...

A44RON said:
You have a share of an unallocated bar at a custodian - is it a paper contract/ETF that you hold?
As I replied previously: "No, it's an share in an unallocated bar at a custodian, not a paper or derivative product. I am well aware of the difference, although in practical terms if you only want exposure to the gold price you might as well go for the paper since the only difference will be in an edge case scenario where the monetary system breaks down."

A44RON said:
Would central Governments ever hold BitCoin in vast reserves? Why would they? Or would they just create their own crypto-currencies and then what happens to the value of BitCoin....
It's unlikely, but not impossible. They might do it if there was sufficient evidence that it was considered a viable long term store of value (something determined by our collective belief in it as humans) Sure they could create their own, and probably will. I'd probably view GovCoin to Bitcoin in a similar way to paper money to gold.

A44RON said:
Will BitCoin ever be regulated and back the US dollar? No, because its USP is its un-regulated decentralisation.
No, I agree it wouldn't. Partly for the reasons you say, and partly because it wouldn't serve the USGov/Fed to do so.

A44RON said:
What do you mean by Gold having 'collective value on our collective belief it has value'? Gold's value comes from the fact it's supply is steady, it's durable, doesn't corrode, it's highly fungible and scarce enough that it depends on what can be mined. Gold holds its value while the value of paper currency shrinks over time, so Gold enables you to pass wealth to the next generation over time.
As I replied previously: "Yes, the limited supply, durability, scarcity etc are good qualities for something by which the value of other things may be measured but this ultimately only works because collectively we agree that these qualities have value. The actual industrial consumption demand for gold is a fraction of the annual production - this is the baseline for it's value, the rest is the collective sentiment we place on it as a society, built up over thousands of years. Something like bitcoin shares these functional qualities, but without the depth and endurance of the collective belief."


I'm surprised you find my responses obtuse as I have tried to be as precise and specific as I can. I've not tried to avoid any questions, but I may have provided opinions that contrast or aren't as apocalyptic as your own. I've also asked a few questions of my own, but you don't seem too keen on answering them... smile

egomeister said:
You can't confiscate bitcoin unless you have access to the keys. If I am holding it on a paper wallet, and i sit it next to my gold how is it any less secure than the gold?
egomeister said:
Who is talking about bring back gold backing/convertibility for the dollar?
egomeister said:
if the bitcoin is in cold storage and the priavte keys are suitably defended please explain how the FBI or anyone else will be able to access them?
egomeister said:
Most of your responses on this thread have been framed by the presumption that fiat currencies will burn. What if they don't?
(apologies to anyone looking for advice about safe investments, and reading this instead... how money works is actually fascinating when you dig into it. If such info was more widely appreciated, we might be more active in demanding our governments and financial institutions behave responsibly and end up with a more resilient economy as a result!)

TobyTR

1,068 posts

148 months

Thursday 21st May 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
TobyTR said:
egomeister said:
No, it's an share in an unallocated bar at a custodian, not a paper or derivative product. I am well aware of the difference, although in practical terms if you only want exposure to the gold price you might as well go for the paper since the only difference will be in an edge case scenario where the monetary system breaks down.
That sounds a bit weird/dodgy? What is meant by a share of an unallocated bar at a custodian?

Can you walk in the premises at any time and grab your gold to then sell?
Literally that: I have a claim for a proportion of a (non-specific) 400oz bar of gold held in a third party vault in London. They buy the larger bars, and vault them all over the world, allowing customers to effectively purchase a proportion of one thus giving you a near direct exposure to gold without the risks of storing it yourself and reduced spreads relative to the spot gold price in comparision to small coins and bars. I think I have the option to withdraw physically in 100g increments but I'm not sure the cost is worth it.

The company I use is: https://www.bullionvault.com/ but there are a bunch of other people who offer similar services. Some will allow you to buy and store coins are bars that are specifically allocated to you (obviously with a cost implication) and I've seen some that have their own vaults cut deep into a Swiss mountain!
It sounds like you don't own it at all. Each to their own, but that would not sit comfortable with me

I've tried reading your comments on here and they all hurt to read! It's all very wishy-washy. I'm not sure if you do it on purpose or if you don't know what you're talking about

A44RON

493 posts

98 months

Friday 22nd May 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
You can't confiscate bitcoin unless you have access to the keys. If I am holding it on a paper wallet, and i sit it next to my gold how is it any less secure than the gold?

Who is talking about bring back gold backing/convertibility for the dollar?

if the bitcoin is in cold storage and the priavte keys are suitably defended please explain how the FBI or anyone else will be able to access them?

Most of your responses on this thread have been framed by the presumption that fiat currencies will burn. What if they don't?

(apologies to anyone looking for advice about safe investments, and reading this instead... how money works is actually fascinating when you dig into it. If such info was more widely appreciated, we might be more active in demanding our governments and financial institutions behave responsibly and end up with a more resilient economy as a result!)
To answer your questions again

1. BitCoin is digital, it can be traced, hacked and deleted. At some point you will have to use it digitally. Unless you plan to leave it on a wallet forever, in which case what is the point in holding it at all...

2. the possibility of going back to the Gold Standard has been under discussion among finance outlets and the mainstream finance media for the last couple of months. It's not going to be the Politicians decision to go back to the Gold Standard to back the world reserve currency (US $), it’s going to be the Market decision. Gold has historically proven to work as Money, because Gold is a viable reserve for currency. That’s why a lot of Central Banks buy Gold and hold a lot of Gold, because they are preparing for a return to a Gold-based monetary system that works, instead of this Petro-dollar Fiat system that isn’t.

The politicians don’t want the Gold Standard because it forces them to balance their books better. Voluntarily? Nope. They will most likely be forced into it in order to regain trust in a Fiat currency again. When the global Fiat collapse occurs, what will be the alternative? One thing is certain - there will be an enormous vacuum and people will be looking for the thing they believe they can trust the most. I guarantee you it won't be any government/bank issued paper or digital currency. Anything like that will be instantly rejected. Most will lean toward the thing that has a proven track record and is very easy to understand. Politicians won't choose to go back to a Gold standard. They could be forced to go back to a Gold standard. Big difference.

3. See point 1 again. Non-national cryptocurrency is at risk of being outlawed to ensure government dominance over transactions. Government will and can crush de-centralised un-regulated cryptos. BitCoin will face the challenge of national digital currencies around the world - see the link below, it's happening. The only feature and/or benefit BitCoin has is its high-volatility which can make you multiply your short-term investment or lose it at all. As another commentator posted on here: "I've never known anything make me feel so rich and so poor in one day!"

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/centr...

4. See my previous post that answered this question (which you ignored again) and read the figures on: https://www.usdebtclock.org/ Fiat currencies are already starting to burn.

egomeister

6,723 posts

265 months

Friday 22nd May 2020
quotequote all
TobyTR said:
It sounds like you don't own it at all. Each to their own, but that would not sit comfortable with me

I've tried reading your comments on here and they all hurt to read! It's all very wishy-washy. I'm not sure if you do it on purpose or if you don't know what you're talking about
The route I've taken with storage is about the 3rd most direct way to gain exposure as far as I am aware. I agree it's not ownership in the sense you can go and grab the stuff if you want, but that's part of the cost compromise. If you were to rank options in terms of counterparty risk I'd say something like this:

1. Buy physical yourself and store. You'd be subject to the spreads on the product that you are buying (bar/coin etc). At the moment this can be huge as there is a shortage in physical supply. Clearly you'd also be responsible for the secure storage/insurance.

2. Fully allocated and segregated storage. You buy your product but pay someone else look after it for you (such as the gold.co.uk option mentioned by another poster above). For context, if you buy a 1oz bar at the moment, you are looking at 9% premium to spot on the puchase, 3% on the sale (with £25 revaulting fee if a partial sale) and storage fees of min £10 per month

3. Aggregated storage. You buy a claim on a larger bar managed by someone else (such as the bullionvault option I use). In this case I can buy 1oz at approx 0.25% spread, with a 0.5% fee on buy and sale. Storgae is a min of $4/month

4. Fully backed ETC. Exchange traded contract to give exposure to the price of the commodity, where the provider backs the product with the physical metal. No opportunity to redeem for metal yourself, and you're ability to get out is contingent on the markets being open (which they won't be in a severe financial crisis!)

5. Derivative ETC. As above but the provider uses derivative products to provide the price exposure to the commodity. True paper gold.


I'm sorry if you find my comments wishy-washy, that's not my intention so I guess I must not know what I'm talking about. If we are discussing the nature of money, it's not a hard science but an amagamation of politics, economics, the pyschology of the human race/sentiment and so on. Whilst I agree with A44RON that ultimately the dollar will fail (no global reserve currency has survived yet!) I think he sees the path as a somewhat more direct one than I do so I wanted to explore his viewpoint in case we could both learn something new!

Mr Whippy

29,131 posts

243 months

Tuesday 26th May 2020
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I like the way they call an ETC a "commodity" hehe

Do the resellers get the irony?

A44RON

493 posts

98 months

Tuesday 2nd June 2020
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Paper contracts/ETCs are the main reason why Gold & Silver prices are suppressed. That's what makes me laugh.

It's all one huge game of musical chairs, except the hurt for those holding a bit of paper will be more than just no chair to sit on... I've researched this heavily. As it stands currently:

for every 1oz of physical Gold there is 87.62oz of 'paper gold' being traded

and

for every 1oz of physical Silver there is 173.71oz of 'paper silver' being traded


The worst thing one can do to a paper market trader who holds these paper gold/silver is demand delivery. So what do they do? Exit that position as quick as possible so they're not exposed to it... but, there was no exit! hehe there was a $100 spread difference! The ETFs blew up.

Once you have a physical fungible Gold or Silver bar, whether it be 1oz or 1kg, it is exchangeable and fungible to any other global exchange in the world without any counter-party risk. Therefore there is such a massive demand for such a network of physical exchanges that there are several major entities looking to fill that void as we speak... goodbye to the Comex once that happens.

If you're going to invest in Gold or Silver, you have to be certain it is either in your possession physically clunk clunk, or it's 100% allocated in your name and it never sits on a balance sheet of any institution where it's held in their name...



Edited by A44RON on Tuesday 2nd June 08:39

jshell

11,100 posts

207 months

Tuesday 2nd June 2020
quotequote all
A44RON said:
Paper contracts/ETCs are the main reason why Gold & Silver prices are suppressed. That's what makes me laugh.

It's all one huge game of musical chairs, except the hurt for those holding a bit of paper will be more than just no chair to sit on... I've researched this heavily. As it stands currently:

for every 1oz of physical Gold there is 87.62oz of 'paper gold' being traded

and

for every 1oz of physical Silver there is 173.71oz of 'paper silver' being traded


The worst thing one can do to a paper market trader who holds these paper gold/silver is demand delivery. So what do they do? Exit that position as quick as possible so they're not exposed to it... but, there was no exit! hehe there was a $100 spread difference! The ETFs blew up.

Once you have a physical fungible Gold or Silver bar, whether it be 1oz or 1kg, it is exchangeable and fungible to any other global exchange in the world without any counter-party risk. Therefore there is such a massive demand for such a network of physical exchanges that there are several major entities looking to fill that void as we speak... goodbye to the Comex once that happens.

If you're going to invest in Gold or Silver, you have to be certain it is either in your possession physically clunk clunk, or it's 100% allocated in your name and it never sits on a balance sheet of any institution where it's held in their name...
A good friend of mone did similar research with similar resuts! Gold and Silver have been sold many, many times over without substance!

Diamonds are the opposite - being stored to sustain values!

Lemming Train

5,567 posts

74 months

Tuesday 4th August 2020
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cheddar

4,637 posts

176 months

Tuesday 4th August 2020
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Lemming Train said:
Yes, quite the run since March, up 30% (USD) but silver monstered it, up 110% over the same period.

Lemming Train

5,567 posts

74 months

Tuesday 4th August 2020
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No silver here, but have quite a sizeable stash of Sovereigns and a few Krugerrands in our retirement pot. We don't view gold as an investment though, more as wealth preservation. For it to have risen in fiat value as much as it has done in recent months perfectly illustrates how fked up the (financial) world is right now. frown

cheddar

4,637 posts

176 months

Tuesday 4th August 2020
quotequote all
Bullion suppliers here (NZ) recently ran out of silver such was the demand.

Lemming Train

5,567 posts

74 months

Tuesday 4th August 2020
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cheddar said:
Bullion suppliers here (NZ) recently ran out of silver such was the demand.
Yes, same has happened here in Europe and also the USA. I've not looked recently but premiums above spot went through the roof and then all stock become sold out with lengthy lead times if you wanted more, still with the big premiums.

cheddar

4,637 posts

176 months

Wednesday 5th August 2020
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Lemming Train said:
cheddar said:
Bullion suppliers here (NZ) recently ran out of silver such was the demand.
Yes, same has happened here in Europe and also the USA. I've not looked recently but premiums above spot went through the roof and then all stock become sold out with lengthy lead times if you wanted more, still with the big premiums.
I hadn't read about that but I don't see it stopping either, I was recently offered a large premium for my holdings but declined.