Average house price now 8.7 times average income

Average house price now 8.7 times average income

Author
Discussion

ARHarh

3,822 posts

108 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
A few points I feel I need to make.

The average wage is very different to the average houshold income.
The amount one can borrow is vastly different to the 1970's
The fact first time buyers don't want to buy a 1 bed home like people used to do in the 70's.

Houses in the south east may be 15x average income but average income in the south east is most likely far higher than the national average.

In my mind average houses are affordable to average families as they always have been, just right now the average family has 2 incomes not one, therefore house prices will be higher. This is proved by the fact there are very few houses that do not sell, and they can't all be owned by boomers.

Evanivitch

20,385 posts

123 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
ARHarh said:
In my mind average houses are affordable to average families as they always have been
laugh

borcy

3,154 posts

57 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?

P-Jay

10,599 posts

192 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
I can't help but feel it's another problem we manage to kick down the road a bit using more and more external stimulus like Help to Buy, 40 year mortgages and the like.

It can't last forever though, the generation in their 20s now, seem to have given up even the idea of home ownership. I'm sure some will make it, with a combination of help from parents, another government deal or other financial trickery, but most don't think they'll ever manage it.

The rental market seems equally grim, they move in, make a house their home, start to feel comfortable and suddenly their BTL Landlord wants an extra 20% every year because "that's the market".

I'd love to know what the answer is, I haven't a clue, other than it will have to mean we break the most sacred unwritten rule in the UK. Homeowners are going to have to 'lose' for once. They might not be able to make tens of thousands of pounds every year by doing nothing, at the cost of those without. They might even lose a bit.

Tigerj

338 posts

97 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
P-Jay said:
I can't help but feel it's another problem we manage to kick down the road a bit using more and more external stimulus like Help to Buy, 40 year mortgages and the like.

It can't last forever though, the generation in their 20s now, seem to have given up even the idea of home ownership. I'm sure some will make it, with a combination of help from parents, another government deal or other financial trickery, but most don't think they'll ever manage it.

The rental market seems equally grim, they move in, make a house their home, start to feel comfortable and suddenly their BTL Landlord wants an extra 20% every year because "that's the market".

I'd love to know what the answer is, I haven't a clue, other than it will have to mean we break the most sacred unwritten rule in the UK. Homeowners are going to have to 'lose' for once. They might not be able to make tens of thousands of pounds every year by doing nothing, at the cost of those without. They might even lose a bit.
Depends on the area, I’m in my 20’s. From the southwest, 75% of people in my friends group have their own homes. Even the ones working minimum wage jobs. The ones that don’t are the ones who went off to London or expect to move into houses the same as the one they grew up in as their first house.

bloomen

6,963 posts

160 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
P-Jay said:
The rental market seems equally grim, they move in, make a house their home, start to feel comfortable and suddenly their BTL Landlord wants an extra 20% every year because "that's the market".
This is what might push things into total brokenness.

If a house buying market is stacked against a person of modest means, there really has to be a functioning rental market to make life tolerable.

In many ways it sounds like it's becoming worse than buying.

LimaDelta

6,555 posts

219 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
When the houses stop selling at (or above) the asking prices?

ChocolateFrog

25,798 posts

174 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
ARHarh said:
In my mind average houses are affordable to average families as they always have been
laugh
Have another.

hehe

ChocolateFrog

25,798 posts

174 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
40 year, 50 year, lifetime mortgages?

x5tuu

11,967 posts

188 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
When the houses stop selling at (or above) the asking prices?
When demand ceases.

LankyFreak

670 posts

29 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
borcy said:
That'll leave 550 a month to live on, assuming no pension contributions. Part of a house to pay for, maybe it's not free to live at home, add on commuting costs. Is that enough?
can confirm it isn't if you own a car

P-Jay

10,599 posts

192 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
ChocolateFrog said:
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
40 year, 50 year, lifetime mortgages?
My fear is the next magic potion to kick the can down the road is interest only becoming the norm. Buy a nice new starter home for a mere £250k, £12.5k deposit, £1500 a month, but don't worry, in 10 year's time, when you've paid £200k for your £250k home, and you still owe £237500. It'll be worth £350k so you've still 'made' £100k.

We might get another 10, even 20 years of housing prices rising 3x the rate of inflation if we do that, and it would still be a better bet than renting.






P-Jay

10,599 posts

192 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
Tigerj said:
P-Jay said:
I can't help but feel it's another problem we manage to kick down the road a bit using more and more external stimulus like Help to Buy, 40 year mortgages and the like.

It can't last forever though, the generation in their 20s now, seem to have given up even the idea of home ownership. I'm sure some will make it, with a combination of help from parents, another government deal or other financial trickery, but most don't think they'll ever manage it.

The rental market seems equally grim, they move in, make a house their home, start to feel comfortable and suddenly their BTL Landlord wants an extra 20% every year because "that's the market".

I'd love to know what the answer is, I haven't a clue, other than it will have to mean we break the most sacred unwritten rule in the UK. Homeowners are going to have to 'lose' for once. They might not be able to make tens of thousands of pounds every year by doing nothing, at the cost of those without. They might even lose a bit.
Depends on the area, I’m in my 20’s. From the southwest, 75% of people in my friends group have their own homes. Even the ones working minimum wage jobs. The ones that don’t are the ones who went off to London or expect to move into houses the same as the one they grew up in as their first house.
I'm surprised at that, minimum wage is about £23k a year full-time isn't it?

GroundEffect

13,857 posts

157 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
x5tuu said:
LimaDelta said:
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
When the houses stop selling at (or above) the asking prices?
When demand ceases.
That's a presumption that houses are being bought as primary residences. They are also being bought by the rich as assets (either as rental income, pure asset inflation or both), and that portion is accelerating away.

borcy

3,154 posts

57 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
LimaDelta said:
borcy said:
If there's no issue now, at what point would there be an issue? 10, 12 20x av incomes?
When the houses stop selling at (or above) the asking prices?
Should we wait that long? I'm not sure leave it all to supply and demand is a good idea. The gov is heavily involved with the housing market and will carry on doing so.

Evanivitch

20,385 posts

123 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
borcy said:
Should we wait that long? I'm not sure leave it all to supply and demand is a good idea. The gov is heavily involved with the housing market and will carry on doing so.
Exactly. We know that given the freedom to do so the house builders would be converting every office block and flood plain into homes. But government (all levels) regulation and economic limitations (workforce, materials) prevents that freedom. As well as other factors like insurance industry (I.e. non standard builds).

Olivera

7,242 posts

240 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
GroundEffect said:
That's a presumption that houses are being bought as primary residences. They are also being bought by the rich as assets (either as rental income, pure asset inflation or both), and that portion is accelerating away.
Indeed. My prediction for the next few decades is a further stratification of society, into a landlord property owning class, and a serf rental class, With the latter increasingly renting rooms in HMOs, at what used to be full house rental money. And for the lucky few (just) able to buy without family help, 40/50 year mortgages on smaller properties propped up by more crackpot government incentives.

jonathan_roberts

317 posts

9 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
This situation will only get worse until the UK starts building more homes.

Slow.Patrol

554 posts

15 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
GroundEffect said:
That's a presumption that houses are being bought as primary residences. They are also being bought by the rich as assets (either as rental income, pure asset inflation or both), and that portion is accelerating away.
Hardly surprising when interest rates were paying 0.25% on savings.

The average UK person doesn't have the confidence to invest in the stock exchange or the trust is paying someone to do it for them, so property is a safe bet.

Now interest rates have risen, landlords and second home owners might start selling.

bennno

11,756 posts

270 months

Monday 18th March
quotequote all
The continuous increase of house prices is absolutely by design.

It makes all home owners feel wealthy, so they borrow and spend equity on extensions, bathrooms, kitchens, cars and holidays.

The price of a 1 bed flat makes a £50k car appear inexpensive. Heck there's many a 3 bed semi with a range rover outside it these days.

House price growth and associated borrowing has fuelled the UK economy for many years.