Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)
Discussion
Isotopologue said:
Thanks for taking the time to get back to me. (FYI Gadgetmac - I have received answers to the questions I asked so perhaps a little less snark toward Kawasicki is appropriate from now on?)
Not a hope. You haven't been posting on here long enough to come up against his penchant for not answering awkward questions. Carry on and you will.I'm also not interested in trying to change his mind, he's been a conspiracy theorist since day one and these people are the problem, my days thinking Kawa and the cult are reachable ended long ago. Actually there was somebody who posted on here frequently that did kinda change their mind in the face of frankly overwhelming evidence against their argument but even then it was a softening of position rather than a full on about-turn.
All you can do with the cultists is keep throwing the latest climate science in their face. Sorry, its a harsh stance i know but they reap what they sow. See the politics thread for details.
kerplunk said:
Clearly how you go about normalizing hurricane damage costs to take into account the changing factors over time is a non-trivial task.
Pielke Jr claims to have wrote the manual on it 25 years ago, and then along come upstarts Grinstead et al writing another new improved (so they say) manual including other factors for normalizing the damage costs and got a different result to Pielke and others.
You can understand Pielke Jr not liking that - he's an expert on the subject.
Pielke Jr - "Many readers here will know that I, along with NOAA’s Chris Landsea, first developed the concept and methodology of hurricane damage normalization more than 25 years ago. I know this literature as well as anyone."
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/misinformatio...
Thanks a lot - that's very helpful context.Pielke Jr claims to have wrote the manual on it 25 years ago, and then along come upstarts Grinstead et al writing another new improved (so they say) manual including other factors for normalizing the damage costs and got a different result to Pielke and others.
You can understand Pielke Jr not liking that - he's an expert on the subject.
Pielke Jr - "Many readers here will know that I, along with NOAA’s Chris Landsea, first developed the concept and methodology of hurricane damage normalization more than 25 years ago. I know this literature as well as anyone."
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/misinformatio...
It's definitely complicated. I can also understand the frustration.
At the link you provided the interpretation of the single word "however" in the report seems (to me) to be the central issue relating to the citation of Grinsted et al.
When I read the extract quoted from the report (in the report itself), the "however" simply indicates to me that not all reported trends match the trend in frequency of USA landfall events and two examples are given.
Roger Pielke Jr takes the view that the "however" means that the bit before should be ignored and only the bit after the "however" is important.
Is this all a somewhat semantic point rather than one which might have a substantive impact on chapter 11 as noted in your link (or on the report Kawasicki brought up)? Or is it more important?
Skeptisk said:
You should post that in the other thread as it is usually the first response of the CC deniers that it is pointless us taking action because of China.
Chinese coal policy U-turn…https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/12/china-coal-cl...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissi...
On the other hand, coal power capacity continues to expand, setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups.
Taken together, these factors all but guarantee a decline in China’s CO2 emissions in 2024.
If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China’s wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024. This would push fossil fuel use – and emissions – into an extended period of structural decline.
On the other hand, coal power capacity continues to expand, setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups.
Taken together, these factors all but guarantee a decline in China’s CO2 emissions in 2024.
If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China’s wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024. This would push fossil fuel use – and emissions – into an extended period of structural decline.
From the NOAA
The planet just had its warmest October on record
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-planet-warmest-octob...
Extract:
The planet added another record-breaking month to 2023, with October ranking as the warmest October in the 174-year global climate record.
Last month was also 2023's fifth month in a row of record-warm global temperatures, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Below are more highlights from NOAA's October global climate report:
Climate by the numbers
October 2023
The average global temperature for October was 2.41°F (1.34°C) above the 20th-century average of 57.1°F (14.0°C), ranking as the world's warmest October on record. This was 0.43 of a degree F (0.24 of a degree C) above the previous record from October 2015. For the seventh-consecutive month, global ocean surface temperature also set a record high.
Looking regionally, Asia and South America had their warmest Octobers on record, while Africa, Europe and North America each had their second-warmest Octobers.
Last month was the 47th-consecutive October and the 536th-consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th-century average. The past 10 Octobers (2014–2023) have all been the warmest Octobers in NOAA's global climate record.
The year to date (YTD, January through October 2023)
The YTD average global surface temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record at 2.03 degrees F (1.13°C) above the 20th-century average.
According to NCEI's Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank as the warmest year on record for the world.
Other notable climate events from October 2023
Last month set a record for lowest global October sea ice extent. The record was set primarily due to a record-low sea ice extent (coverage) in the Antarctic, which saw its sixth-consecutive month with record-low sea ice extent. Globally, October sea ice extent was 380,000 square miles less than the previous record low from October 2016. The Arctic sea ice extent for October 2023 ranked as the seventh smallest in the satellite record.
Fifteen named tropical cyclones occurred across the globe. October 2023 saw 15 named tropical systems form around the world, which was above the 1991–2020 average of 12. Nine of those reached tropical cyclone strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), and seven reached major tropical cyclone strength (sustained winds of 111 mph or higher). Both Super Typhoon Bolaven in the West Pacific and Hurricane Otis in the East Pacific reached Category 5 strength (sustained winds of 157 mph or higher).
The planet just had its warmest October on record
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-planet-warmest-octob...
Extract:
The planet added another record-breaking month to 2023, with October ranking as the warmest October in the 174-year global climate record.
Last month was also 2023's fifth month in a row of record-warm global temperatures, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Below are more highlights from NOAA's October global climate report:
Climate by the numbers
October 2023
The average global temperature for October was 2.41°F (1.34°C) above the 20th-century average of 57.1°F (14.0°C), ranking as the world's warmest October on record. This was 0.43 of a degree F (0.24 of a degree C) above the previous record from October 2015. For the seventh-consecutive month, global ocean surface temperature also set a record high.
Looking regionally, Asia and South America had their warmest Octobers on record, while Africa, Europe and North America each had their second-warmest Octobers.
Last month was the 47th-consecutive October and the 536th-consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th-century average. The past 10 Octobers (2014–2023) have all been the warmest Octobers in NOAA's global climate record.
The year to date (YTD, January through October 2023)
The YTD average global surface temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record at 2.03 degrees F (1.13°C) above the 20th-century average.
According to NCEI's Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank as the warmest year on record for the world.
Other notable climate events from October 2023
Last month set a record for lowest global October sea ice extent. The record was set primarily due to a record-low sea ice extent (coverage) in the Antarctic, which saw its sixth-consecutive month with record-low sea ice extent. Globally, October sea ice extent was 380,000 square miles less than the previous record low from October 2016. The Arctic sea ice extent for October 2023 ranked as the seventh smallest in the satellite record.
Fifteen named tropical cyclones occurred across the globe. October 2023 saw 15 named tropical systems form around the world, which was above the 1991–2020 average of 12. Nine of those reached tropical cyclone strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), and seven reached major tropical cyclone strength (sustained winds of 111 mph or higher). Both Super Typhoon Bolaven in the West Pacific and Hurricane Otis in the East Pacific reached Category 5 strength (sustained winds of 157 mph or higher).
Simpo Two said:
Somehow when Gadgetmac is on his little mound waving his placards you know all is right with the world. A warm comforting feeling that means the rest of us can go and do something more constructive with our lives.
If that post is an example of you doing something "more constructive" with your life then I suggest you start hoping reincarnation is a thing because you're gonna need a second shot at it.Loving the way you appear to think you talk for everyone else... a bit too full of your own self-importance me'thinks.
Gadgetmac said:
Toltec said:
Kawasicki said:
A clear definition of sceptic or denier hasn’t yet been made. They are fluid in meaning, it makes for a superb distraction.
I think they are close in meaning to heretic or apostate. 
Welcome to the science thread, everyone.
Cue explanation that there are genuine scientific sceptics, but those denying climate change don’t deserve that description. Meanwhile an exact, consistent, definition of what exactly climate change means is astutely avoided. Words aren’t important in postmodern science, it’s about the feels.
Kawasicki said:
Gadgetmac said:
Toltec said:
Kawasicki said:
A clear definition of sceptic or denier hasn’t yet been made. They are fluid in meaning, it makes for a superb distraction.
I think they are close in meaning to heretic or apostate. Welcome to the science thread, everyone.
Cue explanation that there are genuine scientific sceptics, but those denying climate change don’t deserve that description. Meanwhile an exact, consistent, definition of what exactly climate change means is astutely avoided. Words aren’t important in postmodern science, it’s about the feels.
Welcome to the world of Kawa's climate scepticism where "just for balance" is anything but.
It's weird how posting the latest science papers and reports on the science thread can upset a few people, even so, I'll muster on...
Earth to warm up to 2.9C even with current climate pledges: UN
It's here (but it's also all over the net and ITV etc)
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-earth-29c-current-cl...
Extract:
Countries' greenhouse gas-cutting pledges put Earth on track for warming far beyond key limits, potentially up to a catastrophic 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, the UN said Monday, warning "we are out of road".
The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap report is released just ahead of crucial COP28 climate talks in Dubai and will feed into the global response to a sobering official "stocktake" of the failure to curb warming so far.
With this year expected to be the hottest in human history, UNEP said "the world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records".
Taking into account countries' carbon-cutting plans, UNEP warned that the planet is on a path for disastrous heating of between 2.5C and 2.9C by 2100. Based just on existing policies and emissions-cutting efforts, global warming would reach 3C.
But the world continues to pump record levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, with emissions up 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, UNEP said, adding that the increase was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and industrial processes.
...
Nearly 1.2C of global heating so far has already unleashed an escalating barrage of deadly impacts across the planet.
UNEP said temperatures have gone above 1.5C for more than 80 days already this year, although the Paris warming thresholds will be measured as an average over several decades.
The Emissions Gap report looks at the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries' decarbonization plans and what science says is needed to keep to the goals of the Paris Agreement.
hmmm... can't think why the UN are on the receiving end of such vitriol over on the politics thread from the usual suspects this morning.
Oh, wait up...
Earth to warm up to 2.9C even with current climate pledges: UN
It's here (but it's also all over the net and ITV etc)
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-earth-29c-current-cl...
Extract:
Countries' greenhouse gas-cutting pledges put Earth on track for warming far beyond key limits, potentially up to a catastrophic 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, the UN said Monday, warning "we are out of road".
The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap report is released just ahead of crucial COP28 climate talks in Dubai and will feed into the global response to a sobering official "stocktake" of the failure to curb warming so far.
With this year expected to be the hottest in human history, UNEP said "the world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records".
Taking into account countries' carbon-cutting plans, UNEP warned that the planet is on a path for disastrous heating of between 2.5C and 2.9C by 2100. Based just on existing policies and emissions-cutting efforts, global warming would reach 3C.
But the world continues to pump record levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, with emissions up 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, UNEP said, adding that the increase was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and industrial processes.
...
Nearly 1.2C of global heating so far has already unleashed an escalating barrage of deadly impacts across the planet.
UNEP said temperatures have gone above 1.5C for more than 80 days already this year, although the Paris warming thresholds will be measured as an average over several decades.
The Emissions Gap report looks at the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries' decarbonization plans and what science says is needed to keep to the goals of the Paris Agreement.
hmmm... can't think why the UN are on the receiving end of such vitriol over on the politics thread from the usual suspects this morning.Oh, wait up...
Toltec said:
Kawasicki said:
A clear definition of sceptic or denier hasn’t yet been made. They are fluid in meaning, it makes for a superb distraction.
I think they are close in meaning to heretic or apostate. alarmists said:
Nearly 1.2C of global heating so far has already unleashed an escalating barrage of deadly impacts across the planet.
...a little balance...
https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters
...a little more balance...and data that incorporates solely heat related deaths including Coronary events and other health issues - unlike the numbers from conspiracy theorists who seem to think that natural disasters like earthquakes, droughts and floods are the end of the story.
Released in the last 48 hours...
High temperatures may have caused over 70,000 excess deaths in Europe in 2022
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-high-temperatures-ex...
Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
The burden of heat-related mortality during the summer of 2022 in Europe may have exceeded 70,000 deaths according to a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
The authors of the study, published in The Lancet Regional Health—Europe, revised upwards initial estimates of the mortality associated with record temperatures in 2022 on the European continent. The study is titled "The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study."
In an earlier study, published in Nature Medicine, the same team used epidemiological models applied to weekly temperature and mortality data in 823 regions in 35 European countries and estimated the number of heat-related premature deaths in 2022 to be 62,862.
Released in the last 48 hours...
High temperatures may have caused over 70,000 excess deaths in Europe in 2022
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-high-temperatures-ex...
Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
The burden of heat-related mortality during the summer of 2022 in Europe may have exceeded 70,000 deaths according to a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).
The authors of the study, published in The Lancet Regional Health—Europe, revised upwards initial estimates of the mortality associated with record temperatures in 2022 on the European continent. The study is titled "The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study."
In an earlier study, published in Nature Medicine, the same team used epidemiological models applied to weekly temperature and mortality data in 823 regions in 35 European countries and estimated the number of heat-related premature deaths in 2022 to be 62,862.
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