Has Scientific Innovation Slowed Down?
Discussion
Was pondering this the other day. In the last century we have had some of the most exciting developments in history which have had a profound effect on the way we live our lives as human beings. From Einstein's theory of relativity, through to things like the Airplane, Radio, TV from anti-biotics to the Personal Computer and the internet. You could arguably say that the 20th century has seen some of the greatest advances of the human age.
However it seems to be that we have peaked and the last 20 or so years has quite frankly been a bit of a let down in comparison. Oh I am sure their are fine breakthroughs being made in nearly all the scientific and technological fields but IMO their hasn't been anything on a revolutionary\life changing scale for quite some time.
Have we peaked? Have we already discovered most of the basics so anything we do from now one isn't as groundbreaking? Are we just in a lull or are their groundbreaking developments occurring even now as we speak that I'm blissfully unaware of? What could be the next big breakthrough that will kickstart another step change in the way we live our lives?
Please feel free to discuss.
However it seems to be that we have peaked and the last 20 or so years has quite frankly been a bit of a let down in comparison. Oh I am sure their are fine breakthroughs being made in nearly all the scientific and technological fields but IMO their hasn't been anything on a revolutionary\life changing scale for quite some time.
Have we peaked? Have we already discovered most of the basics so anything we do from now one isn't as groundbreaking? Are we just in a lull or are their groundbreaking developments occurring even now as we speak that I'm blissfully unaware of? What could be the next big breakthrough that will kickstart another step change in the way we live our lives?
Please feel free to discuss.
That's the other thing, are innovations actually being held back due to commercial interests? Like it or not alongside our technological progress we have also seen the progress of capitalism which means that now more than any other time in our history, scientific and technological progress is controlled by those who are willing to pay for it. Worse still I think this also includes whether it will step on the toes of existing sources of revenue.
I truly believe for instance that if it weren't for the massive power monopoly held by the fuel and energy companies we would be a lot further along in our race to find alternative forms of clean renewable energy.
I truly believe for instance that if it weren't for the massive power monopoly held by the fuel and energy companies we would be a lot further along in our race to find alternative forms of clean renewable energy.
I realise that of course their are innovations and advances going on all the time but I keep hearing the same things, "esoteric" and may "change our life in the future". It just seems that we've moved away from practical innovations to concentrate on theoretical studies.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
blinkythefish said:
I think you are viewing past breakthroughs with a kind of hindsight.
Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
While I agree that it's usually an amalgam of gradually advancing technologies that create the big breakthroughs I still think their is a definite point where it changes from look at all these clever little ideas, to Eureka, we just invented the auto-mobile.Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
For cars you could say it was the Model T, for air planes possibly the Wright Brothers (although I know their has been some debate around that). My point is that their is usually a flashpoint where it all seems to come together and the results then fundamentally change the way we live. The internet is probably the biggest development for my generation but that was 20 years ago now, I guess I'm just keen to see what the next big step change will be and where it will come from.
My two predictions for game changers we might see in the next 10-20 years are the solving of fusion power or some other form of energy and the development of genetics\microbiology to a point where we can eradicate most forms of illness in the womb and even prolong life although I predict the last might have serious implications on earth's natural resources.
ewenm said:
How would you empirically measure this sort of thing? It's very difficult. With hindsight it's relatively easy to see that ideas and innovations X, Y and Z combined to produce amazing products A and B but it's almost impossible to start with all the recent ideas and innovations and predict which will result in amazing products.
Very true, I just think the 20th century has been a humdinger in terms of scientific and technological progress (probably massively helped along by two world wars). I know we are only 13 years into the 21st but it has a hell of a way to go to top the last one. I'll put my stake in the ground and say it will be looked back on in hindsight as THE century that really changed the course of humanity. Even things developed after this will probably have roots in discoveries made in the last century...unless of course scientists discover the secret of eternal youth in the next 20 years, in which case I reserve the right to take it all back
I think some people have hit the crux of the problem. We seem to be making advances all the time but the really game changing breakthroughs may be being held back due to politics or profit. We COULD go to Mars but we don't because it will cost too much and doesn't serve a short term purpose (although the long term benefits might be huge). I'm sure we could also crack something like fusion a lot quicker if we made a real concerted effort but we don't because our entire economy is still based on fossil fuels and I'd bet their are similar blockers for all sorts of other advances.
I think the real change between this century and the last is that we've become very mercenary in our search for knowledge. It seems a lot of the time we've stopped thinking about long term goals and doing things just to find out if we can or to further the knowledge of mankind as the people that pay for these innovations can't or won't think about the long term view. I think this more than anything is stopping us from making the really big leaps that we've all been hearing about and waiting for but which haven't materialised.
I think the real change between this century and the last is that we've become very mercenary in our search for knowledge. It seems a lot of the time we've stopped thinking about long term goals and doing things just to find out if we can or to further the knowledge of mankind as the people that pay for these innovations can't or won't think about the long term view. I think this more than anything is stopping us from making the really big leaps that we've all been hearing about and waiting for but which haven't materialised.
Simpo Two said:
Well this is the internet you know 
But seriously, one reaches a point in life when you can look back a few decades and take a perspective view.
You make a valid point of 'knowing where to look' - so why is all this innovation you talk about hidden? It's a pity the news is always full of politics and war; it should really be full of science and innovation and exciting things. The ISS is a great achievement - when was it last on the news?
This is something I agree with, we just don't publicise our accomplishments enough or make science\innovation an everyday part of our lives. I shouldn't have to go reading scientific journals to hear about the important breakthroughs. Those that are reported in the mainstream media are often either misreported or over-sensationalised.But seriously, one reaches a point in life when you can look back a few decades and take a perspective view.
You make a valid point of 'knowing where to look' - so why is all this innovation you talk about hidden? It's a pity the news is always full of politics and war; it should really be full of science and innovation and exciting things. The ISS is a great achievement - when was it last on the news?
I think the BBC should bring Tomorrow's World back
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