The Official 2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**

[Dr Z]

Date(s): Friday 27 April - Sunday 29 April 2018

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1 and Channel 4.

Session	Day	Sky F1	Channel 4	Session Start	Local Time
Practice 1	Fri	0945	0955	1000	1300
Practice 2	Fri	1345	1355	1400	1700
Practice 3	Sat	1045	1055	1100	1400
Qualifying	Sat	1300	1255	1400	1700
Race	Sun	1130	1200	1310	1610

Baku City Circuit, Azerbaijan



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Lap times, PU component use, technical reports and Stewards' decisions for the weekend will appear here:

https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-c...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Azerbaijan/Bak...

The tyre choices:




Pirelli have this to say:

• With the race starting just after 4pm, track temperatures cool rapidly as the sun begins to go down. None of the free practice sessions take place at exactly the same time as the race start though.
• Because Baku is a street circuit tightly enclosed by buildings, there are many areas of lights and shade, making track temperatures even harder to assess.
• The main straight is two kilometres long, which means that the tyres can cool down before the braking area at the end of it. After Spa, Baku is the second-longest lap of the season.
• Last year’s strategy was affected by safety cars and a red flag, which can play a prominent role on the narrow track – cars have often tangled in the tight confines of Baku previously.
• The winning strategy involved three tyre changes last year, with the second one taking place during the safety car period and the last one under red flag conditions. Daniel Ricciardo won the race starting from 10th position on the grid with a supersoft-soft-supersoft-supersoft strategy.
• One of the biggest challenges for drivers last year was warming up the front and rear tyres at the same rate. With cooler conditions, this problem is likely to be accentuated.

2017 Qualifying





2017 Race








Fastest Race Lap: 1:43.441 (L47, S. Vettel; Ferrari) - lap record

---

So, a few teams tested skinny wings at China in preparation for this race. You know the score on this one: the longest straight in the calendar (2.2km), smooth roads, a ton of 90 degree corners with a tight and twisty section going through the old city. Who will be the victim of the walls this year?

The predicted chaos for the inaugural race was a year late, and it arrived in some style last year. Will we see a repeat or will the drivers have wised up now and keep their noses clean in hopes of a chaotic race they can benefit from?

Never have Mercedes gone 3 races without a win in the hybrid era. Will they make it this time out?

And F2 is back this weekend for Round 2 of the Championship.

Edited by Dr Z on Monday 23 April 17:32

[Dr Z]

Nigel_O said:

Is this the lowest GP? Maximum elevation of 2.1m and as much as 24m below sea level

It is indeed the race conducted at the lowest below sea level in the calendar.

[Dr Z]

Some more of my notes for the race:

This track is like China except the corners don't go on for long (the majority being short 90 degree ones), and a much longer straight.

Due to the longer straight, teams will try to run the lowest downforce level they can get away with in order to have good end of straight speeds in the numerous straights in sectors 1 & 3.

Cars with good mechanical grip and traction will excel in sector 2, and it's possible to offset some of the lap time loss on the straights with a good set up for this sector. However, there's no replacement for horsepower in sector 1 & 3. The balance is still tending towards the most powerful & fuel efficient engines.

Turn 16 is a medium speed corner and a better exit/traction out of it is important for slip streaming & overtaking as the DRS is only available more than half way down the straight (turns 17-19 are taken flat). Variation in mechanical grip (due to tyre strategy or inherent car setup), will come into play.

% full throttle per lap is similar to China, however fuel consumption is much higher (around 10% higher), with the hybrid systems working harder here. This would translate to a race pace advantage for teams running the more fuel efficient engines. Whether this would be sufficient to pass another car with a less efficient engine, remains to be seen.

Influence of the track temp changes are perhaps overstated by Pirelli (differences in light and shade apply though). Big swings in ambient and track temps were seen through the weekend in previous races which caught out many teams. The forecast temps are consistent from Friday to Sunday through the day, so it will allow teams to account for it much better.

The ingredients appear to be a perfect blend for Merc to dominate the weekend, so it will be interesting to see the pecking order. Also, low downforce trim has generally been a weakness for Ferrari last year, so it would be interesting to see how their car goes here. And is their PU close enough in fuel efficiency to Merc to allow them to make a fight of it? I doubt it, but if they do, then it bodes well for the rest of the season.

[Dr Z]

suffolk009 said:

Gaz. said:

Many on F1Technical believe the Ferrari PU has not only more power than the Merc engine, but actually quite a bit more.

Not to dismiss the great minds at work over there, but what have they based this belief on?

I'd like to know their reasoning too. Yes Ferrari have a potent qualifying mode and they have most probably surpassed Merc there. Nothing different from last year until about Canada when a Merc employee decided to tell FIA about a separate oil tank. The Ferrari used to make time up on the Merc on the straights then too. Nothing as dramatic as now, mind, although a slippery car can account for a lot of what is seen this year and that is my belief.

You don't see this supposed power advantage in the race though, where Merc seem to hit higher top speeds much more consistently with the Ferrari needing to manage the fuel more.

Edited by Dr Z on Wednesday 25th April 08:11

[Dr Z]

Vocal Minority said:

I think people have held the 'Mercedes are unequivocally the best' for so long, they are loathe to change their opinion.

I am not saying they won't come good. However, with the best will in the world to Dr Z and their very well written reasoning about sector 2 in particular....we have seen these predictions before this term.

Fair enough, we'll see when the cars hit the track. If Ferrari can win this one in a straight fight, they'll become firm favourites for the title in my view.

So far they've been going about it the right way.

[Dr Z]

Deesee said:

Thanks Dr Z, superb posting here (and also super some insight too), personally I love the FIA link...

Thanks

I try to have info in the OP that I like to access for a GP weekend more than anything so, glad it's useful.

[Dr Z]

Early days, green track etc etc but the 'Bulls looking quick.

[Dr Z]

Vocal Minority said:

Deck's had a proper old shuffle there.

P2/3 will start to show a more normal order methinks.

Red Bull have indeed done well on the soft.

Yep, lots of cars struggling to get heat into the tyres...and both the Ferrari drivers were complaining of overheating the rears...

[Dr Z]

The 'Bulls looked quick again, but then they looked quick last year too...before the various party modes got turned on.

It's a pleasure to watch Alonso drag that lazy ass McLaren around this track. Not.

ELUSIVEJIM said:

It's unbelievable that the Toro Rosso "even without a low downforce rear wing" are fastest in a straight line.

Very early in the weekend but that's impressive.

Eh? It looked very skinny to me, almost as skinny as the RB. No matter, all will be revealed tomorrow.

[Dr Z]

Gad-Westy said:

Stuck in the office today so not seen any of this. What happened to Vandoorne?

Just looked plain slower both on 1-lap pace and in the long runs. He'll take a look at Alonso's setup overnight I'm sure.

So, I'm seeing quite a bit of deg on the ultra softs in the long runs, within about 12 laps for the 1st stint simulations. I'm not sure a set of super softs might last the rest of the race even if cars start pitting by lap 15...so we could be looking at a mix of strategies again.

[Dr Z]

Jabbah said:

Dr Z said:

Just looked plain slower both on 1-lap pace and in the long runs. He'll take a look at Alonso's setup overnight I'm sure.

They were meant to be testing some lower drag aero today. Could it have just been on Alonso's car if they did?

Didn't see a substantial top speed difference between the cars, so I don't think the car setup was different. They're still not gaining as much speed as other cars when they open the RW in the quali sims. Top speed looked OK in the long runs.

Stoff missing 6 tenths in sector 2 and 2 tenths in sector 1. He set his fastest lap on the super softs a bit earlier than Alonso, who set his on the ultras. Alonso also got a substantial tow from Hulk when he set his fastest lap, so I would add 3-4 tenths to his time to get a true lap time. Alonso is still showing better speed in the long runs and you can't bridge that gap with the softer compounds on a single lap, but hope the gap closes tomorrow.

[Dr Z]

IbrahimLafayette said:

Does anyone have the sector times, was Vettel the fastest in sector 3, did Hamilton have a higher top speed than Vettel? I wonder if the Ferrari can stay in front on the long straights.
Someone said the Ferrari can accelerate more quickly, but I believe the top speed advantage is by the Mercedes?

Merc & Ferrari pretty much identical in sector 1, Ferrari 0.45s up on Merc in sector 2, Merc 0.2s up on Ferrari in sector 3. Not very clear if Ferrari had a better sector 3 in them as Kimi's final run was compromised.

Over a qualifying lap Merc cars had around 3-4 km/h on the Ferraris at the top end down the long straight. With the tow effect being so powerful, Vettel needs to nail that sector 2 every single lap if he's ahead, in order to stay ahead. Otherwise I can see the Mercs ganging up on him and overtaking him tomorrow.

So one piece of the puzzle has slotted in to place for the Championship. Keen to see what happens in the race tomorrow.

[Dr Z]

Tyres left for the race:



Pirelli reckon the fastest strategy (theoretically) is a 1-stopper starting with 21 laps on super soft then 30 laps on soft.
Plan B would be a 1-stopper starting with 10 laps on ultra soft then 41 laps on soft.

NRS said:

Assuming a clean start surely the main issue Vettel has is the undercut if the Mercs can keep up. One of them can risk it, and the other one stays out if it doesn't work.

Merc race pace is a bit of an unknown, as the long runs were not easy to read. I think they're going to be very very quick in the race as they're better on fuel than Ferrari normally...and the Ferrari is carrying more wing. Without an SC, this race is right on the 105kg fuel limit.

However, as noted temps are going to be cold & windy with quite a few cars graining the tyres yesterday. If Mercs are compromising a bit of downforce to compete with Ferrari in a straight line or give them an advantage in the race to overtake, this is not going to be good news.

It is also likely the Merc drivers are going to wear out their tyres more by pushing hard in sector 2 in a bid to get a run at Ferrari in sector 3...that's assuming if the start is clean with Vettel maintaining position.

As for the undercut, I think Raikkonen is going to be key. If he gets in the pack among the top 5 drivers after lap 1, Ferrari can use him as bait as his tyres are not going to last as long as the others on super soft. Soft would give a longer middle stint to cover possible safety car...depending on pace/degradation they can then decide to 1-stop or do a short final stint on the ultra softs (as all top six cars have 1 new set left).

This season is turning out to be very intriguing!

Edited by Dr Z on Saturday 28th April 19:40

[Dr Z]

^Agreed. Heads up, F2 sprint race on now.

Live timing here:

http://www.fiaformula2.com/Live-Timing/Live-Timing...

[Dr Z]

Super drive by Russell.

[Dr Z]

Wind direction seems to be changing every 10 seconds. This is going to play a big part down the long straight.

Wind speed is 10 km/h atm.

[Dr Z]

Sainz fronts graining quite a bit.

[Dr Z]

HustleRussell said:

Please tell me Vandoorne pitted?

Nope Alonso has started at the back and come and overtaken him!

[Dr Z]

Ham's tyre is finished

[Dr Z]

Lots of graining on the Mercs and Ferrari...Rai's Softs look alright?