End of petrol and hybrid
Discussion
V10 SPM said:
Really? In the whole world? Absolute nonsense.
If no one is making them then the choice is made for you. That's 2-3 generations of vehicles away. Why would any major manufacturer bother investing billions into a new round of tech that's officially killed off and with plenty of notice?Their shareholders or owners would fire all of them.
J4CKO said:
Public transport works in a lot of cases, but people still want private transport, try getting a weeks shopping for a family home on a bus or train ?
Buses are crap by and large, not because they dont go where you want them to go, mainly as it takes bloody ages as they have to stop every 15 feet for people to get on and off.
I would go by bike before using a bus.
Delivered by robo-van.Buses are crap by and large, not because they dont go where you want them to go, mainly as it takes bloody ages as they have to stop every 15 feet for people to get on and off.
I would go by bike before using a bus.
bloomen said:
V10 SPM said:
Really? In the whole world? Absolute nonsense.
If no one is making them then the choice is made for you. That's 2-3 generations of vehicles away. Why would any major manufacturer bother investing billions into a new round of tech that's officially killed off and with plenty of notice?I had been looking to change car end of this year, but some of the above mean that manufacturers that I was considering have already moved away from what I need for the next 5-6 years, so they have made the decision for me, in that, I will now not be buying another new car, and will keep the one I've got and basically run it into the ground and then throw it away and swap it for a mobility scooter in 10-15 years time. I certainly won't be in a financial position once retired to buy a new car, EV one or otherwise, so now no choice for me.
rjg48 said:
Why would any major manufacturer invest Billions in a project that was for the UK Market only?
Japan's aiming for all electric sales by 2050. Europe probably will too. China will find EVs way more simple to develop and probably more profitable. It'll be the good old US that'll be the holdout but even then EVs will have made a giant dent so the incentive to be non EV will diminish every year.
No idea how the power infrastructure is going to be adapted to meet the huge increase in demand that mass EV use will necessitate.
Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.
We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.
However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...
The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.
Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.
We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.
However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...
The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.
Digga said:
No idea how the power infrastructure is going to be adapted to meet the huge increase in demand that mass EV use will necessitate.
Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.
We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.
However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...
The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.
Peak UK power demand was in year 2000 it has been decreasing year on year ever since. Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.
We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.
However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...
The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.
Given most EVs will be charged at night it should represent no challenge to the grid - and is frankly a lie pushed by vested interests in ICE.
Welshbeef said:
Peak UK power demand was in year 2000 it has been decreasing year on year ever since.
Given most EVs will be charged at night it should represent no challenge to the grid - and is frankly a lie pushed by vested interests in ICE.
In general I agree. However there are challenges if people significantly change their behaviour from ICE and expect super-fast chargers at home (rather than at the equivalent of petrol stations). You can get a 7kW charger without three-phase and without any real changes to the grid or wiring at home. For most this will be fine. If people start wanting superchargers at home then you need three-phase and beefed up delivery to each home. But is that a realistic demand? Most people don't have petrol pumps at home...Given most EVs will be charged at night it should represent no challenge to the grid - and is frankly a lie pushed by vested interests in ICE.
jamoor said:
The funny thing here is,
99% of the population don't WANT an ICE car, they want an electric car, they just don't know it yet.
I want to swap my second car for one, because 20p per mile vs 0.04p per mile. But they cost too much, the new SKoda Citigo is about the cheapest option and it's £22k, getting on for double what the petrol cost and 3 times what a second hand one with less than 10k on the clock costs.99% of the population don't WANT an ICE car, they want an electric car, they just don't know it yet.
That's a pretty big hurdle to fix, on a macro level you simply can't ask for £10k from everyone that buys a new car, it would kill the industry and ultimately is hugely regressive. What is the plan for dealing with social mobility and equality of opportunity when the poorest are priced out of all the good stuff that goes with being able to travel easily and cheaply?
The infrastructure costs are very obviously astronomical and clearly beyond what Government and the Civil Service are capable of delivering. That isn't head in the sand, denialism, it's basic realism with a healthy dose of practicality thrown in.
It's essential that we understand the plan for this, what the costs are and how the costs are going to be distributed through society as a starting point, but more importantly how we are going to deal with the social costs that will inevitably be imposed, particularly as this will be done badly because Government is driving it rather than the Market.
robbieduncan said:
In general I agree. However there are challenges if people significantly change their behaviour from ICE and expect super-fast chargers at home (rather than at the equivalent of petrol stations). You can get a 7kW charger without three-phase and without any real changes to the grid or wiring at home. For most this will be fine. If people start wanting superchargers at home then you need three-phase and beefed up delivery to each home. But is that a realistic demand? Most people don't have petrol pumps at home...
You have to question whether a lifestyle which requires fast home charging is going to be considered sustainable going forwards, whether it is facilitated by an EV or a diesel. I think the argument "You must accommodate me frequently driving hundreds of miles a day" is going to get short shrift.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff