End of petrol and hybrid

End of petrol and hybrid

Author
Discussion

Shaoxter

4,102 posts

126 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
rjg48 said:
MC Bodge said:
I detect fear of change.
Not fear of change.

Charging a car at home is not possible for millions of Londoners, for one.
Yeah but people in London generally only drive short distances or use public transport for their daily commute. I'm lucky enough to have home charging but even if I didn't, I only charge once a week and that's for a car with only a 100 mile range. In 15 years there will be way more charging points so you'd just have to plug it in every week or two while you do your shopping.

Dont like rolls

3,798 posts

56 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
TBH there are essentially TWO types of personal car user.

City drivers/shopping/school users, EV is getting there even for Taxis

Country/Heavey load/Long Distance/Constant use, EV is not there yet.

Fatball

645 posts

61 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Piha said:
This hateful tory government cares not one jot for the British public.

Whoever voted for this evil cabal, just look at what you have done with your votes, shame on you....
You’ve missed the letters ss and ed from your screen name.

bloomen

7,010 posts

161 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
V10 SPM said:
Really? In the whole world? Absolute nonsense.
If no one is making them then the choice is made for you. That's 2-3 generations of vehicles away. Why would any major manufacturer bother investing billions into a new round of tech that's officially killed off and with plenty of notice?

Their shareholders or owners would fire all of them.


J4CKO

41,826 posts

202 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
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[redacted]

Dont like rolls

3,798 posts

56 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
Public transport works in a lot of cases, but people still want private transport, try getting a weeks shopping for a family home on a bus or train ?

Buses are crap by and large, not because they dont go where you want them to go, mainly as it takes bloody ages as they have to stop every 15 feet for people to get on and off.

I would go by bike before using a bus.
Delivered by robo-van.

rjg48

2,671 posts

63 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
bloomen said:
Why would any major manufacturer bother investing billions into a new round of tech that's officially killed off and with plenty of notice?
Why would any major manufacturer invest Billions in a project that was for the UK Market only?

jamoor

14,506 posts

217 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
The funny thing here is,

99% of the population don't WANT an ICE car, they want an electric car, they just don't know it yet.

Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
Public transport works in a lot of cases, but people still want private transport, try getting a weeks shopping for a family home on a bus or train ?
We are moving in a direction where heavy objects are delivered to you.

aeropilot

35,008 posts

229 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
bloomen said:
V10 SPM said:
Really? In the whole world? Absolute nonsense.
If no one is making them then the choice is made for you. That's 2-3 generations of vehicles away. Why would any major manufacturer bother investing billions into a new round of tech that's officially killed off and with plenty of notice?
Already happening to an extent, as WLTP issues, dieselgate and other questions about the future mean that people have already questioned buying a new car, as sales figures in past 12 months have proven.

I had been looking to change car end of this year, but some of the above mean that manufacturers that I was considering have already moved away from what I need for the next 5-6 years, so they have made the decision for me, in that, I will now not be buying another new car, and will keep the one I've got and basically run it into the ground and then throw it away and swap it for a mobility scooter in 10-15 years time. I certainly won't be in a financial position once retired to buy a new car, EV one or otherwise, so now no choice for me.




bloomen

7,010 posts

161 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
rjg48 said:
Why would any major manufacturer invest Billions in a project that was for the UK Market only?
Japan's aiming for all electric sales by 2050. Europe probably will too. China will find EVs way more simple to develop and probably more profitable.

It'll be the good old US that'll be the holdout but even then EVs will have made a giant dent so the incentive to be non EV will diminish every year.


CABC

5,628 posts

103 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
jamoor said:
The funny thing here is,

99% of the population don't WANT an ICE car, they want an electric car, they just don't know it yet.
yep.

Digga

40,488 posts

285 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
No idea how the power infrastructure is going to be adapted to meet the huge increase in demand that mass EV use will necessitate.

Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.

We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.

However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...

The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

200 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Digga said:
No idea how the power infrastructure is going to be adapted to meet the huge increase in demand that mass EV use will necessitate.

Anyone who's had experience of trying to get even a modest 3-phase electricity supply into a building will understand.

We did due diligence on a building we were looking to buy in 2018. It was big enough for our needs, but the electricity supply was specced for warehouse duty and we were wanting to put large CNC machine tools and robots in there. Long story short, for the building to be useful, we'd have to have a 400A sub-station, which would cost around £70k. This was not a deal-breaker but, in the end, we used another premises.

However, that amount of power would max-out the local supply network. In other words, we were told, you can have the supply, but you cannot have any more...

The Porsche Experience Centre at Silverstone has just undergone a project to fit out a bank of EV charging points (about 20 of them IIRC) and to do this required pylons to bring power in across fields because the supply into the building at the circuit was simply not enough. The work cost seven figures.
Peak UK power demand was in year 2000 it has been decreasing year on year ever since.

Given most EVs will be charged at night it should represent no challenge to the grid - and is frankly a lie pushed by vested interests in ICE.

robbieduncan

1,982 posts

238 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Peak UK power demand was in year 2000 it has been decreasing year on year ever since.

Given most EVs will be charged at night it should represent no challenge to the grid - and is frankly a lie pushed by vested interests in ICE.
In general I agree. However there are challenges if people significantly change their behaviour from ICE and expect super-fast chargers at home (rather than at the equivalent of petrol stations). You can get a 7kW charger without three-phase and without any real changes to the grid or wiring at home. For most this will be fine. If people start wanting superchargers at home then you need three-phase and beefed up delivery to each home. But is that a realistic demand? Most people don't have petrol pumps at home...

paulrockliffe

15,802 posts

229 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
jamoor said:
The funny thing here is,

99% of the population don't WANT an ICE car, they want an electric car, they just don't know it yet.
I want to swap my second car for one, because 20p per mile vs 0.04p per mile. But they cost too much, the new SKoda Citigo is about the cheapest option and it's £22k, getting on for double what the petrol cost and 3 times what a second hand one with less than 10k on the clock costs.

That's a pretty big hurdle to fix, on a macro level you simply can't ask for £10k from everyone that buys a new car, it would kill the industry and ultimately is hugely regressive. What is the plan for dealing with social mobility and equality of opportunity when the poorest are priced out of all the good stuff that goes with being able to travel easily and cheaply?

The infrastructure costs are very obviously astronomical and clearly beyond what Government and the Civil Service are capable of delivering. That isn't head in the sand, denialism, it's basic realism with a healthy dose of practicality thrown in.

It's essential that we understand the plan for this, what the costs are and how the costs are going to be distributed through society as a starting point, but more importantly how we are going to deal with the social costs that will inevitably be imposed, particularly as this will be done badly because Government is driving it rather than the Market.


aeropilot

35,008 posts

229 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
Digga said:
No idea how the power infrastructure is going to be adapted to meet the huge increase in demand that mass EV use will necessitate.
That's OK, as neither do the Govt.


Shaoxter

4,102 posts

126 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
[redacted]

CABC

5,628 posts

103 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
[redacted]

otolith

56,744 posts

206 months

Tuesday 4th February 2020
quotequote all
robbieduncan said:
In general I agree. However there are challenges if people significantly change their behaviour from ICE and expect super-fast chargers at home (rather than at the equivalent of petrol stations). You can get a 7kW charger without three-phase and without any real changes to the grid or wiring at home. For most this will be fine. If people start wanting superchargers at home then you need three-phase and beefed up delivery to each home. But is that a realistic demand? Most people don't have petrol pumps at home...
You have to question whether a lifestyle which requires fast home charging is going to be considered sustainable going forwards, whether it is facilitated by an EV or a diesel. I think the argument "You must accommodate me frequently driving hundreds of miles a day" is going to get short shrift.