What’s the future hold for us petrol heads?

[RobDickinson]

Honeywell said:

We have neither the power stations nor the local grid nor the domestic infrastructure to go all electric for cars. Nor does the planet have enough lithium. Plus electric won't work for lorries and plant and combine harvesters.

Batteries are an expensive stepping stone to hydrogen.

lols not this st again.

[Honeywell]

Yep. Renewables like wind and solar and tide and geothermal will be used to make electricity which will be used to frack hydrogen. Stored in large tanks and shipped like oil.

Solves the intermittency issue and the location problem.

Batteries will never have the energy density needed.

[otolith]

RobM77 said:

Why is that?

Thermodynamics.

If you start with renewable energy, electrolyse water, compress, transport, put through a fuel cell to charge a small battery to turn the wheels - you end up with about 1/3 the miles you’d have got by putting the energy straight into a big battery.

And at the end of the day, all you get is an electric car that’s slower, less efficient, more expensive and less convenient to charge than a battery one. The only advantage is that it refills quicker than current batteries charge, but you have to drive to a special shop to do so, you can’t just plug it in where you park.

[anonymous-user]

RobDickinson said:

RobM77 said:

Random off topic question, but does anyone know where Hydrogen fuel cell tech is right now? It was touted as the next greatest thing years ago. From what I remember, H2 combines with O2, generating electricity and the by product is simply H2O - water.

its fundamentally in the garbage bin for passenger cars.

You wish.

Today on Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15...

Hyundai

https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/eco/nexo/beca...

South Korea Hydrogen Road Map

https://www.iea.org/policies/6566-korea-hydrogen-e...

"The goal of Korean government plans to foster an increase in the number of hydrogen powered cars from
2,000 in 2018, 4,000 in 2019 to 6.2 million by 2040 and make the country the No. 1 producer of hydrogen
powered cars and fuel cells globally by 2030"

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 16th July 01:40

[leef44]

otolith said:

RobM77 said:

Why is that?

Thermodynamics.

If you start with renewable energy, electrolyse water, compress, transport, put through a fuel cell to charge a small battery to turn the wheels - you end up with about 1/3 the miles you’d have got by putting the energy straight into a big battery.

And at the end of the day, all you get is an electric car that’s slower, less efficient, more expensive and less convenient to charge than a battery one. The only advantage is that it refills quicker than current batteries charge, but you have to drive to a special shop to do so, you can’t just plug it in where you park.

It's not necessarily "less convenient to charge than a battery one". It's like filling a car with petrol/diesel. You have to go to a fuel station.

If you live in a flat in a city with congestion charging and no source of plugging in then a filling station is more convenient and a hydrogen car would serve that purpose.

[leef44]

jsf said:

RobDickinson said:

RobM77 said:

Random off topic question, but does anyone know where Hydrogen fuel cell tech is right now? It was touted as the next greatest thing years ago. From what I remember, H2 combines with O2, generating electricity and the by product is simply H2O - water.

its fundamentally in the garbage bin for passenger cars.

You wish.

Today on Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15...

Hyundai

https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/eco/nexo/beca...

South Korea Hydrogen Road Map

https://www.iea.org/policies/6566-korea-hydrogen-e...

"The goal of Korean government plans to foster an increase in the number of hydrogen powered cars from
2,000 in 2018, 4,000 in 2019 to 6.2 million by 2040 and make the country the No. 1 producer of hydrogen
powered cars and fuel cells globally by 2030"

Edited by jsf on Thursday 16th July 01:40

In the UK, there is a bigger hurdle to overcome in establishing an infrastructure for hydrogen transportation. This technology is more suitable for heavy freight and public transportation so this would be a more viable option in the UK.

However, outside of the UK a lot is happening. To further add to what jsf says above:

https://eda.ac.ae/docs/default-source/Publications...
Hydrogen to become gamechanger as large-scale source of cleaner power, reveals GlobalData

https://eda.ac.ae/docs/default-source/Publications...
In the Middle East, they see this technology as a way forward to meet emissions.

https://www.gasworld.com/chinas-development-of-hyd...
China is investing heavily to support hydrogen fuel cell technology

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights...
China looking to subsidies cheaper technology for a hydrogen roadmap

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/c6e9lu...
$17billion invested in one company in China

However, a lot of the hydrogen production is likely to come from non-renewable sources in China but they have an abundance of it. This year, the legislation tightened on high sulphur fuels used for shipping transportation. This has led to processes for alternative uses of such fuels. Gasification technology with carbon capture is the big thing and (again!) China is leading the way.

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/midst...
Legislation restricting high sulphur fuels becomes a disruptor. Alternative uses considered and one of them is to make hydrogen.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/109164...
Gasification process to produce hydrogen and carbon capture.

[anonymous-user]

Bagzie88 said:

Company director you say? Would you say you where powerfully built aswell? Have you been known to spontaneously show up at landings to dominate them?

You rang?

[otolith]

leef44 said:

otolith said:

RobM77 said:

Why is that?

Thermodynamics.

If you start with renewable energy, electrolyse water, compress, transport, put through a fuel cell to charge a small battery to turn the wheels - you end up with about 1/3 the miles you’d have got by putting the energy straight into a big battery.

And at the end of the day, all you get is an electric car that’s slower, less efficient, more expensive and less convenient to charge than a battery one. The only advantage is that it refills quicker than current batteries charge, but you have to drive to a special shop to do so, you can’t just plug it in where you park.

It's not necessarily "less convenient to charge than a battery one". It's like filling a car with petrol/diesel. You have to go to a fuel station.

If you live in a flat in a city with congestion charging and no source of plugging in then a filling station is more convenient and a hydrogen car would serve that purpose.

Your car still has to be parked somewhere, doing nothing, 90% of the time. Kerbside and destination charging are expanding. The only reason having to drive to a special petrol shop to fill up every few hundred miles doesn't seem like an imposition is that we've always done it. Once people get used to not having to do that, they won't want to go back.

There may be some people in the situation you describe, who are rich enough to buy a hydrogen electric car which is much more expensive to buy and run than a battery electric car, yet can't afford secure parking. I think most people in the sort of situation you describe (basically some bits of inner London) already use public transport.

[Terminator X]

otolith said:

leef44 said:

otolith said:

RobM77 said:

Why is that?

Thermodynamics.

If you start with renewable energy, electrolyse water, compress, transport, put through a fuel cell to charge a small battery to turn the wheels - you end up with about 1/3 the miles you’d have got by putting the energy straight into a big battery.

And at the end of the day, all you get is an electric car that’s slower, less efficient, more expensive and less convenient to charge than a battery one. The only advantage is that it refills quicker than current batteries charge, but you have to drive to a special shop to do so, you can’t just plug it in where you park.

It's not necessarily "less convenient to charge than a battery one". It's like filling a car with petrol/diesel. You have to go to a fuel station.

If you live in a flat in a city with congestion charging and no source of plugging in then a filling station is more convenient and a hydrogen car would serve that purpose.

Your car still has to be parked somewhere, doing nothing, 90% of the time. Kerbside and destination charging are expanding. The only reason having to drive to a special petrol shop to fill up every few hundred miles doesn't seem like an imposition is that we've always done it. Once people get used to not having to do that, they won't want to go back.

There may be some people in the situation you describe, who are rich enough to buy a hydrogen electric car which is much more expensive to buy and run than a battery electric car, yet can't afford secure parking. I think most people in the sort of situation you describe (basically some bits of inner London) already use public transport.

EV started really expensive and now is just expensive so surely hydrogen no different and just at an earlier development stage vs EV?

TX.

PS for the pedants pls don't pile in on me re hydrogen is still EV etc.

[otolith]

Terminator X said:

EV started really expensive and now is just expensive so surely hydrogen no different and just at an earlier development stage vs EV?

TX.

PS for the pedants pls don't pile in on me re hydrogen is still EV etc.

Battery EVs are getting cheaper as they get mass produced. Niche hydrogen cars will remain expensive.

Powering a car with renewably produced hydrogen is always going to be much more expensive than using renewable energy directly because it is so inefficient.

[kambites]

Honeywell said:

Nor does the planet have enough lithium.

Whereas the platinum used as a catalyst in fuel cells can be found littering every street corner?

I can see the case for hydrogen in haulage and heavy industry. For mass personal transport though? It's certainly not going to happen in my lifetime.

Edited by kambites on Thursday 16th July 11:41

[anonymous-user]

For the final time


HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS CARS HAVE A BATTERY!!!



you can't have a pure fuel cell car, because the cell is both too slow to respond (0-60 in 75 seconds anyone?) and without a battery to supply the peakloads the fuel cell would have to be enourous (a typical passenger car HFC is only around 20 bhp, the battery does the other 200 ish!!). And of course because a fuel cell is mono-directional (it does not make more hydrogen if you feed 'lecy back into it) then if you want regen, ie to be able to recapture the kinetic energy stored in the mass of the car, then you need a battery. And if you want to be able to capture as much energy as possible (which you do for the lowest overall energy consumption) then that battery needs to be capable of absorbing high peak power, and your electric traction system (inverter/motor) needs to be big and powerful too.

So now with have a car, which have everything the that a BEV has, but instead of just making the battery a bit bigger (which is easy, beacause it's just fitting more of something you already have to make, meaning that thing actually gets cheaper per unit (economies of scale), you have to fit complex storage systems, the fuel cell, exhaust pipes, cell preheaters and all sorts of complex mumbo-jumbo, just to get 20 bhp?

That not only makes no financial sense, it's technologically stupid, and relies on a non-existant network of hydrogen filling stations. Given that if you own a car, it IS parked somewhere (maybe not on or outside your house, but it must be somewhere within walking distance of your house), and given that the electricity network is EVERYWHERE, it's going to be both cheaper, easier, more convient, cleaner (environmentally speaking) to find a way of putting chargers near parking spaces, than to turn to some mythical hydrogen based system for pasenger cars


(the thing you also don't hear much about it HFCV in low temepratures, ie below zero when the "exhaust" from the cell is PURE water. Shouldn't take a lot to see what the problem is..........)

[anonymous-user]

Honeywell said:

Y

Batteries will never have the energy density needed.

Never?

you seem very confident. Are you a battery chemisty researcher? Do you have you a degree in electro-chemical sciences?

Let me provide a more balance and factual assessment:

Todays a raw electro-chemical cell has an energy density of around 250 wh/kg.

The potential (sic) of the cell in terms of energy density is actually easy to calculate because it depends on the density and valency of the elements used to make up that cell. The lower density, the higher reactivity of the element, the higher the theoretical energy density. Unfortunately, combinations that could provide the highest possible energy density are currently impractical for volume manufacturer (which is what matters. Getting something to work small scale on a bench is fine, and a necessary first step, but useless until a volume production method can be devised and optimised)

The highest possible theoretical energy density, using hydrogen as one of the elements is approximately ten times what we see today for the current Lithium cells, ie around 2,500 wh/kg. Current predictions put a practical level of energy density within the next 10 years as being around 3 times the current level, approx 750 wh/kg.

What would that mean to an EV of today:

Tesla model 3 with 75kWH battery. battery mass = 450 kg, vehicle kerb weight = 1850 kg


So, with the ultimate possible 10x increase in battery denergy density

battery = 65kg (not all the battery is cells), vehicle mass = 1465kg


But even with just a 3 times reduction

battery = 165kg, vehicle = 1565

That's a very significant mass and battery size reduction. I think we can agree that any improvement from around 3x onwards basically removes all practical issues with a battery in an BEV.


One other possibilty that is being heavily researched is borrowing a trick from their ICE powered cousins and actually using the air they drive through as a source of energy. "air" batteries use oxygen in the air, just like an ICE does, and that means you don't need to carry that bit around in the battery, because you just pick it up as you drive. That could make a significant improvement in energy density, as air is also reasonably low density.


So whilst today, battery density is improving continously, and in fact quite linearily, the biggest issue for any competing technology is that a breakthough event for a "theoretically possible, but currently non practical" type battery chemisty could (and imo, will, at some point in time) render any other passenger car energy storage system as obsolete as the cassette tape or cathode ray tube! So, given that no hydrogen infrastructure exists, and it will cost billions to put one in place, who fancies investing £100B in something that could be obsolete tomorrow? anyone?? :-)

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 16th July 12:04

[Tempest1961]

i think the future for some of us old classic car owners is going to be electric, but it only suits certain vehicles... mainly the refined large ones, Citroen CX etc springs to mind. The rest of the folk with the sporty type escorts etc are gonna have to take a mortgage out for a tank of petrol and go burn it off on a trackday or something. It does make you wonder what the classic cars are gonna be worth, as i know several folk have them as pension pots. And then when they bring in computer guidance and Auto driving - we are all screwed.

[anonymous-user]

Tempest1961 said:

are gonna have to take a mortgage out for a tank of petrol

In the near term, as liquid fuel consumption falls, the price will also fall, as oversupply dominates. This is especially true because the supply chain for our plastics, on which the modern world runs, is intrinsically linked to that of our fuels. We cannot "turn off" a refinery if we want to keep making our plastics (should we keep using plastic is another subject entirely....) so pretty soon they are going to be giving petrol away i suspect!

[bobmedley]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/15/wo...

Big money now starting to pour into hydrogen.

Butt hurt for the BEV fanboys

[CABC]

Tempest1961 said:

i think the future for some of us old classic car owners is going to be electric, but it only suits certain vehicles... mainly the refined large ones, Citroen CX etc springs to mind. The rest of the folk with the sporty type escorts etc are gonna have to take a mortgage out for a tank of petrol and go burn it off on a trackday or something. It does make you wonder what the classic cars are gonna be worth, as i know several folk have them as pension pots. And then when they bring in computer guidance and Auto driving - we are all screwed.

vast, vast majority of these cars will be scrapped. the values will fall medium term, not rise as 'classics'.
in 2050, those few that do survive will rise in value. less to be driven, more to be stored with other 'assets'. bit like many Ferraris already. some will be electrified, but far fewer than many believe. it's expensive to do properly, to update all the car (rust, suspension, hvac etc) and leaves you with something lovely and quaint but not as good as the Zoe on the drive

[leef44]

Max_Torque said:

For the final time


HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS CARS HAVE A BATTERY!!!



you can't have a pure fuel cell car, because the cell is both too slow to respond (0-60 in 75 seconds anyone?) and without a battery to supply the peakloads the fuel cell would have to be enourous (a typical passenger car HFC is only around 20 bhp, the battery does the other 200 ish!!). And of course because a fuel cell is mono-directional (it does not make more hydrogen if you feed 'lecy back into it) then if you want regen, ie to be able to recapture the kinetic energy stored in the mass of the car, then you need a battery. And if you want to be able to capture as much energy as possible (which you do for the lowest overall energy consumption) then that battery needs to be capable of absorbing high peak power, and your electric traction system (inverter/motor) needs to be big and powerful too.

So now with have a car, which have everything the that a BEV has, but instead of just making the battery a bit bigger (which is easy, beacause it's just fitting more of something you already have to make, meaning that thing actually gets cheaper per unit (economies of scale), you have to fit complex storage systems, the fuel cell, exhaust pipes, cell preheaters and all sorts of complex mumbo-jumbo, just to get 20 bhp?

That not only makes no financial sense, it's technologically stupid, and relies on a non-existant network of hydrogen filling stations. Given that if you own a car, it IS parked somewhere (maybe not on or outside your house, but it must be somewhere within walking distance of your house), and given that the electricity network is EVERYWHERE, it's going to be both cheaper, easier, more convient, cleaner (environmentally speaking) to find a way of putting chargers near parking spaces, than to turn to some mythical hydrogen based system for pasenger cars


(the thing you also don't hear much about it HFCV in low temepratures, ie below zero when the "exhaust" from the cell is PURE water. Shouldn't take a lot to see what the problem is..........)

A bit off-topic just out of curiosity, but do HFCVs need more efficient cooling systems than BEVs?

[leef44]

I was actually surprised there is more than a few H2 refuelling stations in the UK.

No much more than a few, I hasten to add.

It appears more of a public transport thing and for a few luxury/niche passenger cars.

http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/stations/

[anonymous-user]

bobmedley said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/15/wo...

Big money now starting to pour into hydrogen.

Butt hurt for the BEV fanboys

er, but nothing like the money being invested in battery tech world wide! Investing in batteries is a win for everyone, including people developing hydrogen powered vehicles (because as i keep having to say a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle has a battery!!) but also for every other electrical device

A battery than makes an EV go twice as far, also makes you phone last twice as long (or get half as big) You smart watch doesnt need charging as much, your laptop can watch more films, work for more hours without being plugged in, your server UPS can keep the lights on longer, your wireless earphones play for longer, your house energy store can exchange more energy with the grid earning you more money etc etc

Compare that to the tiny market for a HFC passenger car that suits <1% of people (people who very soon won't even own a car, they'll just dial one up from the internet when they need one.....)

66 BILLION:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15...

4 BILLION:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/20/u...

1.6 BILLION:
https://electrek.co/2020/06/17/tesla-new-deal-pana...

19 BILLION
https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainmartin/2020/04/09...

2.3 BILLION
https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/05/gm-lg-chem-to-in...

the list is endless, just type "battery investment" into google and sit back and wonder at the simply vast sums of money being spent in this arena!