Electric cars, does everyone really think they are amazing.
Discussion
Smiljan said:
I understand currently they are strong, I'm thinking longer term. Zoe and Leaf prices are strong currently as there aren't many 2nd hand EV's around and there isn't any competition to rival them.
Give it a few years and an early Zoe or Leaf will be worthless. The new Leaf is a real financial gamble now if you're buying with your own money.
Clearly it is crystal ball gazing, but I don't agree. Surely as EV get more popular, the relative low supply of leafs etc will mean demand will outst trip supply and keep prices high. Give it a few years and an early Zoe or Leaf will be worthless. The new Leaf is a real financial gamble now if you're buying with your own money.
Your hunch goes totally counter to supply and demand
Lorne said:
Edit: I'm sorry, but only september and october for one year?
Another pretty graph of Europe wide windpower then. A different year and 12 months. Still huge peaks and troughs.
Or a pretty graph comparing wind in one country, Spain with wind in 9 countries. Pretty similar peaks and troughs.
http://euanmearns.com/wind-blowing-nowhere/
So either wind isn't reliable enough for covering base generation or needs a vast amount of expense to build over capacity of wind. Which in the current system already has wind farms being paid not to generate.
Wind subsidy heading for £265 per household by 2021.
"According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the cost of subsidising renewable power this year will amount to £6.0bn. Of this, the Committee on Climate Change estimate that £3.1bn will go to wind farms.
By 2021, subsidies for wind will have increased to £7.1bn, as capacity grows. This equates to £265 per household."
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017...
covmutley said:
Clearly it is crystal ball gazing, but I don't agree. Surely as EV get more popular, the relative low supply of leafs etc will mean demand will outst trip supply and keep prices high.
Your hunch goes totally counter to supply and demand
I’m probably not getting across what I mean. In my crystal ball the current crop of EVs will be so inferior to the new breed that no one will want them. Hence the prices of those older EVs will plummet.Your hunch goes totally counter to supply and demand
Smiljan said:
I’m probably not getting across what I mean. In my crystal ball the current crop of EVs will be so inferior to the new breed that no one will want them. Hence the prices of those older EVs will plummet.
To some extent yeah. I don't think they will plummet but certainly will start to drop when supply of new longer range cheaper cars happen. But that's not looking like it's going to be a huge rush there just isn't the manufacturing capacity.
Imagine what is going to happen to used ice prices..
Smiljan said:
covmutley said:
Clearly it is crystal ball gazing, but I don't agree. Surely as EV get more popular, the relative low supply of leafs etc will mean demand will outst trip supply and keep prices high.
Your hunch goes totally counter to supply and demand
I’m probably not getting across what I mean. In my crystal ball the current crop of EVs will be so inferior to the new breed that no one will want them. Hence the prices of those older EVs will plummet.Your hunch goes totally counter to supply and demand
my 'little battery' i3 does o-60 in sub 7 seconds, and returns the equivalent of about 100 mpg on a typical run. Ok, it can only go 70 miles in winter and 100 in summer, but the average commute is less than 20 miles. In my little close of houses, i actually have the longest daily commute of 35 miles, everyone else does less miles per day than i do.
for a vast number of people (not everyone of course) a large range is actually not that useful. As EV become more popular, car sharing, and hiring will become more normal, so when you want to drive to scotland, you just hire a diesel for the job.
Yep, longer term - 10 years and on I wouldn’t want to be left holding a diesel car. For a while though there will probably be some real bargains so long as we are prepared to keep hold of them long term.
The Model 3 will be another interesting crystal ball guess, when there are hundreds of thousands of them around and the novelty has worn off I wonder how the values will hold up?
The Model 3 will be another interesting crystal ball guess, when there are hundreds of thousands of them around and the novelty has worn off I wonder how the values will hold up?
Max_Torque said:
define "inferior"?
Well for less than the i3 costs here you can get a 64kwh Kona electric.with 500km range and 0-60 of similar kinds of numbers, with more room etc. For less money.I expect if you buy an iPace, etron, EQC in the next year or so you will be bale to buy a similar performing VW/Hyundai/Nissan or whatever for 2/3rds the cost within a couple of years.
There will be a general fall of EV costs over the next 5-7 years which will mean those buying now will pay more for a similar car than later.
Smiljan said:
The Model 3 will be another interesting crystal ball guess, when there are hundreds of thousands of them around and the novelty has worn off I wonder how the values will hold up?
Model S is doing fine and the model 3 is predicted to be best in class.https://3fev.com/2018/07/17/how-do-teslas-deprecia...
They are built to do more miles and last far longer than a typical ICE so when buying a used one its not like it has much less life left than a new one.
Maybe, I’m not so sure that extrapolating Model S depreciation as they’ve done gives us the right prediction though.
Model 3 numbers in 2,3,4 years will be huge if sales continue as is. An abundance of choice might mean prices are lower second hand. The car might last but people get bored of cars easily and often just fancy a change.
Model 3 numbers in 2,3,4 years will be huge if sales continue as is. An abundance of choice might mean prices are lower second hand. The car might last but people get bored of cars easily and often just fancy a change.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
irc said:
Lorne said:
Edit: I'm sorry, but only september and october for one year?
Another pretty graph of Europe wide windpower then. A different year and 12 months. Still huge peaks and troughs.What relevance has this to the discussion ?
Edit: I notice the pretty graphs come from that bastion of unbiased reporting, The Oil Drum Blog.
Edited by Lorne on Wednesday 26th September 09:10
SimonYorkshire said:
Diesels are becoming less popular, not many people want an EV... Let me tell you - Demand for LPG conversions is going through the roof.
There are around 100,000 LPG vehicles in the UK, increasing at around 4000 per annum.Edited by SimonYorkshire on Tuesday 25th September 20:04
By 2020, there will be around 1 million EVs on the UK roads.
Given that your maths is far superior to anyone else's on this thread, could you tell me which one is more popular?
RJG46 said:
Where are you getting this s
t about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?
.
um..t about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/102510/petr...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/petrol-a...
https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-going-car-f...
GT119 said:
SimonYorkshire said:
Diesels are becoming less popular, not many people want an EV... Let me tell you - Demand for LPG conversions is going through the roof.
There are around 100,000 LPG vehicles in the UK, increasing at around 4000 per annum.Edited by SimonYorkshire on Tuesday 25th September 20:04
By 2020, there will be around 1 million EVs on the UK roads.
Given that your maths is far superior to anyone else's on this thread, could you tell me which one is more popular?
Some of those million EVs in 2020 will be hybrids that are also converted to run on LPG., again you won't know how many.
None fuel type you listed is the most popular, the most popular are diesel / petrol.
I can tell you which type is least convenient - Pure EVs are least convenient.
Max_Torque said:
my 'little battery' i3 does o-60 in sub 7 seconds, and returns the equivalent of about 100 mpg on a typical run. Ok, it can only go 70 miles in winter and 100 in summer, but the average commute is less than 20 miles. In my little close of houses, i actually have the longest daily commute of 35 miles, everyone else does less miles per day than i do.
for a vast number of people (not everyone of course) a large range is actually not that useful. As EV become more popular, car sharing, and hiring will become more normal, so when you want to drive to scotland, you just hire a diesel for the job.
Others will think to themselves - In winter, then, if you couldn't charge at work you'd only just make it to work and back on a single charge and then when back at home you wouldn't have the use of the car because it will need to charge.for a vast number of people (not everyone of course) a large range is actually not that useful. As EV become more popular, car sharing, and hiring will become more normal, so when you want to drive to scotland, you just hire a diesel for the job.
How do you calculate 100mpg for a car that doesn't use any gallons.. Because you know how much it costs to charge and know how many gallons of petrol you could buy for the same money.
From my point of view if you say your car does the equivalent of petrol 100mpg, this is my equivalent of 50mpg because I only pay half as much for 'petrol' because I run on LPG.
There's a very wide range of petrol powered cars that will do 50mpg on LPG (equivalent running cost of petrol 100mpg and equivalent running cost of your EV) that don't have any of your EV drawbacks / inconveniences. Could have any of this wide range of cars running on LPG and go for a trip to Scotland (or just a longer trip out in the car, perhaps spur of the moment day trip on a Sunday morning when most car hire firms are closed) in without having to bother hiring a different car and without any range / speed / heater / aircon anxieties.
If 'range is not that useful' (because people don't drive far in their cars) then why is cost per mile important anyway? I went to school with a guy who became a painter and decorator, he doesn't make much money and only works in the local area so might only use his works van 5 miles per day. However, his 'works van' is an old V8 powered P38 Rangerover which gets only around 13mpg locally... But he's not bothered because running this 'works van' only costs him 2 gallons of fuel, say £12 per week. When he actually does want economy is when he goes for a trip to the coast and might cover 200 miles.. But he has a diesel Corsa that's worth maybe £1000. What would you advise him? If you told him to sell the 'works van' he'd laugh.. he runs a P38 as a works van because he likes P38s and £12 per week hardly breaks the bank. If you told him to sell the Corsa and buy an EV he'd laugh. Your EV would be a severe inconvenience on weekends when he wants to enjoy a drive out and in any case you'd advise him to hire a diesel for such occasions (which are regular).
.£12 per week for fuel for the Rangerover that does 13 mpg. It would only be £12 per week for fuel if he had a car that did 26mpg and he commuted 10 miles per day, or £12 per week for fuel in a car that does 52mpg commuting 20 miles per day. Or £12 per week for fuel if the car does 52mpg on LPG and the commute is 40 miles per day. All without any of the hassles and range anxiety of EV ownership and all without having to pay out the money for an EV and suffer it's depreciation which is another running cost that could be put towards fuel for something he'd rather own like a V8. .
PixelpeepS3 said:
RJG46 said:
Where are you getting this st about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?
.
um..t about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/102510/petr...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/petrol-a...
https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-going-car-f...
Paris introduced a vignette system, all vehicles in the city must show a vignette. Vignettes denote the emissions type / rating of the vehicle and go from grade 1 (pure EV) to grade 5 (old dirty diesels). The higher the grade, at certain times of day the less likely you are to be allowed to take the vehicle into the city (or at least close to city centre) and/or the less likely you are to be able to take the car in at all (grade 5). Another of my mates also has a V8 powered P38 Rangerover (but this is a nice example), normally a P38 would be grade 4 but because it's converted to LPG it becomes a grade 2... which is the same classification as a little very modern hybrid car, he can take that P38 into the city at any time of day without paying any charges. And obviously he never has to worry about range anxiety or depreciation, his P38 actually has double the range of a standard P38 because it has the original petrol tank plus an LPG tank. This mate is always driving around Europe usually towing a trailer that weighs about a ton with a car on the trailer that weighs maybe another ton an a half. He might be looking at swapping his P38 for a more modern tow-car... Not that he'd ever buy an EV (for any purpose) but can anyone suggest an EV that could do the job and not see him needing to recharge for several hours every 50 miles (not that he'd find a charger every 50 miles)?
Edited by SimonYorkshire on Wednesday 26th September 11:24
Range anxiety really isn't a thing, based on my 12 months of Tesla ownership. It'll do almost 300 miles to a 'tank' and recharge to 200 in under 20 minutes - no idea where the 'sitting about for hours waiting for it to charge' bit comes from other than out of peoples' bottoms. It really isn't an issue. As stated above, where it really does a great job is the fact it's fully charged every morning - though we very rarely cover 300 miles in a stint anyway and I'd imagine very few of us do. The average commute in the UK is 8.5 miles - 17 per day. EVs are perfect for this sort of usage, however, the infrastructure is there NOW to support longer journeys.
It never ceases to amaze me that those of us who *OWN* and *DRIVE* and *HAVE EXPERIENCE OF* electric vehicles are saying they work, yet there is a select group who are absolutely obsessed with telling us how inconvenient our lives are and how our EVs don't work for us, when the fact is they are a huge convenience because you almost never need to do anything bar plug it in at home when you park up. Vampiric battery drain isn't an issue (minuscule), nor is charger availability or duration when out and about, and the infrastructure is growing every day so will only get better and better. I know several Tesla owners who are already on their second Tesla, so awful is the ownership experience.
I do accept that the early adopters do face the risk of being Betamax buyers, however, given how good the vehicles are NOW, I don't really see it myself, even if better EVs appear in the future (which they almost certainly will). I've got a big, fast, well-equipped family bus - it will always be precisely that even if better big, fast family buses become available. We did initially discuss leasing or PCPing our Tesla for precisely this reason, but by the time you'd done the maths over four years, it only needs to be worth £20k at four years old to break even, and I'm confident it will be (even if just for the batteries and motors). If it's not worth anything when I come to replace, it's not, so be it - cars are rarely an investment. Early adopters like us may pay over the odds, but it means that the technology gets bedded in and filters down to everyone else. I'm not a greeny, I simply wanted a six-seater that was fast enough and not abysmal in every regard like most people carries are. I've got one and I'm very happy with it. It isn't perfect, but very few cars are.
They said the same when people suggested replacing horses....
It never ceases to amaze me that those of us who *OWN* and *DRIVE* and *HAVE EXPERIENCE OF* electric vehicles are saying they work, yet there is a select group who are absolutely obsessed with telling us how inconvenient our lives are and how our EVs don't work for us, when the fact is they are a huge convenience because you almost never need to do anything bar plug it in at home when you park up. Vampiric battery drain isn't an issue (minuscule), nor is charger availability or duration when out and about, and the infrastructure is growing every day so will only get better and better. I know several Tesla owners who are already on their second Tesla, so awful is the ownership experience.
I do accept that the early adopters do face the risk of being Betamax buyers, however, given how good the vehicles are NOW, I don't really see it myself, even if better EVs appear in the future (which they almost certainly will). I've got a big, fast, well-equipped family bus - it will always be precisely that even if better big, fast family buses become available. We did initially discuss leasing or PCPing our Tesla for precisely this reason, but by the time you'd done the maths over four years, it only needs to be worth £20k at four years old to break even, and I'm confident it will be (even if just for the batteries and motors). If it's not worth anything when I come to replace, it's not, so be it - cars are rarely an investment. Early adopters like us may pay over the odds, but it means that the technology gets bedded in and filters down to everyone else. I'm not a greeny, I simply wanted a six-seater that was fast enough and not abysmal in every regard like most people carries are. I've got one and I'm very happy with it. It isn't perfect, but very few cars are.
They said the same when people suggested replacing horses....
SimonYorkshire said:
PixelpeepS3 said:
RJG46 said:
Where are you getting this st about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?
.
um..t about ICE cars being banned from City Centres?.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/102510/petr...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/petrol-a...
https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-going-car-f...
Paris introduced a vignette system, all vehicles in the city must show a vignette. Vignettes denote the emissions type / rating of the vehicle and go from grade 1 (pure EV) to grade 5 (old dirty diesels). The higher the grade, at certain times of day the less likely you are to be allowed to take the vehicle into the city (or at least close to city centre) and/or the less likely you are to be able to take the car in at all (grade 5). Another of my mates also has a V8 powered P38 Rangerover (but this is a nice example), normally a P38 would be grade 4 but because it's converted to LPG it becomes a grade 2... which is the same classification as a little very modern hybrid car, he can take that P38 into the city at any time of day without paying any charges. And obviously he never has to worry about range anxiety or depreciation, his P38 actually has double the range of a standard P38 because it has the original petrol tank plus an LPG tank. This mate is always driving around Europe usually towing a trailer that weighs about a ton with a car on the trailer that weighs maybe another ton an a half. He might be looking at swapping his P38 for a more modern tow-car... Not that he'd ever buy an EV (for any purpose) but can anyone suggest an EV that could do the job and not see him needing to recharge for several hours every 50 miles (not that he'd find a charger every 50 miles)?
Edited by SimonYorkshire on Wednesday 26th September 11:24
t because it's been covered. What i will comment on is that whole response is based on 'if london follows paris'
We may well not follow Paris. In fact, if we look at facts that are available;
Oxfordshire County Council said:
In October, a joint proposal from Oxfordshire County Council and Oxford City Council set out their intention to create the world’s first zero-emission zone (ZEZ) from 2020.
If agree with one poster flagging that if winter commute only has just enough to get home on a cold day /when charge at work isn’t possible then that would be at best stressful worst stranded. Not sure how much of an issue that is or how often.
LPG I don’t know a single garage where I live that sells LPG nor on the commute I do have I ever seen it(and oddly enough I do look out for such things). As such to me vs a garage 0.5miles away trying to use LPG wouldn’t work. We also need a big boot and all our cars do not have a tyre well so yes it would suck space.
LPG I don’t know a single garage where I live that sells LPG nor on the commute I do have I ever seen it(and oddly enough I do look out for such things). As such to me vs a garage 0.5miles away trying to use LPG wouldn’t work. We also need a big boot and all our cars do not have a tyre well so yes it would suck space.
SimonYorkshire said:
Not that he'd ever buy an EV (for any purpose) but can anyone suggest an EV that could do the job and not see him needing to recharge for several hours every 50 miles (not that he'd find a charger every 50 miles)?
Model XEdited by SimonYorkshire on Wednesday 26th September 11:24
https://electrek.co/2016/03/21/tesla-drag-race-alf...
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