Hydrogen availability

Author
Discussion

kambites

68,174 posts

226 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.

GT911

7,299 posts

177 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?

Volvolover

2,036 posts

46 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
GT911 said:
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?
Nobody will be running a 10 year old car for high work mileage will they?

GT911

7,299 posts

177 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
GT911 said:
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?
Nobody will be running a 10 year old car for high work mileage will they?
Probably not, but I wasn’t necessarily singling out those users.
I believe there will be a viable and very cost effective electric option for those users within 15 years.
Which to me makes the hydrogen passenger car option a white elephant in 2040.

Volvolover

2,036 posts

46 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
GT911 said:
Volvolover said:
GT911 said:
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?
Nobody will be running a 10 year old car for high work mileage will they?
Probably not, but I wasn’t necessarily singling out those users.
I believe there will be a viable and very cost effective electric option for those users within 15 years.
Which to me makes the hydrogen passenger car option a white elephant in 2040.
Theres an 'awful' lot of money being invested in what is such a clear white elephant, perhaps its only so clear to you?

98elise

27,711 posts

166 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
GT911 said:
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?
Nobody will be running a 10 year old car for high work mileage will they?
Why not? I ​don't remember the last time I owned a car under 10 years old.

When I was doing 30-40k a year I made a point of driving old cars to avoid massive depreciation. My last one was a 2008 Saab with leather trim, cruise control, dual zone climate control, 6 CD changer etc.

kambites

68,174 posts

226 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
GT911 said:
I believe there will be a viable and very cost effective electric option for those users within 15 years.
Well that's the big question isn't it?

GT911

7,299 posts

177 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
Theres an 'awful' lot of money being invested in what is such a clear white elephant, perhaps its only so clear to you?
Plenty of investments have turned out to be white elephants. There are other reasons for investing money other than to develop commercial products and services, e.g. R&D tax credits.
And remember, I said passenger cars.
I’m a big fan of hydrogen for non privately owned larger vehicles, vessels and airframes.

LasseV

1,758 posts

138 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Thank you sir.

This is extremely informative post.

98elise

27,711 posts

166 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
GT911 said:
Volvolover said:
GT911 said:
kambites said:
GT911 said:
Yeah, to me it has the feel of 'LPG revisited'. Except this time there are no running cost savings....
The difference being that petrol and diesel will quickly cease to be an option.
Not really relevant though, the comparison is:
LPG vs liquid fuels.
Hydrogen vs EV.

In any case do you not think it will be possible to run a petrol car through to 2040?
Nobody will be running a 10 year old car for high work mileage will they?
Probably not, but I wasn’t necessarily singling out those users.
I believe there will be a viable and very cost effective electric option for those users within 15 years.
Which to me makes the hydrogen passenger car option a white elephant in 2040.
Theres an 'awful' lot of money being invested in what is such a clear white elephant, perhaps its only so clear to you?
5 years ago Toyota had a target of 30,000 Mirai sales a year by 2020. They sell about 1/20th of that. Sales targets for the next ten years are very low.

if you do buy one your 60k investment turns into 10k in 3 years. That's horrific depreciation.

Money is being invested by a few companies but it's not reaping any reward. Manufacturers are losing money hand over fist, and so are buyers.



Volvolover

2,036 posts

46 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
GT911 said:
Volvolover said:
Theres an 'awful' lot of money being invested in what is such a clear white elephant, perhaps its only so clear to you?
Plenty of investments have turned out to be white elephants. There are other reasons for investing money other than to develop commercial products and services, e.g. R&D tax credits.
And remember, I said passenger cars.
I’m a big fan of hydrogen for non privately owned larger vehicles, vessels and airframes.
I'm pretty certain a few companies will decide to play their tax that way, but they still have to commit the cash, and that has an opportunity cost as you're aware.

I'd be perfectly happy if BEV solves all the problems and Hydrogen goes away for passenger cars but all things considered i'm fairly certain that in 2040 if i want to buy a long range hydrogen passenger car i'm going to be able to, and i'll be able to use it. I think it would be a small % of the UK market, more in other markets but nevertheless I think that's how it will be for reasons given, what actually happens remains to be seen and none of us know that, although what I do know for (RSCOTTS benefit lolololol) is that the green energy surplus will only get bigger and green hydrogen will have a number of uses .





kambites

68,174 posts

226 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
... but all things considered i'm fairly certain that in 2040 if i want to buy a long range hydrogen passenger car i'm going to be able to, and i'll be able to use it. I think it would be a small % of the UK market...
That's my take on it too. My gut feeling is that things will ultimately settle down with HFCEVs holding a single figures but non zero percentage of the personal transport market. If I had to guess a figure I'd say maybe 1-5% of the market with a total cost of ownership of somewhere around 2-5 times that of a BEV.

GT911

7,299 posts

177 months

Monday 26th July 2021
quotequote all
kambites said:
Volvolover said:
... but all things considered i'm fairly certain that in 2040 if i want to buy a long range hydrogen passenger car i'm going to be able to, and i'll be able to use it. I think it would be a small % of the UK market...
That's my take on it too. My gut feeling is that things will ultimately settle down with HFCEVs holding a single figures but non zero percentage of the personal transport market. If I had to guess a figure I'd say maybe 1-5% of the market with a total cost of ownership of somewhere around 2-5 times that of a BEV.
I can’t say I disagree with any of that. Maybe it’s just our definitions of white elephant that differ. The wiki definition of white elephant nails exactly what I was referring to.

Mikehig

777 posts

66 months

Thursday 29th July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover: "although what I do know is that the green energy surplus will only get bigger"

You made that assertion a few pages back. I commented that, for a number of reasons, a genuine surplus seems unlikely any time soon.
Do you have any factual basis for that view or is it just wishful thinking?

Furthermore, even if such a surplus does arise at some point years from now, there will be major difficulties in making use of it because the majority of renewable generation is very diffuse and often remote.
How will those difficulties be overcome?

Volvolover

2,036 posts

46 months

Thursday 29th July 2021
quotequote all
Mikehig said:
Volvolover: "although what I do know is that the green energy surplus will only get bigger"

You made that assertion a few pages back. I commented that, for a number of reasons, a genuine surplus seems unlikely any time soon.
Do you have any factual basis for that view or is it just wishful thinking?

Furthermore, even if such a surplus does arise at some point years from now, there will be major difficulties in making use of it because the majority of renewable generation is very diffuse and often remote.
How will those difficulties be overcome?
https://physicsworld.com/a/too-much-of-a-good-thing-an-excess-of-uk-renewables/

Cheers

dvs_dave

8,946 posts

230 months

Saturday 31st July 2021
quotequote all
Volvolover said:
Mikehig said:
Volvolover: "although what I do know is that the green energy surplus will only get bigger"

You made that assertion a few pages back. I commented that, for a number of reasons, a genuine surplus seems unlikely any time soon.
Do you have any factual basis for that view or is it just wishful thinking?

Furthermore, even if such a surplus does arise at some point years from now, there will be major difficulties in making use of it because the majority of renewable generation is very diffuse and often remote.
How will those difficulties be overcome?
https://physicsworld.com/a/too-much-of-a-good-thin...

Cheers
That’s nothing factual. More of a hastily googled opinion piece from 2018 about what might happen. It’s also from a perspective without any consideration for the upcoming ICE ban and the consequent huge ramp up of BEV numbers. And with that the vehicle-to-grid storage options that opens up, as well as the other changes that are now necessary to the power generation (and storage) infrastructure.

rscott

15,183 posts

196 months

Thursday 5th August 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
So the hydrogen tank is a structural part of the car - that'll be easy to replace in 10 years time!

Gary C

12,972 posts

184 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]

wisbech

3,052 posts

126 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
I guess it depends on if they certify the tank as life limited or cycles limited (or mixture of both - i.e. X cycles or Y years, which ever comes first)

98elise

27,711 posts

166 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hydrogen tanks have a fixed life before they need to be replaced.