EVs - have they got it all wrong?

[TheDeuce]

CheesecakeRunner said:

DonkeyApple said:

CheesecakeRunner said:

I paid no more for my electric car than I did for my previous ICE car that was comparable in size and range.

That bit is a little disingenuous.

Not totally, I deliberately wrote “my previous ICE car” rather than “an ICE car”.

My current car is a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance. It cost £57500.

My old car was a 2018 3l supercharged Jaguar XF, it cost £56000 after discounts, I then paid three years VED. It would do around 350-400 miles to a tank open my usual driving, and cost £80-90 to fill depending on vendor. It had less interior space than the Model 3, albeit it a slightly larger boot. That can be traded off against the Model 3 having a frunk. The Jaguar was quick, but the Model 3 blows it out of the water. Both cars have roughly the same equipment.

I think that's fair enough as a comparison.

At the upper end of the market, sports/luxury cars £60k+ (new) EV actually does compare very well to ICE. Still a little more expensive but also typically quicker and always less costly to run.

And as per my example above, at the opposite, budget end of the market, the same is true of small town cars.

It's the fat middle part of the market where cost compares less well. It remains the case that £25k buys a very competent and we'll specced golf but isn't nearly enough to get the same level of car in EV land.

[DonkeyApple]

CheesecakeRunner said:

DonkeyApple said:

CheesecakeRunner said:

I paid no more for my electric car than I did for my previous ICE car that was comparable in size and range.

That bit is a little disingenuous.

Not totally, I deliberately wrote “my previous ICE car” rather than “an ICE car”.

My current car is a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance. It cost £57500.

My old car was a 2018 3l supercharged Jaguar XF, it cost £56000 after discounts, I then paid three years VED. It would do around 350-400 miles to a tank open my usual driving, and cost £80-90 to fill depending on vendor. It had less interior space than the Model 3, albeit it a slightly larger boot. That can be traded off against the Model 3 having a frunk. The Jaguar was quick, but the Model 3 blows it out of the water. Both cars have roughly the same equipment.

Yup. But this little bit of the thread is generally talking about the least affluent of the car owning end of the market so discussing switching from one £60k car to another isn't particularly pertinent.

[DonkeyApple]

TheDeuce said:

Depends how cheap, cheap is. For £150 a month a new EV can be leased and then for most people's mileage will cost just about bugger all to run. So little to run in fact it will go a long way to covering the cost of the monthly payment.

There would be a deposit of approx £900 too, but that's cheaper than buying even a very old ICE car these days. Not to mention that such an old/cheap ICE is at some point going to spring a surprise repair bill.

And of course, no road tax.

I think if I started out with £10k for all costs related to paying for and running a car for three years, I'd have more left at the end if I opted for the cheap new EV as opposed to the cheap, ancient ICE shed.

Yup but £150/month leases are nothing new yet we can see that it is not the favoured route for the less affluent. There must be something that is preventing a low income individual from taking out a lease on a brand new and quite valuable vehicle?

Also, it's a little difficult to see the true cost of for ever paying front end depreciation on new cars versus buying used cars where their depreciation is close to zero until their final write off.

However, the economics of used EVs is almost certainly going to be really quite different to used ICE, plus manufacturers are making a seismic change in how long they retain their cars on their balance sheets.

By 2035 it is going to look different.

[TheDeuce]

DonkeyApple said:

TheDeuce said:

Depends how cheap, cheap is. For £150 a month a new EV can be leased and then for most people's mileage will cost just about bugger all to run. So little to run in fact it will go a long way to covering the cost of the monthly payment.

There would be a deposit of approx £900 too, but that's cheaper than buying even a very old ICE car these days. Not to mention that such an old/cheap ICE is at some point going to spring a surprise repair bill.

And of course, no road tax.

I think if I started out with £10k for all costs related to paying for and running a car for three years, I'd have more left at the end if I opted for the cheap new EV as opposed to the cheap, ancient ICE shed.

Yup but £150/month leases are nothing new yet we can see that it is not the favoured route for the less affluent. There must be something that is preventing a low income individual from taking out a lease on a brand new and quite valuable vehicle?

Also, it's a little difficult to see the true cost of for ever paying front end depreciation on new cars versus buying used cars where their depreciation is close to zero until their final write off.

However, the economics of used EVs is almost certainly going to be really quite different to used ICE, plus manufacturers are making a seismic change in how long they retain their cars on their balance sheets.

By 2035 it is going to look different.

No all low income individuals have a poor credit rating. Even a mediocre rating would secure a lease on a sub 20k car anyway. I'm not denying many do have a piss poor credit rating and that makes it difficult for them to be financially efficient in many ways - but it's ultimately up to the individual if they want to accept that forever more or sort it out.

As for depreciation of new Vs old.. sure. But in my example I also factored in far cheaper running costs, no tax and a warranty so no old car repair bills. You have looked only at depreciation... Looking at it overall I remain of the opinion that the EV is at least as cheap for a town runaround in addition to being far better value as it's a) new b) better.

[DonkeyApple]

TheDeuce said:

No all low income individuals have a poor credit rating. Even a mediocre rating would secure a lease on a sub 20k car anyway. I'm not denying many do have a piss poor credit rating and that makes it difficult for them to be financially efficient in many ways - but it's ultimately up to the individual if they want to accept that forever more or sort it out.

As for depreciation of new Vs old.. sure. But in my example I also factored in far cheaper running costs, no tax and a warranty so no old car repair bills. You have looked only at depreciation... Looking at it overall I remain of the opinion that the EV is at least as cheap for a town runaround in addition to being far better value as it's a) new b) better.

I was implying that the endless depreciation of repeated cycles of renting new would have to be considered and offset against the ongoing savings. It wasn't being ignored.

The EV is going to be at least as cheap for a town runabout, that's not the debate, the debate is where the financial intersection is. At the moment we can see clearly that for a middle income family with offstreet and more than one car that an urban runabout EV can already be clearly cheaper. The point that I am making is that you have to have a lot of numbers to hand regarding not just financials but also usuage before you can see where that ends as you head downwards.

You have to consider data such as lower incomes having a tendency to cover higher mileages. Single car households needing a larger car that is more flexible etc. The ability to put together a one off deposit payment in excess of £1000, which does fall off a cliff at a certain income point. Likelihoods of being far more dependent on a vehicle for work along with the higher levels of work transience. As well as greater void periods between jobs.

As much as anything it is the social instabilities of lower income individuals that stands in the way of endlessly leasing new cars and those cars also being hindered in their mobility by limited i tra day ranges etc.

While I don't consider not being able to charge an EV outside of one's front door to be any kind of issue at all, I do see pertinent issues for EV adoption among that section of U.K. society and how the used car rental market evolves is going to be very important. It is why new models such as Cinch and the plans of manufacturers to get involved in that space and extracting more than just two consumer debt cycles from the assets in their balance sheets is interesting.

In short, the longer term solution is the arrival of the used car lease market out to cars as old as 10 years. With EVs in theory being more durable this should be plausible. So manufacturers will evolve from the current, 2 cycles (renting from new on a 3 year lend and then another 3 year lend vai 'approved used' to incorporating the level that the likes of Cinch operate at and possibly even beyond that still by incorporating things like battery and trim refurbs.

Personally, I think that within the decade we will see manufacturers directly involved in leasing ten year old+ vehicles. There's just too much money on the table to not be aiming to cut out Cinch and the like.

So I don't think leasing new EVs is the answer and I feel that you can see in the market today that this isn't a major solution but I do think EV banger leasing is.

[LukeBrown66]

How can you not see that not being able to charge a vehicle outside your home is NOT an issue at all?

[SpeckledJim]

LukeBrown66 said:

How can you not see that not being able to charge a vehicle outside your home is NOT an issue at all?

One too many nots in there.

It IS an issue. It's just not the insurmountable issue you would love it to be. The vast majority of people simply don't drive very far. Especially true of most people who don't have off-street parking. And those people who do drive a decent amount tend to have a job. At that place of work there will be chargers, by the time they are needed.

An hour or two on a decent charger will provide most people's motoring for the whole week. That's already true with the EVs we have today. You've got 15-25 more years of frantic Chicken Lickening before it's actually really important, and by then the batteries, and the cars, and the chargers, and the networks, will all be a lot better.

You might even be able to tell your car to drive itself off to the charge park (which used to be a petrol station) in the middle of the night and come back at 0813h (precisely) when you want to go to work.

Life, uh, finds a way.

[TheDeuce]

SpeckledJim said:

LukeBrown66 said:

How can you not see that not being able to charge a vehicle outside your home is NOT an issue at all?

One too many nots in there.

It IS an issue. It's just not the insurmountable issue you would love it to be. The vast majority of people simply don't drive very far. Especially true of most people who don't have off-street parking. And those people who do drive a decent amount tend to have a job. At that place of work there will be chargers, by the time they are needed.

An hour or two on a decent charger will provide most people's motoring for the whole week. That's already true with the EVs we have today. You've got 15-25 more years of frantic Chicken Lickening before it's actually really important, and by then the batteries, and the cars, and the chargers, and the networks, will all be a lot better.

You might even be able to tell your car to drive itself off to the charge park (which used to be a petrol station) in the middle of the night and come back at 0813h (precisely) when you want to go to work.

Life, uh, finds a way.

I think it's true for virtually all people in towns and cities that they will, by the time it matters, have high speed chargers around the areas they live in and visit. I suspect there will be local government schemes in obviously high density housing areas to set aside space for chargers to be installed - using such chargers on a pay-monthly scheme is already very cheap.

For those without private parking in smaller towns and villages that don't currently have chargers or are not likely to attract charger firms to install any, then the residents will need to work with their councillors to get some installed.

I too see lots of issues along the way but none of which there isn't plenty of time to solve. It's a that those without private parking can't jump on the EV bandwagon as early and easily as they otherwise might... But that's just another of many minor frustrations in life when you live in a certain sort of property - which is what tends to make the property affordable in the first place. We all can afford what we can afford and should expect to get what we pay for.

[Lily the Pink]

TheDeuce said:

It's the fat middle part of the market where cost compares less well. It remains the case that £25k buys a very competent and we'll specced golf but isn't nearly enough to get the same level of car in EV land.

Really ? My MG5 is as competent and well specced as my wife's Golf estate.

[TheDeuce]

Lily the Pink said:

TheDeuce said:

It's the fat middle part of the market where cost compares less well. It remains the case that £25k buys a very competent and we'll specced golf but isn't nearly enough to get the same level of car in EV land.

Really ? My MG5 is as competent and well specced as my wife's Golf estate.

It's about £30k at a decent spec isn't it? A golf is less. I would also say VW is a more premium brand, which rightly or wrongly carries some value.

I've no idea what the fit/finish and materials are like in the MG5 cabin vs the golf, but evidently 'MG' are saving money somewhere as the reliability of their cars since the re-launch of the brand has not been good vs others at a similar price point.

[Lily the Pink]

TheDeuce said:

Lily the Pink said:

Really ? My MG5 is as competent and well specced as my wife's Golf estate.

It's about £30k at a decent spec isn't it? A golf is less. I would also say VW is a more premium brand, which rightly or wrongly carries some value.

I've no idea what the fit/finish and materials are like in the MG5 cabin vs the golf, but evidently 'MG' are saving money somewhere as the reliability of their cars since the re-launch of the brand has not been good vs others at a similar price point.

Golf estate starts at £25K, MG5 is from £27K. I don't know how the trim levels compare at those prices, but a well-specced Golf will likely add a lot of ££. And yes, I recognise that VW has a good(ish) rep, whereas MG has a poorer one. I'm not aware of any reliability issues with the MG, but don't see the price difference as very significant.

[off_again]

SpeckledJim said:

LukeBrown66 said:

How can you not see that not being able to charge a vehicle outside your home is NOT an issue at all?

One too many nots in there.

It IS an issue. It's just not the insurmountable issue you would love it to be. The vast majority of people simply don't drive very far. Especially true of most people who don't have off-street parking. And those people who do drive a decent amount tend to have a job. At that place of work there will be chargers, by the time they are needed.

An hour or two on a decent charger will provide most people's motoring for the whole week. That's already true with the EVs we have today. You've got 15-25 more years of frantic Chicken Lickening before it's actually really important, and by then the batteries, and the cars, and the chargers, and the networks, will all be a lot better.

You might even be able to tell your car to drive itself off to the charge park (which used to be a petrol station) in the middle of the night and come back at 0813h (precisely) when you want to go to work.

Life, uh, finds a way.

I wont underestimate the convenience of charging at home - because it is! But as mentioned, for a lot of people, a 200+ mile range is sufficient for most of a weeks worth of motoring, if not more. While I will admit that this absolutely wont fit some people, it does for a limited number today. As the public charging network improves, this is going to be less of an issue. I hope that we have charging at public transport services, shops, supermarkets and public car parks - when its there, it becomes easy. But that doesnt exist at the moment which does reduce the opportunity for many.

[soupdragon1]

The Golf and the ID3 are as about as close an EV / ICE comparison as you'll get in this price bracket

We ordered an ID3 back in Oct

The Life version was £25k for the midsize 58kwh battery, although we spent another £3k

£650 alloy wheel upgrade
£1.2k to upgrade the motor to over 200bhp
£1.1k on the vegan leather art velour fleece upgraded seats

So £28k for a...lukewarm?....hatch

Not quite a GTI of course but for £28k. We could have got the family for the same money (sunroof etc) but preferred the extra power and wheels versus a standard family

We still get led headlamps, heated seats, heated steering wheel, auto cruise as standard so its not like its missing loads of features

In summary, spec for spec, to better our ID3 for performance and features, you're into Golf GTI money I think?

Does this confirm that 'EVs are more expensive' is a statement that's beginning to turn?

We're also very close to buying the Polestar 2 as our family car. £45,990 for the dual motor, all wheel drive 400+Bhp

Or £39990 for the single motor 225hp version

It's not super expensive for what you get, and comfortably sits alongside any BMW or Audi in the same price bracket IMO

[TheDeuce]

soupdragon1 said:

The Golf and the ID3 are as about as close an EV / ICE comparison as you'll get in this price bracket

We ordered an ID3 back in Oct

The Life version was £25k for the midsize 58kwh battery, although we spent another £3k

£650 alloy wheel upgrade
£1.2k to upgrade the motor to over 200bhp
£1.1k on the vegan leather art velour fleece upgraded seats

So £28k for a...lukewarm?....hatch

Not quite a GTI of course but for £28k. We could have got the family for the same money (sunroof etc) but preferred the extra power and wheels versus a standard family

We still get led headlamps, heated seats, heated steering wheel, auto cruise as standard so its not like its missing loads of features

In summary, spec for spec, to better our ID3 for performance and features, you're into Golf GTI money I think?

Does this confirm that 'EVs are more expensive' is a statement that's beginning to turn?

We're also very close to buying the Polestar 2 as our family car. £45,990 for the dual motor, all wheel drive 400+Bhp

Or £39990 for the single motor 225hp version

It's not super expensive for what you get, and comfortably sits alongside any BMW or Audi in the same price bracket IMO

You might be on to something with the ID3 vs the Golf... Although having glanced at the configurator it looks to me like you could get a top trim golf for the 'life' trim of the ID3. Admittedly, it's not a big difference though. Certainly better than the E Golf compared to the ICE Golf.

I definitely agree that price parity exists in the more premium end of the market - as per my initial post on the matter. Four years ago I bough a BMW 430D GC that had originally left the forecourt at a shade under £47k and today I could buy the next generation EV variant for £50k. Allowing for some inflation in the 6-7 years the ICE car was originally purchased, I would say then new one is now more car for effectively less money.

Whatever differences might exist at different class/price points it's all more than compensated for by reduced running costs anyway. I suspect when people complain EV's are 'too expensive' what they mean is that they only want to spend £10k on a decent but slightly ageing used car to replace their current used car. Which is fair enough and EV cars probably will get down to that level... eventually... Clearly people that want to buy well used cars do, by default, have to wait quite a long time for the latest tech to filter down to their price point.

[Biggy Stardust]

RobDickinson said:

Not sure which rally you are talking about but there are 400mi range EVs on the roads today that gets you from Plymouth to Newcastle which is a 7 hour drive. You probably pass many hundreds of EV chargers on route too.



But feel free to remain a relic, you can say it wont happen or cant happen all you like but reality is proving you utterly wrong.

I can do journeys like that in a £500 ICE car- know you of an even vaguely equivalent EV? Either now or in the foreseeable future?

[Dingu]

Biggy Stardust said:

I can do journeys like that in a £500 ICE car- know you of an even vaguely equivalent EV? Either now or in the foreseeable future?

I’m not sure that’s strictly relevant. Your £500 ICE will be what, 10 years old? So this won’t be a concern until about 2040. Which is a long time for depreciation to occur.

[DonkeyApple]

20 years is probably enough time to find a different job that isn't in Plymouth or to move house from Newcastle?

It seems unlikely that old clunker EVs will be as cheap as old clunker ICEs are today just because to have any value they must have a viable battery pack which will obviously underpin a higher base value.

Whatever that base value transpires to be there will be a finance service to facilitate it though. And on top of that, how humans adapt to travel via EVs will be almost seamless.