Hydrogen availability
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
So let me get this straight, according to you the EV charging network is underdeveloped and in its infancy?I think we can all agree on that.
And yet also according to you, some how that problem is not actually a problem when developing a hydrogen network that isn't just in its infancy, it's pretty much completely non-existant, especially when we consider green hydrogen, which realistically is going to have to be used otherwise we could all just stay with ICE's.
So which is it?
Is the BEV charging network is a limit or not? if you say it is, then the hydrogen network is massively, massively more limiting (what with not actually existing at all) by the same metrics.
And let me tell you what the other significant and real problem with HFC passcars actually is. That problem, and this comes right from the horses mouth, from the managers and engineers working for the major OE's, people i interact with (and advise/consult too) on a daily basis, is the risk of a sudden battery development making everything else obsolete overnight.
The pure physics of chemical electropotential tells us that a chemical battery can be approximately nine times more energy dense in theory than the current best ones. This is not fiction, it's fact. However, that potential (sic) has not yet been realised. But critically, unlike for example the theoretical conversion efficiency of a carnot cycle heat engine, there is absolutely no physical reason why this nine times more energy dense battery cell cannot be developed. Today, it doesn't exist and it certainly doesn't exist at volume production level (think literally billions of cells per annum). But it could, and there is a good chance that it could suddenly exist, without much prior warning.
So, imagine you are once again, product manager for Ford's global mid sized passenger car platform. What are you going to choose as your propulsion source for your 2025 model (a model that will have to start development late next year remember)? If you choose an outsider, for example a hydrogen fuel cell, and there is any significant battery break through between now and 2025, you're done. FORD is gone, over, bankrupt, finished. Think about that for a moment. Want to take that risk? (in fact, you wouldn't actually be allowed to take that risk by necessarily conservative senior management and board members)
And although 9 times the SED is there for the taking, let me suggest that even a 100% improvement, (or possibly even 50%) would be significant, with say a Tesla Model 3 now doing between 500 and 600 miles on a charge. At this point, we move from a BEV suiting something like 95% of users (at 300 miles range) to suiting something like 99.8% of users (with 600 miles range). Your niche HFC is now nothing more than a extremely expensive white elephant, rendered irrelevant to your consumers.
As i type, worldwide, hundreds of billions of dollars is being invested in a battery and electrochemical research. It's extremely unlikely that at some point that spending isn't going to pay off..............
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 31st October 00:35
Don't forget there's significant crossover between BEV and FCEV technology when it comes to the motive power part of things. You can effectively swap the battery pack for fuel cell - you just have to design with this in mind - which means you can design a platform that can deliver both technologies.
But it's not the battery that's the limitation of BEV - it's the charging capacity. I posted up there somewhere that local grids are under strain and need the kind of investment nobody can afford at the moment.
But it's not the battery that's the limitation of BEV - it's the charging capacity. I posted up there somewhere that local grids are under strain and need the kind of investment nobody can afford at the moment.
Landcrab_Six said:
That sounds like a normal week for me and many others.
define "many".Stastically, the number of car drivers who drive lots of miles per week is actually extremely small:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/80-th-percenti...
So yes, "many" thousands of people may indeed drive lots of miles a week, but whilst they do that, millions and millions don't.........
(and imo, pretty soon, jobs that do involve this sort of thing will dissapear because they are so wastefull and consumptive, and increasinly, actually un-necessary in modern society, though either being taxed out of existance of simply becoming socially un-acceptable)
Max_Torque said:
Your telling a automotive consultant with 25 years experience and who designes and develops ICE, EVs and yes, FCV for a living how they work.
What's the equivalent of mainsplaining for advanced passcar technology?? ;-)
You're talking to someone who consults for people building convenience retail and forecourts! You know, the people who are looking at how this practically works and the financials of each solution.What's the equivalent of mainsplaining for advanced passcar technology?? ;-)
Landcrab_Six said:
You're talking to someone who consults for people building convenience retail and forecourts! You know, the people who are looking at how this practically works and the financials of each solution.
and that makes you an expert on passcar how exactly???and physical retail has not just been dead on it's ass for a couple of years, thanks to covid it's become a shadow of it's former self. It's out of touch with modern life. And pretty much all the service stations are desperately sticking in fast chargers in order to try to stay relevant as BEVs take over the pass car market and there owners look to a worrying future where they have simple become un-needed
(look at coal, or steel industry in the mid/late 1980's for reference)
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 31st October 00:54
Max_Torque said:
Landcrab_Six said:
You're talking to someone who consults for people building convenience retail and forecourts! You know, the people who are looking at how this practically works and the financials of each solution.
and that makes you an expert on passcar how exactly???Even with massive tax incentives, rapid EV charging is a huge problem for investors.
I'm sure you're aware that the Koreans are developing platforms that will deliver ICE, 'self charging hybrid', PHEV, BEV and FCEV on the same platform.
Max_Torque said:
Landcrab_Six said:
That sounds like a normal week for me and many others.
define "many".Stastically, the number of car drivers who drive lots of miles per week is actually extremely small:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/80-th-percenti...
So yes, "many" thousands of people may indeed drive lots of miles a week, but whilst they do that, millions and millions don't.........
(and imo, pretty soon, jobs that do involve this sort of thing will dissapear because they are so wastefull and consumptive, and increasinly, actually un-necessary in modern society, though either being taxed out of existance of simply becoming socially un-acceptable)
The current situation has forced the change, but the results have been far better than any of them expected.
rscott said:
Anecdotes, not empirical data, but I have several friends who used to drive 15k-25k a year, mainly for in person meetings and training sessions. All of them are carrying on doing the same roles, but remotely and in every case, their employers have said they expect the majority of their meetings/sessions to remain virtual, even when life returns to 'normal'.
The current situation has forced the change, but the results have been far better than any of them expected.
I'm finding that F2F has started to come back onto the radar. People buy from people. Selling additional services to existing clients over Teams isn't a big issue - selling yourself to a new client over Teams hands an immediate advantage to the incumbent supplier. People who know me are happy to do stuff on Teams - if I'm unknown other than via recommendation, they tend to want to see me in person. Plus, I miss the connection with all the other parts of the jigsaw. The guy who does car wash, the shop brand manager, even the person selling the hardware. The current situation works short term, but longer term it will fall apart.The current situation has forced the change, but the results have been far better than any of them expected.
Business will be happy with the current cost savings, until the point comes that someone questions why they're not winning new business. At least one of the partners I work with has now designated 'new business development' as a 'business critical' role and released all travel restrictions on the BDMs.
Landcrab_Six said:
I'm sure you're aware that the Koreans are developing platforms that will deliver ICE, 'self charging hybrid', PHEV, BEV and FCEV on the same platform.
The problem is that a "jack of all trades" platform is pretty rubbish, as it's an enourmous compromise. Technically possible yes, cost and function optimised, oh no, far from it.Tesla have demonstrated what can be done with pure BEV, and the likes of VW have finally cottoned on and are pretty quickly, going to out-tesla, tesla!
Landcrab_Six said:
But it's not the battery that's the limitation of BEV - it's the charging capacity. I posted up there somewhere that local grids are under strain and need the kind of investment nobody can afford at the moment.
It's also how powerful a charger can be developed to get the energy into these mystical, hypothetical 'ten times more energy dense' batteries quickly and efficiently enough.Tesla are already struggling with the batteries for their semi and that's gone back two years.
And if these batteries suddenly appear what happens to all the low powered public and home chargers? And at what cost do these batteries come?
Hydrogen is, intrinsically, a simple, pure energy source. Trying to engineer the structure and composition of a battery to get anywhere near that energy into it seems like a step into fantasy.
Landcrab_Six said:
I'm sure you're aware that the Koreans are developing platforms that will deliver ICE, 'self charging hybrid', PHEV, BEV and FCEV on the same platform.
Developing, no.Nope, haven’t seen one that included FCEV, the others yes. It’s not even that fancy anyway being FWD cars and significant BIW variance between the HEV, PHEV and BEV. It’s called an IONIQ...
Without a shadow of a doubt they will be developing a BEV only platform and maybe even investing in BEV commercial vehicle startups...
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I don’t think anyone is arguing that the scale of the task to build such a charging infrastructure is minor.We’ve just spent two weeks going backwards and forwards and how anyone can continue to claim that the alternative (green hydrogen) is any less of a task is beyond me.
Once again, hydrogen energy consumption will be between two to three time’s higher, the baked-in operating cost difference will very quickly dwarf any marginal difference between the infrastructure costs of electrical charging vs hydrogen.
The money will be there to do either, it just a question of backing the right horse. There will be no photo finish here.
So, a quick experient on this ileage question.
If as a driver you are covering 500 miles per week for at least 40 weeks per year that's 20k miles. Add to that 500 miles per month of other mileage and your grand total mileage for the year would be 26k (which based on some of the posts on here appears low?)
So at 4 years old your car would have covered 104k miles. (I chose 2016 as should include a lot of 4 year old company cars coming off lease)
Of the 9171 2016 registered cars currently for sale on Autotrader how many do you think have covered in excess of 100k miles?
265, or less than 3%.
Up that annual mileage to 32k (2700 a month, 630 a week) and that drops to 46 cars for sale or 0.5%.
Now take into account that 32k miles per year also covers drivers who do a 100 miles daily commute and minimal personal mileage that BEV could handle with ease on an overnight charge with a 3-pin granny charger and we're talking tiny numbers?
If as a driver you are covering 500 miles per week for at least 40 weeks per year that's 20k miles. Add to that 500 miles per month of other mileage and your grand total mileage for the year would be 26k (which based on some of the posts on here appears low?)
So at 4 years old your car would have covered 104k miles. (I chose 2016 as should include a lot of 4 year old company cars coming off lease)
Of the 9171 2016 registered cars currently for sale on Autotrader how many do you think have covered in excess of 100k miles?
265, or less than 3%.
Up that annual mileage to 32k (2700 a month, 630 a week) and that drops to 46 cars for sale or 0.5%.
Now take into account that 32k miles per year also covers drivers who do a 100 miles daily commute and minimal personal mileage that BEV could handle with ease on an overnight charge with a 3-pin granny charger and we're talking tiny numbers?
Landcrab_Six said:
The one thing about the 'new normal' is that is has driven me ever further away from swapping to a BEV. I'm entrenched in PHEV now.
I find myself doing fewer meetings per day and more miles per day as the hotel experience is so bloody awful I'd prefer an extra few hours on the road rather than book a hotel.
Which means BEV has moved further into the distance for me. 2-300 mile days are becoming 600 mile days, the very last thing I want is a couple of extended charging stops en route. The only good thing about the current pandemic is that motorway rapid chargers are more likely to be available without waiting.
Of course, I rarely plug in the PHEV, unless the hotel has charging spaces when I do stay away, mostly it's Friday afternoon to run around at the weekend on electric when I can't charge mileage back to the clients.
How long does a full tank of hydrogen last if the vehicle is unused. I'd heard that leakage was a potential issue?I find myself doing fewer meetings per day and more miles per day as the hotel experience is so bloody awful I'd prefer an extra few hours on the road rather than book a hotel.
Which means BEV has moved further into the distance for me. 2-300 mile days are becoming 600 mile days, the very last thing I want is a couple of extended charging stops en route. The only good thing about the current pandemic is that motorway rapid chargers are more likely to be available without waiting.
Of course, I rarely plug in the PHEV, unless the hotel has charging spaces when I do stay away, mostly it's Friday afternoon to run around at the weekend on electric when I can't charge mileage back to the clients.
Landcrab_Six said:
rscott said:
Anecdotes, not empirical data, but I have several friends who used to drive 15k-25k a year, mainly for in person meetings and training sessions. All of them are carrying on doing the same roles, but remotely and in every case, their employers have said they expect the majority of their meetings/sessions to remain virtual, even when life returns to 'normal'.
The current situation has forced the change, but the results have been far better than any of them expected.
I'm finding that F2F has started to come back onto the radar. People buy from people. Selling additional services to existing clients over Teams isn't a big issue - selling yourself to a new client over Teams hands an immediate advantage to the incumbent supplier. People who know me are happy to do stuff on Teams - if I'm unknown other than via recommendation, they tend to want to see me in person. Plus, I miss the connection with all the other parts of the jigsaw. The guy who does car wash, the shop brand manager, even the person selling the hardware. The current situation works short term, but longer term it will fall apart.The current situation has forced the change, but the results have been far better than any of them expected.
Business will be happy with the current cost savings, until the point comes that someone questions why they're not winning new business. At least one of the partners I work with has now designated 'new business development' as a 'business critical' role and released all travel restrictions on the BDMs.
Many of the companies are considering reducing or completely closing their offices and moving over to using shared meeting facilities for the few times staff need to meet in person, which also has a big impact on the mileage of those people.
Most are considering getting rid of their diesels as their usage simply doesn't justify or suit that sort of vehicle and switching to either BEV or more fun petrol cars (at least one is looking at an MX-5..)
On the subject of paying for infrastructure, the UK currently subsidises fossil fuels to the tune of £10 billion a year.
How many millions of charging points (including network upgrades) would £10 billion buy?
Allocating around £1 billion a year for charging infrastructure would probably get us to 2 million charging points over a period of 20-30 years.
How many millions of charging points (including network upgrades) would £10 billion buy?
Allocating around £1 billion a year for charging infrastructure would probably get us to 2 million charging points over a period of 20-30 years.
GT119 said:
On the subject of paying for infrastructure, the UK currently subsidises fossil fuels to the tune of £10 billion a year.
How many millions of charging points (including network upgrades) would £10 billion buy?
Allocating around £1 billion a year for charging infrastructure would probably get us to 2 million charging points over a period of 20-30 years.
The state is already subsidising home charging points and government's own research says that if everyone with their own off street parking have charging points, then we only need under 250,000 public points...How many millions of charging points (including network upgrades) would £10 billion buy?
Allocating around £1 billion a year for charging infrastructure would probably get us to 2 million charging points over a period of 20-30 years.
I suppose the problem with BEV is lots of people need to charge at the same time, mainly overnight on the street and I think we can agree that is going to be a problem to provide ?
70% of homes dont have a garage and 38% park on the street so thats 9,000,000 households that need a charging point installed not at the cost of the home owner ?
What would be the cost of installing enough charging points.
Certainly the simple cost seems to be £500 to £1000 per charger at home using existing supply ? but once you factor in digging up streets (even if you could jump off the existing street cable) the cost surely is going to be immense.
70% of homes dont have a garage and 38% park on the street so thats 9,000,000 households that need a charging point installed not at the cost of the home owner ?
What would be the cost of installing enough charging points.
Certainly the simple cost seems to be £500 to £1000 per charger at home using existing supply ? but once you factor in digging up streets (even if you could jump off the existing street cable) the cost surely is going to be immense.
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