Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?
Discussion
pault76 said:
jurbie said:
The only real problem for me is I don't like spending a lot of money on cars. How far away are we from a used market of EV's where something equivalent to say a Mondeo is available for sub £10000?
This year I have dipped my foot in the water with a F30 330e PHEV, and used EV prices (for the brands I like) are unlikely to fall substantially so I'm likely to end up with the G20 330e next. Hopefully after that they will have come down to a sensible level.My main worry with current battery tech is yes, you may find a suitable vehicle below £10,000. But much like a 4 year old iPhone, you're hoping the battery's going to last more than a day! I'm sure future battery tech will be longer lasting, but there will always be the problem of degrading batteries as you move towards 10+ years old. Even with a 15 year old ICE you're likely to find it runs as well as day one providing it has been serviced and cared for.
more than a day? What does time have to do with anything, you don't leave your car turned on all day just in case you need it? Yes there may be a drop in absolute range but that's incredibly easy to confirm with an EV and will often be affected by how uch AC v DC charging it's been subjected to over its lifetime.
SWoll said:
Sorry, but that is utter tosh. Regular servicing isn't going to remove all of the build up of crap inside the engine due to mechanical wear, heat and having to burn various qualities of fuel over its lifetime. Or the clogging of DPF's/catalytic converters, rotten exhaust systems, worn turbochargers, cracked manifolds, leaky seals, worn gearboxes etc.
My three consecutive Mercs, all doing well in excess of 300k miles, all with proper servicing, with no such issues suggests it is not necessarily utter tosh.SWoll said:
kambites said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yup, which is why if the government is serious about significantly reducing the emissions from transportation, the entire structure of society will have to change to bring these people closer together. If it's going to happen the transition to EVs cannot be viewed with an attitude of "we'll be able to carry on doing everything we did before". Same with other emissions. Yes we may be able to make factories, planes, heating systems, etc. more efficient but that on its own wont be enough. We need to buy (and hence make) less stuff, fly less, better insulate our houses, etc. so we simply use less of those things. This will, of course, have an enormous impact on the economy, although whether it damages the economy or simply changes it remains to be seen.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 15th November 12:32
I would expect this trend to continue which should significantly reduce the projected requirement for rapid public charging and the number of drivers who absolutely need a vehicle that can do 300+ miles without a charging stop as is often suggested on these threads?
He's been driving and working through lockdown. I've been driving and working through lockdown.
We have to travel for work.
Only those that don't need to travel have been kept at home and it's highly likely those that needed to travel further afield for work before have been travelling for work through all this and will continue to travel for work after, expect for those that have been made redundant or have been temporarily furloughed. It's more likely the short journey office workers that are WFH and those short journeys that are being stopped.
The people travelling are the technicians, the sales team, the installers, the project managers, regional managers, national managers, financial advisers, surveyors, antiques buyers even
. ......Once more, the sentiment, that the people who travel longer distances for work are a tiny outlying minority of drivers, is wrong.
jjwilde said:
Monkeylegend said:
My three consecutive Mercs, all doing well in excess of 300k miles, all with proper servicing, with no such issues suggests it is not necessarily utter tosh.
300k merc driving like a new one, ok buddy. Who said they still drove like a new car?
But you are the one talking tosh if you don't think cars can still drive well and be trouble free with high mileages.
Mine were all used as chauffeur vehicles so had to drive well and be very presentable to be accepted by my very discerning customers
Funnily enough when I exchanged the previous one Mercedes told me they would put it out to auction, and that it was an ideal car for mileage adjustment because it was in such good condition nobody could tell it had done 312k miles just by looking at it and driving it, other than the giveaway on the speedometer.
Lo and behold it turned up for an unneeded MOT 2 months after I traded it in with 312k miles showing, with a new mileage of 79,442, with no advisories.
I kept the last one and it is still going strong at 318k miles.
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
Monkeylegend said:
Buddy, what a crass thing to say
Who said they still drove like a new car?
But you are the one talking tosh if you don't think cars can still drive well and be trouble free with high mileages.
Mine were all used as chauffeur vehicles so had to drive well and be very presentable to be accepted by my very discerning customers
Funnily enough when I exchanged the previous one Mercedes told me they would put it out to auction, and that it was an ideal car for mileage adjustment because it was in such good condition nobody could tell it had done 312k miles just by looking at it and driving it, other than the giveaway on the speedometer.
Lo and behold it turned up for an unneeded MOT 2 months after I traded it in with 312k miles showing, with a new mileage of 79,442, with no advisories.
I kept the last one and it is still going strong at 318k miles.
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
OK mate, and did everyone clap after that happened?Who said they still drove like a new car?
But you are the one talking tosh if you don't think cars can still drive well and be trouble free with high mileages.
Mine were all used as chauffeur vehicles so had to drive well and be very presentable to be accepted by my very discerning customers
Funnily enough when I exchanged the previous one Mercedes told me they would put it out to auction, and that it was an ideal car for mileage adjustment because it was in such good condition nobody could tell it had done 312k miles just by looking at it and driving it, other than the giveaway on the speedometer.
Lo and behold it turned up for an unneeded MOT 2 months after I traded it in with 312k miles showing, with a new mileage of 79,442, with no advisories.
I kept the last one and it is still going strong at 318k miles.
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
Also, since loads of Teslas are taxis with over 500k on them, they'd be fine? Without all the insane levels of servicing your magic, clocked by a scumbag, merc would have had too.
Max_Torque said:
And let me make another point. IMO, at some point, if climate change is indeed a "thing" there will be a major event that will act as a tipping point. We don't know what that event might be, but consider for a moment a day that the Thames barrier is overwhelmed and a large proportion of London is flooded. At that point, social pressures will change incredibly rapidly. Needless waste and consumption of non-renewable energy could well not just become socially unacceptable, but actually illegal! How long do you think it would take for a legal Bill mandating that to pass in the Houses of Parliment when they have to vote standing in 3 feet of dirty Thames water and sewage?
Serious question - do you honestly believe that moving from ICE to EV would actually play a major part in that scenario being prevented?dmsims said:
Pre Covid 78% of drivers did less than 10K miles p.a.
You are always going to get the mega milers but they are firmly in the minority
Not aimed specifically at you You are always going to get the mega milers but they are firmly in the minority
but please stop focusing on extreme labels such as 'mega-milers'. There's a whole range of real-world careers that require miles above the average. It's not just the extreme minorities who currently need something that BEV cannot do. There are careers that need infrequent but long and varying journeys that don't necessarily represent an excessively large annual mileage but with typical journey distances and timescales not well served by BEV ranges and charging times.It's like those that talk about the imaginary person who has to pull a trailer, non stop, from Land's End to John O'Groats - there's a lot of reality between the average and that silly extreme that you can't choose to ignore by painting it with that daft 'example'.
jjwilde said:
Monkeylegend said:
Buddy, what a crass thing to say
Who said they still drove like a new car?
But you are the one talking tosh if you don't think cars can still drive well and be trouble free with high mileages.
Mine were all used as chauffeur vehicles so had to drive well and be very presentable to be accepted by my very discerning customers
Funnily enough when I exchanged the previous one Mercedes told me they would put it out to auction, and that it was an ideal car for mileage adjustment because it was in such good condition nobody could tell it had done 312k miles just by looking at it and driving it, other than the giveaway on the speedometer.
Lo and behold it turned up for an unneeded MOT 2 months after I traded it in with 312k miles showing, with a new mileage of 79,442, with no advisories.
I kept the last one and it is still going strong at 318k miles.
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
OK mate, and did everyone clap after that happened?Who said they still drove like a new car?
But you are the one talking tosh if you don't think cars can still drive well and be trouble free with high mileages.
Mine were all used as chauffeur vehicles so had to drive well and be very presentable to be accepted by my very discerning customers
Funnily enough when I exchanged the previous one Mercedes told me they would put it out to auction, and that it was an ideal car for mileage adjustment because it was in such good condition nobody could tell it had done 312k miles just by looking at it and driving it, other than the giveaway on the speedometer.
Lo and behold it turned up for an unneeded MOT 2 months after I traded it in with 312k miles showing, with a new mileage of 79,442, with no advisories.
I kept the last one and it is still going strong at 318k miles.
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
Also, since loads of Teslas are taxis with over 500k on them, they'd be fine? Without all the insane levels of servicing your magic, clocked by a scumbag, merc would have had too.
I wonder what the battery capacity on these Teslas is by 500k - is that 500k miles or km? What their range has dropped to.
It's looking like double figure % degradation in battery capacity before 100,000 miles , for example.
Evanivitch said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Is it? Where have you seen that?Look at the blue and green lines, which are based on the distribution of the real-world cases (dots) and project to 100,000 miles.
https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/tesla-data-battery-...
Max_Torque said:
And finally, let me also make it clear that the source angostic and fundmentally bi-directional nature of a BEV make it possible for it to ACTIVELY normalise your "problem" peaks and troughs. And not just to load level, but to load level with a positive financial gain to the owner! If you have a car, at home, which is charged, and you don't actuially need to drive 300 miles tomorrow, then you can, easily and with very high effiiciency, sell that energy back to the grid at peak times, and generate a positive income doing that.
This has got me thinking, does EV battery energy deplete when not being used, much like the energy in batteries used in other tech?Edited by Max_Torque on Sunday 15th November 15:28
I'm not talking about the batteries themselves, but the energy they're storing.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Lets be quite clear here, without sentiment or bias, here are the actual FACTs from the Department of Transport:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
"Data extracted from the UK National Travel Survey, showing the aggregated average daily distance travelled by private car in white with the axis on the left, and the breakdown of average daily distance by car types shown in various labelled shades of grey with the axis on the right"
Passenger car journeys over 200 miles (the typical range of a current EV) make up less than 1% of journeys.
ONE PERCENT.
Now lets be quite clear. One percent is not "nobody". It's still a significant number of people. But it is no way any kind of majority. As working from home becomes the norm for more and more people (again, for the hard of thinking, for MOST but NOT FOR EVERYBODY), as pressures on CO2 and energy consumption continue to increase (socially and legistaltively), then there is very likely to be a continued natural reduction in the percentage of people who will have to drive large distances on a regular daily basis for work reasons. Again, some people will still need too, but as they can still drive a ICE for many years yet (i'd suggest at least 20, and maybe more) hwo is that a problem?
This is therefore, when you look at the FACTS a complete non-issue.
Evanivitch said:
Monkeylegend said:
I wonder how battery packs would cope with that sort of mileage?
All of them that aren't a 22/30kWh Leaf?I was not being critical of EV cars, I have no idea of how many miles battery packs can cope with. It is good to be educated by those who have experience on these things.
Max_Torque said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Lets be quite clear here, without sentiment or bias, here are the actual FACTs from the Department of Transport:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
"Data extracted from the UK National Travel Survey, showing the aggregated average daily distance travelled by private car in white with the axis on the left, and the breakdown of average daily distance by car types shown in various labelled shades of grey with the axis on the right"
Passenger car journeys over 200 miles (the typical range of a current EV) make up less than 1% of journeys.
ONE PERCENT.
Now lets be quite clear. One percent is not "nobody". It's still a significant number of people. But it is no way any kind of majority. As working from home becomes the norm for more and more people (again, for the hard of thinking, for MOST but NOT FOR EVERYBODY), as pressures on CO2 and energy consumption continue to increase (socially and legistaltively), then there is very likely to be a continued natural reduction in the percentage of people who will have to drive large distances on a regular daily basis for work reasons. Again, some people will still need too, but as they can still drive a ICE for many years yet (i'd suggest at least 20, and maybe more) hwo is that a problem?
This is therefore, when you look at the FACTS a complete non-issue.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The shape of the curve suggest's most of the degradation is done by 100,000 miles though.There are plenty of articles about high mileage Teslas on the net if you want to educate yourself on this, including I believe a taxi in Norway at 400,000 km with 6-7% degradation and a 1 million mile car in Germany, albeit now on its third battery pack.
Some of the Tesla battery pack models are significantly worse than others, I'm sure they will weed out the reasons behind this and adopt the better performing technology set for future production.
I very much doubt 'double digit' degradation will be seen on the vast majority of future BEVs.
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