Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
jjwilde said:
Some Gump said:
Is it?
Option 1: use tried and tested solution of a rain sensor.
Option 2: spend a lot of time end effort making something that's evidently inferior. Spend more time and effort and make it work about the same. Maybe.
Sure you can impress some geeks, but what actual benefit does it bring to the table?
Their cameras learning how to see rain (and maybe snow/fog) is a major step forward in their AI. They may seem to be coming at this from weird angles but Elon's gamble on 'if humans can see it so can computers' is starting to pay off. It's just taking longer than he thought but it is working.Option 1: use tried and tested solution of a rain sensor.
Option 2: spend a lot of time end effort making something that's evidently inferior. Spend more time and effort and make it work about the same. Maybe.
Sure you can impress some geeks, but what actual benefit does it bring to the table?
This will lead to them saving major money over other AI systems (other systems use loads more equiptment).
Ie if you can't clean your windscreen well with deep neural network, what chance has FAD got?
Sambucket said:
Just had a notification to tell me windscreen super update will be installed at 2am tonight. Quite excited! Maybe the wipers worked all along these past years and they deliberately nerfed them in order to have something to update.
I think I’m done with the TSLA debate for now. I’m not really surprised rob stopped posting here after getting his car. All the ‘car of the year’ awards that keep rolling in are hugely deserved and the company’s future seems safe. Even Cramer is long now!
Rob has stopped posting? We wish. I think I’m done with the TSLA debate for now. I’m not really surprised rob stopped posting here after getting his car. All the ‘car of the year’ awards that keep rolling in are hugely deserved and the company’s future seems safe. Even Cramer is long now!
jamoor said:
So that must be when they dropped the sensor out of the model S surely?
After the Joshua Brown decapitation Tesla and Mobileye fell out, the contract was severed (no unfortunate pun intended) and from late 2016 Tesla had to bring forward their own systems which frankly weren’t ready. they rushed it out the door making all sorts of promises and with large brass gohooners put the price up claiming full self driving hardware etc.. in reality they didn’t have a clue what it could do. Wipers were just part of the problem, but they didn’t include a rain sensor and many joke it’s because it doesn’t rain much in Fremont. I’m sure Musk had some sort of vision, but vision and ability to execute aren’t always the same thing. As a consequence, partly driven by the bad press on the decap (and no doubt mobileye weren’t too chuffed Tesla were developing their own system, so why show any loyalty to Tesla) they, Tesla, got bounced into a rushed job.I’m not sure if you were around but AP1 is and pretty always has been pretty solid, over night Tesla doubled the price, promised FSD ’soon’ and it was a year before even basic lane keep was rolled out and that was limited to 45mph or something daft. Auto wipers were a year later. Some spen5 £8k and got nothing for over a year despite promises, They’re now expecting HW upgrades but they’re not exactly forthcoming and new features and toys are leaving them behind.
That potted history on just this one area is why people like myself are very cynical of Tesla promises. Musk will say anything to dig himself out of a hole - I guess he had few choices back then. Does it make it right? We could debate that, but he’s shown no great loyalty to those who kept buying back then despite the reality.
So this wiper thing just makes me laugh, it was a problem that should never have needed solving so publicaly, it can arguably be traced back to Tesla thinking it cool back then to have no real nags on AP resulting in a car going under a lorry that caused the breakdown with a supplier that threatened a USP Tesla were touting around.
RichardM5 said:
Having used cars with a dedicated rain sensor, they are by no means perfect. In particular, conditions where there is a very gradual and steady increase in the rain on the windscreen in the dark. If the Tesla system can improve on that then it’s no bad thing IMO.
But can it? And will it be same, better or worse after the next update? Also wonder what their ROI is on the R&D hours they allocated to solve this problem for which a perfectly adequate solution is cheaply available. Heres Johnny said:
That potted history on just this one area is why people like myself are very cynical of Tesla promises.
What should really worry the FSD believers are Musk quotes like this (on the rain sensor): “It is actually called deep rain, as sort of a joke at Tesla. Takes a surprising amount of deep learning to know when and how fast to move the wipers.”No kidding. So how likely the things will learn how to read traffic signs reliably let alone drive themselves anywhere safely? But they still have 4 weeks until the promised end of year deadline...
Kolbenkopp said:
What should really worry the FSD believers are Musk quotes like this (on the rain sensor): “It is actually called deep rain, as sort of a joke at Tesla. Takes a surprising amount of deep learning to know when and how fast to move the wipers.”
No kidding. So how likely the things will learn how to read traffic signs reliably let alone drive themselves anywhere safely? But they still have 4 weeks until the promised end of year deadline...
I feel sorry for those that have leased cars with fsd based on these promises and may never see them before their leases expireNo kidding. So how likely the things will learn how to read traffic signs reliably let alone drive themselves anywhere safely? But they still have 4 weeks until the promised end of year deadline...
Maybe it will be better one day, maybe not. I feel if I was designing an AP camera I’d set up the focal point, focal length, aperture etc to reduce the impact of anything on the glass to reduce the issues with dirt obscuring the image. If you do that it’s then quite difficult to work out if there’s anything on the glass as your camera is set up not to see things. You then have to look at the environment and somehow decide that x amount of spray on the road equates to needing a wipe every y seconds.
Pretty much everyone agrees Tesla have had not much competition, there are few 200+ real world EVs, few cars doing 60 under 4s, few supercharging networks, so why oh why do they feel they need to over sell and under deliver on so many other areas is beyond me as it just leaves them open to criticism. If the hard economics are such they would go bust without 25% paying 5k for FSD then that’s a dangerous game as all pre hw3 cars with FSD will need big money spending on them for the upgrades at some point and very possibly so will the hw3 cars wiping out all the margin on the feature.
Pretty much everyone agrees Tesla have had not much competition, there are few 200+ real world EVs, few cars doing 60 under 4s, few supercharging networks, so why oh why do they feel they need to over sell and under deliver on so many other areas is beyond me as it just leaves them open to criticism. If the hard economics are such they would go bust without 25% paying 5k for FSD then that’s a dangerous game as all pre hw3 cars with FSD will need big money spending on them for the upgrades at some point and very possibly so will the hw3 cars wiping out all the margin on the feature.
Some Gump said:
jamoor said:
I feel sorry for those that have leased cars with fsd based on these promises and may never see them before their leases expire
I still can't see how nothing has been miss-sold.Coming later this year:
Recognise and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets.
Enhanced Summon — your parked car will come find you in a car park.
Dave Hedgehog said:
the primary purpose is not to save money but to try and slow down the speed we are f
king the planet
cost whilst important i would hope would be a secondary driver
VW have been flogging of the e golf very cheap recently, presumable getting rid of stock before the ID3 takes its place
wow the 2016 egolfs are only a few k cheaper than the new ones
Yes. More consumption is the solution to a problem caused by consumption. king the planetcost whilst important i would hope would be a secondary driver
VW have been flogging of the e golf very cheap recently, presumable getting rid of stock before the ID3 takes its place
wow the 2016 egolfs are only a few k cheaper than the new ones
Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Friday 29th November 15:42
Just drive less, keep cars much longer, buy less tat, eat a little less red meat, plant trees. All sensible.
Buying a new car to save the planet? Er, fundamentally flawed logic.
The bloke driving an old Honda Jazz and not endlessly buying gadgets, or taking overseas holidays is the the environmental person. The one buying the new car and living the dream is closer to environmental vandalism than evangelicalism.
The G-Wiz was arguably the last EV that had environmentalism at its heart. What Tesla has achieved, along with other global manufacturers is the hijacking of the environmental argument to twist it to sell more stuff that people just don’t need. They are as much a part of the problem and certainly not a credible part of the solution.
DonkeyApple said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
the primary purpose is not to save money but to try and slow down the speed we are fking the planet
cost whilst important i would hope would be a secondary driver
VW have been flogging of the e golf very cheap recently, presumable getting rid of stock before the ID3 takes its place
wow the 2016 egolfs are only a few k cheaper than the new ones
Yes. More consumption is the solution to a problem caused by consumption. king the planetcost whilst important i would hope would be a secondary driver
VW have been flogging of the e golf very cheap recently, presumable getting rid of stock before the ID3 takes its place
wow the 2016 egolfs are only a few k cheaper than the new ones
Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Friday 29th November 15:42
Just drive less, keep cars much longer, buy less tat, eat a little less red meat, plant trees. All sensible.
Buying a new car to save the planet? Er, fundamentally flawed logic.
The bloke driving an old Honda Jazz and not endlessly buying gadgets, or taking overseas holidays is the the environmental person. The one buying the new car and living the dream is closer to environmental vandalism than evangelicalism.
The G-Wiz was arguably the last EV that had environmentalism at its heart. What Tesla has achieved, along with other global manufacturers is the hijacking of the environmental argument to twist it to sell more stuff that people just don’t need. They are as much a part of the problem and certainly not a credible part of the solution.
And the motive is clear, Tesla's owner wants earth to collapse so he can save humanity and become god on Mars
Musk fans, he guest appeared on Rick and Morty last week.
Rick though decided he didn't want our version of Musk as "it's a team effort, and regular Musk can be a bit controlling" so chose to get one from a parallel universe
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T7u6xlxJxMU
Rick though decided he didn't want our version of Musk as "it's a team effort, and regular Musk can be a bit controlling" so chose to get one from a parallel universe
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T7u6xlxJxMU
Edited by hyphen on Sunday 1st December 14:47
jamoor said:
My primary purpose for buying an electric car is that its a superior product in almost every conceivable way and it was relatively cheap once running costs are taken into account compared to other cars I've owned.
Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
An EV is not a superior product as it still involves, on occasion, more inconvenience than a petrol car.Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
As I've told you several times already, it doesn't (yet) work out cheaper for my use case.
jamoor said:
it's not pointless, it takes me about 15 seconds to plug it in and its always charged, if it's hot or cold then it will draw power from the mains to heat/cool the car before you set off. And its the cheapest method of charging (apart from free charging points)
Some inconsistency on how long it takes, some saying 15 seconds, others saying 30. I reckon coiling and uncoiling the cable must take a little bit of time.Heating or cooling the car before one sets off is irrelevant to me, and a total waste of energy.
LG9k said:
jamoor said:
My primary purpose for buying an electric car is that its a superior product in almost every conceivable way and it was relatively cheap once running costs are taken into account compared to other cars I've owned.
Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
An EV is not a superior product as it still involves, on occasion, more inconvenience than a petrol car.Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
As I've told you several times already, it doesn't (yet) work out cheaper for my use case.
jamoor said:
it's not pointless, it takes me about 15 seconds to plug it in and its always charged, if it's hot or cold then it will draw power from the mains to heat/cool the car before you set off. And its the cheapest method of charging (apart from free charging points)
Some inconsistency on how long it takes, some saying 15 seconds, others saying 30. I reckon coiling and uncoiling the cable must take a little bit of time.Heating or cooling the car before one sets off is irrelevant to me, and a total waste of energy.
If it's 30 seconds, I've never filled up a car with petrol/diesel in 30 seconds.
Oh and I'm a powerfully built company director so there was the whole BIK thing that worked hugely to my advantage.
Edited by jamoor on Monday 2nd December 10:00
Edited by jamoor on Monday 2nd December 10:25
LG9k said:
jamoor said:
My primary purpose for buying an electric car is that its a superior product in almost every conceivable way and it was relatively cheap once running costs are taken into account compared to other cars I've owned.
Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
An EV is not a superior product as it still involves, on occasion, more inconvenience than a petrol car.Didn't give a stuff about the environment then and I still don't.
As I've told you several times already, it doesn't (yet) work out cheaper for my use case.
jamoor said:
it's not pointless, it takes me about 15 seconds to plug it in and its always charged, if it's hot or cold then it will draw power from the mains to heat/cool the car before you set off. And its the cheapest method of charging (apart from free charging points)
Some inconsistency on how long it takes, some saying 15 seconds, others saying 30. I reckon coiling and uncoiling the cable must take a little bit of time.Heating or cooling the car before one sets off is irrelevant to me, and a total waste of energy.
How long it takes to plug in will be dependent on which charger you are using. < 30 seconds seems a bit pointless arguing about though TBH?
Why would warming up your car when it's -2 degrees outside (which also defrosts all of the windows) be irrelevant to anyone? Or indeed cooing it down on a day when it's 30 degrees? Uses the same amount of energy as doing it once you are in the car so how is it a waste either?
DonkeyApple said:
The G-Wiz was arguably the last EV that had environmentalism at its heart.
In that there are too many people, and it was a death trap on wheels, perhaps.People should reduce their travel, replace car journeys with public transport journeys, walk and cycle more, and in terms of consumer goods they should reduce, reuse, recycle. This is not news. This has been the message for decades.
How's that strategy working out?
otolith said:
People should reduce their travel, replace car journeys with public transport journeys, walk and cycle more, and in terms of consumer goods they should reduce, reuse, recycle. This is not news. This has been the message for decades.
How's that strategy working out?
Judging by the endless tat in the Range - not wellHow's that strategy working out?
Tesla has got 250 000 deposits at $100 per pop, but it's refundable. It's still $25m cash in hand though and considering the share price goes up and down more than a wes knickers depending on the time of the month, er quarter, can they put this into profits for this quarter?
Last months profit was about $150m or so, done by cost cutting, Fiat trades and software progressive payments.
Ah, software progressive payments. Those last 3 words, in hindsight, were not something I'd thought I'd ever write on a child friendly webforum like PH.... but the dirty deed has been done.
es knickers depending on the time of the month, er quarter, can they put this into profits for this quarter? Last months profit was about $150m or so, done by cost cutting, Fiat trades and software progressive payments.
Ah, software progressive payments. Those last 3 words, in hindsight, were not something I'd thought I'd ever write on a child friendly webforum like PH.... but the dirty deed has been done.
Edited by Gandahar on Monday 2nd December 16:22
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