EVs... no one wants them!

EVs... no one wants them!

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Discussion

520TORQUES

4,888 posts

17 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
I paid 20p/litre less yesterday than last month.

plfrench

2,437 posts

270 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
Sorry, had not seen that. Just goes to show though that EV's will probably not be competitive in the future on cost grounds. Electricity will be getting a lot more expensive in the future for following reasons:

1. To pay for and invest in the huge infrastructure changes required to transition to renewables - including government subsidies etc.
2. Because the demand on our electrical grid (due to changes in business, household and transport usage) will increase exponentially.
3. Due to (in the absence of investment in significant nuclear or electrical storage capacity) the maintenance of a large fossil fuel backup that will be required for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
4. Having to import more expensive energy from other countries if any of the above can not be achieved.

Also, the government will want to recoup any lost revenue with schemes such as the above, in addition to dynamic road pricing etc.

I wonder then whether those EV buyers spending 10's of thousands on luxury EV's, and loosing a significant portion of that spend in depreciation in the first year or two, just so that they are able to brag about saving a few thousand on fuel and tax bills, will finally be a thing of the past?
Not be competitive with what? confused

OutInTheShed

7,961 posts

28 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
plfrench said:
DriveSnowdonia said:
Sorry, had not seen that. Just goes to show though that EV's will probably not be competitive in the future on cost grounds. Electricity will be getting a lot more expensive in the future for following reasons:

1. To pay for and invest in the huge infrastructure changes required to transition to renewables - including government subsidies etc.
2. Because the demand on our electrical grid (due to changes in business, household and transport usage) will increase exponentially.
3. Due to (in the absence of investment in significant nuclear or electrical storage capacity) the maintenance of a large fossil fuel backup that will be required for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
4. Having to import more expensive energy from other countries if any of the above can not be achieved.

Also, the government will want to recoup any lost revenue with schemes such as the above, in addition to dynamic road pricing etc.

I wonder then whether those EV buyers spending 10's of thousands on luxury EV's, and loosing a significant portion of that spend in depreciation in the first year or two, just so that they are able to brag about saving a few thousand on fuel and tax bills, will finally be a thing of the past?
Not be competitive with what? confused
The bus!

plfrench

2,437 posts

270 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
plfrench said:
DriveSnowdonia said:
Sorry, had not seen that. Just goes to show though that EV's will probably not be competitive in the future on cost grounds. Electricity will be getting a lot more expensive in the future for following reasons:

1. To pay for and invest in the huge infrastructure changes required to transition to renewables - including government subsidies etc.
2. Because the demand on our electrical grid (due to changes in business, household and transport usage) will increase exponentially.
3. Due to (in the absence of investment in significant nuclear or electrical storage capacity) the maintenance of a large fossil fuel backup that will be required for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
4. Having to import more expensive energy from other countries if any of the above can not be achieved.

Also, the government will want to recoup any lost revenue with schemes such as the above, in addition to dynamic road pricing etc.

I wonder then whether those EV buyers spending 10's of thousands on luxury EV's, and loosing a significant portion of that spend in depreciation in the first year or two, just so that they are able to brag about saving a few thousand on fuel and tax bills, will finally be a thing of the past?
Not be competitive with what? confused
The bus!
Oh, fair enough biggrin

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
FWIW said:
DriveSnowdonia said:
I wonder how long it will take for the currently smug ULEZ dodging, low-tax EV drivers in London to wake up and smell the coffee? Increased charging is incoming, just as was always was going to happen.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-vehicle...

As ever with climate hysteria and saving the planet - follow the money!
We’re a bit slow, aren’t we…

samoht said:
https://www.westminster.gov.uk/sites/default/files...

Current annual resident permit is £166, or £117.50 for engines under 1200cc, EVs free.
The proposal is to put EVs into two lower bands of £40 or £80 for the year, the lower band for battery sizes under 70 kWh.

So a better summary might be 'Cash-strapped council considering charging residents for EV parking permits at 25% or 50% of the ICE rate depending on battery size".

Separately, for hourly on-street parking the current exemption which allows EVs to be parked for the maximum period after buying the minimum available ticket is to be withdrawn; EVs will now be charged £4.62 an hour to park, compared to a minimum of £5.28 an hour for the lowest-emitting ICEs.

Basically as with central govt they can see their revenue running away as people shift to EVs, so are taking steps to shore it up.
It was me who brought this breaking news to the EV driving community. So hot, it’ll melt your moccasins and boil your vegan smoothies!

wormus said:
This’ll most likely generate lots of passive aggression from the usual suspects, hopefully directed towards the mayor of London

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/28/electr...

“ Vehicles with larger batteries are set to pay more due to having a higher carbon footprint during their construction, taking up more space and causing more wear and tear to the road.”

At last, some sense. Tax these monsters off the road.

Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 28th November 17:40
“Westminster city council’s new rules will see an eight-hour stay cost £36.96 – an 1,800 per cent increase on £1.93 motorists currently pay”



samoht

5,803 posts

148 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
Sorry, had not seen that. Just goes to show though that EV's will probably not be competitive in the future on cost grounds. Electricity will be getting a lot more expensive in the future for following reasons:

1. To pay for and invest in the huge infrastructure changes required to transition to renewables - including government subsidies etc.
2. Because the demand on our electrical grid (due to changes in business, household and transport usage) will increase exponentially.
3. Due to (in the absence of investment in significant nuclear or electrical storage capacity) the maintenance of a large fossil fuel backup that will be required for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
4. Having to import more expensive energy from other countries if any of the above can not be achieved.

Also, the government will want to recoup any lost revenue with schemes such as the above, in addition to dynamic road pricing etc.

I wonder then whether those EV buyers spending 10's of thousands on luxury EV's, and loosing a significant portion of that spend in depreciation in the first year or two, just so that they are able to brag about saving a few thousand on fuel and tax bills, will finally be a thing of the past?
The perks of free/ultra-cheap parking, congestion charge etc are absolutely going away.

However the principal benefit is cheap fuel, which is likely to endure.

It's difficult for a government to permit much higher electricity prices because people depend on it for daily essentials. When wholesale prices soared, governments were compelled to subsidise it to limit the rise. That tells us something about the political acceptability of much higher electricity prices.

Unlike oil where the government can impose a higher tax on fuel for road transport, they can't distinguish between my electric cooker and my EV granny charger, they're both just plugged into a socket in the house and taxed at the same low rate. In tax terms it's like running on red diesel, except Jeremy Hunt has no way of dyeing the electrons.

Additionally, EVs have the benefit of being easily load-shiftable so they can charge when there is surplus electricity at times of low load.

EVs are very competitive with petrol currently at the standard domestic electricity rate, and much cheaper when charged off-peak. It's hard to imagine a future where that competitive advantage vs petrol is nullified.

SDK

928 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
samoht said:
The perks of free/ultra-cheap parking, congestion charge etc are absolutely going away.

However the principal benefit is cheap fuel, which is likely to endure.

It's difficult for a government to permit much higher electricity prices because people depend on it for daily essentials. When wholesale prices soared, governments were compelled to subsidise it to limit the rise. That tells us something about the political acceptability of much higher electricity prices.

Unlike oil where the government can impose a higher tax on fuel for road transport, they can't distinguish between my electric cooker and my EV granny charger, they're both just plugged into a socket in the house and taxed at the same low rate. In tax terms it's like running on red diesel, except Jeremy Hunt has no way of dyeing the electrons.

Additionally, EVs have the benefit of being easily load-shiftable so they can charge when there is surplus electricity at times of low load.

EVs are very competitive with petrol currently at the standard domestic electricity rate, and much cheaper when charged off-peak. It's hard to imagine a future where that competitive advantage vs petrol is nullified.
^^^ well said ! smile

FiF

44,312 posts

253 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
To summarise.
1. There is no money, or more accurately not sufficient money for all the things that the nation would like to do, plus everything you spend results in an opportunity cost.
2. Motoring and road transport, like it or not, has been for years seen as low down on priorities, that is not likely to change. Why that is and should it be so is for another thread.
3. Ref to pt 1 carrots are being removed, so stick is going to be applied ever harder to encourage change.
4. Against this income will reduce due to less duty and vat from decreasing petrol and diesel sales.
5. Recovering that lost income by eg duty onto electricity for EVs is problematic, possibly unfair and will meet resistance.
6. Again ref to Pt 1 that means increased tax recovery by various means which will also attract resistance, and in some cases may not actually be that efficient. For example road use charging has been met by significant adverse comment every time the subject raised. One of the valid criticisms is that currently filling station vendors act as an effective and cheap tax collector for the state. Road use charging with all the millions of accounts required, tracking, billing or however it works will be expensive.
7. Expect very big sticks to be applied towards ICE vehicles in the future.

plfrench

2,437 posts

270 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
FiF said:
To summarise.
1. There is no money, or more accurately not sufficient money for all the things that the nation would like to do, plus everything you spend results in an opportunity cost.
2. Motoring and road transport, like it or not, has been for years seen as low down on priorities, that is not likely to change. Why that is and should it be so is for another thread.
3. Ref to pt 1 carrots are being removed, so stick is going to be applied ever harder to encourage change.
4. Against this income will reduce due to less duty and vat from decreasing petrol and diesel sales.
5. Recovering that lost income by eg duty onto electricity for EVs is problematic, possibly unfair and will meet resistance.
6. Again ref to Pt 1 that means increased tax recovery by various means which will also attract resistance, and in some cases may not actually be that efficient. For example road use charging has been met by significant adverse comment every time the subject raised. One of the valid criticisms is that currently filling station vendors act as an effective and cheap tax collector for the state. Road use charging with all the millions of accounts required, tracking, billing or however it works will be expensive.
7. Expect very big sticks to be applied towards ICE vehicles in the future.
Couldn't they use the energy companies who offer beneficial EV charging rates to become the new tax collectors ala your point 6 and filling stations doing this now. i.e. Ovo Anytime tariff is currently 7p/kWh for EV charging (via Smart Meter and Car talking to one another). Increase this to 10p/ kWh and give that 3p/kWh to the government.

Obviously sums can be tweaked - but that would give best of both worlds; demand control through being able to jettison excess energy usefully during excess generation periods (i.e. overnight), whilst also a fair 'taxing' of use-based consumption.

FiF

44,312 posts

253 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
plfrench said:
Couldn't they use the energy companies who offer beneficial EV charging rates to become the new tax collectors ala your point 6 and filling stations doing this now. i.e. Ovo Anytime tariff is currently 7p/kWh for EV charging (via Smart Meter and Car talking to one another). Increase this to 10p/ kWh and give that 3p/kWh to the government.

Obviously sums can be tweaked - but that would give best of both worlds; demand control through being able to jettison excess energy usefully during excess generation periods (i.e. overnight), whilst also a fair 'taxing' of use-based consumption.
I think something like that is the only way they could replace it. Doesn't deal with those who charge other ways though it might increase installations of PV solar panels, storage and charging that way.

Somewhat cynically considering the smart meter rollout balls up and various other big projects, do we have any confidence that this could be implemented in any reasonable way. On current performance unsure.

Apologies for the FUD but I can just see some poor sod running around in a classic paying through nose for a) increased road fuel duty b) some additional bodge on electricity pricing c) Road use or other charges like ULEZ, increased parking what have you.

Very jaundiced view re govt and roads. Per my point 2, why do 'they' not accept that roads are the arteries and veins for the national lifeblood, or at minimum a very important component.

plfrench

2,437 posts

270 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
FiF said:
plfrench said:
Couldn't they use the energy companies who offer beneficial EV charging rates to become the new tax collectors ala your point 6 and filling stations doing this now. i.e. Ovo Anytime tariff is currently 7p/kWh for EV charging (via Smart Meter and Car talking to one another). Increase this to 10p/ kWh and give that 3p/kWh to the government.

Obviously sums can be tweaked - but that would give best of both worlds; demand control through being able to jettison excess energy usefully during excess generation periods (i.e. overnight), whilst also a fair 'taxing' of use-based consumption.
I think something like that is the only way they could replace it. Doesn't deal with those who charge other ways though it might increase installations of PV solar panels, storage and charging that way.

Somewhat cynically considering the smart meter rollout balls up and various other big projects, do we have any confidence that this could be implemented in any reasonable way. On current performance unsure.

Apologies for the FUD but I can just see some poor sod running around in a classic paying through nose for a) increased road fuel duty b) some additional bodge on electricity pricing c) Road use or other charges like ULEZ, increased parking what have you.

Very jaundiced view re govt and roads. Per my point 2, why do 'they' not accept that roads are the arteries and veins for the national lifeblood, or at minimum a very important component.
It would keep it simple and drive up Smart meter adoption though - if people don't want to be part of it, then they'll swerve the 'taxation', but they'll be paying through the nose comparatively. i.e. charging at home via non-smart meter for me would currently cost 25.4 p/kWh vs 7p/kWh hour 'smartly'. If that became 10p/kWh hour, or even 15p/kWh, then I'd be cutting my nose of to spite my face to avoid the taxation aspect. For public chargers, it would be easy to add a flat x p/kWh that is gathered by government.

Overall though, the benefits of getting the population off of oil-based fuelling for the long term economic benefits will pay dividends to UK plc bottom line - if people are wasting less money paying for oil from other countries in the future, then more money will be available to spend on other things keeping broader VAT revenue up etc. Also, exporting excess electricity in the future will bring it's own revenue benefits.

CivicDuties

5,009 posts

32 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
FiF said:
plfrench said:
Couldn't they use the energy companies who offer beneficial EV charging rates to become the new tax collectors ala your point 6 and filling stations doing this now. i.e. Ovo Anytime tariff is currently 7p/kWh for EV charging (via Smart Meter and Car talking to one another). Increase this to 10p/ kWh and give that 3p/kWh to the government.

Obviously sums can be tweaked - but that would give best of both worlds; demand control through being able to jettison excess energy usefully during excess generation periods (i.e. overnight), whilst also a fair 'taxing' of use-based consumption.
I think something like that is the only way they could replace it. Doesn't deal with those who charge other ways though it might increase installations of PV solar panels, storage and charging that way.

Somewhat cynically considering the smart meter rollout balls up and various other big projects, do we have any confidence that this could be implemented in any reasonable way. On current performance unsure.

Apologies for the FUD but I can just see some poor sod running around in a classic paying through nose for a) increased road fuel duty b) some additional bodge on electricity pricing c) Road use or other charges like ULEZ, increased parking what have you.

Very jaundiced view re govt and roads. Per my point 2, why do 'they' not accept that roads are the arteries and veins for the national lifeblood, or at minimum a very important component.
Put a levy on cheap overnight rates and you'll be taxing people running their washing machines, dishwashers etc overnight.

MrTrilby

961 posts

284 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
wormus said:
Indeed, desperate isn’t it? Meanwhile large corporations plunder the earth for lithium, starving communities of their water supply. Nothing green about building EVs.

https://www.ft.com/video/b6908d24-0c39-425c-a1ed-6...
No manufacturing is properly “green”. You’ll always be able to find reasons to criticise it. The key issue is it is less damaging than the alternative.

If you’re worried about water then you might want to take a quick Google to see the damage done to places like the Niger delta by fossil fuel extraction. The scale of damage there is a whole different league to moaning about the damage caused by mining required to make some types of battery used by some types of EV.

Far more of the problems associated with making using EVs are addressable and are being addressed. The most damaging problems associated with ICE cars have been with us for decades with only token efforts to fix the few issues that could be mitigated.

520TORQUES

4,888 posts

17 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
The annual the daily electricity demand of the country is projected to increase by over 60 percent by 2035. I would be interested if you could tell me where that extra electricity is going to come from considering that the lead time (planning and construction) for a new nuclear power station is at least 10 years?

Also, how do you propose to generate power here in the UK when the wind doesn't blow and the sun does not shine? Nuclear is of course the answer, but in the absence of any meaningful plans on the horizon, where would we get our power from?
Gas

SDK

928 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
The annual the daily electricity demand of the country is projected to increase by over 60 percent by 2035. I would be interested if you could tell me where that extra electricity is going to come from considering that the lead time (planning and construction) for a new nuclear power station is at least 10 years?

Also, how do you propose to generate power here in the UK when the wind doesn't blow and the sun does not shine? Nuclear is of course the answer, but in the absence of any meaningful plans on the horizon, where would we get our power from?
All of these questions are answered in my teams document :Future Energy Scenarios - https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/futu...

In summary - a significant increase in offshore wind & solar and using Gas with Carbon Capture as the backup.


From this in 2023




To this in 2050







Edited by SDK on Wednesday 29th November 13:52


Edited by SDK on Wednesday 29th November 13:57

FiF

44,312 posts

253 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
CivicDuties said:
Put a levy on cheap overnight rates and you'll be taxing people running their washing machines, dishwashers etc overnight.
Which is my point that it's not just straightforward as putting a levy on cheaper rates. There would presumably be some need to identify the power used for vehicles charging. Separate metered charging facilities maybe? Metering through the vehicle itself maybe. Back to millions of account records, billing, potential officialdom fustercluck.

Also whilst one might come up with a solution that sort of works once the changeover is well on the way to completion. But we have years of a very mixed fleet.

Let's face things EV drivers are already complaining about the end of reduced VED in 2025 introduced in the recent autumn statement where ultimately they will be same rate as ICE apart from first year, at least for now.. Plus the freezing of the >£40,000 luxury car tax "cynical laugh" means that most EVs cop for that too. Thus complaints starting that in reality EV owners will be paying significantly more than same ICE vehicle.

This is all entirely of Govt's making, and it's complicated, but completely understand why both EV and ICE sales have dropped, people don't like making big commitments surrounded by uncertainty.

loudlashadjuster

5,211 posts

186 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
So the projected future energy requirements of the UK are by most metrics predicted to increase, but your scenario there has them falling?
That resource is literally the National Grid. I’d like to think they know a little about how electricity is produced, and how they plan to manage that in the future.

Yours is an investment fund blog which I could charitably describe as ‘somewhat partisan’.

plfrench

2,437 posts

270 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
FiF said:
CivicDuties said:
Put a levy on cheap overnight rates and you'll be taxing people running their washing machines, dishwashers etc overnight.
Which is my point that it's not just straightforward as putting a levy on cheaper rates. There would presumably be some need to identify the power used for vehicles charging. Separate metered charging facilities maybe? Metering through the vehicle itself maybe. Back to millions of account records, billing, potential officialdom fustercluck.

Also whilst one might come up with a solution that sort of works once the changeover is well on the way to completion. But we have years of a very mixed fleet.

Let's face things EV drivers are already complaining about the end of reduced VED in 2025 introduced in the recent autumn statement where ultimately they will be same rate as ICE apart from first year, at least for now.. Plus the freezing of the >£40,000 luxury car tax "cynical laugh" means that most EVs cop for that too. Thus complaints starting that in reality EV owners will be paying significantly more than same ICE vehicle.

This is all entirely of Govt's making, and it's complicated, but completely understand why both EV and ICE sales have dropped, people don't like making big commitments surrounded by uncertainty.
This is why I mentioned the likes of Ovo Anytime where the Smart meter and car talk - this is exactly how Ovo credit me back for the difference between my household use and the car's charge. It's how the system works now, so completely doable. The amount of energy taken by the car is known, and the total energy supplied to the property is known. So in the same way as I'm currently credited 18 odd p/kWh for each unit I put into the car at the end of the month, they can provide an amount to the government. They've done the hard bit, adding a bit on to pay the government from the account would be an easy add on. It won't affect non-car electricity cost at the property.







autumnsum

410 posts

33 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
DriveSnowdonia said:
The annual the daily electricity demand of the country is projected to increase by over 60 percent by 2035.
When did the national grid say that? Peak demand was back in 2002 and it's fallen ever since.

They made a special page just for people like you, maybe you should read it.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-ne...

Let us know your thoughts once you've read it and if you're going to go back and edit your posts...

FiF

44,312 posts

253 months

Wednesday 29th November 2023
quotequote all
plfrench said:
FiF said:
CivicDuties said:
Put a levy on cheap overnight rates and you'll be taxing people running their washing machines, dishwashers etc overnight.
Which is my point that it's not just straightforward as putting a levy on cheaper rates. There would presumably be some need to identify the power used for vehicles charging. Separate metered charging facilities maybe? Metering through the vehicle itself maybe. Back to millions of account records, billing, potential officialdom fustercluck.

Also whilst one might come up with a solution that sort of works once the changeover is well on the way to completion. But we have years of a very mixed fleet.

Let's face things EV drivers are already complaining about the end of reduced VED in 2025 introduced in the recent autumn statement where ultimately they will be same rate as ICE apart from first year, at least for now.. Plus the freezing of the >£40,000 luxury car tax "cynical laugh" means that most EVs cop for that too. Thus complaints starting that in reality EV owners will be paying significantly more than same ICE vehicle.

This is all entirely of Govt's making, and it's complicated, but completely understand why both EV and ICE sales have dropped, people don't like making big commitments surrounded by uncertainty.
This is why I mentioned the likes of Ovo Anytime where the Smart meter and car talk - this is exactly how Ovo credit me back for the difference between my household use and the car's charge. It's how the system works now, so completely doable. The amount of energy taken by the car is known, and the total energy supplied to the property is known. So in the same way as I'm currently credited 18 odd p/kWh for each unit I put into the car at the end of the month, they can provide an amount to the government. They've done the hard bit, adding a bit on to pay the government from the account would be an easy add on. It won't affect non-car electricity cost at the property.






Out of interest is this through a separate car charge point or could that smart meter <> car communication work through a 3 pin domestic outlet.

Edited to add is it controversial to suggest that if taxation is related to purely paying the infrastructure etc for a vehicle to be driven on public roads then you need to ensure that the same amount is paid by someone in a house with a driveway and PV solar panels on the roof, vs someone living in a flat, charging on public chargers, no solar panels etc.

Edited by FiF on Wednesday 29th November 17:36