When will used car prices drop?
Discussion
Who knows what the new normal will be? I’ve been doing lots of reading. Here’s my rough guess.
It could be that C-19 will be around for 2 to 3 years with social distancing and wearing a face mask becoming a normal day to day fact of life. We shouldn’t plan on an effective vaccine riding to the rescue.
As supply chains are shot to pieces, the supply of new cars will be affected for at least 6 months and we can then expect ‘wave 2’ to hit us in the autumn. Hopefully we will be better prepared with enough ventilators and PPE this time. But expect another lockdown (or type of lockdown). The new car PCP and finance deals the country has been enjoying will become harder to find as the over supply of new cars won’t be happening for some time.
Porsche isn’t like most manufacturers, but even they won’t be able to shift as many Macans and Cayennes, so they will be planning to reduce their expected build targets. 911 volumes will probably hold up, but 718s?
Some larger mass market dealer chains were already teetering on the edge. They will have to close as the UK big banks won’t have money to chuck away. We can therefore expect less dealers. I suspect some OPCs won’t make it in their current form. Any significant debt they have is probably through the VAG Bank, but even that isn’t a charity, and there is only so far a loan can be restructured.
I’d expect the second hand car market to soften quite badly for the first 3 months or so of release from lockdown, but will then start to strengthen as people start to adjust to the new normal. I’d expect overs for most models to be a distant memory by the end of this year, with some crashing in value quite badly. However, the real low volume specials will probably stay quite strong as we will likely never see the same again. Will Maclaren still be around in 12 months? Their Saudi backers will probably ensure they are, but I bet their model range will look very different.
Just my two-penneth. But then my crystal ball is looking a bit cloudy at the moment - I expected the markets to crash again last week…
It could be that C-19 will be around for 2 to 3 years with social distancing and wearing a face mask becoming a normal day to day fact of life. We shouldn’t plan on an effective vaccine riding to the rescue.
As supply chains are shot to pieces, the supply of new cars will be affected for at least 6 months and we can then expect ‘wave 2’ to hit us in the autumn. Hopefully we will be better prepared with enough ventilators and PPE this time. But expect another lockdown (or type of lockdown). The new car PCP and finance deals the country has been enjoying will become harder to find as the over supply of new cars won’t be happening for some time.
Porsche isn’t like most manufacturers, but even they won’t be able to shift as many Macans and Cayennes, so they will be planning to reduce their expected build targets. 911 volumes will probably hold up, but 718s?
Some larger mass market dealer chains were already teetering on the edge. They will have to close as the UK big banks won’t have money to chuck away. We can therefore expect less dealers. I suspect some OPCs won’t make it in their current form. Any significant debt they have is probably through the VAG Bank, but even that isn’t a charity, and there is only so far a loan can be restructured.
I’d expect the second hand car market to soften quite badly for the first 3 months or so of release from lockdown, but will then start to strengthen as people start to adjust to the new normal. I’d expect overs for most models to be a distant memory by the end of this year, with some crashing in value quite badly. However, the real low volume specials will probably stay quite strong as we will likely never see the same again. Will Maclaren still be around in 12 months? Their Saudi backers will probably ensure they are, but I bet their model range will look very different.
Just my two-penneth. But then my crystal ball is looking a bit cloudy at the moment - I expected the markets to crash again last week…
We have a 3 year old high specced low milage JCW mini that we where going to sell pre lockdown due to a new inbound car which is now stuck at the port. I had it on with motorway who estimated £15,500 (AT have them much higher) and within two days the best I could get was £13,500 which I accepted thinking that we would be locked down for three months so it would loose money anyway as well as the cost of insurance and tax. I also enquired at numerous dealers directly and no one wanted it and said they had stopped buying cars.
Motorway cancelled the purchase on the Friday before lockdown but the dealer still wanted to come and get the car but I wasn't prepared to go for a drive with him with the social distancing guidance. Even a week later he wanted to check if he could get it once this is over. Who knows what will happen but until lockdown is eased there is no market as far as I can see.
Motorway cancelled the purchase on the Friday before lockdown but the dealer still wanted to come and get the car but I wasn't prepared to go for a drive with him with the social distancing guidance. Even a week later he wanted to check if he could get it once this is over. Who knows what will happen but until lockdown is eased there is no market as far as I can see.
mattybrown said:
We have a 3 year old high specced low milage JCW mini that we where going to sell pre lockdown due to a new inbound car which is now stuck at the port. I had it on with motorway who estimated £15,500 (AT have them much higher) and within two days the best I could get was £13,500 which I accepted thinking that we would be locked down for three months so it would loose money anyway as well as the cost of insurance and tax. I also enquired at numerous dealers directly and no one wanted it and said they had stopped buying cars
Ha, I'm snooping around first gen supercharged JCW Mini's as a base for track car with a mate.There's more to the car world than just Porsche...and some crazy good value out there too!!
Andyoz said:
Ha, I'm snooping around first gen supercharged JCW Mini's as a base for track car with a mate.
There's more to the car world than just Porsche...and some crazy good value out there too!!
Will be sad when it goes but a bit of a family car swap around with a 992 incoming. Seriously good car and brings a smile every time you get in it.There's more to the car world than just Porsche...and some crazy good value out there too!!
Cabsi said:
Who knows what the new normal will be? I’ve been doing lots of reading. Here’s my rough guess.
It could be that C-19 will be around for 2 to 3 years with social distancing and wearing a face mask becoming a normal day to day fact of life. We shouldn’t plan on an effective vaccine riding to the rescue.
As supply chains are shot to pieces, the supply of new cars will be affected for at least 6 months and we can then expect ‘wave 2’ to hit us in the autumn. Hopefully we will be better prepared with enough ventilators and PPE this time. But expect another lockdown (or type of lockdown). The new car PCP and finance deals the country has been enjoying will become harder to find as the over supply of new cars won’t be happening for some time.
Porsche isn’t like most manufacturers, but even they won’t be able to shift as many Macans and Cayennes, so they will be planning to reduce their expected build targets. 911 volumes will probably hold up, but 718s?
Some larger mass market dealer chains were already teetering on the edge. They will have to close as the UK big banks won’t have money to chuck away. We can therefore expect less dealers. I suspect some OPCs won’t make it in their current form. Any significant debt they have is probably through the VAG Bank, but even that isn’t a charity, and there is only so far a loan can be restructured.
I’d expect the second hand car market to soften quite badly for the first 3 months or so of release from lockdown, but will then start to strengthen as people start to adjust to the new normal. I’d expect overs for most models to be a distant memory by the end of this year, with some crashing in value quite badly. However, the real low volume specials will probably stay quite strong as we will likely never see the same again. Will Maclaren still be around in 12 months? Their Saudi backers will probably ensure they are, but I bet their model range will look very different.
Just my two-penneth. But then my crystal ball is looking a bit cloudy at the moment - I expected the markets to crash again last week…
Don’t underestimate the impact of helicopter money. I suspect the ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ to keep the European car industry going, just to support jobs and GDP, even if that economic activity is ultimately propped up by EU/state support. The multiplier effect of the car industry is huge and they’ll do whatever they can to keep that going. It could be that C-19 will be around for 2 to 3 years with social distancing and wearing a face mask becoming a normal day to day fact of life. We shouldn’t plan on an effective vaccine riding to the rescue.
As supply chains are shot to pieces, the supply of new cars will be affected for at least 6 months and we can then expect ‘wave 2’ to hit us in the autumn. Hopefully we will be better prepared with enough ventilators and PPE this time. But expect another lockdown (or type of lockdown). The new car PCP and finance deals the country has been enjoying will become harder to find as the over supply of new cars won’t be happening for some time.
Porsche isn’t like most manufacturers, but even they won’t be able to shift as many Macans and Cayennes, so they will be planning to reduce their expected build targets. 911 volumes will probably hold up, but 718s?
Some larger mass market dealer chains were already teetering on the edge. They will have to close as the UK big banks won’t have money to chuck away. We can therefore expect less dealers. I suspect some OPCs won’t make it in their current form. Any significant debt they have is probably through the VAG Bank, but even that isn’t a charity, and there is only so far a loan can be restructured.
I’d expect the second hand car market to soften quite badly for the first 3 months or so of release from lockdown, but will then start to strengthen as people start to adjust to the new normal. I’d expect overs for most models to be a distant memory by the end of this year, with some crashing in value quite badly. However, the real low volume specials will probably stay quite strong as we will likely never see the same again. Will Maclaren still be around in 12 months? Their Saudi backers will probably ensure they are, but I bet their model range will look very different.
Just my two-penneth. But then my crystal ball is looking a bit cloudy at the moment - I expected the markets to crash again last week…
Mosdef said:
If you restrict credit - as you seem to think is a good idea - vast sections of the economy will contract (particularly those house builders who depend entirely on credit markets). Car makers won’t be able to shift any of the products they’ve spent fortunes developing.
I agree with the principle of living within ones means but unwinding debt levels as you suggest will have some dire fallout. Careful what you wish for.
I wish people lived within their means, I do.I agree with the principle of living within ones means but unwinding debt levels as you suggest will have some dire fallout. Careful what you wish for.
If you cannot afford to buy a car on a 5 year loan you cannot really afford the car, it’s that simple.
Have you seen past VW profits, we live in a rip of world these days. OPC been taking the piss for 5 to 6 years now.
Country has gone to s
t, driven by GREED so I do wish for a bit of normalisation. All OEM’s survive on volume...if VW and Porsche didn’t have the volumes they do because of finance we’d probably not have the cars we love driving. Certainly as has been said many times Porsche Sports Cars would not exist without the SUV’s....I’d imagine 80 to 90% of those are financed.
Mosdef said:
Don’t underestimate the impact of helicopter money. I suspect the ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ to keep the European car industry going, just to support jobs and GDP, even if that economic activity is ultimately propped up by EU/state support. The multiplier effect of the car industry is huge and they’ll do whatever they can to keep that going.
The UK has had £4 billion a year since January 2011 in helicopter money. It was called PPI compensation and that's now finished.They will try and use 'QE Infinity', or whatever they label it, to pump more money into the economy. But that just increases national debt. And the interest needs to be paid, even if it is at a low rate, or the house of cards just comes tumbling down. Not an easy balancing act.
Porsche911R said:
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !!
"
Am I missing something? Dividend as wages is still taxed, & this on top of corporate tax. First couple grand tax free, but quickly jumps up to 32.5 & 38%, on top 19% corporate tax ."
Edited by Porsche911R on Saturday 18th April 10:49
Would be made for fat cats to take divs.
I've been monitoring Porsche Approved Used closely: no changes noticed (so far).
A 50k mile 4 previous owner 2012 plain convertable 911 Carrera with the least attractive looks/interior is still priced at good old £47k. And it's the cheapest by far.
A 50k mile 4 previous owner 2012 plain convertable 911 Carrera with the least attractive looks/interior is still priced at good old £47k. And it's the cheapest by far.
Edited by vahe on Saturday 18th April 21:50
vahe said:
I've been monitoring Porsche Approved Used closely: no changes noticed (so far).
A 50k mile 4 previous owner 2012 plain convertable 911 Carrera with the least attractive looks/interior is still priced at good old £47k. And it's the cheapest by far.
No need to change anything at the present , whats the point of buying a car that you cant really drive for the next month? It will be after we come out of lockdown that things will need to changeA 50k mile 4 previous owner 2012 plain convertable 911 Carrera with the least attractive looks/interior is still priced at good old £47k. And it's the cheapest by far.
Edited by vahe on Saturday 18th April 21:50
Robbo66 said:
Spike ?....seriously ?...
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
I fear you are bang on correct. Along with everything Cmoose is saying too.There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
The lockdown is the easy part. I'm dreading going back. There will be minimal orders....and most probably clients going bust owning me money. Getting a 20% discount on a 718 GT4 wouldn't be enough incentive for me to buy one! Cash will be king, and I'd rather be buying things that might actually appreciate than depreciate. This whole nightmare will probably speed up the demise in value of the combustion engine car for good.
Edited by FrankCayman on Saturday 18th April 23:35
woollyjoe said:
tedblog said:
woollyjoe said:
Interesting that when dieselgate hit, used car prices stayed strong because less new car sales and less total movement.
Used diesel prices dropped , just ask anyone with a diesel Macan, and new diesel sales have been on the decline ever since.tedblog said:
woollyjoe said:
tedblog said:
woollyjoe said:
Interesting that when dieselgate hit, used car prices stayed strong because less new car sales and less total movement.
Used diesel prices dropped , just ask anyone with a diesel Macan, and new diesel sales have been on the decline ever since.Robbo66 said:
Spike ?....seriously ?...
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
Totally agree, including the last bit. We're in suspended animation at the moment. There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
Well here is some data....dealers are starting to use Collecting Cars. Dove House put this 991 up for sale last week
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2014-porsche-9... Sold for £51.5 k was up for £58k on their website. Assuming they would have sold it for £2k less i.e. £56k if someone had walked in their showroom that’s a circa 10% drop in price.
https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1442-porsche-911...
I think they got a result selling it for that too....dodgy colour combo !
They’ve got two more cars coming
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2011-porsche-9...
Up for £48.9k.on their website. https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1453-porsche-911...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2013-porsche-9...
Up for £57.9k on their website https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1458-porsche-911...
There are a couple of other cars coming which will be interesting. 812 Superfast, 720s...both of which were “bad news” in the trade before we’d heard of Covid 19.
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2014-porsche-9... Sold for £51.5 k was up for £58k on their website. Assuming they would have sold it for £2k less i.e. £56k if someone had walked in their showroom that’s a circa 10% drop in price.
https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1442-porsche-911...
I think they got a result selling it for that too....dodgy colour combo !
They’ve got two more cars coming
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2011-porsche-9...
Up for £48.9k.on their website. https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1453-porsche-911...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2013-porsche-9...
Up for £57.9k on their website https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1458-porsche-911...
There are a couple of other cars coming which will be interesting. 812 Superfast, 720s...both of which were “bad news” in the trade before we’d heard of Covid 19.
Cheib said:
Well here is some data....dealers are starting to use Collecting Cars. Dove House put this 991 up for sale last week
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2014-porsche-9... Sold for £51.5 k was up for £58k on their website. Assuming they would have sold it for £2k less i.e. £56k if someone had walked in their showroom that’s a circa 10% drop in price.
https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1442-porsche-911...
I think they got a result selling it for that too....dodgy colour combo !
They’ve got two more cars coming
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2011-porsche-9...
Up for £48.9k.on their website. https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1453-porsche-911...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2013-porsche-9...
Up for £57.9k on their website https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1458-porsche-911...
There are a couple of other cars coming which will be interesting. 812 Superfast, 720s...both of which were “bad news” in the trade before we’d heard of Covid 19.
Thanks for this.....my lord....the wood in that 991....yuk!https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2014-porsche-9... Sold for £51.5 k was up for £58k on their website. Assuming they would have sold it for £2k less i.e. £56k if someone had walked in their showroom that’s a circa 10% drop in price.
https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1442-porsche-911...
I think they got a result selling it for that too....dodgy colour combo !
They’ve got two more cars coming
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2011-porsche-9...
Up for £48.9k.on their website. https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1453-porsche-911...
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2013-porsche-9...
Up for £57.9k on their website https://www.dovehousecars.com/car/1458-porsche-911...
There are a couple of other cars coming which will be interesting. 812 Superfast, 720s...both of which were “bad news” in the trade before we’d heard of Covid 19.
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