AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
silentbrown said:
Jon39 said:
EDIT - Sorry Minglar, we were writing at the same time, about similar stuff.
Thanks, both 
Nice weekend all…..I’ve rabbited away on here more than enough for today!
Best Regards
Minglar
KevinBird said:
Sales won’t be helped by the Co Director in this mornings Q&A saying the ‘23 model year cars are a step on from todays offerings
When I heard LS talking about that, I thought he was going into far greater detail than is usual for the motor trade.
There is also the aspect they keep talking about, the desired (is it) 40% gross profit margin on each vehicle.
Therefore the revised models might also have list prices, which are 'a step on from todays offerings' !
We saw that with the mark 2 V12V. Adjusting for inflation, the new car probably cost 50% more than the original model. They told us they were all sold before launch though.
Beckson said:
Was there much of a price difference in the original V12V vs the later V12V 's' ?
A quick search reveals (might be right, or wrong);
New list prices at launch,
2009 V12V = £135,000 (2022 money = £216,000)
2013 V12VS = £138,000 (2022 money = £216,000)
Think V12VS was in production until 2018, so used values now of course higher than V12V.
Simpo Two said:
Where is the most money to be made, (a) die-hard fans of ICE, or (b) the rest? I suspect the latter, and you can't please everybody. ICE fans can own and enjoy the current ICE range for years/decades to come.
https://www.evo.co.uk/electric-cars/205006/lucid-air-dream-edition-2022-review-a-new-age-ev-to-keep-tesla-on-its-toesThis morning's tea break pondering: What if AML take a shortcut and rebody/trim that and bung an AM or Lagonda badge on it?
ferrisbueller said:
This morning's tea break pondering: What if AML take a shortcut and rebody/trim that and bung an AM or Lagonda badge on it?
It will be interesting to see how the Lucid company performs as a business. Profitability doesn't come quickly to start-up car manufacturers.
Tesla had first mover advantage for several years, but there now seem to be EV offerings from most of the traditional car makers.
Competition is increasing.
Jon39 said:
KevinBird said:
Sales won’t be helped by the Co Director in this mornings Q&A saying the ‘23 model year cars are a step on from todays offerings
When I heard LS talking about that, I thought he was going into far greater detail than is usual for the motor trade.
There is also the aspect they keep talking about, the desired (is it) 40% gross profit margin on each vehicle.
Therefore the revised models might also have list prices, which are 'a step on from todays offerings' !
We saw that with the mark 2 V12V. Adjusting for inflation, the new car probably cost 50% more than the original model. They told us they were all sold before launch though.
We need to be considering Laurence Stroll's endgame here. If the company is going down, is he somehow going to separate and retain the brand, to hawk out to anyone wanting to embellish their product with a sexy name?
And another thing.....
What's this baloney about 'a modern new interpretation of our iconic wings badge'. Is this a cost saving measure like Porsche's badge on GT RS models? If that is what they look like, I'm more than happy, massively relieved in fact, that my DB11 has got the old ones.
I'll be blunt, it looks s
t, and what does it achieve? Are they actively trying to destroy the company?
What's this baloney about 'a modern new interpretation of our iconic wings badge'. Is this a cost saving measure like Porsche's badge on GT RS models? If that is what they look like, I'm more than happy, massively relieved in fact, that my DB11 has got the old ones.
I'll be blunt, it looks s
t, and what does it achieve? Are they actively trying to destroy the company?Aldhun said:
A DB11 Volante with a V12 would sell...
Disagree. Ok, maybe 5 units but it doesn’t solve a thing. It would be too heavy, and people would complain about the markup. Probably less of a seller than a manual transmission Vantage, IMO. ( I.e. sort of a niche bragging rights product)I have no problem aesthetically with the current Aston lineup. And I don’t think I am in the minority. Maybe around here with entrenched owners of older cars but the new cars are beautiful all around. You don’t need look very far to see a lot of great press.
IMO, the real problem is twofold. 1) the tech is really outdated compared to peers. Sure it’s a giant leap forward compared to older Astons but for the price point, Aston is well behind the curve. 2) depreciation. A lot of guys who buy the entry level cars are very depreciation sensitive. This is why Porsche excels…ok…they make great cars too and have outstanding customer service but depreciation is a big issue for many people. I think Stroll trying to go “ order” only is a way to try to keep new inventory down and prices up a bit. AP really shot himself in the foot with stuffing the channel. I’m not sure if it was a ploy to pump up sales or Aston genuinely misjudged demand ( IIRC, initial orders were quite high and AP had big plans to boot. I think this could have easily led him astray.) Aston then ultimately screwed themselves out of further sales because discounting scared away depreciation sensitive buyers. It left the Vantage debut tainted.
Edited by GreasyHands on Tuesday 2nd August 15:21
GreasyHands said:
... AP really shot himself in the foot with stuffing the channel. I’m not sure if it was a ploy to pump up sales or Aston genuinely misjudged demand ( IIRC, initial orders were quite high and AP had big plans to boot. ...
The sale of the century PCP deal, was offered during November and December.
AML's financial year end is 31 December.
I thnik we can guess, why AP wanted better sales numbers to report.
The initial sales numbers, as with most new models, are boosted by dealer showroom cars and demonstrators.
The true demand then becomes clear, after all the dealer requirements have been fulfilled.
It would be really interesting to know what Stroll said to the Saudi PIF to get them to invest. I’m not a shareholder but definitely have a curiosity of Stroll’s vision/ plan going forward. Mostly because I just don’t see it. Maybe when the rights offering is initiated we’ll see something in the docs.
It was clear to me what Palmer was trying to do. He wanted a volume of about 14,000- 15,000 cars per year. His plan was to add the Lagonda sedans, electrification, hopefully get sales of 8000 units or so from the SUV and fill in the other 6000 with Sport/GT/other. Unfortunately, for various reasons that didn’t happen.
Now Stroll seems to be going more for fewer cars, higher margin, “Ultra-luxury”…LOL…oops…sorry.. Overall trying to out Ferrari Ferrari with the racing and out Bentley, Bentley with the luxury with less volume, lower budget and a fragile (?) Mercedes partnership. Not even clear to me if there is anything like a “partnership” or just a customer/supplier relationship.
It was clear to me what Palmer was trying to do. He wanted a volume of about 14,000- 15,000 cars per year. His plan was to add the Lagonda sedans, electrification, hopefully get sales of 8000 units or so from the SUV and fill in the other 6000 with Sport/GT/other. Unfortunately, for various reasons that didn’t happen.
Now Stroll seems to be going more for fewer cars, higher margin, “Ultra-luxury”…LOL…oops…sorry.. Overall trying to out Ferrari Ferrari with the racing and out Bentley, Bentley with the luxury with less volume, lower budget and a fragile (?) Mercedes partnership. Not even clear to me if there is anything like a “partnership” or just a customer/supplier relationship.
GreasyHands said:
It would be really interesting to know what Stroll said to the Saudi PIF to get them to invest. I’m not a shareholder but definitely have a curiosity of Stroll’s vision/ plan going forward. Mostly because I just don’t see it. Maybe when the rights offering is initiated we’ll see something in the docs.
There was the announcement about Aramco becoming a new additional sponsor of the privately owned, AM F1 team.
That was later followed by the AML capital raising proposal.
Purely coincidental, or do you think there might there be a connection ?
Ref. Stroll's vision.
Simple, the ambitious financial targets, continually repeated by LS, depend upon customers liking the products and buying them in sufficient quantities.
Unfortunately, it is work in progress with that.
Sports/GT sales numbers in 2021, were down on 2019. To avoid that embarrassment, the 2021 AML Annual Report, highlighted the big sales improvement from 2020 to 2021 for Sports/GT. Under the circumstances, most large companies reported comparisons of 2021 with 2019, but not AML.
Am sure you remember 2020. Car factories and dealers had to close for a time and huge numbers of people were isolating at home. Car sales were in freefall.
We see the facts, but hope for the best.
I think you asked in another thread if AML new models will have far higher prices.
Well, here is the simple math by Stroll.
10,000 units per year, £2B Revs/yr.
Assuming 90% of revs is from car sales, then that brings the ASP to £180k, up from the current £164k which is close, if not, a high already. Volume had been more or less stagnant for years and ASP has been outpacing inflation, I think, pretty strongly. I'm not sure AML have ever broken 7000 units per year, so higher price and higher volumes is a decent size ask, IMO. Even hoping the SUV is completely incremental growth of say 5000 units. AML would still need to sell 5000 "other" and I'm guessing a price higher than the £180k ASP. Pretty sure the ASP doesn't include dealer markup so "off the lot" price would still be higher.
I also thought I read somewhere that the PIF had a financial interest in the AM Racing Team. I'll see if I can find that reference, but it did not go into detail.
Edit: Corrected 162k to 164k
Well, here is the simple math by Stroll.
10,000 units per year, £2B Revs/yr.
Assuming 90% of revs is from car sales, then that brings the ASP to £180k, up from the current £164k which is close, if not, a high already. Volume had been more or less stagnant for years and ASP has been outpacing inflation, I think, pretty strongly. I'm not sure AML have ever broken 7000 units per year, so higher price and higher volumes is a decent size ask, IMO. Even hoping the SUV is completely incremental growth of say 5000 units. AML would still need to sell 5000 "other" and I'm guessing a price higher than the £180k ASP. Pretty sure the ASP doesn't include dealer markup so "off the lot" price would still be higher.
I also thought I read somewhere that the PIF had a financial interest in the AM Racing Team. I'll see if I can find that reference, but it did not go into detail.
Edit: Corrected 162k to 164k
Edited by GreasyHands on Thursday 4th August 00:05
GreasyHands said:
I think you asked in another thread if AML new models will have far higher prices.
Well, here is the simple math by Stroll.
10,000 units per year, £2B Revs/yr.
Assuming 90% of revs is from car sales, then that brings the ASP to £180k, up from the current £162k which is close, if not, a high already. Volume had been more or less stagnant for years and ASP has been outpacing inflation, I think, pretty strongly. I'm not sure AML have ever broken 7000 units per year, so higher price and higher volumes is a decent size ask, IMO. Even hoping the SUV is completely incremental growth of say 5000 units. AML would still need to sell 5000 "other" and I'm guessing a price higher than the £180k ASP. Pretty sure the ASP doesn't include dealer markup so "off the lot" price would still be higher.
I also thought I read somewhere that the PIF had a financial interest in the AM Racing Team. I'll see if I can find that reference, but it did not go into detail.
Well, here is the simple math by Stroll.
10,000 units per year, £2B Revs/yr.
Assuming 90% of revs is from car sales, then that brings the ASP to £180k, up from the current £162k which is close, if not, a high already. Volume had been more or less stagnant for years and ASP has been outpacing inflation, I think, pretty strongly. I'm not sure AML have ever broken 7000 units per year, so higher price and higher volumes is a decent size ask, IMO. Even hoping the SUV is completely incremental growth of say 5000 units. AML would still need to sell 5000 "other" and I'm guessing a price higher than the £180k ASP. Pretty sure the ASP doesn't include dealer markup so "off the lot" price would still be higher.
I also thought I read somewhere that the PIF had a financial interest in the AM Racing Team. I'll see if I can find that reference, but it did not go into detail.
Thank you.
The Gaydon annual production record set in 2007, was approx 7,200 (from memory. I do have the last two digits, but not immediately to hand).
At that time, they could not make the (VH) Vantage fast enough. Some customers had a very long wait. The DB9 was selling well too. New Vantage and DB11 numbers are way down on their predecessors (matching quarter by quarter), but I suppose markets have changed during those 15 years.
There is a pointer to 7,000 being about the limit for Gaydon. At that time an Austrian firm was given a contract to build the new Rapide model. They built the early cars. Ironically the 2008 financial crash arrived and there was then plenty of Gaydon capacity (and redundancies). The Austrian contract was terminated and assembly was transferred to Gaydon.
The cancelled orders and redundancies in 2008, must have slipped AP's mind, because he told everyone that luxury goods are resistant to economic downturns. Even if still being able to afford an expensive new car at that time, seeing sacked employees walking out of their offices holding cardboard boxes, must have had a restraining effect on the open display of wealth.
Just some filler in case anybody cares.
The units sold by AML in 2007 was 7281 with an average ASP of £70k. ( I know this is much more complicated than simple inflation calculator but using the BOE inflation calculator, this would be about £95.5K in 2021 dollars. A far cry from the £164K AML is currently getting)
Sales in 2008 slipped to 6088 units and then 3131 units in 2009. Sales pretty much stayed below 4000 annual units until the approx 5100 units of 2017. Then came the channel stuffing 6441 units of 2018 and subsequent fall. Even in 2009, AML maintained an ASP of £100K ( which using the inflation calculator is £128)
Looks like Aston is good for about 4000-5000 sports cars on average, historically. However, given how the AML ASP has risen so much, maybe one should be asking how they are able to sell so many cars rather than why aren't they selling more cars.
I never really paid attention to the Vantage back in 2007. I was and still remain a Porsche fan ( just based on ease of ownership and value). It would be interesting how a Vantage was priced in the peak sales years of 2007/08 vs a 911. Has the lowest priced car in the lineup gone up that much more than a 911 that it is a more difficult comparison? Is the real issue all at the bottom end of the Aston lineup? If so, it's hard to see how raising ASP solves a volume problem.
Seems like Aston needs the Vantage for sales to get to 10,000 annual units. Maybe they need 2000-2500 Vantages sold annually to make that number? If so, can they really do it with the current price and even higher? I think the Vantage is really challenged in this realm by Porsche. Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bentley..don't really seriously compete in the Porsche realm. I think they have all ceded that ground. They stay up in the higher bracket but this seems inconsistent with AML's past and unit sales desires.
In summary, the ASP goal says "We'll punt the Vantage" but the unit volume says "Oh my God, we really need that Vantage."
And I may have made an error regarding PIF and AM F1 since when I searched I found that PIF owned a stake in McLaren F1, so I may have mixed it up.
Just my meandering thoughts.
Edit: The more I think about this the more I realize just how useless the BOE calculator is for this. Might be cute but the f/x issues swamp inflation of the time period. Just so much apples to oranges.
The units sold by AML in 2007 was 7281 with an average ASP of £70k. ( I know this is much more complicated than simple inflation calculator but using the BOE inflation calculator, this would be about £95.5K in 2021 dollars. A far cry from the £164K AML is currently getting)
Sales in 2008 slipped to 6088 units and then 3131 units in 2009. Sales pretty much stayed below 4000 annual units until the approx 5100 units of 2017. Then came the channel stuffing 6441 units of 2018 and subsequent fall. Even in 2009, AML maintained an ASP of £100K ( which using the inflation calculator is £128)
Looks like Aston is good for about 4000-5000 sports cars on average, historically. However, given how the AML ASP has risen so much, maybe one should be asking how they are able to sell so many cars rather than why aren't they selling more cars.
I never really paid attention to the Vantage back in 2007. I was and still remain a Porsche fan ( just based on ease of ownership and value). It would be interesting how a Vantage was priced in the peak sales years of 2007/08 vs a 911. Has the lowest priced car in the lineup gone up that much more than a 911 that it is a more difficult comparison? Is the real issue all at the bottom end of the Aston lineup? If so, it's hard to see how raising ASP solves a volume problem.
Seems like Aston needs the Vantage for sales to get to 10,000 annual units. Maybe they need 2000-2500 Vantages sold annually to make that number? If so, can they really do it with the current price and even higher? I think the Vantage is really challenged in this realm by Porsche. Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bentley..don't really seriously compete in the Porsche realm. I think they have all ceded that ground. They stay up in the higher bracket but this seems inconsistent with AML's past and unit sales desires.
In summary, the ASP goal says "We'll punt the Vantage" but the unit volume says "Oh my God, we really need that Vantage."
And I may have made an error regarding PIF and AM F1 since when I searched I found that PIF owned a stake in McLaren F1, so I may have mixed it up.
Just my meandering thoughts.
Edit: The more I think about this the more I realize just how useless the BOE calculator is for this. Might be cute but the f/x issues swamp inflation of the time period. Just so much apples to oranges.
Edited by GreasyHands on Thursday 4th August 08:13
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