Z4M - Values

[lord trumpton]

Yes the market is slow.

All the usual suspects - Z4M, Z3M, 996 (C4S and Turbo) BMW 1M, 997 turbo, M3 CSL are being hit.

The reason why is because the prices of such have been driven up by an investor led boom and fuelled by ever increasing cheek from traders.

Now that there are economic tremors, the unknown brexit effect due and a general feeling the ship has sailed on the 'investables' then the investors are out and onto something else.

This has led to owners wanting to sell, dealers sitting on either stock or SOR cars and no market (other than regular joe enthusiasts) that is interested in continuing to fuel the fire.

So the current market is in decline, stock is taking root or being gradually reduced in value.

The issue is that a lot of the hum drum, average mile, higher owner count cars that have inadvertently been dragged up in value are no longer seen as great purchases for investment.

There will always be a market for the elite examples ie very low mile minters at the top end to temp the wealthy but overall the supply/demand ratio is upside down.

I'm a huge BMW fan and have owned many M cars over the years, but lets be honest the Z4M, whilst a good car was never lauded as spectacular when it was on sale. They generally chopped owners fairly frequently, criticised for the harsh ride and uncompromising 'bite you is you are not careful' handling. They were never an instant hit like the e46 M3 was.

Now the investors are running away then the Z4M will fall to more realistic values that will be determined by genuine enthusiasts and not the 'buy into now because its an affordable M car' investor.

[200Plus Club]

Similar to the Porsche 964. Criticised badly at launch and renowned for oil leaks, dealers have been selling them as the second coming for the last few years off the back of 993s etc and last of the aircooled.

[Welshbeef]

200Plus Club said:

Similar to the Porsche 964. Criticised badly at launch and renowned for oil leaks, dealers have been selling them as the second coming for the last few years off the back of 993s etc and last of the aircooled.

Same with F40S they were £120k Cars not that long ago then went Lala crazy.

Ditto the Dino from £30/40k to £300-500k.

275GTB4 went from £300k to £2-5m.

928’s even the ones which frankly should have been scrapped up into silly silly numbers.

Someone will get burnt - then when they get to a normalised level we can buy them again and use them as designed to.

[200Plus Club]

If there is a market correction £30k for a Z4MC will look expensive and a long long time before it's of value again. £20k for a mint car was where I was happy to get involved but with so few cars around to view I lost interest as prices soared, and they no longer look a bargain, just over priced a tad.
Currently I'm keeping out of this market for the foreseeable. The engine is what makes these special plus the look of the coupe, but time to watch and see.

[Welshbeef]

Does anyone remember how the last classic car bubble crashed duration rate of decrease and then how long before things normalised and volumes started started to sell.

I always hear from the Ferrari owners that this time it’s different we have a global market so much more buyers for the same numbers of cars and with a global market any recession another country would not be in recession so it balances out.

It was odd as at every meet I went to without question people were talking about which Ferrari will go next and what they must buy - oh and trying to convince me to buy (which I didn’t).

[anonymous-user]

Welshbeef said:

Does anyone remember how the last classic car bubble crashed duration rate of decrease and then how long before things normalised and volumes started started to sell.

I always hear from the Ferrari owners that this time it’s different we have a global market so much more buyers for the same numbers of cars and with a global market any recession another country would not be in recession so it balances out.

It was odd as at every meet I went to without question people were talking about which Ferrari will go next and what they must buy - oh and trying to convince me to buy (which I didn’t).

The early 90s we went into recession which in turn led to the downturn in the classic car market, there is no recession at the moment although uncertainty over Brexit causing a dip but not a collapse like the early 90s, whether it turns into a collapse no one's quite sure. What I do remember from the early 90s collapse was the period where dealers were still trying their luck for a year or so afterwards trying to get top dollar for their cars before they adjusted their prices accordingly. Be interesting as we enter Autumn/Winter how prices hold up and by Spring next year might have a better idea the state of the market.

[Welshbeef]

Raygun said:

The early 90s we went into recession which in turn led to the downturn in the classic car market, there is no recession at the moment although uncertainty over Brexit causing a dip but not a collapse like the early 90s, whether it turns into a collapse no one's quite sure. What I do remember from the early 90s collapse was the period where dealers were still trying their luck for a year or so afterwards trying to get top dollar for their cars before they adjusted their prices accordingly. Be interesting as we enter Autumn/Winter how prices hold up and by Spring next year might have a better idea the state of the market.

What drove the bubble last time?

This time is was cheap money and that other asset classes were not performing well + tax free and easy to move to different countries to sell if you wanted to.

Didn’t we have £1m F40’s drop to £100k or less and XJ220’s falling on their arse etc.

[200Plus Club]

Welshbeef said:

Does anyone remember how the last classic car bubble crashed duration rate of decrease and then how long before things normalised and volumes started started to sell.

I always hear from the Ferrari owners that this time it’s different we have a global market so much more buyers for the same numbers of cars and with a global market any recession another country would not be in recession so it balances out.

It was odd as at every meet I went to without question people were talking about which Ferrari will go next and what they must buy - oh and trying to convince me to buy (which I didn’t).

This time around it's also covering many other "modern classics" as the low interest savings rates have tempted people into buying more affordable lower prices cars. We've now seen £50-70k Renault Clio V6, £30k RS Turbos, £50-60k Escort cossies etc.
I don't know how the economy/interest rates correlate this time around compared to then.
The Z4M is one of a few modern era favourites that have seen a big bounce that might have been it's own mini bubble. My old 993S went for £76k a couple of years ago and private sellers are now asking for (not getting perhaps) £85-90k for the same car, dealers asking a bit more. At £100k will they be even driven/enjoyed or just stored like many are?

One to watch this next year to see if the same old Z4M are on sale still over winter.

[200Plus Club]

Raygun said:

The early 90s we went into recession which in turn led to the downturn in the classic car market, there is no recession at the moment although uncertainty over Brexit causing a dip but not a collapse like the early 90s, whether it turns into a collapse no one's quite sure. What I do remember from the early 90s collapse was the period where dealers were still trying their luck for a year or so afterwards trying to get top dollar for their cars before they adjusted their prices accordingly. Be interesting as we enter Autumn/Winter how prices hold up and by Spring next year might have a better idea the state of the market.

You beat me to it :-)
Unless brexit crashes the economy I think it will look a similar market but maybe a few more cars still for sale as people put their own sensible limit on what they will pay for a Z4m etc.