Germany's Budget Surplus

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John145

Original Poster:

2,449 posts

157 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
I was reading the economist at the Chunnel the other day and read an aggressive article on how the USA and France should tackle Germany's budget surplus.

I was surprised at the tone. Effectively saying France and the US are actively aiming to bring down Germany's budget surplus.

What're people's thoughts?

I always though Germany should be praised for their surplus however it is off the back of a weak defence budget they the US, France and the U.K. all prop up.

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
We can learn lessons from germany.

It is surely their approach to freedom of movement that is boosting their economy!

Proof that migrants increase GDP!! And for an EU country!!

smile

(take cover)


avinalarf

6,438 posts

143 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
We can learn lessons from germany.

It is surely their approach to freedom of movement that is boosting their economy!

Proof that migrants increase GDP!! And for an EU country!!

smile

(take cover)
18 months ago I was on a ferry to Ischia and got chatting to a German gentleman.
He turned out to be an industrialist owning and running a large company that made car parts for BMW and Mercedes.
He was obviously well connected and sung the praises of Merkyl and her open door policy as for him it provided a larger pool of labour to choose from and possibly one where labour rates would be lowered.
So I cannot make you wrong there ajd.
However you appear not to recognise that a large increase of immigrants in a short space of time can and does create difficulties for some of the existing population.
Now you can call those that say this xenophobes and racists and no doubt some will be.
However the great majority will just be ordinary Joes that are discombobulated by the sudden appearance of people from a different colour,religion and race with some practices that are alien to their own.
Especially in these times where terrorism is almost exclusively coming from the Muslim EXTREMISTS. Capital letters used for your benefit to clarify the fact that the majority of our Muslim neighbours are not extremists.
I would therefore suggest that had the movement of mainly economic immigrants been handled in a more sensible and sensitive fashion much of the backlash would have been avoided.

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
///ajd said:
We can learn lessons from germany.

It is surely their approach to freedom of movement that is boosting their economy!

Proof that migrants increase GDP!! And for an EU country!!

smile

(take cover)
18 months ago I was on a ferry to Ischia and got chatting to a German gentleman.
He turned out to be an industrialist owning and running a large company that made car parts for BMW and Mercedes.
He was obviously well connected and sung the praises of Merkyl and her open door policy as for him it provided a larger pool of labour to choose from and possibly one where labour rates would be lowered.
So I cannot make you wrong there ajd.
However you appear not to recognise that a large increase of immigrants in a short space of time can and does create difficulties for some of the existing population.
Now you can call those that say this xenophobes and racists and no doubt some will be.
However the great majority will just be ordinary Joes that are discombobulated by the sudden appearance of people from a different colour,religion and race with some practices that are alien to their own.
Especially in these times where terrorism is almost exclusively coming from the Muslim EXTREMISTS. Capital letters used for your benefit to clarify the fact that the majority of our Muslim neighbours are not extremists.
I would therefore suggest that had the movement of mainly economic immigrants been handled in a more sensible and sensitive fashion much of the backlash would have been avoided.
Not sure if you are serious.

Can you expand on the specific difficulties for the existing population?



Fastdruid

8,656 posts

153 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
They only have a surplus (which is over the limit set by the EU) because using the Euro means they are effectively artificially deflating their currency. So they get to sell high quality stuff at knock down prices.

The only losers are the Southern EU countries who get permanent austerity, massive unemployment and wages across the EZ dragged down to East European levels.

Germany needs to pay it's way, either the Eurozone needs to become a transfer union or end.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

255 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
Germany are sucking the financial life out of the rest of Europe (and skilled workers..).

In the short term its great for them. In the long term it will ruin Europe (and themselves) when everyone else runs out of coin.

avinalarf

6,438 posts

143 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Not sure if you are serious.

Can you expand on the specific difficulties for the existing population?
There will be different "difficulties" for different folk.
Some might call the people that have difficulties" xenophobic or racist,others might say that they are neither,just comfortable with the status quo.
Willing to absorb newcomers into their town/city but wanting that change in demographics to be slower and better managed with the infrastructure in place that could well cope with the changes being imposed upon them.
For example more schools,adequate health facilities etc. and the burden of supporting that increased cost of providing those facilities should not fall to heavily on them.
I truly do not understand how you can be so blinkered as not too recognise that for the good of all we have to try and work together and respect that there will be different attitudes to change.
What suits your idea of how one should behave to another may differ from another persons.
Both your PoV and another's PoV can be both relevant and respected.





Edited by avinalarf on Thursday 27th April 21:55

Jonesy23

4,650 posts

137 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Not sure if you are serious.

Can you expand on the specific difficulties for the existing population?
Are you really that simple? It isn't complicated!

A few random guesses:

Pressure on housing.
Pressure on heathcare.
Pressure on education facilities.
Increases required for spending to cope with needs of the new population eg. language services.
Pressure for jobs, particularly for lower income groups eg. unskilled labour.

And that's without getting into anything that might happen if the new people aren't well behaved and/or don't integrate.

dudleybloke

19,872 posts

187 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
We can learn lessons from germany.

It is surely their approach to freedom of movement that is boosting their economy!

Proof that migrants increase GDP!! And for an EU country!!

smile

(take cover)
Proof that a government who believes in manufacturing goods for export is a government with a good economy.

frisbee

4,984 posts

111 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
Jonesy23 said:
Are you really that simple? It isn't complicated!

A few random guesses:

Pressure on housing.
Pressure on heathcare.
Pressure on education facilities.
Increases required for spending to cope with needs of the new population eg. language services.
Pressure for jobs, particularly for lower income groups eg. unskilled labour.

And that's without getting into anything that might happen if the new people aren't well behaved and/or don't integrate.
Yep if they switch to a huge deficit like the UK then they will have none of those problems.

Murph7355

37,767 posts

257 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Germany are sucking the financial life out of the rest of Europe (and skilled workers..).

In the short term its great for them. In the long term it will ruin Europe (and themselves) when everyone else runs out of coin.
This.

The US, UK and France are low down on the payback list IMO. Though any country "targeting" 2% defence input ref NATO whilst running a surplus is taking the piss.

B'stard Child

28,453 posts

247 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Not sure if you are serious.

Can you expand on the specific difficulties for the existing population?
I would imagine the same issues raised by many on this forum before the referendum with antisocial behaviour and housing capacity in the UK and the problem with lack of intergration.

The same issues you dismissed as trivial and attempted to establish instead if it was a skin colour issue or a xenophobic tendency on the part of those who made the posts.

Same st different day with you

If this debate was around the Holocaust you would be one of those people that denied it happened at all

Change the record please it's very very broken

Otispunkmeyer

12,618 posts

156 months

Thursday 27th April 2017
quotequote all
I thought when we did well and made more money than planned the EU came knocking for more money and Cameron folded like a cheap suit?

Is the EU going cap in hand to Germany for another bit of pie?

Or am I getting things mixed up? (Spectacularly so most likely)

Perik Omo

1,918 posts

149 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
Germany is profiting at the expense of the S. European countries and it's getting worse by the day. The Target 2 balance for Germany stood at €796bn at the 31st January of which €364bn was owed by Italy alone. As of last night the balance for Germany stood at €829,751,005,084.63 (almost €834bn), an increase of €38bn in two months. I can't get the figures for Italy and the Club Med countries as the ECB have for some reason taken the balances page down.

Target 2 is the Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System that shows money owed by all the eurozone family national banks to each other.

As somebody above has stated Germany is doing extremely well out of the Euro, if it was still the DM the it's value would be far, far higher and Germany's exports would be very expensive.

anonymous-user

55 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
Fastdruid said:
They only have a surplus (which is over the limit set by the EU) because using the Euro means they are effectively artificially deflating their currency. So they get to sell high quality stuff at knock down prices.

The only losers are the Southern EU countries who get permanent austerity, massive unemployment and wages across the EZ dragged down to East European levels.

Germany needs to pay it's way, either the Eurozone needs to become a transfer union or end.

You're right and it's a commonly understood situation and the reason why other nations are concerned.

It's amazing that some can't or won't see what's as plain as day, though not too surprising from ajd.

Germany have very good strategies for their manufacturing but their current strength is down to them getting the European currency fixed to massively benefit them at the expense of others.

esxste

3,693 posts

107 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
It's all very well levelling the "Germany doesn't pay for it's defense" thing... but I'd point out that in the last 100 odd years, they've been antagonists in two world wars.

Certainly in the last 70 years in would have been very difficult to convince people it was a good thing for Germany to have a strong military.

Times are changing though...

herewego

8,814 posts

214 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
esxste said:
It's all very well levelling the "Germany doesn't pay for it's defense" thing... but I'd point out that in the last 100 odd years, they've been antagonists in two world wars.

Certainly in the last 70 years in would have been very difficult to convince people it was a good thing for Germany to have a strong military.

Times are changing though...
If I remember the UK spends something like 30bn a year more than Germany on defence. This doesn't seem at all sensible to me.

herewego

8,814 posts

214 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
Fastdruid said:
They only have a surplus (which is over the limit set by the EU) because using the Euro means they are effectively artificially deflating their currency. So they get to sell high quality stuff at knock down prices.

The only losers are the Southern EU countries who get permanent austerity, massive unemployment and wages across the EZ dragged down to East European levels.

Germany needs to pay it's way, either the Eurozone needs to become a transfer union or end.
They don't seem to be knockdown prices though. People don't buy German goods because they are cheap, They buy them because the German manufacturers have created an air of quality and people pay really high prices for that.
Also it seems odd to me that no one seems to want to question the level of purchase of German goods considering the UK/EU balance of payments. In fact people seem to like the negative balance of payments as giving them a strong hand in Brexit negotiations. I find it a bizarre point of view.

Edited by herewego on Friday 28th April 10:09

egomeister

6,705 posts

264 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
REALIST123 said:

You're right and it's a commonly understood situation and the reason why other nations are concerned.

It's amazing that some can't or won't see what's as plain as day, though not too surprising from ajd.

Germany have very good strategies for their manufacturing but their current strength is down to them getting the European currency fixed to massively benefit them at the expense of others.
Is it the other nations that should be concerned or Germany? With 800bn+ owing I'd say it should be the Germans that are worried...

Fastdruid

8,656 posts

153 months

Friday 28th April 2017
quotequote all
herewego said:
They don't seem to be knockdown prices though. People don't buy German goods because they are cheap, They buy them because the German manufacturers have created an air of quality and people pay really high prices for that.
They're cheaper than they should be for the quality compared to anything manufactured outside the EZ.

eg https://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/germanys-euro-...


Or "A recent chart from Morgan Stanley confirms that on a PPP basis, the EUR is over 40% undervalued for exporting and current surplus powerhouse Germany on a standalone basis"


Although I'm amazed that it's even "better" for Ireland. Although they're not an "manufacturing powerhouse" like Germany.