Suppose HS2 was cancelled
Discussion
100SRV said:
Not looking good for the project:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66352286
Will they carry on regardless or quietly cut their losses, sunk cost fallacy etc...?
I don’t know if that can be just brushed aside and ignored, perhaps easy while the Government is on holiday for the next few months, but it’s pretty scathing.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66352286
Will they carry on regardless or quietly cut their losses, sunk cost fallacy etc...?
Pulling the plug is ALWAYS an option.
Just because billions have been spent, it doesn't necessarily warrant spending the further billions to finish the job.
What's spent is spent, the question is, do we get value for money from carrying on?
The Nimrod programme was supposedly well past the point of no return.
If HS2 is being pushed back to the 2030's there must clearly be many more billions to be spent?
It's very hard to comprehend how it can possibly take so long in the 21st century.
The original West Coast line was built in a shorter time span by blokes with shovels.
Just because billions have been spent, it doesn't necessarily warrant spending the further billions to finish the job.
What's spent is spent, the question is, do we get value for money from carrying on?
The Nimrod programme was supposedly well past the point of no return.
If HS2 is being pushed back to the 2030's there must clearly be many more billions to be spent?
It's very hard to comprehend how it can possibly take so long in the 21st century.
The original West Coast line was built in a shorter time span by blokes with shovels.
Construction times re HS2 are laughable compared to the efforts expended by Victorian engineering pioneers. Health and safety standards add a layer of complexity but modern construction techniques and machinery should completely cancel that out.
I’m in the utility sector and our levels of utterly pointless paperwork coupled with endless “new” systems that will apparently transform productivity but in reality make no difference and do nothing more than tick a box just result in very poor levels of productivity.
To me HS2 is more of a net zero publicity campaign than an actual solution to the UK’s transport needs, stage 1 will open in circa 10 years but we probably won’t even notice, traffic and freight levels will be just as high and train travel will still be way overpriced as regards the journey time and customer experience.
It’s the wrong product arguably built in areas that are increasingly more difficult to access due to local authority/ Mayor of London policies. It won’t get cancelled but I do think the train specification will be scaled right back and we will use existing rolling stock on new HS2 track.
Interestingly the countries largest rail freight operator has scrapped its electric fleet and moved back to diesel / bio diesel. High speed electric trains are going to be very expensive to run in the new renewable age.
I’m in the utility sector and our levels of utterly pointless paperwork coupled with endless “new” systems that will apparently transform productivity but in reality make no difference and do nothing more than tick a box just result in very poor levels of productivity.
To me HS2 is more of a net zero publicity campaign than an actual solution to the UK’s transport needs, stage 1 will open in circa 10 years but we probably won’t even notice, traffic and freight levels will be just as high and train travel will still be way overpriced as regards the journey time and customer experience.
It’s the wrong product arguably built in areas that are increasingly more difficult to access due to local authority/ Mayor of London policies. It won’t get cancelled but I do think the train specification will be scaled right back and we will use existing rolling stock on new HS2 track.
Interestingly the countries largest rail freight operator has scrapped its electric fleet and moved back to diesel / bio diesel. High speed electric trains are going to be very expensive to run in the new renewable age.
Essarell said:
Construction times re HS2 are laughable compared to the efforts expended by Victorian engineering pioneers. Health and safety standards add a layer of complexity but modern construction techniques and machinery should completely cancel that out.
I’m in the utility sector and our levels of utterly pointless paperwork coupled with endless “new” systems that will apparently transform productivity but in reality make no difference and do nothing more than tick a box just result in very poor levels of productivity.
Yep. The report doesn't surprise me at all. As alluded to above, there comes a time when due to cost, complexity and bureaucracy a project will simply grind to a halt. The NHS only keeps going because it has to.I’m in the utility sector and our levels of utterly pointless paperwork coupled with endless “new” systems that will apparently transform productivity but in reality make no difference and do nothing more than tick a box just result in very poor levels of productivity.
Proceeding with HS2 was the first and biggest mistake Boris made.
HS2 is, has always been and always will be a total waste of money. From someone who lives nowhere near where this is running, I actually resent the sheer amount of money that's been wasted on this project.
From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
nordboy said:
HS2 is, has always been and always will be a total waste of money. From someone who lives nowhere near where this is running, I actually resent the sheer amount of money that's been wasted on this project.
From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
What is your alternative to increase rail capacity? From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
If we assume for a second that rail usage is at maximum capacity - which it basically is, especially in the SE and major routes into London - then you have 2 choices, build a new line or upgrade the existing ones. Upgrading the existing ones is very disruptive, and expensive, and takes a very long time. Building a new one is, surprisingly, less expensive and faster.
The argument we shouldn't do stuff because it's expensive is why the country is relying on railway infrastructure built 150 years ago, and is decommissioning nearly the entire fleet of nuclear power stations without any replacements. It's also why the sewage system dumps millions of gallons per day of untreated waste into the rivers and seas.
As a country we have to keep investing in major infrastructure, otherwise (as seen with the nuclear power plants and water system), it eventually gets to the point whereby the alternative is unacceptable.
Condi said:
nordboy said:
HS2 is, has always been and always will be a total waste of money. From someone who lives nowhere near where this is running, I actually resent the sheer amount of money that's been wasted on this project.
From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
What is your alternative to increase rail capacity?From the early days, anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that this would end up being run poorly, be massively overtime and over budget. What's happened, exactly that.
Why so many business people and politicians couldn’t see this is beyond me??
It will never make anywhere near any sort of profit once all the costs are included. Total farce, and unbelievable that they will keep throwing so much money at it.
Nuclear has the added hindrance of rabid protestors who hold projects up for decades. Water/sewerage is in the hands of privately owned companies who just cream as much out as they can.
Population density is going up while productivity and national wealth go down. Eventually something has to give.
Simpo Two said:
We come to terms with the fact it might be at maximum feasible capacity. You can't just keep on increasing things for ever.
Population density is going up while productivity and national wealth go down. Eventually something has to give.
The whole point of spending on infrastructure is to unlock GDP growth (or national wealth, as you put it). The idea being the government spends £100bn, but unlocks £2bn a year extra for 150 years, net result is £200bn of growth. Of course the original £100bn doesn't vanish either, it goes towards wages, materials, profits (redistributed to shareholders), etc. Population density is going up while productivity and national wealth go down. Eventually something has to give.
Just saying "we can't do it so shouldn't try" is very defeatist. HS2 is not for me, or you, but for your kid's kid's, and their kid's kid's.
Otherwise, as per above, you can save money and do things cheaply for a while until it all falls over, which is exactly what has happened to the energy and water sectors.
Condi said:
Simpo Two said:
We come to terms with the fact it might be at maximum feasible capacity. You can't just keep on increasing things for ever.
Population density is going up while productivity and national wealth go down. Eventually something has to give.
The whole point of spending on infrastructure is to unlock GDP growth (or national wealth, as you put it). The idea being the government spends £100bn, but unlocks £2bn a year extra for 150 years, net result is £200bn of growth. Of course the original £100bn doesn't vanish either, it goes towards wages, materials, profits (redistributed to shareholders), etc. Population density is going up while productivity and national wealth go down. Eventually something has to give.
Just saying "we can't do it so shouldn't try" is very defeatist. HS2 is not for me, or you, but for your kid's kid's, and their kid's kid's.
Otherwise, as per above, you can save money and do things cheaply for a while until it all falls over, which is exactly what has happened to the energy and water sectors.
Condi said:
The whole point of spending on infrastructure is to unlock GDP growth (or national wealth, as you put it). The idea being the government spends £100bn, but unlocks £2bn a year extra for 150 years, net result is £200bn of growth. Of course the original £100bn doesn't vanish either, it goes towards wages, materials, profits (redistributed to shareholders), etc.
Just saying "we can't do it so shouldn't try" is very defeatist. HS2 is not for me, or you, but for your kid's kid's, and their kid's kid's.
Otherwise, as per above, you can save money and do things cheaply for a while until it all falls over, which is exactly what has happened to the energy and water sectors.
Of course we can do it? There's nothing that special about HS2, they've been doing it in other countries for years. What I find hard to justify, is spending 100's of billions of pounds (the total cost will be FAR more than £100b) on something that is saving 20 or 30 mins on a journey, hardly awe inspiring?Just saying "we can't do it so shouldn't try" is very defeatist. HS2 is not for me, or you, but for your kid's kid's, and their kid's kid's.
Otherwise, as per above, you can save money and do things cheaply for a while until it all falls over, which is exactly what has happened to the energy and water sectors.
Spend the money on increasing the capacity of the trains or increasing the frequency if carrying more people is your priority? I'm yet to see any real argument that this will result in £200b in growth, it's all just pure estimates and guesswork.
nordboy said:
Of course we can do it? There's nothing that special about HS2, they've been doing it in other countries for years. What I find hard to justify, is spending 100's of billions of pounds (the total cost will be FAR more than £100b) on something that is saving 20 or 30 mins on a journey, hardly awe inspiring?
Spend the money on increasing the capacity of the trains or increasing the frequency if carrying more people is your priority? I'm yet to see any real argument that this will result in £200b in growth, it's all just pure estimates and guesswork.
The extra capacity objective of HS2 has been explained multiple times on thread, including to me.Spend the money on increasing the capacity of the trains or increasing the frequency if carrying more people is your priority? I'm yet to see any real argument that this will result in £200b in growth, it's all just pure estimates and guesswork.
nordboy said:
Of course we can do it? There's nothing that special about HS2, they've been doing it in other countries for years. What I find hard to justify, is spending 100's of billions of pounds (the total cost will be FAR more than £100b) on something that is saving 20 or 30 mins on a journey, hardly awe inspiring?
Spend the money on increasing the capacity of the trains or increasing the frequency if carrying more people is your priority? I'm yet to see any real argument that this will result in £200b in growth, it's all just pure estimates and guesswork.
That's what HS2 will do, both of those.Spend the money on increasing the capacity of the trains or increasing the frequency if carrying more people is your priority? I'm yet to see any real argument that this will result in £200b in growth, it's all just pure estimates and guesswork.
Condi said:
Otherwise, as per above, you can save money and do things cheaply for a while until it all falls over, which is exactly what has happened to the energy and water sectors.
I wouldn't say the lunge to renewables has been cheap. Money is limited so it has to be spent wisely. And yet everyone continues to demand more and more from Government. Consultants striking for more money is the pinnacle of the disease. We have to get used to the fact that there's no rule that says standards of living keep going up. It's been a good run, but it's spent.Simpo Two said:
I wouldn't say the lunge to renewables has been cheap. Money is limited so it has to be spent wisely. And yet everyone continues to demand more and more from Government. Consultants striking for more money is the pinnacle of the disease. We have to get used to the fact that there's no rule that says standards of living keep going up. It's been a good run, but it's spent.
I would argue for lower spending on pensions and healthcare which keeps people alive irrespective of quality of life, and more investment in things which benefit the wider country. After all, money is limited and keeping 85 year olds in care homes is hardly a good use of scarce resources is it? Appears to me that the baby-boomer generation have had it far too good and now expect the working population to continue to pay for their retirements instead of investing in the future of the country.
nordboy said:
Of course we can do it? There's nothing that special about HS2, they've been doing it in other countries for years. What I find hard to justify, is spending 100's of billions of pounds (the total cost will be FAR more than £100b) on something that is saving 20 or 30 mins on a journey, hardly awe inspiring?
Here we go again............
Have you bothered to read anything posted in this thread?
HS2 is not about saving 20 or 30mins on a journey time, its about taking the non-stop *intercity* trains off the current ECML to gain extra capacity on that for the commuter trains and freight trains.....as has been pointed out endlessly on this thread.
aeropilot said:
Here we go again............
Have you bothered to read anything posted in this thread?
HS2 is not about saving 20 or 30mins on a journey time, its about taking the non-stop *intercity* trains off the current ECML to gain extra capacity on that for the commuter trains and freight trains.....as has been pointed out endlessly on this thread.
Isn’t that the frustration that we all have toward HS2, the ECML connection has surely been canned when the “full y” was shelved. That leaves 140 miles or so from the Midlands to kind of near Euston….. it will add capacity to the WCML but that’s hardly a shining beacon of a franchise. Have you bothered to read anything posted in this thread?
HS2 is not about saving 20 or 30mins on a journey time, its about taking the non-stop *intercity* trains off the current ECML to gain extra capacity on that for the commuter trains and freight trains.....as has been pointed out endlessly on this thread.
This kind of money (£100 Bn plus) could have been spent far more prudently on desperately needed projects all over the UK which would have given us all the economic gains that we’re crying out for. Instead we will wait 30 years for what? Englands longest graffiti wall?
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