How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[AstonZagato]

princeperch said:

even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..

I'm 1hr 10min from my front door to desk (reliably - and an hour if I'm lucky / cut it fine) - so more like 2hr 20mins of my day.

The upside? I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own). I'm 8 miles (15 mins) from a university town that has art, theatre, music and shopping (which makes it more accessible than admittedly better facilities if I lived in London). There are a myriad of schools that are as good, if not better, than London (that don't have stupid waiting lists / entrance requirements).

If I sold and bought in Chelsea, I'd get a 1,500sqft 3 bed terrace (and a 30 min commute).

On the train, I read and catch up with stuff that I'd spend time at home doing. So I'm not sure I lose much time out of my life. Actually, it is nice to have a moment in my day when I can put my headphones on and read the paper without any distractions.

The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.

[anonymous-user]

AstonZagato said:

3 garages

how disappointing. I'd move further out.

[XJ40]

...I haven't mentioned it for a while but I still think this thread title is a misnomer even despite the current uncertain outlook. I just had a look when this vol 4 post was kicked off, 2012. My property has gone up 38.2% in those last 4 years, according to Zoopla... I did start a "How far with house prices rise vol 1" thread but it didn't take off, I guess the worry of declining prices makes for a more interesting heading...

[NomduJour]

AstonZagato said:

The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.

That's ultimately a big part of the premium - if you're inside Zone 2 you're no more than £20 in a black cab away from the best there is in terms of food/culture/whatever. I know people who've moved out ostensibly for the sake of the children - comes down to how you value that bit of lawn and driveway against an extra hour or so's commute (and whether your stay-at-home wife is going to go insane when the novelty of having a gardener has worn off).

If a commutable area is comparitively cheap there's a reason for it, because you aren't the only one weighing up the trade-offs.

[princeperch]

AstonZagato said:

princeperch said:

even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..

I'm 1hr 10min from my front door to desk (reliably - and an hour if I'm lucky / cut it fine) - so more like 2hr 20mins of my day.

The upside? I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own). I'm 8 miles (15 mins) from a university town that has art, theatre, music and shopping (which makes it more accessible than admittedly better facilities if I lived in London). There are a myriad of schools that are as good, if not better, than London (that don't have stupid waiting lists / entrance requirements).

If I sold and bought in Chelsea, I'd get a 1,500sqft 3 bed terrace (and a 30 min commute).

On the train, I read and catch up with stuff that I'd spend time at home doing. So I'm not sure I lose much time out of my life. Actually, it is nice to have a moment in my day when I can put my headphones on and read the paper without any distractions.

The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.

if you have plenty of wedge - say over £1.5/2M, then fair enough, you can live like a king out in the sticks.

the reality is for schmucks like me, if you just have say 500-600k to spend*, that doesn't get you very much out in the sticks at all these days. just a slightly bigger house, longer garden etc.

I honestly wouldn't be able to do a long commute for 30 odd years (which I consider to be over an hour each way) and I'd resent giving thousands of pounds away each year to the train co for the luxury of sitting in the cleaning cupboard on a packed train with everyone farting and smelling of BO.

• ETA - I don't want to sound like a dick but hope the point I was trying to make, albeit possibly unsuccessfully, is received as a valid one..

[anonymous-user]

princeperch said:

I honestly wouldn't be able to do a long commute for 30 odd years

Me neither, I did my 20's living and working in zone 1 and was so over it, just getting around is such a royal PITA, did my early 30's in NYC which just works so much better than London, quality of life is leagues ahead for the same kind of money. The idea of living out and commuting on public transport anywhere though fills me with dread.

[Digga]

fblm said:

princeperch said:

I honestly wouldn't be able to do a long commute for 30 odd years

Me neither, I did my 20's living and working in zone 1 and was so over it, just getting around is such a royal PITA, did my early 30's in NYC which just works so much better than London, quality of life is leagues ahead for the same kind of money. The idea of living out and commuting on public transport anywhere though fills me with dread.

Commutability and the mobility of labour, services and goods is really going to be one of the key battlegrounds for future GDP growth and productivity in the UK.

[battered]

AstonZagato said:

The upside? I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own). I'm 8 miles (15 mins) from a university town that has art, theatre, music and shopping (which makes it more accessible than admittedly better facilities if I lived in London). There are a myriad of schools that are as good, if not better, than London (that don't have stupid waiting lists / entrance requirements).

...

The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.

If you have enough money for a house like that an hour from London then I think that you can afford to get a room in town when you feel the need for a night out.

[AstonZagato]

But look at the number of £1mm+ properties in zone 1. I had the conversation with a chap the other day at the cricket. He lives in Chelsea and his flat is worth £3mio apparently. He wants a house as he has kids. He is looking at Tooting, as that is where £3mio buys enough house for him (I haven't fact checked any of this - just a conversation). £3mio and you're living in Tooting. It isn't really the beating heart of the metropolis. I don't get it. But I don't really care. Different strokes for different folks.

I suppose it came down to the fact that, when I lived in London, I used to spend my weekends leaving the place. Going down to the Cotswolds or up to Yorkshire. Getting some space. I'm probably not a London person, though I enjoy the restaurants and chi-chi shops when I'm here.

[Thankyou4calling]

XJ40 said:

...I haven't mentioned it for a while but I still think this thread title is a misnomer even despite the current uncertain outlook. I just had a look when this vol 4 post was kicked off, 2012. My property has gone up 38.2% in those last 4 years, according to Zoopla... I did start a "How far with house prices rise vol 1" thread but it didn't take off, I guess the worry of declining prices makes for a more interesting heading...

I don't know your personal circumstances but there are a hell of a lot of places in the UK where prices are still not yet back to 2008 levels so that is quite a fall in real terms.

[XJ40]

Thankyou4calling said:

XJ40 said:

...I haven't mentioned it for a while but I still think this thread title is a misnomer even despite the current uncertain outlook. I just had a look when this vol 4 post was kicked off, 2012. My property has gone up 38.2% in those last 4 years, according to Zoopla... I did start a "How far with house prices rise vol 1" thread but it didn't take off, I guess the worry of declining prices makes for a more interesting heading...

I don't know your personal circumstances but there are a hell of a lot of places in the UK where prices are still not yet back to 2008 levels so that is quite a fall in real terms.

Fair point. I admittedly tend to look at either the UK average price figures or those for my local area, so I can forget that the picture can be quite different in other parts..

[Burwood]

XJ40 said:

Thankyou4calling said:

XJ40 said:

...I haven't mentioned it for a while but I still think this thread title is a misnomer even despite the current uncertain outlook. I just had a look when this vol 4 post was kicked off, 2012. My property has gone up 38.2% in those last 4 years, according to Zoopla... I did start a "How far with house prices rise vol 1" thread but it didn't take off, I guess the worry of declining prices makes for a more interesting heading...

I don't know your personal circumstances but there are a hell of a lot of places in the UK where prices are still not yet back to 2008 levels so that is quite a fall in real terms.

Fair point. I admittedly tend to look at either the UK average price figures or those for my local area, so I can forget that the picture can be quite different in other parts..

But but, it's almost always a London thread with the exception of a few other posters reminding Londoners how bonkers they are

I am similar to AstonZ, traded by 1600 sq ft 3 bed on the River Thames for a nice Surrey pad.

[XJ40]

Burwood said:

But but, it's almost always a London thread with the exception of a few other posters reminding Londoners how bonkers they are

I am similar to AstonZ, traded by 1600 sq ft 3 bed on the River Thames for a nice Surrey pad.

Yes true, seems London/Home counties/south-east centric for sure.

[Pork]

Here's a London-centric article. Interesting etc but most people don't live in London. Brexit could cut London house prices by more than 30%, says bank

[Pork]

Interesting conversation re London. I lived there in my 20's and 30s but, like the chap above, towards the end I spent every weekend getting out. It's a great city but for me, it's a city for the loaded or young. I'm neither, sadly,

[All that jazz]

AstonZagato said:

I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own).

[mikees]

AstonZagato said:

princeperch said:

even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..

I'm 1hr 10min from my front door to desk (reliably - and an hour if I'm lucky / cut it fine) - so more like 2hr 20mins of my day.

The upside? I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own). I'm 8 miles (15 mins) from a university town that has art, theatre, music and shopping (which makes it more accessible than admittedly better facilities if I lived in London). There are a myriad of schools that are as good, if not better, than London (that don't have stupid waiting lists / entrance requirements).

If I sold and bought in Chelsea, I'd get a 1,500sqft 3 bed terrace (and a 30 min commute).

On the train, I read and catch up with stuff that I'd spend time at home doing. So I'm not sure I lose much time out of my life. Actually, it is nice to have a moment in my day when I can put my headphones on and read the paper without any distractions.

The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.

Where do you live Aston? North east or west? I'm in Princes Risborough and 40 mins on train and 20 mins into city. With regard to 500-600 grand, you can get a decentish house out here for that

Mike

[Hitch]

First round of post-brexit stats should be interesting over the next few weeks if this is anything to go buy:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e918d8c-4c15-11e6-88c5-...

[Pork]

Hitch said:

First round of post-brexit stats should be interesting over the next few weeks if this is anything to go buy:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e918d8c-4c15-11e6-88c5-...

That link requires a subscription.

[AstonZagato]

All that jazz said:

AstonZagato said:

I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own).

Not really. That house is equivalent in monetary value to a three bed terraced house in Chelsea under the Heathrow flight path, so doesn't exactly confer billionaire bragging rights. Hundreds seem to want to chose that London lifestyle over mine - so I'm in the minority.