How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Digga]

TTwiggy said:

Very much this. There are a number of people who vote Tory with a metaphorical pinched nose, purely because they work, pay tax, have a mortgage and want to sustain a certain standard of living. They vote blue to safeguard these things as, whatever else they may do, historically the Tories protect the economy and the working middle class. If they drop that particular ball they are toast.

Just about everyone is 'middle class' now. Go to the scruffiest estate in you area and, unless that happens to be somewhere significantly underprivileged - like Merthyr Tydfil, or Middlesborough - there will still be brand new cars (bought on tic) parked on driveways, communal parking spaces and on the street, as well as flat screen TVs, iPads and iPhones indoors. People are greedy, they know the politics of envy may easily mean less for them.

Funnily enough, the people closest to those who openly sponge of the state (as distinct from those who rightly received support from it) are often the most pragmatic in this regard.

Corbyn is popular with Corbyn fans. Yes, occasionally, he says something vaguely sensible and useful, and yes, sometimes there is a semblance of opposition to the government, but mostly he - and therefore Labour - are utterly un-electable.

[p1stonhead]

TTwiggy said:

Jockman said:

TTwiggy said:

Very much this. There are a number of people who vote Tory with a metaphorical pinched nose, purely because they work, pay tax, have a mortgage and want to sustain a certain standard of living. They vote blue to safeguard these things as, whatever else they may do, historically the Tories protect the economy and the working middle class. If they drop that particular ball they are toast.

I assume you weren't around in 1997?

I was 25 in 1997. I didn't vote for Blair's Labour but I can understand why people did. He repositioned the party in a way that would appeal to the more 'socially caring' Tory voters while suggesting he wouldn't screw the economy. Also, the alternative was pretty dire.

Obviously Corbyn's party is nothing like Blair's, but if the Tories screw the economy, what else can they offer the less-than-true-Blue?

I agree. If they lose their core older voters due to screwing things up, it will be dire for them. Look at the election age split. The youngsters will certainly not go blue, but the older ones could go the other way. Its nearly an exact mirror image which could turn quickly depending on the current government's performance.

[Dr Jekyll]

Digga said:

Just about everyone is 'middle class' now. Go to the scruffiest estate in you area and, unless that happens to be somewhere significantly underprivileged - like Merthyr Tydfil, or Middlesborough - there will still be brand new cars (bought on tic) parked on driveways, communal parking spaces and on the street, as well as flat screen TVs, iPads and iPhones indoors. People are greedy, they know the politics of envy may easily mean less for them.

Wanting to be able to have a new car and igadgets isn't greedy, it's perfectly reasonable.

[Funkycoldribena]

ORD said:

Anyone who fails to see how hard Brexit leads inevitably to a Corbyn government has not thought about it very deeply.

It goes like this:

(1) Hard Brexit causes a recession.

(2) Labour blames the Tories for hard Brexit.

(3) The Tories say "Dont vote for Labour - they'll mess up the economy!"

(4) Labour says "The economy is already messed up, thanks to you" and "It is time to try a different approach".

A Tory government that takes us into a recession will not survive.

If the recession is like the one Osbourne predicted after voting leave,I don't think I'll worry too much.

[///ajd]

Not-The-Messiah said:

The best way I see to prevent Corbyn getting into power is to try and make a success of Brexit.

A successful brexit would make a Corbyn government unlikely.

That is why a Corbyn government, sadly, seems a real risk. Brexit change will be bad, lets have some different change. “It can’t be any worse” some will say - ironically just as some plumped for brexit along similar “any change is good” thinking.

Reversexit might play well for the tories given the way this is panning out.

[London424]

He'll be 72/73 next time up...can't see it personally.

[Robertj21a]

ORD said:

Anyone who fails to see how hard Brexit leads inevitably to a Corbyn government has not thought about it very deeply.

It goes like this:

(1) Hard Brexit causes a recession.

(2) Labour blames the Tories for hard Brexit.

(3) The Tories say "Dont vote for Labour - they'll mess up the economy!"

(4) Labour says "The economy is already messed up, thanks to you" and "It is time to try a different approach".

A Tory government that takes us into a recession will not survive.

Alternatively....

1. Brexit goes surprisingly smoothly, despite 11th hour jitters

2. Experts accept that they totally misread all the charts etc

3. Economy picks up quicker than anyone expected due to very positive outlook

4. Tories voted back in with a massive landslide. Corbyn ........who ?

Edited by Robertj21a on Wednesday 22 November 16:17

[Jockman]

p1stonhead said:

TTwiggy said:

Jockman said:

TTwiggy said:

Very much this. There are a number of people who vote Tory with a metaphorical pinched nose, purely because they work, pay tax, have a mortgage and want to sustain a certain standard of living. They vote blue to safeguard these things as, whatever else they may do, historically the Tories protect the economy and the working middle class. If they drop that particular ball they are toast.

I assume you weren't around in 1997?

I was 25 in 1997. I didn't vote for Blair's Labour but I can understand why people did. He repositioned the party in a way that would appeal to the more 'socially caring' Tory voters while suggesting he wouldn't screw the economy. Also, the alternative was pretty dire.

Obviously Corbyn's party is nothing like Blair's, but if the Tories screw the economy, what else can they offer the less-than-true-Blue?

I agree. If they lose their core older voters due to screwing things up, it will be dire for them. Look at the election age split. The youngsters will certainly not go blue, but the older ones could go the other way. Its nearly an exact mirror image which could turn quickly depending on the current government's performance.

How does that graph compare to other graphs on voting by age during, say, the 2015 GE?

Don't get me wrong - it's not in >any< party's interest to tank an economy. No doubt.

The 2017 Tory Manifesto was one of the most punishing on Elderly Voters. Yet 69% still voted for them.

Confidence is a key intangible measure. The Tories lost it in 1997, despite the economic situation. Blair reinvented Labour and the rest is history.

[ORD]

Robertj21a said:

Alternatively....

1. Brexit goes surprising smoothly, despite 11th hour jitters

2. Experts accept that they totally misread all the charts etc

3. Economy picks up quicker than anyone expected due to very positive outlook

4. Tories voted back in with a massive landslide. Corbyn ........who ?

I agree. A successful Brexit would be great for the Tories. It presently looks very unlikely.

[p1stonhead]

Jockman said:

p1stonhead said:

TTwiggy said:

Jockman said:

TTwiggy said:

Very much this. There are a number of people who vote Tory with a metaphorical pinched nose, purely because they work, pay tax, have a mortgage and want to sustain a certain standard of living. They vote blue to safeguard these things as, whatever else they may do, historically the Tories protect the economy and the working middle class. If they drop that particular ball they are toast.

I assume you weren't around in 1997?

I was 25 in 1997. I didn't vote for Blair's Labour but I can understand why people did. He repositioned the party in a way that would appeal to the more 'socially caring' Tory voters while suggesting he wouldn't screw the economy. Also, the alternative was pretty dire.

Obviously Corbyn's party is nothing like Blair's, but if the Tories screw the economy, what else can they offer the less-than-true-Blue?

I agree. If they lose their core older voters due to screwing things up, it will be dire for them. Look at the election age split. The youngsters will certainly not go blue, but the older ones could go the other way. Its nearly an exact mirror image which could turn quickly depending on the current government's performance.

How does that graph compare to other graphs on voting by age during, say, the 2015 GE?

Don't get me wrong - it's not in >any< party's interest to tank an economy. No doubt.

The 2017 Tory Manifesto was one of the most punishing on Elderly Voters. Yet 69% still voted for them.

Confidence is a key intangible measure. The Tories lost it in 1997, despite the economic situation. Blair reinvented Labour and the rest is history.

Found this comparable for 2015. A lot less extreme it would seem.

[anonymous-user]

ORD said:

I agree. A successful Brexit would be great for the Tories. It presently looks very unlikely.

I'd add 'within the time before the next election'.

Not sure they have enough time for the positives to gain traction.

[JagLover]

ORD said:

Anyone who fails to see how hard Brexit leads inevitably to a Corbyn government has not thought about it very deeply.

It goes like this:

(1) Hard Brexit causes a recession.

(2) Labour blames the Tories for hard Brexit.

(3) The Tories say "Dont vote for Labour - they'll mess up the economy!"

(4) Labour says "The economy is already messed up, thanks to you" and "It is time to try a different approach".

A Tory government that takes us into a recession will not survive.

Maybe so

The alternative is

(1) Leave in name only or reverse the referendum result
(2) massive outrage no doubt including describing leading Tory politicians as enemies of the people
(3) Fight an election campaign with most natural Tory voters spitting every time they hear the Party's name
(4) Struggle to achieve 30% of the national vote

[ORD]

JagLover said:

ORD said:

Anyone who fails to see how hard Brexit leads inevitably to a Corbyn government has not thought about it very deeply.

It goes like this:

(1) Hard Brexit causes a recession.

(2) Labour blames the Tories for hard Brexit.

(3) The Tories say "Dont vote for Labour - they'll mess up the economy!"

(4) Labour says "The economy is already messed up, thanks to you" and "It is time to try a different approach".

A Tory government that takes us into a recession will not survive.

Maybe so

The alternative is

(1) Leave in name only or reverse the referendum result
(2) massive outrage no doubt including describing leading Tory politicians as enemies of the people
(3) Fight an election campaign with most natural Tory voters spitting every time they hear the Party's name
(4) Struggle to achieve 30% of the national vote

Yep. This is why I said, immediately after the referendum "The Tories are toast, come what may".

[///ajd]

Funny to see one boring brexiteer so triggered, everday he comes on to complain about a remainer.

Whats the point indeed?

Lashing out as brexit unravels, as predicted.

£3.7Billion robbed from the NHS so far and we haven’t even left.

Impressive stuff brexiteers! Well done!

[Funkycoldribena]

///ajd said:

Funny to see one boring brexiteer so triggered, everday he comes on to complain about a remainer.

Whats the point indeed?

Lashing out as brexit unravels, as predicted.

£3.7Billion robbed from the NHS so far and we haven’t even left.

Impressive stuff brexiteers! Well done!

Who's that then?

[PurpleMoonlight]

///ajd said:

£3.7Billion robbed from the NHS so far and we haven’t even left.

Impressive stuff brexiteers! Well done!

Is that just admin costs or does it include capital purchases eg land?

[Robertj21a]

///ajd said:

Funny to see one boring brexiteer so triggered, everday he comes on to complain about a remainer.

Whats the point indeed?

Lashing out as brexit unravels, as predicted.

£3.7Billion robbed from the NHS so far and we haven’t even left.

Impressive stuff brexiteers! Well done!

What on earth are you going on about now ?

[barryrs]

Robertj21a said:

What on earth are you going on about now ?

Brexit tourettes.

Tourette's syndrome is a neurological condition (affecting the brain and nervous system), characterised by a combination of involuntary posts and movements called Brex tics

[Digga]

Robertj21a said:

///ajd said:

Funny to see one boring brexiteer so triggered, everday he comes on to complain about a remainer.

Whats the point indeed?

Lashing out as brexit unravels, as predicted.

£3.7Billion robbed from the NHS so far and we haven’t even left.

Impressive stuff brexiteers! Well done!

What on earth are you going on about now ?

It's just randomly generated sentences, with a few snippets from today's list of "poorly explained propaganda half-facts to be disseminated" (£3.7Billion) thrown in for effect.

[Funkycoldribena]

I do wonder,to be that obsessed with some organisation, if something is wrong?