How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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Murph7355

37,684 posts

256 months

Monday 7th August 2017
quotequote all
Zod said:
Do you know anything about how state and quasi-state pensions are funded?
I think you may need a parrot...

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 7th August 2017
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Zod said:
Do you know anything about how state and quasi-state pensions are funded?
I think you may need a parrot...
biggrin

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
UK proposes cake.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922177

It's worth a go, and credit to the UK brexit team for coming up with a proposal. I can't see the EU going for it though as they will likely see it as effectively cherry picking one of the four freedoms.

I think I saw Farage on TV criticising it.




Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

86 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
UK proposes cake.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922177

It's worth a go, and credit to the UK brexit team for coming up with a proposal. I can't see the EU going for it though as they will likely see it as effectively cherry picking one of the four freedoms.

I think I saw Farage on TV criticising it.
One has to marvel at the ineptitude of a pair of cabinet ministers attempting a display of unity on Sunday by insisting we're leaving the customs union only for the Dexeu to propose leaving the customs union on Tuesday but replacing it with and I quote: "a new and time-limited customs union between the UK and EU Customs Union, based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties between the UK and the EU". In other words: a customs union.

Hear that noise? That's the sound of no building work going on in Dover.

confused_buyer

6,613 posts

181 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
One has to marvel at the ineptitude of a pair of cabinet ministers attempting a display of unity on Sunday by insisting we're leaving the customs union only for the Dexeu to propose leaving the customs union on Tuesday but replacing it with and I quote: "a new and time-limited customs union between the UK and EU Customs Union, based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties between the UK and the EU". In other words: a customs union.
Umm. No. They are saying the same thing as at the weekend. A transitional customs union for about 2 years after we leave the EU in 2019 before moving to a customs border in 2021. In other words: "a new and time-limited" with the time-limited part being the key phrase.

Murph7355

37,684 posts

256 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
One has to marvel at the ineptitude of a pair of cabinet ministers attempting a display of unity on Sunday by insisting we're leaving the customs union only for the Dexeu to propose leaving the customs union on Tuesday but replacing it with and I quote: "a new and time-limited customs union between the UK and EU Customs Union, based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties between the UK and the EU". In other words: a customs union.

Hear that noise? That's the sound of no building work going on in Dover.
Tomato tomato.

The detail notes that we want to be able to negotiate our own trade deals in the new "customs union" whereas in the old "customs union" we cannot.

This appears to be both an acknowledgement that a transitional arrangement would benefit both parties, as would a future longer standing arrangement that reduces friction.

Why are you bleating about that? I'd have thought it would be what you'd like to see? But instead you try and paint some picture of contradiction that simply does not exist.

Now the EU will say no way as it's cherry picking, we'll say OK tell us what you will suffer and so the negotiation starts.

My guess... Transitional arrangement for 3yrs. We can negotiate a deal but not conclude until the transition is complete.

Beyond that, as near frictionless as possible would be great, but we gear ourselves to treat the EU as everywhere else has been for the last 40yrs.

The EU's response will be interesting. I expect the initial one will involve much shrugging of shoulders, zut aloring and some choice statements from prize gobste Juncker between lunches.

SantaBarbara

3,244 posts

108 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Negotiations are actually proceeding very well.

I expect most people will be very pleased by the time negotiations are concluded

ORD

18,107 posts

127 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Brexit remains the lamentable cringe-fest that it has always been.

It is all a phoney war until the next round of economic figures put the fear of God into everyone.

don'tbesilly

13,930 posts

163 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
One has to marvel at the ineptitude of a pair of cabinet ministers attempting a display of unity on Sunday by insisting we're leaving the customs union only for the Dexeu to propose leaving the customs union on Tuesday but replacing it with and I quote: "a new and time-limited customs union between the UK and EU Customs Union, based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties between the UK and the EU". In other words: a customs union.

Hear that noise? That's the sound of no building work going on in Dover.
The EU's response will be interesting. I expect the initial one will involve much shrugging of shoulders, zut aloring and some choice statements from prize gobste Juncker between lunches.
The response has already been received, although I'd argue that the No1 gob-ste bully boy is that odious creep Verhofstadt who not surprisingly has referred to DD's proposal as fantasy.

Hardly a surprise was it!

Funkycoldribena

7,379 posts

154 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
The response has already been received, although I'd argue that the No1 gob-ste bully boy is that odious creep Verhofstadt who not surprisingly has referred to DD's proposal as fantasy.

Hardly a surprise was it!
I can't even look at the floppy haired idiot.
Reason enough to have voted leave.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

86 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Tomato tomato.

The detail notes that we want to be able to negotiate our own trade deals in the new "customs union" whereas in the old "customs union" we cannot.

This appears to be both an acknowledgement that a transitional arrangement would benefit both parties, as would a future longer standing arrangement that reduces friction.

Why are you bleating about that? I'd have thought it would be what you'd like to see? But instead you try and paint some picture of contradiction that simply does not exist.

Now the EU will say no way as it's cherry picking, we'll say OK tell us what you will suffer and so the negotiation starts.

My guess... Transitional arrangement for 3yrs. We can negotiate a deal but not conclude until the transition is complete.

Beyond that, as near frictionless as possible would be great, but we gear ourselves to treat the EU as everywhere else has been for the last 40yrs.

The EU's response will be interesting. I expect the initial one will involve much shrugging of shoulders, zut aloring and some choice statements from prize gobste Juncker between lunches.
Apples oranges. And I'm not bleating, I'm pouring scorn on a government that can't speak with one voice after a year of trying to on Brexit.

Nice try grabbing on to the trade deal scenario & I can see why you ran for your safe space. Fox must be fuming the nasty old EU won't let him do trade deals while these negotiations are going on. Imagine being held to the rules you signed up to that were an entirely foreseeable outcome even though you publicly stated repeatedly you'd break them all the way up until the day you went to see M. Barnier, then quietly backed down.

So, that would be the answer then, a parallel Alice in Wonderland customs union, the government admits it can't implement new trade deals but is simultaneously unsure whether it can actually sign them, so is it just talking to partners about trade deals? As that is what David Davis said this morning on R4.

And why would the EU agree to this? They already have a customs union that functions perfectly well. There is nothing for it to gain by granting a new, parallel union & what of the legal framework surrounding it? We'll be out of the EU & so out of the ECJ's jurisdiction. Would The Gov promise to mirror EU law during the transition? What about after?

What happens after in terms of the future relationship? Will we need new buildings for customs, new staff to deal with what exactly? A streamlined relationship, a customs partnership? Where is the infrastructure proposals? I've seen nothing from DexEu to suggest any of this is planned let alone proposed.
I've not even got onto technology, of which we've never seen a successful implementation on such a scale. The whole thing is a dogs dinner & it's high time the Brexiteers admitted it.

don'tbesilly

13,930 posts

163 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
ORD said:
Brexit remains the lamentable cringe-fest that it has always been.

It is all a phoney war until the next round of economic figures put the fear of God into everyone.
Yes the last round did just that didn't they, went largely without much comment which was surprising, fear of God never really materialised.

It's gone remarkably quiet in regards all the Banks fleeing the UK, it must be due a rerun fairly soon surely, it normally runs along similar timelines of a menstrual cycle.

Murph7355

37,684 posts

256 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
The response has already been received, although I'd argue that the No1 gob-ste bully boy is that odious creep Verhofstadt who not surprisingly has referred to DD's proposal as fantasy.

Hardly a surprise was it!
Ah, just seen it.

We have to settle the money and citizens' rights first.

Quelle surprise.

What progress the EU vv their own fantasy of being able to have dominion over its citizens living outside the EU? smile

ORD

18,107 posts

127 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
Apples oranges. And I'm not bleating, I'm pouring scorn on a government that can't speak with one voice after a year of trying to on Brexit.

Nice try grabbing on to the trade deal scenario & I can see why you ran for your safe space. Fox must be fuming the nasty old EU won't let him do trade deals while these negotiations are going on. Imagine being held to the rules you signed up to that were an entirely foreseeable outcome even though you publicly stated repeatedly you'd break them all the way up until the day you went to see M. Barnier, then quietly backed down.

So, that would be the answer then, a parallel Alice in Wonderland customs union, the government admits it can't implement new trade deals but is simultaneously unsure whether it can actually sign them, so is it just talking to partners about trade deals? As that is what David Davis said this morning on R4.

And why would the EU agree to this? They already have a customs union that functions perfectly well. There is nothing for it to gain by granting a new, parallel union & what of the legal framework surrounding it? We'll be out of the EU & so out of the ECJ's jurisdiction. Would The Gov promise to mirror EU law during the transition? What about after?

What happens after in terms of the future relationship? Will we need new buildings for customs, new staff to deal with what exactly? A streamlined relationship, a customs partnership? Where is the infrastructure proposals? I've seen nothing from DexEu to suggest any of this is planned let alone proposed.
I've not even got onto technology, of which we've never seen a successful implementation on such a scale. The whole thing is a dogs dinner & it's high time the Brexiteers admitted it.
Details details. British bulldog spirit is all you need!

confused_buyer

6,613 posts

181 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
So, that would be the answer then, a parallel Alice in Wonderland customs union, the government admits it can't implement new trade deals but is simultaneously unsure whether it can actually sign them, so is it just talking to partners about trade deals? As that is what David Davis said this morning on R4.
We won't be able to implement any trade deals until we leave the customs union. This has never been in doubt or dispute. Whether they can be signed during a proposed transitional would depend on any agreement with the EU. It is subject to negotiation so the Government is quite correct in what they are saying.

We certainly can't enter into negotiations or sign trade deals whilst a member of the EU which we are at the moment.

I presume you are not in favour of a "cliff edge" exit in March 2019? Or are you? If the former then I would assume you would support the Government proposing a transitional period. Or are you just deliberately obtuse to every suggestion?

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

86 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
We won't be able to implement any trade deals until we leave the customs union. This has never been in doubt or dispute. Whether they can be signed during a proposed transitional would depend on any agreement with the EU. It is subject to negotiation so the Government is quite correct in what they are saying.
The well worn phrase, sufficient progress springs to mind. I'll tell you why they're saying this today, though - the gov needs to release the Irish border paper tomorrow, that's what's driving this nonsense. I'll give you that, it's one of the few things the EU is wrong on & the UK right, trade should be parallel in the talks. But it isn't. Why isn't it? Because sufficient progress. Why not sufficient progress? Because strong & stable leadership, that's why.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
I presume you are not in favour of a "cliff edge" exit in March 2019? Or are you? If the former then I would assume you would support the Government proposing a transitional period. Or are you just deliberately obtuse to every suggestion?
The UK is just proposing to delay the cliff edge a few years, is it not?

Would it be less of an impact with more time to plan or is it just better to get it over with asap?

dandarez

13,276 posts

283 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Funkycoldribena said:
don'tbesilly said:
The response has already been received, although I'd argue that the No1 gob-ste bully boy is that odious creep Verhofstadt who not surprisingly has referred to DD's proposal as fantasy.

Hardly a surprise was it!
I can't even look at the floppy haired idiot.
Reason enough to have voted leave.
I'm sure if he had a thick moustache he'd remind me of someone else with floppy hair...

what was his name, Adolf something?

Almost appropriate.

confused_buyer

6,613 posts

181 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
The well worn phrase, sufficient progress springs to mind. I'll tell you why they're saying this today, though - the gov needs to release the Irish border paper tomorrow, that's what's driving this nonsense. I'll give you that, it's one of the few things the EU is wrong on & the UK right, trade should be parallel in the talks. But it isn't. Why isn't it? Because sufficient progress. Why not sufficient progress? Because strong & stable leadership, that's why.
And in English?

confused_buyer

6,613 posts

181 months

Tuesday 15th August 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
The UK is just proposing to delay the cliff edge a few years, is it not?

Would it be less of an impact with more time to plan or is it just better to get it over with asap?
It depends really on whether they can get a new customs checking regime agreed and implemented by March 2019. Most people think that is a bit tight.
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