How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[pim]

There will be a deal.Maybe not the way the U.K wants but what is the alternative?.Trade deals can be sorted out finance always finds a way to keep the status quo.

It is freedom of movement by E.U and U.K citizens what will and is causing problems.Work permits visa's it is becoming to complicated for a Island of the coast of Europe.Maybe another election soon because I can see this house of cards collapsing before our eyes.

[mjb1]

mjb1 said:

So I think the best thing that could happen is that the UK vs EU spend the next two years not agreeing on a single thing, and we go out with no deal.

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

No, I'm younger than you. 30 years away from retirement. Why do you ask?

[Mrr T]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Yes you should.

You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.

All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.

The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.

This post shows why The ECHR is so important.

It shows how fair minded most people in the UK are, it also shows we have a system of law that is enforced. It's why the UK has major corporations headquartered here.

You try and paint the UK as some tin pot state that doesn't have a long established history of looking after it's citizens. Well before the EU we were doing just that. We will continue to do that post EU.

I think you are struggling with the complex ideas of government and the individual.

You keep referring to the state as if it was some living being which can decide things arbitrarily. It’s not the state does not have a physical body. The people elect a government which can then make laws. The power of the state in the UK is great with limited checks. One of the major check on the power of the government is the ECHR.

One of the rights of all individuals in the UK, whether they hold UK passports or not, it the right to not have rights taken away from them arbitrarily. It’s a qualified right so you take rights away but it must be reasonable.

Let’s say Corbyn had won the election and said he was going to rerun the referendum but only allow those between 16 and 50, those most affected, to vote. Would you have accepted that because it was the will of the government? I expect not.

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

The reason is that a couple of years ago the UK changed the rules on getting permanent residency. They also in a very dubious legal move back dated the change. For that reason my wife cannot now cannot get permanent residency before 2022: even though she has lived in the UK for over 10 years.

Given the unrelented negative nature of your posts, I'm sure that this has been asked before. Why don't you go somewhere else? I've got friends who've emigrated (and naturalised) in Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong, Austria, Spain and America amongst others. They've all been delighted with their new homes and in each case have found places that suit them more than 'tin pot' Britain. You clearly aren't happy and seem much more of a mindset that would suit a new start abroad. You've got the whole world to choose from, why stay somewhere that's making you miserable?

Considering your wholly negative views on the UK being part of the EU why are you still here? You could have left years ago for a country which is not a part of the EU.

[Murph7355]

Cobnapint said:

This.

Whenever an EU representative stands in Brussels and says they don't want to punish the UK for Brexit, you know they are lying through their teeth.

Any deal that that has the slightest hint of NOT being disadvantageous to the UK will be seen as a green light for others to consider leaving. And for Germany in particular, that is a no-no.

I've said before, keeping the EU together is a far bigger priority for Germany and France than selling a few BMWs, Audi's, Mercs and Renaults. It is they that will be the sacrificial lambs in these negotiations. Prepare for WTO tariffs folks.

Others have referred to this, but this is a very risky strategy. It's not dissimilar to Cameron calling the referendum or May calling the election. But with knobs on.

They can only control a small part of our ability to generate wealth/income. A diminishing portion too.

If they are seen to punish the UK, one of three outcomes happens

- the UK does badly. This is what they might want, but.... We're a hefty trade partner of theirs and this would hurt them too. But they at least get their victory

- the UK does the same and/or any benefit/deficit cannot be proven. Not good for them. They try their hardest to penalise. It doesn't work. Other countries disincentivised?

- the UK does well/takes off. Worst possible outcome. Far from working, punishment benefits us.

Only one of those outcomes is as they would want and even then far from ideal/desirable. And the likelihood is that won't come to pass anyway. It's a foolhardy approach IMO (as was Cameron's, as was May's. They were all downside against what they wanted to achieve).

The only way the EU can salvage this now IMO is to paint truly positive messages about membership, make it clear that the UK is different as it's not in the Euro and has always been a thorn anyway, be seen to give a sensible deal and then take some credit if the more positive outcomes ensue.

They can't do this though. Their political motivations and ego get in the way. And they desperately need our cash to keep the thing chugging along.

The EU is a gradeA st show. And will be another great example, if the world needed one, of how to take something too far.

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

Considering your wholly negative views on the UK being part of the EU why are you still here? You could have left years ago for a country which is not a part of the EU.

You seem to think I'm a Brexiteer? Not the case. I've no beef with the EU, and am quite happy with membership. On the other hand, if we're going to do Brexit, we can't afford to stick our heads in the sand and end up with some half hearted compromise. In or out, I'm totally in favour of strong trade and business links with Europe as well as friendship and support to our neighbours. And, in or out I believe we'll manage to achieve that, so long as we don't curl up in a ball and moan pitilessly.

So I'll ask again.. in *your* case, why stay?

[Atomic12C]

I keep hearing people want a "soft brexit"... please can somebody define what this is?
Not after a concise point by point definition - but just some rough pointers would be good - because surely in a negotiation each side is expected to negotiate to a compromise position.
So the value of stating a soft or hard brexit holds little weight. No?

Edited by Atomic12C on Tuesday 27th June 15:25

[Sheets Tabuer]

Atomic12C said:

I keep hearing people want a "soft brexit"... please can somebody define what this is?

It's not leaving.

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

Considering your wholly negative views on the UK being part of the EU why are you still here? You could have left years ago for a country which is not a part of the EU.

You seem to think I'm a Brexiteer? Not the case. I've no beef with the EU, and am quite happy with membership. On the other hand, if we're going to do Brexit, we can't afford to stick our heads in the sand and end up with some half hearted compromise. In or out, I'm totally in favour of strong trade and business links with Europe as well as friendship and support to our neighbours. And, in or out I believe we'll manage to achieve that, so long as we don't curl up in a ball and moan pitilessly.

So I'll ask again.. in *your* case, why stay?

Really your responses are so team leave. I am not leaving at the moment for the same reasons I did not leave when GB was PM. Is your idea that everyone who disagrees fundamentally with the government’s actions should leave the country?

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

Really your responses are so team leave. I am not leaving at the moment for the same reasons I did not leave when GB was PM. Is your idea that everyone who disagrees fundamentally with the government’s actions should leave the country?

You really are misunderstanding. It's a genuine question, not meant to offend or suggest anything. I'm just asking - from your posts on here you appear not to like anything about the UK, and like the future even less. Your wife is not a British citizen, made all the more complicated by the changes in the residency rules. From an outsider's point of view, I really can't see what's keeping you here? As I said, I know plenty of people who've left and I'm very happy for them - they found the part of the world that suited their particular lifestyles and beliefs. That seems a wholly positive thing to me.

My in-laws lived full time outside the UK and Europe, and at one point some years ago I did spend some time weighing up the options of all the places my partner and I could live in the world - we had few ties, money in the bank and could choose anywhere to live. In my case though I'm quite pragmatic - I'm happy wherever I happen to be, so moving or staying just isn't a big deal for me.

So, please don't think you have to attack me, or defend anything. I'm just observing that you really don't seem very happy here and that as an internationally aware guy, you really have the pick of the world to choose from.

[Cobnapint]

Murph7355 said:

Cobnapint said:

This.

Whenever an EU representative stands in Brussels and says they don't want to punish the UK for Brexit, you know they are lying through their teeth.

Any deal that that has the slightest hint of NOT being disadvantageous to the UK will be seen as a green light for others to consider leaving. And for Germany in particular, that is a no-no.

I've said before, keeping the EU together is a far bigger priority for Germany and France than selling a few BMWs, Audi's, Mercs and Renaults. It is they that will be the sacrificial lambs in these negotiations. Prepare for WTO tariffs folks.

Others have referred to this, but this is a very risky strategy. It's not dissimilar to Cameron calling the referendum or May calling the election. But with knobs on.

They can only control a small part of our ability to generate wealth/income. A diminishing portion too.

If they are seen to punish the UK, one of three outcomes happens

- the UK does badly. This is what they might want, but.... We're a hefty trade partner of theirs and this would hurt them too. But they at least get their victory

- the UK does the same and/or any benefit/deficit cannot be proven. Not good for them. They try their hardest to penalise. It doesn't work. Other countries disincentivised?

- the UK does well/takes off. Worst possible outcome. Far from working, punishment benefits us.

Only one of those outcomes is as they would want and even then far from ideal/desirable. And the likelihood is that won't come to pass anyway. It's a foolhardy approach IMO (as was Cameron's, as was May's. They were all downside against what they wanted to achieve).

The only way the EU can salvage this now IMO is to paint truly positive messages about membership, make it clear that the UK is different as it's not in the Euro and has always been a thorn anyway, be seen to give a sensible deal and then take some credit if the more positive outcomes ensue.

They can't do this though. Their political motivations and ego get in the way. And they desperately need our cash to keep the thing chugging along.

The EU is a gradeA st show. And will be another great example, if the world needed one, of how to take something too far.

[Mark Benson]

Sheets Tabuer said:

Atomic12C said:

I keep hearing people want a "soft brexit"... please can somebody define what this is?

It's not leaving.

It's whatever the speaker thinks it means. Essentially it's 'not WTO rules' but it's also used to encourage thinking that WTO rules would be a uniformly bad thing, ie. hard=bad, soft=good.

For many I think it means access to the single market in some way. But this is unlikely to be something the EU would allow without significant compromise, hence the Brexiteers suspecting that it's being used as a smokescreen for 'not leaving' as the conditions for access could include some or all the things people voted to leave behind.

I do think there's an element on the Remain side to use the soft Brexit subject to water down any terms such that leaving becomes unappealing, for others I think it's just an extension of Project Fear.

If only we could all just get on with things.

As with the campaign, whether leaving on WTO rules or not is an unalloyed bad thing is lost in the hyperbole and cherry picked figures you choose to believe - certainly we'd pay more for our VWs and Chateauneuf, but if negotiations went well with Japan and Australia, we may have a Lexus/Barossa alternative which is cheaper than it was.

The problem for me is - all the formerly authoritative figures I would have looked to prior to the vote were telling us we would be in a recession by now and we're clearly not, so they were either wrong or duplicitous, either way I can't now trust them to give me a serious financial picture of post Brexit Britain on WTO rules.

[loafer123]

WTO tariffs average 4%. The currency has dropped more than that, and would drop further on the uncertainty of a Clean Brexit, so our exporters would still be more competitive than ever.

In any event, one of my businesses could import from suppliers in the US or Germany and we choose to do so from the US as the price is better and not even close to being offset by import duties, presumably due to a less competitive environment in Europe.

[mjb1]

Atomic12C said:

I keep hearing people want a "soft brexit"... please can somebody define what this is?
Not after a concise point by point definition - but just some rough pointers would be good - because surely in a negotiation each side is expected to negotiate to a compromise position.
So the value of stating a soft or hard brexit holds little weight. No?

Edited by Atomic12C on Tuesday 27th June 15:25

Soft brexit/hard Brexit - it' not really defined anywhere and is totally relative to your own viewpoint. Soft brexit could be anything between saying "ok we'll leave, but we'll keep all the trade, economic, political status quo" (so basically not leaving at all), all the way up to a leaving with no deal at all. Hard brexit could be defined as walking away tomorrow, sticking two fingers up to the EU, and telling them we don't even want to negotiate on a deal at one extreme, to doing a deal that is better for the UK than staying in (a conclusion that I can't see as being possible at all, especially given the EU's current stance of brushing off every offer so far).

In an ideal world, yes, both sides would make some concessions and we'd reach a compromise somewhere in the middle. But the EU won't do that, they've made it clear that they don't want to make any compromise at all, in fact they're going the other way if anything (e.g. the 'brexit bill' - gets bigger every time they mention it).

I'm a believer in letting nature take it's course - leaving with 'no deal' in place and letting everything find it's own equilibrium. In fact, the UK govt. should be talking to other countries outside the EU about trade deals, and making that well known. Even if that's just posturing/bluffing at this stage. It's all a great big game of poker, with very large stakes.

[Mark Benson]

mjb1 said:

In fact, the UK govt. should be talking to other countries outside the EU about trade deals, and making that well known. Even if that's just posturing/bluffing at this stage. It's all a great big game of poker, with very large stakes.

I think we should be very publicly doing deals with whichever country wants one. Japan the other day I believe. Make it nice and simple, not too many tariffs and get a whole slew of them on the table - if we get a good deal from the EU then great, if we don't then Lexus and Barossa all round.

It's against EU rules but what are they going to do, kick us out?

Something needs to get the talks moving and sharpen the minds of those involved - we're already talking about an 'interim period' which to me sounds like we've accepted the EU's superior negotiating position and our subservient role in all this.

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

Really your responses are so team leave. I am not leaving at the moment for the same reasons I did not leave when GB was PM. Is your idea that everyone who disagrees fundamentally with the government’s actions should leave the country?

You really are misunderstanding. It's a genuine question, not meant to offend or suggest anything. I'm just asking - from your posts on here you appear not to like anything about the UK, and like the future even less. Your wife is not a British citizen, made all the more complicated by the changes in the residency rules. From an outsider's point of view, I really can't see what's keeping you here? As I said, I know plenty of people who've left and I'm very happy for them - they found the part of the world that suited their particular lifestyles and beliefs. That seems a wholly positive thing to me.

My in-laws lived full time outside the UK and Europe, and at one point some years ago I did spend some time weighing up the options of all the places my partner and I could live in the world - we had few ties, money in the bank and could choose anywhere to live. In my case though I'm quite pragmatic - I'm happy wherever I happen to be, so moving or staying just isn't a big deal for me.

So, please don't think you have to attack me, or defend anything. I'm just observing that you really don't seem very happy here and that as an internationally aware guy, you really have the pick of the world to choose from.

Maybe I was being a bit defensive. My question to you is why do you think I hate the UK? I may be very unhappy the way the brexit buffoons are running brexit. I may hate the way TM says she is protecting EU citizens rights and then immediately does something completely different. I am not sure disagreeing with the government means you hate your country.

As for leaving I am near retirement and expect I will be moving from the Uk when I do. Again that’s not because I hate the UK but that I can enjoy a better life style.

[Murph7355]

loafer123 said:

WTO tariffs average 4%. The currency has dropped more than that, and would drop further on the uncertainty of a Clean Brexit, so our exporters would still be more competitive than ever.

In any event, one of my businesses could import from suppliers in the US or Germany and we choose to do so from the US as the price is better and not even close to being offset by import duties, presumably due to a less competitive environment in Europe.

All well and good loafer, but you are forgetting the fact that once we leave it will take 400yrs to get anything through the border with the EU.

You evidently do not understand the complexities if you think otherwise.

[Mrr T]

Murph7355 said:

loafer123 said:

WTO tariffs average 4%. The currency has dropped more than that, and would drop further on the uncertainty of a Clean Brexit, so our exporters would still be more competitive than ever.

In any event, one of my businesses could import from suppliers in the US or Germany and we choose to do so from the US as the price is better and not even close to being offset by import duties, presumably due to a less competitive environment in Europe.

All well and good loafer, but you are forgetting the fact that once we leave it will take 400yrs to get anything through the border with the EU.

You evidently do not understand the complexities if you think otherwise.

I would suggest ignoring all relevant research allows you to ignore the complexities.

[AC43]

handpaper said:

If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.

Rightio ho. I'll just pop down to the City of London and let them know that all the banks will be OK now.

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

I would suggest ignoring all relevant research allows you to ignore the complexities.

There is no relevant research. It's all opinion based on people's current prejudices. No-one knows what will happen because we've not done this before.

There's a whole lot of "This will be difficult because this is the way we do these things", but it sounds exactly the same as the people who said that 'research' had shown there would be an immediate and catastrophic recession, that we'd need an emergency budget and that we'd lose London as a financial center.

Bloomberg said:

London’s place as a leading global financial center looks safe. Ever since Britain voted to leave the European Union, analysts have debated the City’s fate… Fortunately for the U.K., Brexit itself won’t erode the significant advantages London currently enjoys. Perhaps more importantly, neither will it help European rivals build up similar advantages… These conditions aren’t easily replicated… [London’s] competitive advantages are substantial — and won’t be easily eroded even by a hard Brexit.

This is the same organisation that said 71% of Economists were certain the opposite was true. As did people on this site - claiming that it just couldn't happen that London would still be a global financial centre.

So when someone tells me there is 'research', it's hard not to think they are making things up. I'd suggest that whilst the heads of Europe may want to make a point, the millions of people and businesses that trade with the UK just want to get on with trade and business - and would be pretty unhappy if some idiot bureaucrat didn't get their finger out and make it happen. If we've agreed a trade deal or fallen back on WTO, then any prevarication is just going to annoy people - and it'll make them look incredibly stupid to try to make a point after the negotiations have completed, whatever the outcome.